Scotland's Changing Labour Market: Challenges and Opportunities for Young People

SCOTLAND’S CHANGING LABOUR MARKET: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR YOUNG PEOPLE PRESENTATION TO DETERMINED TO SUCCEED GATHERING 26 October 2009 Professor Alan McGregor

PLAN OF PRESENTATION ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

YOUNG PEOPLE AND RECESSIONS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

LABOUR MARKET IN RECESSION ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Total Employment, UK, 1971-2007

RECESSION AND YOUNG PEOPLE ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

School Leaver Destinations (% Unemployed), 12.4 2007/08 12.0 2006/07 13.2 2005/06 13.1 2004/05 16.4 2003/04 16.0 2002/03

16-19 Year Olds in MCMC Group (%) 31,000 32,000 32,000 37,000 35,000 36,000 11.9 2008 12.2 2007 12.4 2006 14.2 2005 13.3 2004 13.7 2003

RECESSION AND YOUNG PEOPLE (CONT) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

JSA Claimants: Total and 26 week + by Age Group +95.2 33,170 16,990 25 + +156.8 5,020 1,955 20-24 +158.5 2,210 855 18-19 JSA Claimants 26 weeks + +60.9 89,455 55,610 25 + +58.3 24,940 15,750 20-24 +52.3 12,920 8,485 18-19 JSA Claimants % Change Sept 2009 Sept 2008

RECESSION AND YOUNG PEOPLE (CONT) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

THE ECONOMY: LOOKING FORWARD ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

RECOVERY SCENARIOS 1. V Shaped 2. Double Dip 3. Bumping Along

TELLING FUTURE FROM PAST Source: The Scottish Government

THE ECONOMY: LOOKING FORWARD (CONT) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

EMPLOYMENT: LOOKING FORWARD ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Source: Scottish Enterprise EMPLOYMENT FORECAST TO INCREASE, FROM 2012

TOMORROW’S INDUSTRIES ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

GOVERNMENT ECONOMIC STRATEGY - OUR SECTOR FOCUS Source: Scottish Enterprise

EMPLOYMENT IN KEY AND OTHER GROWTH SECTORS (2006) Source: Scotish Enterprise 3,300 Forest Industries 10,400 Textiles 14,100 Chemical Sciences 27,400 Life Sciences 44,700 Energy 46,000 Food & Drink 46,700 Creative Industries 90,389 Financial and Business Services 126,100 Construction 206,600 Tourism Employees Industry

TOMORROW’S INDUSTRIES (CONT) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

TOMORROW’S OCCUPATIONS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: UKCES

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

16 to 19 Year Olds in Scotland, 2008 to 2028

Change in16-19 and 16-64 Year Olds (2008 = 100)

SOME CONCLUSIONS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

MESSAGES FOR EDUCATION ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

MESSAGES FOR EDUCATION (CONT) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Scotland's Changing Labour Market: Challenges and Opportunities for Young People

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