Daily i-forex-report31-july-2013

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  • 1. WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 7316642300 DAILY I FOREX REPORT 31st JULY 2013
  • 2. WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 7316642300  Aussie Dollar Sinks As Soft Data Boosts RBA Rate Cut Bets  Aussie Slammed as RBA Rate Cut Odds Jump; Euro Steady After Spanish GDP ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP The Japanese Yen, the Swiss Franc, and the US Dollar – the “safe haven” bloc – are among the top performers for the second day in a row as global risk aversion gathers pace once more ahead of several significant events that will reverberate across the FX landscape. Consequently, high beta and risk-correlated assets such as the Australian Dollar are getting slammed today; the Aussie has lost over -2% to the US Dollar since Friday’s close. The impetus for today’s slide in the Aussie comes on the back of the worst Building Approvals since August 2012, and the sharp downturn seen from April-June (+35.0% to -13.0% y/y) is very reminiscent of housing data seen at the end of 2008. While there was a 44% chance of a 25-bps rate cut at the end of the July meeting week, there is now a 92% of a 25-bps rate cut for the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting this coming Tuesday. In the event of a rate cut next week, I still believe that the RBA will cut rates one more time in 2013, to bring the main rate to 2.00%. Accordingly, the Australian Dollar selloff might not be finished despite the consolidation seen in the AUDUSD the past month-plus. Elsewhere, the Euro’s case for a strong week was bolstered as the Spanish GDP (2Q A) report beat expectations slightly, affirming the mild uptick in data seen in May and June. This week, the Euro could be a top performer if the cards fall right; next up is the ECB on Thursday. TRADING TIPS  BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3300 TGT 1.3320/1.3340 SL 1.3270  SELL USDJPY BELOW 97.60 TGT 97.40/97.20 SL 97.90  SELL GBPUSD BELOW 1.5300 TGT 1.5300/1.5280 SL 1.5330 HEADLINES
  • 3.  HOURLY EURUSD CHARTHOURLY EURUSD CHART ANALYSIS EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0030 (BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 60(BULLISH SIGNAL) www.epicresearch.co + 91 7316642300
  • 4. HOURLY USDJPY CHART www.epicresearch.co + 91 7316642300 ANALYSIS USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.10(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>39(BEARISH SIGNAL)
  • 5. HOURLY GBPUSD CHART www.epicresearch.co + 91 7316642300 ANALYSIS GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0002(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>39(BEARISH SIGNAL)
  • 6. www.epicresearch.co + 91 7316642300 HOURLY EURGBP CHART ANALYSIS EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>72(BULLISH SIGNAL)
  • 7. HOURLY USD INDEX CHART ANALYSIS USD INDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARIISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0138(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>38(BEARISH SIGNAL)
  • 8. Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes Sun Jul 28 05:55 CNY Leading Index (JUN) Medium 99.55 99.72 23:01 GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.3% 0.4% 23:01 GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (JUL) Medium 1.3% 0.8% 23:50 JPY Large Retailers' Sales (JUN) Medium 3.5% 3.6% -0.4% 23:50 JPY Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (JUN) Low -0.2% 0.8% 1.5% 23:50 JPY Retail Trade (YoY) (JUN) Medium 1.6% 2.1% 0.8% Mon Jul 29 03:30 JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks at Research Insitute of Japan High 08:30 GBP Net Consumer Credit (JUN) Medium 0.5B 0.7B 0.8B 08:30 GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (JUN) Low 1.0B 0.7B 0.5B 08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals (JUN) Medium 57.7K 59.7K 58.1K 08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (JUN) Low 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (JUN) Low 1.5% -0.1% 08:30 GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (JUN) Low 4.7% 4.4% 4.4% 10:00 GBP CBI Reported Sales (JUL) Low 17 10 1 14:00 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (JUN) Low -1.0% 6.7% 14:00 USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (JUN) Medium 11.5% 12.5% 14:30 USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (JUL) Low 7.3 6.5 21:00 USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update Low 22:45 NZD Building Permits (MoM) (JUN) Low 1.3% ECONOMIC CALLENDER
  • 9. 23:30 JPY Household Spending (YoY) (JUN) Medium 1.3% -1.6% 23:30 JPY Jobless Rate (JUN) Medium 4.0% 4.1% 23:30 JPY Job-To-Applicant Ratio (JUN) Low 0.91 0.90 23:50 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN P) Low -1.5% 1.9% 23:50 JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN P) Medium -2.9% -1.1% Tue Jul 30 01:30 AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (JUN) Low 2.0% -1.1% 01:30 AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (JUN) Medium 0.0% -3.2% 04:00 JPY Vehicle Production (YoY) (JUN) Low -6.2% 05:00 JPY Small Business Confidence (JUL) Medium 49.6 06:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (AUG) Medium 6.9 6.8 07:00 LIVE EUR Spanish GDP (QoQ) (2Q A) Low -0.1% -0.5% 07:00 LIVE EUR Spanish GDP (YoY) (2Q A) Medium -1.8% -2.0% 08:30 GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (JUL) Low 36 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (JUL) Low 92.5 91.3 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (JUL) Low -0.54 -0.68 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (JUL) Low -10.2 -11.2 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (JUL F) Medium -17.4 -17.4 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence (JUL) Low -8.9 -9.5 12:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUL P) Medium 0.3% 0.1% 12:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL P) High 1.7% 1.8% 12:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JUL P) Medium 0.3% 0.1% 12:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JUL P) High 1.8% 1.9% 12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM) (JUN) Low 0.1% 0.0% 12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index (MoM) (JUN) Low 0.3% 0.2%
  • 10. 13:00 USD S&P/CS 20 City s.a. (MoM) (MAY) Low 1.5% 1.7% 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (MAY) Low 12.4% 12.1% 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (MAY) Low 152.37 14:00 USD Consumer Confidence (JUL) High 81.0 81.4 23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (JUL) Low -0.2% 23:05 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JUL) Medium -19 -21 23:15 JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (JUL) Medium 52.3 23:50 JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (JUN) Low 2.06% Wed Jul 31 USD Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting High 01:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence (JUL) Low 50.1 01:00 NZD ANZ Activity Outlook (JUL) Low 45 01:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JUN) Low 0.1% 0.0% 01:30 AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JUN) Low 0.3% 0.3% 01:30 AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JUN) Medium 2.9% 3.0% 03:00 NZD Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JUN) Low 6.2% 05:00 JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (JUN) Medium 16.0% 14.5% 05:00 JPY Annualized Housing Starts (JUN) Medium 0.982M 1.027M 05:00 JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (JUN) Low 26.0% 06:00 EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN) Low 0.2% 0.8% 06:00 EUR German Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN) Medium 0.5% 0.4% 06:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator (JUN) Medium 1.46 07:00 CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (JUL) Medium 1.22 1.16 07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change (JUL) High 0K -12K 07:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUL) High 6.8% 6.8%
  • 11. 08:00 EUR Italian Unemployment Rate (JUN P) Medium 12.3% 12.2% 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (JUL A) High 1.2% 1.2% 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (JUL) Medium 1.6% 1.6% 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JUN) Medium 12.2% 12.1% 11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 26) Low -1.2% 12:15 USD ADP Employment Change (JUL) Medium 180K 188K 12:30 USD Bureau of Economic Analysis Release Annual Revisions of GDP Medium 12:30 CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (MAY) Medium 0.3% 0.1% 12:30 CAD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (MAY) High 1.6% 1.4% 12:30 USD Employment Cost Index (2Q) Low 0.4% 0.3% 12:30 LIVE USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (2Q A) High 1.0% 1.8% 12:30 USD Personal Consumption (2Q A) Medium 1.6% 2.6% 12:30 USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (2Q A) High 1.0% 1.2% 12:30 USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (2Q A) Medium 1.1% 1.3% 13:00 USD NAPM-Milwaukee (JUL) Low 52.0 51.6 13:45 USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (JUL) Medium 54.0 51.6 14:30 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUL 26) Low -2825K 14:30 USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (JUL 26) Low -2060K 14:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JUL 26) Low -1389K 14:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (JUL 26) Low -1227K 18:00 USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision (JUL 31) High 0.25% 0.25% 23:30 AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (JUL) Medium 49.6 23:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (JUL 26) Medium ¥549.3B 23:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (JUL 26) Medium -¥56.7B
  • 12. 23:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (JUL 26) Low ¥790.3B 23:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (JUL 26) Low ¥349.8B Thu Aug 1 00:00 AUD RPData/Rismark House Px (MoM) (JUL) Low 1.9% JPY Official Reserve Assets (JUL) Low $1238.7B 01:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI (JUL) High 49.8 50.1 01:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (JUN) Medium 1.6% 01:30 AUD Import Price Index (QoQ) (2Q) Low 2.0% 0.0% 01:30 AUD Export Price Index (QoQ) (2Q) Low 0.3% 2.8% 01:45 CNY HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI (JUL) Medium 47.7 48.2 05:00 JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (JUL) Low -15.8% 06:30 AUD Commodity Index (JUL) Low 88.9 06:30 AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (JUL) Low -10.5% 07:45 EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL) Low 49.7 49.1 07:50 EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL F) Low 49.8 49.8 07:55 EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL F) Medium 50.3 50.3 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL F) Medium 50.1 50.1 08:30 GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL) Medium 52.8 52.5 11:00 LIVE GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (AUG 1) High 0.50% 0.50% 11:00 LIVE GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (AUG) High 375B 375B 11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (JUL) Low 4.8% 11:30 USD RBC Consumer Outlook Index (AUG) Low 50.7 11:45 LIVE EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (AUG 1) High 0.50% 0.50% 11:45 LIVE EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (AUG 1) Medium 0.00% 0.00%
  • 13. 12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 27) Medium 344K 343K 12:30 USD Continuing Claims (JUL 20) Low 3000K 2997K 12:58 USD Markit US PMI Final (JUL) Medium 53.2 14:00 USD Construction Spending (MoM) (JUN) Medium 0.4% 0.5% 14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing (JUL) High 52.0 50.9 14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid (JUL) Medium 54.0 52.5 14:30 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (JUL 26) Low 41 21:00 USD Total Vehicle Sales (JUL) Low 15.80M 15.89M 21:00 USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (JUL) Low 12.40M 12.43M 23:50 JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (JUL) Medium 36.00% 23:50 JPY Monetary Base End of period (JUL) Medium ¥173.1T Fri Aug 2 GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.6% GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (JUL) Low 3.7% 01:30 AUD Producer Price Index (QoQ) (2Q) Low 0.3% 01:30 AUD Producer Price Index (YoY) (2Q) Medium 1.6% 06:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.4% 0.3% 06:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (JUL) Medium 3.1% 1.9% 07:30 CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (JUL) Medium 52.5 51.9 08:30 GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (JUL) Medium 51.5 51 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (JUN) Low 0.0% -0.3% 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) Medium 0.3% -0.1% 12:30 LIVE USD Change in Non- farm Payrolls (JUL) High 185K 195K 12:30 USD Change in Private Payrolls (JUL) Medium 187K 202K 12:30 USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (JUL) Low 0K -6K
  • 14. 12:30 LIVE USD Unemployment Rate (JUL) High 7.5% 7.6% 12:30 USD Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (JUL) Medium 12:30 USD Change in Household Employment (JUL) Medium 160 12:30 USD Underemployment Rate (JUL) Medium 14.3% 12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.2% 0.4% 12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (JUL) Medium 2.2% 2.2% 12:30 USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (JUL) Low 34.5 34.5 12:30 USD Personal Income (JUN) Medium 0.4% 0.5% 12:30 USD Personal Spending (JUN) Medium 0.5% 0.3% 12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (JUN) Low 0.4% 0.1% 12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (JUN) Low 1.3% 1.0% 12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (JUN) Low 0.1% 0.1% 12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (JUN) Medium 1.1% 1.1% 12:30 USD Personal Income and Spending Annual Revisions Low 13:45 USD ISM New York (JUL) Low 47 14:00 USD Factory Orders (JUN) Medium 2.3% 2.1% 16:15 USD Fed's Bullard Speaks on U.S. Economy in Boston Low Sat Aug 3 01:00 CNY Non- manufacturing PMI (JUL) Medium 53.9
  • 15. www.epicresearch.co + 91 7316642300 Disclaimer The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Epic research recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Epic research shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE. The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to epic research might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for . Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer. All Rights Reserved. Investment in equity & bullion market has its own risks. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. we are not responsible for any loss incurred whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above epic research does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken.