Daily i-forex-report-27-aug-2013

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Daily i-forex-report-27-aug-2013

  1. 1. DAILY IFOREX REPORT 27th AUG 2013
  2. 2.  ECB Comments Continue To Confuse, But No Euro Worries  Dollar Starts Week Mixed as Taper Speculation Becomes Data-Centric ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP After a strong midweek performance, the US Dollar slumped on Friday and its woes have continued into the last week of August. Sparked by a slew of weak housing figures on Friday, the buck’s downturn has begun at a curious time for markets, given the fact that last week produced not only the July FOMC Minutes but also the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Indeed, there is one main takeaway from the fireworks (or lack thereof) last week: between now and September 19, the next FOMC meeting, only US economic data will drive market sentiment. Dovish or hawkish, the commentary was more or less the same from Fed officials this past week: ‘September would be an appropriate time to taper if the economic data is strong.’ The first such opportunity to see if US data is moving in the right direction is today in the form of the Durable Goods Orders report for July. Durable goods are products with lifespans of three years or longer (appliances, automobiles, etc), and therefore the report is viewed as a proxy to consumer confidence and credit. In light of the recent upswing in financing costs, purchases that would be aided by lower rates have taken a hit in recent months (as seen on Friday, housing). We find that the July report should show no difference from the general trend. The weakness seen in the US Dollar to start the week reflects positioning for a weaker report; and a beat here would go a long way to ease sentiment and put favor back in the buck’s court. TRADING TIPS  SELL EURUSD BELOW 1.3380 TGT 1.3360/1.3330 SL 1.3410  SELL USDJPY ABOVE 98.40 TGT 98.10/97.70 SL 98.80  SELL GBPUSD BELOW 1.5540 TGT 1.5520/1.5490 SL 1.5570 HEADLINES
  3. 3.  HOURLY EURUSD CHARTHOURLY EURUSD CHART ANALYSIS EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0003(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 47(BEARISH SIGNAL)
  4. 4. HOURLY USDJPY CHART ANALYSIS USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARDRD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.10(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>47(BEARISH SIGNAL)
  5. 5. HOURLY GBPUSD CHART ANALYSIS GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>40(BEARISH SIGNAL)
  6. 6. HOURLY EURGBP CHART ANALYSIS EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>52(BULLISH SIGNAL)
  7. 7. HOURLY USD INDEX CHART ANALYSIS USD INDEX LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>54(BULLISH SIGNAL)
  8. 8. Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes Sun Aug 25 22:45 NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (JUL) Medium -1688M -956M -816M 22:45 NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (JUL) Medium -774M -16M 374M 22:45 NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (JUL) Low 3.85B 3.90B 4.01B 22:45 NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (JUL) Low 4.62B 3.90B 3.63B 23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY) (JUL) Low 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% Mon Aug 26 JPY Japan Economic Panel Meets on Sales Tax Increase (26-31) Medium 08:00 ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks on Euro Economy Medium 12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (JUL) High -4.0% 3.9% 12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation (JUL) Medium 0.5% -0.1% 12:30 USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (JUL) Low 0.5% 0.9% 12:30 USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (JUL) Low 0.3% -0.9% 14:30 USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (AUG) Low 3.9 4.4 21:00 USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update Low Tue Aug 27 01:30 CNY Industrial Profits YTD (YoY) (JUL) Low 11.1% 05:00 JPY Small Business Confidence (AUG) Medium 49.4 08:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate (AUG) Medium 107 106.2 08:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment (AUG) Medium 111 110.1 08:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations (AUG) Medium 103.1 102.4 10:50 USD Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in Sweden Low 11:00 EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks In Gothenburg, Sweden Low 13:00 USD S&P/CS 20 City s.a. (MoM) (JUN) Low 1.0% 1.1% 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (JUN) Low 12.1% 12.2% ECONOMIC CALLENDER
  9. 9. 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (JUN) Low 159.40 156.14 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (2Q) Low 136.7 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (YoY) (2Q) Low 10.2% 14:00 LIVE USD Consumer Confidence (AUG) High 79.0 80.3 14:00 USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (AUG) Low 0 -11 Wed Aug 28 CNY Leading Index (JUL) Medium 99.55 00:00 AUD CBAHIA House Affordability (2Q) Low 69.7 GBP Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (AUG) Low 0.6% 0.8% JPY BoJ Deputy Governor Iwata Speak at Kyoto Chamber of Commerce Low 01:30 AUD Construction Work Done (2Q) Low 1.0% -2.0% 06:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator (JUL) Medium 1.44 06:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (SEP) Medium 7.1 7.0 06:00 EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.3% -0.8% 06:00 EUR German Import Price Index (YoY) (JUL) Low -2.5% -2.2% 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3M) (JUL) Low 2.4% 2.8% 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (JUL) Low 2.0% 2.3% 10:00 GBP CBI Reported Sales (AUG) Low 20 17 11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 23) Low -4.6% 12:30 CAD Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (JUN) Low 2.5% 12:45 GBP Bank of England Governor Carney to Speak on U.K. Economy Medium 14:00 USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (JUL) Medium 9.1% 14:00 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.0% -0.4% 14:30 USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (AUG 23) Low -1090K 14:30 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (AUG 23) Low -1428K
  10. 10. 14:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (AUG 23) Low 871K 14:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (AUG 23) Low -4029K 23:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (AUG 23) Medium -¥903.8B 23:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (AUG 23) Medium -¥3.0B 23:50 JPY Large Retailers' Sales (JUL) Medium -0.5% 3.5% 23:50 JPY Retail Trade (YoY) (JUL) Medium -0.3% 1.6% 23:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (AUG 23) Low ¥38.7B 23:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (AUG 23) Low ¥47.9B 23:50 JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (JUL) Low 1.7% 23:50 JPY Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (JUL) Low -1.0% -0.2% Thu Aug 29 01:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (JUL) Medium 3.4% 01:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence (AUG) Medium 52.8 01:00 NZD ANZ Activity Outlook (AUG) Low 43.7 01:30 AUD Private Capital Expenditure (2Q) Low 0.0% -4.7% 01:30 JPY BOJ Board Member Morimoto Speech Low 07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change (AUG) High -5K -7K 07:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. (AUG) High 6.8% 6.8% 08:30 GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (AUG) Low 41 12:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (AUG P) High 1.7% 1.9% 12:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG P) High 1.7% 1.9% 12:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (AUG P) Medium 0.1% 0.4% 12:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG P) Medium 0.1% 0.5% 12:30 USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (2Q S) Medium 0.8% 0.8%
  11. 11. 12:30 USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (2Q S) Medium 2.2% 1.7% 12:30 USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (2Q S) Medium 0.7% 0.7% 12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 23) Medium 330K 12:30 USD Personal Consumption (2Q S) Medium 1.8% 1.8% 12:30 CAD Current Account (BoP) (Canadian dollar) (2Q) Low -$14.8B -$14.1B 12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.3% 0.3% 12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.7% 0.3% 12:30 USD Continuing Claims (AUG 17) Low 2990K 2990K 12:50 USD Fed's Bullard to Speak to Leadership Memphis Low 14:30 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (AUG 23) Low 57 18:00 USD Fed's Lacker Speaks in Virginia Low 22:45 NZD Building Permits (MoM) (JUL) Medium 1.3% -4.0% 23:05 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (AUG) Medium -14 -16 23:15 JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (AUG) Medium 50.7 23:30 LIVE JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) High 0.7% 0.2% 23:30 JPY Household Spending (YoY) (JUL) Medium 0.2% -0.4% 23:30 LIVE JPY Jobless Rate (JUL) Medium 3.9% 3.9% 23:30 JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUL) Medium 0.6% 0.4% 23:30 JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUL) Medium -0.2% -0.2% 23:30 JPY Job-To-Applicant Ratio (JUL) Low 0.93 0.92 23:30 JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (AUG) Low 0.4% 0.3% 23:30 JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (AUG) Low -0.3% -0.4% 23:30 JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) Low 0.5% 0.4% 23:45 USD Fed's James Bullard to Speak on U.S. Economy Medium
  12. 12. 23:50 JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL P) Medium 1.8% -4.6% 23:50 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL P) Low 3.7% -3.1% Fri Aug 30 01:30 AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JUL) Medium 3.1% 3.1% 01:30 AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.4% 0.4% 01:45 CNY MNI August Business Sentiment Indicator Low 03:00 NZD Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JUL) Low 6.2% 04:00 JPY Vehicle Production (YoY) (JUL) Low -9.5% 05:00 JPY Annualized Housing Starts (JUL) Medium 0.996M 0.976M 05:00 JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (JUL) Medium 14.3% 15.3% 05:00 JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (JUL) Low 21.9% 06:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG) Medium 3.3% 3.9% 06:00 EUR German Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL) Medium 1.7% -2.8% 06:00 EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.6% -1.5% 07:00 CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (AUG) Medium 1.33 1.23 08:00 EUR Italian Unemployment Rate (JUL P) Low 12.2% 12.1% 08:00 EUR Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (2Q) Low 12.1% 11.9% 08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals (JUL) Medium 59.0K 57.7K 08:30 GBP Net Consumer Credit (JUL) Medium 0.7B 0.5B 08:30 GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (JUL) Low 3.9% 4.7% 08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.1% 08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (JUL) Low 1.5% 08:30 GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (JUL) Low 1.2B 1.0B 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (AUG A) High 1.1% 1.1% 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (AUG F) Medium
  13. 13. 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (AUG) Medium 1.4% 1.6% 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JUL) Medium 12.1% 12.1% 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (AUG) Low -0.36 -0.53 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (AUG) Low 93.8 92.5 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (AUG) Low -9.6 -10.6 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence (AUG) Low -6.7 -7.8 12:30 LIVE CAD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (JUN) High 1.6% 12:30 LIVE CAD Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized (2Q) High 1.6% 2.5% 12:30 LIVE CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (JUN) Medium -0.5% 0.2% 12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (JUL) Medium 1.3% 1.2% 12:30 USD Personal Income (JUL) Medium 0.2% 0.3% 12:30 USD Personal Spending (JUL) Medium 0.3% 0.5% 12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.2% 0.2% 12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.2% 0.4% 12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (JUL) Low 1.5% 1.3% 13:00 USD Fed's Bullard to Speak on U.S. Economy in Memphis Low 13:00 USD NAPM-Milwaukee (AUG) Low 52.43 13:45 USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (AUG) Medium 53.0 52.3 13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence (AUG F) Medium 80.5 80.0
  14. 14. Disclaimer The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Epic research recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Epic research shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE. The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to epic research might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for . Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer. All Rights Reserved. Investment in equity & bullion market has its own risks. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. we are not responsible for any loss incurred whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above epic research does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken.

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