2013 FORECAST: A LOOK AHEAD   Puget Sound Economic Forecast         Dick Conway   Economist & Co-PublisherPuget Sound Econ...
PUGET SOUND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK             Dick Conway   The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster     Conway Pedersen Economics, ...
U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product        Initial Year =1.0001.3001.2001.1001.0000.9000.8000.7000.600        2000       2002...
Dot-Com/911 Recession          and The Great Recession                              Puget              United             ...
Reasons for Deeper         Puget Sound Recessions•   Dot-Com/911 Recession      High concentration of dot-coms      The Bo...
Economic Growth, 2000-2011              Annual Percent Change                                Puget               United   ...
Puget Sound Economic Forecast                  Percent Change                           2011   2012     2013        2014Em...
Puget Sound Economic Forecast (2)                   Percent Change                        2011    2012        2013        ...
Puget Sound Leading Index              and Employment         1987=1.000                                          Thousand...
Economic Forecast, 2011-2021                Annual Percent Change                                 1970-11         2011-21P...
Reasons for Faster Growth     in Puget Sound Region•   Geographic location•   International trade•   World-class companies...
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Dick Conway Economic Forecast slides

  1. 1. 2013 FORECAST: A LOOK AHEAD Puget Sound Economic Forecast Dick Conway Economist & Co-PublisherPuget Sound Economic Forecaster
  2. 2. PUGET SOUND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Dick Conway The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc. www.economicforecaster.com THE PUGET SOUND ECONOMIC FORECASTER
  3. 3. U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Initial Year =1.0001.3001.2001.1001.0000.9000.8000.7000.600 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939 2000-2011 1929-1940 THE PUGET SOUND ECONOMIC FORECASTER
  4. 4. Dot-Com/911 Recession and The Great Recession Puget United Sound StatesDot-Com/911 Recession Employment (% change) -4.8 -2.0 Peak unemployment rate (%) 7.0 6.2The Great Recession Employment (% change) -7.6 -6.2 Peak unemployment rate (%) 9.7 10.0 THE PUGET SOUND ECONOMIC FORECASTER
  5. 5. Reasons for Deeper Puget Sound Recessions• Dot-Com/911 Recession High concentration of dot-coms The Boeing Company• The Great Recession Rapid expansion prior to recession Very strong housing market Washington Mutual Bank THE PUGET SOUND ECONOMIC FORECASTER
  6. 6. Economic Growth, 2000-2011 Annual Percent Change Puget United Sound StatesEmployment 0.2 -0.0Unemployment rate (avg. %) 6.2 6.2Personal income (cur. $) 3.9 3.8Population 1.2 0.9 THE PUGET SOUND ECONOMIC FORECASTER
  7. 7. Puget Sound Economic Forecast Percent Change 2011 2012 2013 2014Employment 1.7 2.7 2.7 2.4Personal income (cur. $) 5.4 4.6 5.1 5.7Consumer price index 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.4Housing permits 11.9 50.2 22.1 10.0Population 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.4 THE PUGET SOUND ECONOMIC FORECASTER
  8. 8. Puget Sound Economic Forecast (2) Percent Change 2011 2012 2013 2014Retail sales 5.5 6.2 5.3 5.5Taxable retail sales 2.5 5.3 5.1 5.9Home sales 8.9 15.4 19.3 -0.5Average home price -9.6 2.4 8.3 4.4Apartment vacancy (%) 4.9 4.7 5.1 5.2 THE PUGET SOUND ECONOMIC FORECASTER
  9. 9. Puget Sound Leading Index and Employment 1987=1.000 Thousands1.200 19501.160 19001.120 18501.080 18001.040 17501.000 17000.960 16500.920 1600 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Leading index (l) Employment (r) Note: Shaded areas designate recessions. THE PUGET SOUND ECONOMIC FORECASTER
  10. 10. Economic Forecast, 2011-2021 Annual Percent Change 1970-11 2011-21Puget Sound Employment 2.4 1.9 Personal income (cur. $) 7.8 5.2 Population 1.6 1.1United States Employment 1.5 1.4 Personal income (cur. $) 6.9 4.8 Population 1.0 0.8 THE PUGET SOUND ECONOMIC FORECASTER
  11. 11. Reasons for Faster Growth in Puget Sound Region• Geographic location• International trade• World-class companies• High technology• Well-educated workforce• Natural and cultural amenities THE PUGET SOUND ECONOMIC FORECASTER
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