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Daily i-forex-report-29-august-2013

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Epic Research is a leading financial services provider with presence in Indian and other global capital markets. Provides MCX Tips, Stock Tips, Forex Tips , NCDEX Tips, Share Tips, commodity tips free …

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  • 1. DAILY IFOREX REPORT 29th AUG 2013
  • 2.  FX Headlines: British Pound At Risk With Carney’s Speech Looking Dovish  Global Selling Persists but Yen Eases; Pound Down Before Carney ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index is scrapping back some of its losses yesterday and now appears to be forming a minor Bull Flag on the daily chart. Whereas the Australian Dollar, the British Pound, and the Euro have all been cooperating with the US Dollar’s attempt to strengthen, the simple demand for liquidity amid risk-aversion has prevented any such progress against the Japanese Yen. Today, the USDJPY has started to take back some of its losses from Tuesday, but gains have been limited as pressure on emerging markets remains. It seems that a negative feedback loop is setting in, driving down investor sentiment and exacerbating stress in markets around the world: Certainly, the global selloff has hardly reached the European currencies, which have turned into a near-term safe haven of sorts amid turmoil in the commodity currency complex. But the British Pound today especially is vulnerable to a setback. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will give his first policy speech today, and in light of recent price action in the British Pound and UK Gilts, we are expecting a dovish tone to be struck. In the Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR) released earlier this month, economic “circuit breakers” were identified that would signal a wind down of the BoE’s easing program. While the initial commentary from Governor Carney may prove to be dovish, it will take a concerted shift in his policy stance – even more dovish – in order for the desire effect to be achieved: softer UK yields. Accordingly, barring an overtly dovish tone, it is possible that the Sterling sets up an opportunity to buy the dip later today. TRADING TIPS  SELL EURUSD BELOW 1.3320 TGT 1.3300/1.3280 SL 1.3350  SELL USDJPY BELOW 97.20 TGT 97.00/96.70 SL 97.50  SELL GBPUSD BELOW 1.5450 TGT 1.5430/1.5400 SL 1.5480 HEADLINES
  • 3.  HOURLY EURUSD CHARTHOURLY EURUSD CHART ANALYSIS EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0003(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 36(BEARISH SIGNAL)
  • 4. HOURLY USDJPY CHART ANALYSIS USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARDRD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.10(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>50(BEARISH SIGNAL)
  • 5. HOURLY GBPUSD CHART ANALYSIS GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>21(BEARISH SIGNAL)
  • 6. HOURLY EURGBP CHART ANALYSIS EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>70(BULLISH SIGNAL)
  • 7. HOURLY USD INDEX CHART ANALYSIS USD INDEX LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>63(BULLISH SIGNAL)
  • 8. Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes Sun Aug 25 22:45 NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (JUL) Medium -1688M -956M -816M 22:45 NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (JUL) Medium -774M -16M 374M 22:45 NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (JUL) Low 3.85B 3.90B 4.01B 22:45 NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (JUL) Low 4.62B 3.90B 3.63B 23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY) (JUL) Low 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% Mon Aug 26 JPY Japan Economic Panel Meets on Sales Tax Increase (26-31) Medium 08:00 ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks on Euro Economy Medium 12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (JUL) High -4.0% 3.9% 12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation (JUL) Medium 0.5% -0.1% 12:30 USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (JUL) Low 0.5% 0.9% 12:30 USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (JUL) Low 0.3% -0.9% 14:30 USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (AUG) Low 3.9 4.4 21:00 USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update Low Tue Aug 27 01:30 CNY Industrial Profits YTD (YoY) (JUL) Low 11.1% 05:00 JPY Small Business Confidence (AUG) Medium 49.4 08:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate (AUG) Medium 107 106.2 08:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment (AUG) Medium 111 110.1 ECONOMIC CALLENDER
  • 9. 08:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations (AUG) Medium 103.1 102.4 10:50 USD Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in Sweden Low 11:00 EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks In Gothenburg, Sweden Low 13:00 USD S&P/CS 20 City s.a. (MoM) (JUN) Low 1.0% 1.1% 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (JUN) Low 12.1% 12.2% 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (JUN) Low 159.40 156.14 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (2Q) Low 136.7 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (YoY) (2Q) Low 10.2% 14:00 LIVE USD Consumer Confidence (AUG) High 79.0 80.3 14:00 USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (AUG) Low 0 -11 Wed Aug 28 CNY Leading Index (JUL) Medium 99.55 00:00 AUD CBAHIA House Affordability (2Q) Low 69.7 GBP Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (AUG) Low 0.6% 0.8% JPY BoJ Deputy Governor Iwata Speak at Kyoto Chamber of Commerce Low 01:30 AUD Construction Work Done (2Q) Low 1.0% -2.0% 06:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator (JUL) Medium 1.44 06:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (SEP) Medium 7.1 7.0 06:00 EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.3% -0.8% 06:00 EUR German Import Price Index (YoY) (JUL) Low -2.5% -2.2% 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3M) (JUL) Low 2.4% 2.8% 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (JUL) Low 2.0% 2.3% 10:00 GBP CBI Reported Sales (AUG) Low 20 17 11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 23) Low -4.6% 12:30 CAD Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (JUN) Low 2.5%
  • 10. 12:45 GBP Bank of England Governor Carney to Speak on U.K. Economy Medium 14:00 USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (JUL) Medium 9.1% 14:00 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.0% -0.4% 14:30 USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (AUG 23) Low -1090K 14:30 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (AUG 23) Low -1428K 14:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (AUG 23) Low 871K 14:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (AUG 23) Low -4029K 23:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (AUG 23) Medium -¥903.8B 23:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (AUG 23) Medium -¥3.0B 23:50 JPY Large Retailers' Sales (JUL) Medium -0.5% 3.5% 23:50 JPY Retail Trade (YoY) (JUL) Medium -0.3% 1.6% 23:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (AUG 23) Low ¥38.7B 23:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (AUG 23) Low ¥47.9B 23:50 JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (JUL) Low 1.7% 23:50 JPY Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (JUL) Low -1.0% -0.2% Thu Aug 29 01:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (JUL) Medium 3.4% 01:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence (AUG) Medium 52.8 01:00 NZD ANZ Activity Outlook (AUG) Low 43.7 01:30 AUD Private Capital Expenditure (2Q) Low 0.0% -4.7% 01:30 JPY BOJ Board Member Morimoto Speech Low 07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change (AUG) High -5K -7K 07:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. (AUG) High 6.8% 6.8% 08:30 GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (AUG) Low 41 12:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (AUG P) High 1.7% 1.9%
  • 11. 12:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG P) High 1.7% 1.9% 12:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (AUG P) Medium 0.1% 0.4% 12:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG P) Medium 0.1% 0.5% 12:30 USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (2Q S) Medium 0.8% 0.8% 12:30 USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (2Q S) Medium 2.2% 1.7% 12:30 USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (2Q S) Medium 0.7% 0.7% 12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 23) Medium 330K 12:30 USD Personal Consumption (2Q S) Medium 1.8% 1.8% 12:30 CAD Current Account (BoP) (Canadian dollar) (2Q) Low -$14.8B -$14.1B 12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.3% 0.3% 12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.7% 0.3% 12:30 USD Continuing Claims (AUG 17) Low 2990K 2990K 12:50 USD Fed's Bullard to Speak to Leadership Memphis Low 14:30 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (AUG 23) Low 57 18:00 USD Fed's Lacker Speaks in Virginia Low 22:45 NZD Building Permits (MoM) (JUL) Medium 1.3% -4.0% 23:05 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (AUG) Medium -14 -16 23:15 JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (AUG) Medium 50.7 23:30 LIVE JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) High 0.7% 0.2% 23:30 JPY Household Spending (YoY) (JUL) Medium 0.2% -0.4% 23:30 LIVE JPY Jobless Rate (JUL) Medium 3.9% 3.9% 23:30 JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUL) Medium 0.6% 0.4% 23:30 JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUL) Medium -0.2% -0.2%
  • 12. 23:30 JPY Job-To-Applicant Ratio (JUL) Low 0.93 0.92 23:30 JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (AUG) Low 0.4% 0.3% 23:30 JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (AUG) Low -0.3% -0.4% 23:30 JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) Low 0.5% 0.4% 23:45 USD Fed's James Bullard to Speak on U.S. Economy Medium 23:50 JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL P) Medium 1.8% -4.6% 23:50 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL P) Low 3.7% -3.1% Fri Aug 30 01:30 AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JUL) Medium 3.1% 3.1% 01:30 AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.4% 0.4% 01:45 CNY MNI August Business Sentiment Indicator Low 03:00 NZD Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JUL) Low 6.2% 04:00 JPY Vehicle Production (YoY) (JUL) Low -9.5% 05:00 JPY Annualized Housing Starts (JUL) Medium 0.996M 0.976M 05:00 JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (JUL) Medium 14.3% 15.3% 05:00 JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (JUL) Low 21.9% 06:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG) Medium 3.3% 3.9% 06:00 EUR German Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL) Medium 1.7% -2.8% 06:00 EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.6% -1.5% 07:00 CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (AUG) Medium 1.33 1.23 08:00 EUR Italian Unemployment Rate (JUL P) Low 12.2% 12.1% 08:00 EUR Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (2Q) Low 12.1% 11.9% 08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals (JUL) Medium 59.0K 57.7K 08:30 GBP Net Consumer Credit (JUL) Medium 0.7B 0.5B 08:30 GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (JUL) Low 3.9% 4.7%
  • 13. 08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.1% 08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (JUL) Low 1.5% 08:30 GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (JUL) Low 1.2B 1.0B 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (AUG A) High 1.1% 1.1% 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (AUG F) Medium 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (AUG) Medium 1.4% 1.6% 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JUL) Medium 12.1% 12.1% 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (AUG) Low -0.36 -0.53 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (AUG) Low 93.8 92.5 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (AUG) Low -9.6 -10.6 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence (AUG) Low -6.7 -7.8 12:30 LIVE CAD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (JUN) High 1.6% 12:30 LIVE CAD Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized (2Q) High 1.6% 2.5% 12:30 LIVE CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (JUN) Medium -0.5% 0.2% 12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (JUL) Medium 1.3% 1.2% 12:30 USD Personal Income (JUL) Medium 0.2% 0.3% 12:30 USD Personal Spending (JUL) Medium 0.3% 0.5% 12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.2% 0.2% 12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.2% 0.4% 12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (JUL) Low 1.5% 1.3% 13:00 USD Fed's Bullard to Speak on U.S. Economy in Memphis Low 13:00 USD NAPM-Milwaukee (AUG) Low 52.43 13:45 USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (AUG) Medium 53.0 52.3
  • 14. 13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence (AUG F) Medium 80.5 80.0 Disclaimer The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Epic research recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Epic research shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE. The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to epic research might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for . Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer. All Rights Reserved. Investment in equity & bullion market has its own risks. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. we are not responsible for any loss incurred whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above epic research does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken.