DAILY I FOREX REPORT 8th FEBRUARY 2013WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966
HEADLINES Euro May Rise on Neutral ECB, Pound at Risk on Carney Comments Volatility Risk High For EUR/USD Ahead Of ECB, GBP/USD With BoE TRADING TIPS Dollar Appeal Rising After Biggest Stimulus Drop In 4 BUY EURUSD ABOVE Years 1.3577 tgs 1.3597/1.3617 sl Euro May Rise on Neutral 1.3557 ECB, Pound at Risk on Carney Comments BUY USDJPY ABOW The economic calendar heats up in European trading 93.91 tgt hours. The European Central Bank will deliver its monthly policy announcement. Mario Draghi and 94.05/94.19 SL 93.71 company are not expected to offer any changes to the current framework this time around but the markets appear see the possibility for some verbal intervention SELL GBPUSD BELOW to emerge in the press conference following the rate decision to talk down the recently buoyant Euro. The 1.5645 tgt ECB President seems unlikely to overstep the bank’s mandate and dip into exchange rate policy however. 1.5631/1.5617 SL Indeed, a strong currency and its negative implications for exports and broader economic growth ultimately 1.5659 falls outside of the ECB’s strict focus on price stability alone. Still, expectant markets primed for a dovish turnWWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966 in rhetoric may respond to its absence as de-facto hawkish and bid up the single currency.
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes CNY Non-Sun 01:00 manufacturing PMI Medium 56.2 56.1Feb 3 (JAN) AUD TD Securities 23:30 Medium 2.5% 2.4% Inflation (YoY) (JAN) AUD TD Securities 23:30 Low 0.3% 0.4% Inflation (MoM) (JAN) JPY Monetary Base 23:50 Low 10.9% 11.8% (YoY) (JAN)Mon GBP Halifax HouseFeb 4 Low 1.6% -0.3% Price (3MoY) (JAN) GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) Low 0% 1.3% (JAN) NZD ANZ Commodity 00:00 Low 0.3% 1.0% Price (JAN) GBP Lloyds Business 00:01 Low 15 20 Barometer (JAN) AUD ANZ Job 00:30 Advertisements (MoM) Low -0.9% -2.80% (JAN) AUD Building 00:30 Approvals (MoM) Low -4.4% 1.0% 3.4% (DEC) AUD Building 00:30 Low 9.3% 14.9% 14.1% Approvals (YoY) (DEC) CHF UBS Real Estate 07:00 Low 1.11 1.02 Bubble Index (4Q) EUR Euro-Zone Sentix 09:30 Investor Confidence Medium -3.9 -1.7 -7 (FEB) GBP Purchasing 09:30 Manager Index Medium 48.7 49.2 48.7 Construction (JAN) EUR Euro-Zone 10:00 Producer Price Index High 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% (YoY) (DEC) EUR Euro-Zone 10:00 Producer Price Index Medium -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% (MoM) (DEC) EUR German Chancellor Merkel and 14:45 Medium Spanish PM Rajoy Hold Press Conference USD Factory Orders 15:00 Medium 2.3% 0.0% (DEC) NZD Average Hourly 21:45 Medium 0.4% 1.4% Earnings (QoQ) (4Q) NZD Labor Cost 21:45 Private Sector (QoQ) Low 0.5% 0.5% (4Q) NZD Private Wages ex 21:45 Low 0.5% 0.5% Overtime (QoQ) (4Q)
AUD AiG Performance 22:30 Medium 43.2 of Service Index (JAN) Tue GBP BRC Sales Like- 00:01 Low 0.3%Feb 5 For-Like YoY (JAN) AUD House Price Index 00:30 Medium 0.3% 0.3% (QoQ) (4Q) AUD House Price Index 00:30 Medium 0.9% 0.3% (YoY) (4Q) AUD Trade Balance 00:30 (Australian dollar) Medium -800M -2637M (DEC) CNY HSBC Services 01:45 Medium 51.7 PMI (JAN) AUD Reserve Bank of 03:30 Australia Rate Decision High 3.00% 3.00% (FEB 5) CHF Trade Balance 07:00 Medium 2.00B 2.90B (Swiss franc) (DEC) CHF Exports (MoM) 07:00 Low 6.0% (DEC) CHF Imports (MoM) 07:00 Low 0.2% (DEC) EUR Italian Purchasing 08:45 Manager Index Medium 45.8 45.6 Services (JAN) EUR French 08:50 Purchasing Manager Medium 43.6 43.6 Index Services (JAN F) GBP Purchasing 09:30 Manager Index Medium 49.5 48.9 Services (JAN) GBP Official Reserves 09:30 Low -$350M (Changes) (JAN) EUR Euro-Zone Retail 10:00 High -1.4% -2.6% Sales (YoY) (DEC) EUR Euro-Zone Retail 10:00 Medium -0.5% 0.1% Sales (MoM) (DEC) USD ISM Non- 15:00 Manufacutring Medium 55.0 55.7 Composite (JAN) USD IBD/TIPP 15:00 Economic Optimism Low 46.5 46.5 (FEB) GBP New CarWed Registrations (YoY) Low 3.7%Feb 6 (JAN) GBP BRC Shop Price 00:01 Low 1.5% Index (YoY) (JAN) AUD Retail Sales Ex 00:30 Medium 0.3% -0.1% Inflation(QoQ) (4Q) AUD Retail Sales s.a. 00:30 Medium 0.3% -0.1% (MoM) (DEC)
JPY BOJ Board 01:30 Low Member Sato Speech EUR German Factory 11:00 Orders n.s.a. (YoY) Medium -1.2% -1.0% (DEC) EUR German Factory 11:00 Orders s.a. (MoM) Low 0.7% -1.8% (DEC) USD MBA Mortgage 12:00 Low -8.1% Applications (FEB 1) CAD Ivey Purchasing 15:00 Managers Index SA Medium 53.8 52.8 (JAN) USD DOE Cushing OK 15:30 Crude Inventory (FEB Low 284K 1) USD DOE U.S. Crude 15:30 Low 5947K Oil Inventories (FEB 1) USD DOE U.S. 15:30 Distillate Inventory Low -2315K (FEB 1) USD DOE U.S. 15:30 Gasoline Inventories Low -956K (FEB 1) NZD Employment 21:45 Medium -0.4% Change (QoQ) (4Q) NZD Employment 21:45 Medium 0.0% Change (YoY) (4Q) NZD Unemployment 21:45 Medium 7.3% Rate (4Q) NZD Participation Rate 21:45 Low 68.4% (QoQ) (4Q) AUD AiG Performance 22:30 of Construction Index Medium 38.8 (JAN) JPY Machine Orders 23:50 Medium -0.9% 3.9% (MoM) (DEC) JPY Machine Orders 23:50 Medium -4.0% 0.3% (YoY) (DEC) JPY Foreign Buying 23:50 Japan Bonds (Yen) Low -¥228.8B (FEB 1) JPY Foreign Buying 23:50 Japan Stocks (Yen) Low ¥248.6B (FEB 1) JPY Japan Buying 23:50 Foreign Bonds (Yen) Low ¥663.1B (FEB 1) JPY Japan Buying 23:50 Foreign Stocks (Yen) Low -¥254.1B (FEB 1) JPY Official Reserve 23:50 Low $1268.1B Assets (JAN) EUR GermanThu Wholesale Price Index Low 0.0%Feb 7 (MoM) (JAN)
EUR German Wholesale Price Index Low 3.2% (YoY) (JAN) AUD Employment00:30 High 6.0K -5.5K Change (JAN) AUD Unemployment00:30 High 5.5% 5.4% Rate (JAN) AUD Full Time00:30 Employment Change Medium -13.8K (JAN) AUD NAB Business00:30 Medium -2 Confidence (4Q) AUD Part Time00:30 Employment Change Medium 8.3K (JAN) AUD Participation Rate00:30 Low 65.1% 65.1% (JAN) JPY Leading Index05:00 Medium 93.6 92.1 (DEC P) JPY Coincident Index05:00 Low 92.6 90.2 (DEC P) AUD Foreign Reserves05:30 (Australian dollar) Low A$47.3B (JAN) CHF SECO Consumer06:45 Medium -12 -17 Confidence (JAN) EUR French Trade07:45 Low -4200M -4334M Balance (euros) (DEC) CHF Foreign Currency08:00 Low 428.5B 427.2B Reserves (JAN) GBP Industrial09:30 Production (YoY) Medium -2.2% -2.4% (DEC) GBP Manufacturing09:30 Production (YoY) Medium -2.6% -2.1% (DEC) GBP Visible Trade09:30 Balance (Pounds) Medium -£9000 -£9164 (DEC) GBP Industrial09:30 Production (MoM) Low 0.7% 0.3% (DEC) GBP Manufacturing09:30 Production (MoM) Low 0.6% -0.3% (DEC) GBP Total Trade09:30 Balance (Pounds) Low -£3300 -£3466 (DEC) GBP Trade Balance09:30 Non EU (Pounds) Low -£4300 -£4519 (DEC) EUR European Commission Releases10:00 Medium Economic Growth Forecasts (Table)
EUR German Industrial11:00 Production n.s.a. and Medium -0.5% -2.9% w.d.a. (YoY) (DEC) EUR German Industrial11:00 Production s.a. (MoM) Low 0.2% 0.2% (DEC) GBP BOE Asset12:00 High 375B 375B Purchase Target (FEB) GBP Bank of England12:00 High 0.5% 0.50% Rate Decision (FEB 7) EUR European Central12:45 Bank Rate Decision High 0.75% 0.75% (FEB 7) EUR ECB Deposit12:45 Low 0.0% 0.00% Facility Rate (FEB 7) CAD New Housing13:30 Price Index (YoY) Medium 2.2% (DEC) USD Initial Jobless13:30 Medium 360K 368K Claims (FEB 3) CAD Building Permits13:30 Low -17.9% (MoM) (DEC) CAD New Housing13:30 Price Index (MoM) Low 0.1% 0.1% (DEC) USD Continuing Claims13:30 Low 3187K 3197K (JAN 27) USD Non-Farm13:30 Low -1.0% 2.9% Productivity (4Q P) USD Unit Labor Costs13:30 Low 3.0% -1.9% (4Q P) GBP NIESR Gross15:00 Domestic Product Medium -0.3% Estimate (JAN) USD EIA Natural Gas15:30 Storage Change (FEB Low -194 1) USD Consumer Credit20:00 Medium $14.500B $16.045B (DEC) JPY Trade Balance -23:50 BOP Basis (Yen) Medium -¥560.3B -¥847.5B (DEC) JPY Adjusted Current23:50 Account Total (Yen) Low ¥235.8B ¥225.9B (DEC) JPY Bank Lending23:50 Low 1.4% Banks ex-Trust (JAN) JPY Bank Lending incl23:50 Low 1.2% Trusts (YoY) (JAN) JPY Current Account23:50 Low -154.3% -276.4% Balance (YoY) (DEC) JPY Current Account23:50 Low -¥141.1B -¥222.4B Total (Yen) (DEC)
JPY Housing Loans 23:50 Low 3.0% (YoY) (4Q) Fri CNY Exports (YoY) Medium 17.1% 14.1%Feb 8 (JAN) CNY Imports (YoY) Medium 23.5% 6.0% (JAN) CNY Trade Balance Medium $24.20B $31.62B (USD) (JAN) JPY Bankruptcies 04:30 Medium -13.8% (YoY) (JAN) JPY Eco Watchers 05:00 Medium 48 45.8 Survey: Current (JAN) JPY Eco Watchers 05:00 Medium 51 Survey: Outlook (JAN) CNY Consumer Price 05:30 High 2.1% 2.5% Index (YoY) (JAN) CNY Producer Price 05:30 Medium -1.6% -1.9% Index (YoY) (JAN) CHF Unemployment 06:45 Medium 3.4% 3.3% Rate (JAN) CHF Unemployment 06:45 Medium 3.1% 3.0% Rate s.a. (JAN) EUR German Trade 07:00 Medium 15.0B 17.0B Balance (euros) (DEC) EUR German Current 07:00 Low 17.0B 15.3B Account (euros) (DEC) EUR German Exports 07:00 Low 1.4% -3.4% s.a. (MoM) (DEC) EUR German Imports 07:00 Low 1.6% -3.7% s.a. (MoM) (DEC) EUR Bank of France 07:30 Business Sentiment Medium 95 (JAN) EUR French Central 07:45 Government Balance Low -103.4B (euros) (DEC) CHF Retail Sales 08:15 Medium 2.9% (Real) (YoY) (DEC) EUR Italian Industrial 09:00 Production n.s.a. (YoY) Low -7.6% (DEC) EUR Italian Industrial 09:00 Production s.a. (MoM) Low 0.2% -1.0% (DEC) EUR Italian Industrial 09:00 Production w.d.a. (YoY) Low -7.6% (DEC) CAD Housing Starts 13:15 Medium 195.0K 198.0K (JAN) CAD Net Change in 13:30 High 4.0K 39.8K Employment (JAN)
CAD Unemployment 13:30 High 7.2% 7.1% Rate (JAN) CAD Full Time 13:30 Employment Change Medium 41.2 (JAN) CAD Part Time 13:30 Employment Change Medium -1.4 (JAN) CAD Participation Rate 13:30 Medium 66.8 (JAN) USD Trade Balance 13:30 Medium -$46.0B -$48.7B (DEC) CAD International Merchandise Trade 13:30 Low -1.50B -1.96B (Canadian dollar) (DEC) USD Wholesale 15:00 Low 0.4% 0.6% Inventories (DEC)www.epicresearch.co + 91 9752199966
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