Daily i-forex-report-30-aug-2013
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Daily i-forex-report-30-aug-2013 Daily i-forex-report-30-aug-2013 Document Transcript

  • DAILY IFOREX REPORT 30th AUG 2013
  •  Video: Euro Trading Opportunities After The German Labor Report  US Dollar Continues Climb amid Emerging Markets Rebound; Yields Up ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP The US Dollar has emerged as the top performed for the second consecutive day (at the time this report was written) amid cooling fears over emerging markets and potential joint military action by the United States, the United Kingdom, and France against Syria. Whereas stocks and FX had been largely following the performance of US Treasuries the past two weeks, already the past two days there are signs of this relationship slipping. Indeed, even as the US Dollar has rebounded alongside slightly higher US Treasury yields – the 10-year note yield has increased from a low of 2.720% on Tuesday to 2.780% today – investors aren’t treating the move as a sign the world is ending. Instead, the rebound in US yields suggests that investors are calming down: nervous market participants scrambled back into US Treasuries to start this week. Today, the slight unwinding of US Treasuries is a function of investors being less worried about keeping their capital safe; not QE3 taper speculation. It is worth noting that trading today could easily flip from ‘the world isn’t so bad’ to ‘the world is ending’ once more, but this time in a beneficial manner to the US Dollar. The second 2Q’13 US GDP report will be released today, and consensus forecasts see growth having improved to +2.2% annualized versus +1.7% prior. A ‘meet’ or ‘beat’ of this figure (>+2.2%) would put the US economy right on the Federal Reserve’s forecasted growth track, and could jumpstart ‘Septaper’ speculation. A miss here would likely provoke a retrenchment in US yields, and provoking the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index to shed its weekly gains. TRADING TIPS  SELL EURUSD BELOW 1.3240 TGT 1.3220/1.3190 SL 1.3270  SELL USDJPY BELOW 98.20 TGT 98.00/97.70 SL 98.50  SELL GBPUSD BELOW 1.5500 TGT 1.5480/1.5450 SL 1.5530 HEADLINES
  •  HOURLY EURUSD CHARTHOURLY EURUSD CHART ANALYSIS EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0003(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 36(BEARISH SIGNAL) View slide
  • HOURLY USDJPY CHART ANALYSIS USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.10(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>65(BULLISH SIGNAL) View slide
  • HOURLY GBPUSD CHART ANALYSIS GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>21(BEARISH SIGNAL)
  • HOURLY EURGBP CHART ANALYSIS EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>70(BULLISH SIGNAL)
  • HOURLY USD INDEX CHART ANALYSIS USD INDEX LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>63(BULLISH SIGNAL)
  • Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes Sun Aug 25 22:45 NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (JUL) Medium -1688M -956M -816M 22:45 NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (JUL) Medium -774M -16M 374M 22:45 NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (JUL) Low 3.85B 3.90B 4.01B 22:45 NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (JUL) Low 4.62B 3.90B 3.63B 23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY) (JUL) Low 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% Mon Aug 26 JPY Japan Economic Panel Meets on Sales Tax Increase (26-31) Medium 08:00 ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks on Euro Economy Medium 12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (JUL) High -4.0% 3.9% 12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation (JUL) Medium 0.5% -0.1% 12:30 USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (JUL) Low 0.5% 0.9% 12:30 USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (JUL) Low 0.3% -0.9% 14:30 USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (AUG) Low 3.9 4.4 21:00 USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update Low Tue Aug 27 01:30 CNY Industrial Profits YTD (YoY) (JUL) Low 11.1% 05:00 JPY Small Business Confidence (AUG) Medium 49.4 08:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate (AUG) Medium 107 106.2 08:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment (AUG) Medium 111 110.1 08:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations (AUG) Medium 103.1 102.4 10:50 USD Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in Sweden Low 11:00 EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks In Gothenburg, Sweden Low 13:00 USD S&P/CS 20 City s.a. (MoM) (JUN) Low 1.0% 1.1% 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (JUN) Low 12.1% 12.2% ECONOMIC CALLENDER
  • 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (JUN) Low 159.40 156.14 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (2Q) Low 136.7 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (YoY) (2Q) Low 10.2% 14:00 LIVE USD Consumer Confidence (AUG) High 79.0 80.3 14:00 USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (AUG) Low 0 -11 Wed Aug 28 CNY Leading Index (JUL) Medium 99.55 00:00 AUD CBAHIA House Affordability (2Q) Low 69.7 GBP Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (AUG) Low 0.6% 0.8% JPY BoJ Deputy Governor Iwata Speak at Kyoto Chamber of Commerce Low 01:30 AUD Construction Work Done (2Q) Low 1.0% -2.0% 06:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator (JUL) Medium 1.44 06:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (SEP) Medium 7.1 7.0 06:00 EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.3% -0.8% 06:00 EUR German Import Price Index (YoY) (JUL) Low -2.5% -2.2% 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3M) (JUL) Low 2.4% 2.8% 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (JUL) Low 2.0% 2.3% 10:00 GBP CBI Reported Sales (AUG) Low 20 17 11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 23) Low -4.6% 12:30 CAD Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (JUN) Low 2.5% 12:45 GBP Bank of England Governor Carney to Speak on U.K. Economy Medium 14:00 USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (JUL) Medium 9.1% 14:00 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.0% -0.4% 14:30 USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (AUG 23) Low -1090K 14:30 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (AUG 23) Low -1428K
  • 14:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (AUG 23) Low 871K 14:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (AUG 23) Low -4029K 23:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (AUG 23) Medium -¥903.8B 23:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (AUG 23) Medium -¥3.0B 23:50 JPY Large Retailers' Sales (JUL) Medium -0.5% 3.5% 23:50 JPY Retail Trade (YoY) (JUL) Medium -0.3% 1.6% 23:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (AUG 23) Low ¥38.7B 23:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (AUG 23) Low ¥47.9B 23:50 JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (JUL) Low 1.7% 23:50 JPY Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (JUL) Low -1.0% -0.2% Thu Aug 29 01:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (JUL) Medium 3.4% 01:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence (AUG) Medium 52.8 01:00 NZD ANZ Activity Outlook (AUG) Low 43.7 01:30 AUD Private Capital Expenditure (2Q) Low 0.0% -4.7% 01:30 JPY BOJ Board Member Morimoto Speech Low 07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change (AUG) High -5K -7K 07:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. (AUG) High 6.8% 6.8% 08:30 GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (AUG) Low 41 12:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (AUG P) High 1.7% 1.9% 12:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG P) High 1.7% 1.9% 12:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (AUG P) Medium 0.1% 0.4% 12:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG P) Medium 0.1% 0.5% 12:30 USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (2Q S) Medium 0.8% 0.8%
  • 12:30 USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (2Q S) Medium 2.2% 1.7% 12:30 USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (2Q S) Medium 0.7% 0.7% 12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 23) Medium 330K 12:30 USD Personal Consumption (2Q S) Medium 1.8% 1.8% 12:30 CAD Current Account (BoP) (Canadian dollar) (2Q) Low -$14.8B -$14.1B 12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.3% 0.3% 12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.7% 0.3% 12:30 USD Continuing Claims (AUG 17) Low 2990K 2990K 12:50 USD Fed's Bullard to Speak to Leadership Memphis Low 14:30 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (AUG 23) Low 57 18:00 USD Fed's Lacker Speaks in Virginia Low 22:45 NZD Building Permits (MoM) (JUL) Medium 1.3% -4.0% 23:05 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (AUG) Medium -14 -16 23:15 JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (AUG) Medium 50.7 23:30 LIVE JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) High 0.7% 0.2% 23:30 JPY Household Spending (YoY) (JUL) Medium 0.2% -0.4% 23:30 LIVE JPY Jobless Rate (JUL) Medium 3.9% 3.9% 23:30 JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUL) Medium 0.6% 0.4% 23:30 JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUL) Medium -0.2% -0.2% 23:30 JPY Job-To-Applicant Ratio (JUL) Low 0.93 0.92 23:30 JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (AUG) Low 0.4% 0.3% 23:30 JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (AUG) Low -0.3% -0.4% 23:30 JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) Low 0.5% 0.4% 23:45 USD Fed's James Bullard to Speak on U.S. Economy Medium
  • 23:50 JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL P) Medium 1.8% -4.6% 23:50 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL P) Low 3.7% -3.1% Fri Aug 30 01:30 AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JUL) Medium 3.1% 3.1% 01:30 AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.4% 0.4% 01:45 CNY MNI August Business Sentiment Indicator Low 03:00 NZD Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JUL) Low 6.2% 04:00 JPY Vehicle Production (YoY) (JUL) Low -9.5% 05:00 JPY Annualized Housing Starts (JUL) Medium 0.996M 0.976M 05:00 JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (JUL) Medium 14.3% 15.3% 05:00 JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (JUL) Low 21.9% 06:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG) Medium 3.3% 3.9% 06:00 EUR German Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL) Medium 1.7% -2.8% 06:00 EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.6% -1.5% 07:00 CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (AUG) Medium 1.33 1.23 08:00 EUR Italian Unemployment Rate (JUL P) Low 12.2% 12.1% 08:00 EUR Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (2Q) Low 12.1% 11.9% 08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals (JUL) Medium 59.0K 57.7K 08:30 GBP Net Consumer Credit (JUL) Medium 0.7B 0.5B 08:30 GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (JUL) Low 3.9% 4.7% 08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.1% 08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (JUL) Low 1.5% 08:30 GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (JUL) Low 1.2B 1.0B 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (AUG A) High 1.1% 1.1% 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (AUG F) Medium
  • 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (AUG) Medium 1.4% 1.6% 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JUL) Medium 12.1% 12.1% 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (AUG) Low -0.36 -0.53 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (AUG) Low 93.8 92.5 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (AUG) Low -9.6 -10.6 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence (AUG) Low -6.7 -7.8 12:30 LIVE CAD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (JUN) High 1.6% 12:30 LIVE CAD Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized (2Q) High 1.6% 2.5% 12:30 LIVE CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (JUN) Medium -0.5% 0.2% 12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (JUL) Medium 1.3% 1.2% 12:30 USD Personal Income (JUL) Medium 0.2% 0.3% 12:30 USD Personal Spending (JUL) Medium 0.3% 0.5% 12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.2% 0.2% 12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.2% 0.4% 12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (JUL) Low 1.5% 1.3% 13:00 USD Fed's Bullard to Speak on U.S. Economy in Memphis Low 13:00 USD NAPM-Milwaukee (AUG) Low 52.43 13:45 USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (AUG) Medium 53.0 52.3 13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence (AUG F) Medium 80.5 80.0
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