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Understanding Risk - Best Practices in Disaster Risk Assessment: Proceedings from the 2012 UR Forum
 

Understanding Risk - Best Practices in Disaster Risk Assessment: Proceedings from the 2012 UR Forum

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Understanding Risk (UR) is a community of more than 2,600 leading experts and practitioners in disaster risk assessment from around the world. Members of the community include representatives of ...

Understanding Risk (UR) is a community of more than 2,600 leading experts and practitioners in disaster risk assessment from around the world. Members of the community include representatives of government agencies, multilateral organizations, the private sector, non-governmental organizations, research institutions, academia, community-based organizations, and civil society.

Every two years, the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) convenes the UR Community at UR Forums. Forums are “state of the art” events that showcase best practices and the latest technical know-how in risk assessment. UR provides partners with the opportunity to highlight new activities and initiatives, build new partnerships, and further foster advances in the field.

UR is a community of global experts in the field of disaster risk assessment. UR community members share knowledge and experience, collaborate, and discuss innovation and best practice in risk assessment. This Community convenes every two years at UR Forums.

The first UR Forum was held in Washington D.C. in June 2010. Since then the world has witnessed high impact disasters and extreme events that have changed the way we understand disaster risk. UR 2012, held in Cape Town, July 2-6, convened 500 risk assessment experts from more than 86 countries to address this challenge, underscoring the importance of integrating disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) as a core element of development.

Organized in partnership with the Government of South Africa and the European Union (EU), UR 2012 showcased new tools for decision–makers, strengthened regional and global partnerships, and built technical capacity in the Africa region through a series of training events.

The UR Community of Practice remains a unique platform for incubating innovation and forging partnerships
and will continue to work collaboratively to build resiliency to disaster risk in the future.

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    Understanding Risk - Best Practices in Disaster Risk Assessment: Proceedings from the 2012 UR Forum Understanding Risk - Best Practices in Disaster Risk Assessment: Proceedings from the 2012 UR Forum Document Transcript

    • UNDERSTANDINGUnderstandingRiskRISKBest Practices in Disaster Risk Assessment Proceedings from the 2012 UR Forum
    • Pr oceedings f r om t he 201 2 UR For um Understanding Risk (UR) is a community of global experts in the field of disaster risk assessment. UR community members share knowledge and experience, collaborate, and discuss innovation and best practice in risk assessment. This Community convenes every two years at UR Forums. Join the Community www.understandrisk.org Photo: Confluence of the Missouri and Mississippi rivers, Missouri, USA. Credit: © Digital Vision.
    • i
    • Key Search for content you are interested in with the following tags. These are placed at the beginning of each article. ICELAND CHINA USA JAPAN morocco PAKISTAN MEXICO HAITI dominica SAHEL INDIA jamaica Saint Lucia niger YEMENEL SALVADOR Saint Vincent SRI LANKA PHILIPPINES TRINIDAD & TOBAGO ghana HORN OF AFRICA INDONESIA kenya ZambeZi basin malawi la reunion namibia Mozambique PACIFIC ISLANDS CHILE SOUTH AFRICA NEW ZEALAND This map will indicate which countries and regions are highlighted in each article. This volume is a product of the staff of the World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Published in Washington D.C. December, 2012 Editors: Emma Phillips and Noosha Tayebi Contributor: Brendan McNulty Designed by Miki Fernández (miki@ultradesigns.com), Washington, D.C. Copyright ©2012 by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433 U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing November 2012
    • Contentsv Acknowledgmentsvi Overviewviii Forewordx Risk in the 21st Century, Rowan Douglas, Chief Executive Officer, Global Analytics, Willis Rexi Map of 2010-2012 DisastersProceedings from the Forum1 Assessing Risk in a Changing Climate5 Q&A with Honorable Patricia de Lille, Mayor of Cape Town, South Africa7 Thinking about the Unthinkable13 Advancing Risk Assessment for Financial Applications21 The Global Assessment Report23 Q&A with Alan Knott-Craig, Chief Executive Officer, World of Avatar25 New Tools and Methodologies for Building Disaster Resilience: Moving from Risk Assessment to Mitigation29 Open Data35 Applications of Crowdsourcing for Development and Disaster Response41 Community-Based Risk Assessment44 The Climate and Gender Game47 Satellite Earth Observation in Support of Disaster Risk Management in Africa55 Drought Response and Resilience - Innovations in the Horn of Africa and Beyond61 Flood Risks across Spatial Scales67 Landslide Risk Assessments for Decision-Making73 Meteorological, Hydrological, and Climate Services to Support Risk Analysis81 Working Together to Advance Earthquake Risk Assessment85 Training Sessions at UR 2012 Forum iii
    • iv
    • AcknowledgmentsTo the Understanding Risk (UR) CommunityT he spirit of collaboration leading up to the 2012 Understanding Risk (UR) Forum in Cape Town was inspiring. We cannot mention all of the organizations and individuals involved, but would like to highlight a few key partners.First off, we would like to thank the 2012 UR partners: the Government of South Africa and the Department ofCooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs’ National Disaster Management Centre (NDMC), the Global Facilityfor Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), and the African Caribbean and Pacific - European Union (ACP-EU)Program.A special thank you to all the organizations that were involved in the UR Forum: the African Development Bank(AfDB), the African Union (AU), AusAID, Australia - Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction (AIFDR), Cape TownDisaster Risk Management Centre (DRMC), CAPRA, Council for Geoscience, Council of Scientific and IndustrialResearch (CSIR), Deltares, European Space Agency (ESA), Esri, Global Earthquake Model (GEM), HumanitarianOpenStreetMap Team (HOT), IVM Institute for Environmental Studies, Intergovernmental Authority onDevelopment (IGAD), Kenya Red Cross, Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI), North-West University,Open Data for Resilience Initiative (OpenDRI), Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, South African InsuranceAssociation (SAIA), Southern African Development Community (SADC), South African National Space Agency(SANSA), Tulane University, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the United Nations InternationalStrategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) Willis Research Network, World Food Program (WFP) and the WorldMeteorological Organization (WMO).We would also like to extend our gratitude to our opening and closing speakers: Honorable Minister Richard Baloyi,Rowan Douglas, Ebrima Faal, Hildegarde Fast, Francis Ghesquiere, Jonathan Kamkwalala, Alan Knott-Craig, MayorPatricia de Lille, Andrew Maskrey, Ken Terry, and Richard Young. Thank you to the Mayors present at the Roundtable:Mayor Maabad Hoja, Mayor Didas Massaburi and Lord Mayor Mahmad Kodabaccus.Thank you to our Session Leads for putting in extensive time and effort into organizing their sessions, and for writingthe summaries for this publication: Philippe Bally, Kate Chapman, Derek Clarke, Trevor Dhu, Souleyman Diop, RosaugeGuale, Emmanuel Kala, James Kisia, Jaap Kwadijik, Olivier Mahul, Jean-Baptiste Migraine, Jane Olwoch, AbdishakurOthowai, Rui Pinho, Eugene Poolman, Julio Serje, Robert Soden, Maarten Van Aalst, Kenneth Verosub, and Cees vanWesten. A special thanks to all of their panelists.We would like to acknowledge the teams who were involved: the staff and volunteers from the Cape Town DisasterRisk Management Center (DRMC), the Cape Town International Convention Centre, Imfunzelelo, Multi-ImageProductions, and the following individuals: Claus Astrup, Abigail Baca, Judy Baker, Trish Barrett, Laura Boudreau, AnnaBurzykowska, Zelda Coetzee, Eric Dickson, Laura Dorling, Tiguist Fisseha, Marc Forni, Niels Holm-Nielsen, SarwatHussain, Christina Irene, Oscar Ishizawa, Henriette Mampuya, Marc Neilson, Ariel Nunez, Kristina Nwazota, NothandoNyathi, Greg Pillay, Charlotte Powell, Fernando Ramirez, Keiko Saito, Sahar Safaie, Mmenyane Seoposengwe, AlannaSimpson, Anthea Serritslev, David Sislen, Wilfred Solomons, Zuzana Svetlosakova, Joaquin Toro, Sonam Velani, andErika Vargas.And last, but not least, to the core Understanding Risk team in South Africa: Ane Bruwer, Zena John, Craig Meyer,and in Washington, D.C.: Chalida Chararnsuk, Miki Fernández, Brendan McNulty, Francis Muraya, Emma Phillips, NooshaTayebi and Doekle Wielinga; thank you for your time, dedication and creativity in making this event happen! v
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR ForumCape Town, South Africa. Credit: Thinkstock.comThe Understanding Risk (UR) CommunityUR is a community of more than 2,600 leading experts and practitioners in disaster risk assessment from around the world. Members of the community include representatives of government agencies,multilateral organizations, the private sector, non-governmental organizations, research institutions,academia, community-based organizations, and civil society.Every two years, the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) convenes the URCommunity at UR Forums. Forums are “state of the art” events that showcase best practices and the latesttechnical know-how in risk assessment. UR provides partners with the opportunity to highlight new activitiesand initiatives, build new partnerships, and further foster advances in the field.vi
    • OverviewThe first UR Forum was held in Washington D.C. in June 2010. Since then the world has witnessed highimpact disasters and extreme events that have changed the way we understand disaster risk. UR 2012, heldin Cape Town, July 2-6, convened 500 risk assessment experts from more than 86 countries to address thischallenge, underscoring the importance of integrating disaster risk management (DRM) and climate changeadaptation (CCA) as a core element of development.Organized in partnership with the Government of South Africa and the European Union (EU), UR 2012showcased new tools for decision–makers, strengthened regional and global partnerships, and built technicalcapacity in the Africa region through a series of training events.The UR Community of practice remains a unique platform for incubating innovation and forging partnershipsand will continue to work collaboratively to build resiliency to disaster risk in the future. vii
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR ForumForewordT he second “Understanding Risk” (UR) Forum was held in Cape Town, South Africa from July 2-6, 2012. Organized in partnership with the Government of South Africa’s National Disaster Management Center (NDMC), Department of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs (COGTA), the Forum broughttogether 500 risk assessment experts from more than 86 countries around the world. The Forum wasconvened by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) in collaboration with the WorldBank’s Africa Region.These proceedings seek to convey the richness of the discussion that took place during UR2012. Theevent was a resounding success, not only because it brought together the world’s leading experts in riskassessment, but also because it was a testimony to the tremendous progress achieved in understanding risksince the UR Forum series was first launched in 2010, in Washington, D.C.Crowdsourcing, a topic that was completely new just two years ago, has now become part of themainstream. It is noteworthy that this concept is now used to support Risk Assessments for FinancialApplications in order to strengthen the financial resilience of governments, businesses, and householdsagainst the economic burden of disasters.It is also clear from the discussions that there is a growing consensus about the need for more OpenData. Many initiatives demonstrated that this could be done for the benefit of all. The session on the useof Satellite Earth Observation demonstrated how much new thinking has evolved and permeated thediscussion, with a renewed focus on the need to bridge the gap that still exists between image providers andactual users on the ground.The Honorable Minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs of South Africa, Mr. Richard Baloyiopened the Forum with a keynote address that highlighted the importance of the disaster risk management(DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) agendas to the African continent. Extensive participation byAfrican delegates confirmed that identifying risk is particularly relevant for Africa and that progress has beenmade in the developing world to make better use of risk assessments.Holding the Forum in South Africa enabled the UR community and practitioners to focus on DroughtResponse and Resilience. Drought is a challenge that affects the region on a regular basis, and as theongoing crises in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel demonstrate, the economic and social impacts arefar-reaching. It is heartening that the 2013 Global Assessment Report will have a particular focus ondeveloping methodological approaches to measure drought hazards and drought intensity to better addressthis challenge.viii
    • ForewordOther sessions highlighted the advances in hazard assessments, including Flood Risk across Spatial Scales,Landslides Risk Assessments, and Earthquake Risk Assessments, also relevant to the African context.New Tools and Methodologies for Building Resilience were highlighted, focusing on the extensiveprogress being achieved in making these tools available to non-specialists for the analysis and communicationof risk, as well as the importance of Community-Based Risk Assessments that engage local and impactedcommunities in the risk reduction process.Finally, the last two years confirmed the need for the world to continue Thinking about the Unthinkable.The Great Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami of March 2011 and the floods in Thailand come as a starkreminder that we face a future of increasing uncertainty about extreme events. The cascading impacts andfar-reaching consequences disrupted energy policies and value chains all around the world. The release of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and
Disastersto Advance Climate Change
Adaptation (SREX) Report was at the core of discussions on Meteorological,Hydrological, and Climate Services and the need to Assess Risk in a Changing Climate.We are pleased that all these topics are included in this volume, summarizing the stimulating discussions thattook place in Cape Town. Since the 2010 Forum the UR Community has been growing from strength-to-strength, tackling issues of economic, social, and environmental vulnerability with renewed commitment tohelping communities build resilience.We are confident that the UR Forum series will lead to new partnerships and innovative advances in riskassessment, so essential for achieving sustainable development in Africa and beyond. We look forward to thenext UR Forum in 2014, and to continuing the excellent spirit of cooperation that took root in Cape Town,South Africa.Francis Ghesquiere Jonathan Kamkwalala Ken TerryHead of the GFDRR Secretariat & Sector Manager, Water Resources Head of NDMCManager of the DRM Practice Group Africa Region Department of CoGTAWorld Bank World Bank South Africa ix
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR Forum stRisk in the 21 CenturyRowan DouglasChief Executive Officer, Global Analytics, Willis ReAt the 2010 Understanding Risk (UR) Forum we described thiscommunity of four hundred risk experts and practitioners as a ship thatwas setting sail. We were aware that not all the key institutions wewanted were there at the time, but those who were there needed to beon that ship. Two years on, what has happened? The ship is now a flotillaof ships that have set sail and have remarkably entered the main shippinglanes. Why is that? Cooperation (APEC). But perhapsL ast year saw the most century will look like, but as we look remarkable and shocking at the perfect storm of further most critically, at the G20 meeting stream of natural climate concern, population growth, in Los Cabos, Mexico, naturalcatastrophes to befall our and concerns around finance and disasters were on the agenda forcommunities in many years, others, we have an interesting time the first time.from floods in Thailand to the ahead of us.earthquake and tsunami in Japan. In the UR world, much hasTheses catastrophes affected all Over the last few years we have happened too. What we previouslycommunities, even those that were seen that disasters have moved talked about in theory is nowconsidered to be the most prepared to the top levels of public policy. happening in practice. Two yearsand able to confront those We see it here in Cape Town, at ago the Global Earthquake Modelchallenges. They also had a global the local level through the work of (GEM) Foundation was being talkedeffect because of the increasingly the United Nations International about in theory. Today you caninterconnectedness of modern Strategy for Disaster Reduction attend a training session in thesociety and supply chains. (UNISDR); with the national Openquake modeling platform. As programs, for example in the United a result, a number of communitiesThe first ten years of this century States or the United Kingdom, have been connected.have been an overture of the where natural catastrophe is21st century. The shocks coming considered a key concern in building Looking ahead, we need to thinkfrom the financial markets, natural resilience and security as a platform about how this flotilla is going tocatastrophes, and security have for growth; and we see it in our navigate the “seven seas”. We havechanged the tempo of the post multi-national institutions, where to understand how to navigate theWorld War II period of growth natural catastrophe is at the top of climate, the crust, catastrophe,to a period of uncertainty. We do the agenda for the European Union capital, communications (bothnot know what the rest of the (EU) and the Asia-Pacific Economic understanding and conveyingx
    • Risk in the 21st Centuryinformation), culture (public As such, there is tremendous But now in an increasingly uncertainpolicy and decision-making within opportunity for science, technology, world, the principals of applyingpublic and private spheres), and and academy to cross boundaries math and science to socio-economiccommunity (at local, national, and and show impact and relevance. challenges as they did 200 hundredglobal scales). Whether through the power of years are being re-expressed super-computing or models, or today through technology. It isDuring the Romantic Period in the ability of us all to contribute also recognized that countries andthe 18th century, artists and and receive information at micro individuals need to come togetherintellectuals tried to connect an scales, there is an opportunity for to mutualize and share their risk atincreasingly industrialized society international institutions to develop both local and global scales.with nature through the arts, a framework together to confrontmusic, and literature. We are this challenge. What are the challenges movingnow entering, not least through forward? To some degree thethe work of the UR community, a There is also a huge challenge supply side is taken care of: we havenew Romantic period. But today and opportunity for emerging the technology, we can usually findwe are connected back to nature economies. South Africa, Mexico, the information to the level wethrough the pervasive power of and others are taking a lead in need, and we can usually find thethe modeled and networked world. this space. Through the need to financing we require.We are connected not just through confront the challenges of naturalour emotions, but also through our catastrophe other public policy The real challenge is to create thebalance sheets, financial decision- benefits and mindsets have been generation of demand. We need tomaking, and fiscal processes. This created. be able to incentivize and ensuremarriage of technology, data, those who need to take decisionsfinance, and policy is at the heart of An exciting opportunity exists for about securing their future andconfronting the challenges we face business and the world of insurance. understanding their risks obtainaround natural disasters. Insurance has receded in peoples’ the right information; and that we consciousness until quite recently. deliver it to them effectively. Seemingly ‘local’ disasters have much broader impacts. As businesses become more interconnected and supply chains become more international, seemingly local events have increasing global impact. The 2010 eruption of the volcano Eyjafjallajökull had negligible impact in Iceland, but affected international air travel in Europe for over two weeks, leading to major economic losses in travel, tourism and trade. A study by Oxford Economics found that the total impact on global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in just the first week of disruption from the ash cloud amounted to approximately $4.7 billion1. Similarly the 2011 floods in Thailand reduced Japan’s industrial output by 2.6% between October and November of that year, due to disruptions in electronics and automotive “just-in-time” supply chains2. 1 Oxford Economics, (2010). 2 Mitchell, Mechler, and Harris, (2012). xi
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR ForumMajor Disasters since UR2010Since the first meeting of the Understanding Risk (UR) Community in Washington, D.C. in June 2010, the world has seenhundreds of natural disasters that have caused more than US$1 trillion in losses, the vast majority of them uninsured, andaffected thousands of lives. Below are some of largest disasters in terms of economic losses and human impact. united states 2011 176 1,150 2012 US$14,000 Hurricane Sandy* niger 2011-2012 Haiti mali 3,000,000 2010 222,570 2011-2012 3,700,000 US$8,000 2,970,000 burkina fasoKey 2011-2012 2,850,000 nigeria Drought 2010 40 1,500,200 Earthquake US$30 Flood ethiopia 2011-2012 Storm CHIle 4,805,679 2012 Year 2010 562 1,000,000 Fatalities 2,671,556 Total affected US$30,000 Est. damages (US$ million)* When this publication went to printHurricane Sandy devastated portions ofthe Caribbean and the Mid-Atlantic andNortheastern United States in late October2012. Preliminary estimates of losses dueto damage and business interruption wereestimated at US$65.5 billion.xii
    • Major Disasters since UR2010 CHINA 2010 2010 2,968 1,691 112,000 134,000,000 japan 500 18,000 2011 19,846 pakistan 2010-2011 368,820 2010 35,000,000 US$210,000 1,985 2,370 20,359,496 US$9,500sudan 20123,200,000 djibouti thailand philippines 2010 2011-2012 2012 813 11 200,258 9,500,000 320,277 US$40,000 US$8.9 somalia 2012 india 2012kenya 3,000,000 101 fiji 2,200,000 2012 2012 5 14,9843,750,000 US$40 new zealand 2011 181 301,500 US$15,000 xiii
    • Assessing Risk ina Changing ClimateDr. Maarten Van Aalst, Science, policy, and practice all demonstrate thatDirector, Red Cross / Red disaster risk management (DRM) and climate changeCrescent Climate Center adaptation (CCA) are intimately connected. Evidence suggests that weather and climate extremes are changing and new risks are emerging. We need to think about how to manage not only the reoccurring risks of the past, but also those of the future. Policy and practice also need to bridge short and longer timescales relevant for decision-making.New Risks weather and climate events uncertainty remains high. Climate (‘climate extremes’) in some regions extremes are essentially becomingT he Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) already. For the coming two or more unpredictable. High levels of recently released a Special three decades, the expected vulnerability, combined with moreReport on Managing the Risk of increase in climate extremes severe and frequent weather andExtremes and Disasters to advance will probably be relatively small climate extremes, may result inClimate Change Adaptation (SREX). compared to the normal year-to- some places, such as atolls, beingSigned off by all governments, this year variations in such extremes. increasingly difficult places in whichreport presents the best scientific However, as climate change to live and work3.knowledge on how extremes are becomes more dramatic, its effectchanging, but also how changing on a range of climate extremes will become increasingly important and New Measuresrisks can best be managed. A new balance needs to be struckKey findings from the report will play a more significant role in disaster impacts. between measures to reduceindicate that disaster risk willcontinue to increase in many risk, transfer risk, and effectivelycountries as more vulnerable There is better information on prepare for and manage disasterpeople and assets are exposed what is expected in terms of impact in a changing climate. Thisto weather extremes. Climate changes in extremes in various balance will require a strongerchange has altered the magnitude regions and sub-regions; though for emphasis on anticipation and riskand frequency of some extreme some regions and some extremes reduction.3 Mitchell and van Aalst (2012).Photo courtesy ofthe IPCC Special Report 1
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR ForumIn this context, existing risk A country’s capacity to meet the weather and climate extremes aremanagement measures need to challenges of observed and projected changing, fundamental adjustmentsbe improved as many countries trends in disaster risk is determined are required to avoid the disasterare poorly adapted to current by the effectiveness of their national losses and tipping points. Any delayextremes and risks, let alone those risk management system. Such in greenhouse gas mitigation is likelyprojected for the future. This systems include national and sub- to lead to more severe and frequentwould include, for example, a wide national governments, the private climate extremes in the futurerange of measures such as early sector, research bodies, and civil (Tables 1 and 2).warning systems, land use planning, society, including community-baseddevelopment and enforcement of organizations. There is exciting work underwaybuilding codes, improvements to that demonstrates how integratedhealth surveillance, or ecosystem In a situation where vulnerability and climate risk management ismanagement and restoration. exposure are high, capacity is low, and being implemented. Based on itsTable 1: Observed changes in temperature and precipitation extremes since the 1950sTable 1 shows observed changes in temperature and precipitation extremes, including dryness in regions of Asia since 1950,with the period 1961-1990 used as a baseline (see box 3.1 in Chapter 3 of SREX for more information)Region and Trends in maximum Trends in minimum Trends in heat waves/ Trends in heavy precipitation Trends in drynessSub-region temperature temperature warm spells (rain, snow) and drought (warm and cold days) (warm and cold nights)North Asia Likely increase Likely increase Spatially varying Increase in some Spatially varying in warm days in warm nights trends regions, but spatial trends (decrease cold (decrease cold variation days) nights)Central Asia Likely increase Likely increase Increase in warm Spatially varying Spatially varying in warm days in warm nights spells in a few trends trends (decrease cold (decrease cold areas days) nights) Insufficient evidence in othersEast Asia Likely increase Increase in warm Increase heat Spatially varying Tendency for in warm days nights (decrease wave in China trends increased dryness (decrease cold cold nights) Increase in warm days) spells in northern China, decrease in southern ChinaSoutheast Likely increase Likely increase Insufficient Spatially varying Spatially varyingAsia in warm days in warm nights evidence trends, partial lack trends (decrease cold (decrease cold of evidence days) for northern nights) for northern areas areas Insufficient Insufficient evidence for Malay evidence for Malay Archipelago ArchipelagoSouth Asia Increase in warm Increase in warm Insufficient Mixed signal in Inconsistent signal days (decrease nights (decrease in evidence India for different studies warm days) cold nights) and indicesWestern Asia Very likely increase Likely increase Increase in warm Decrease in heavy Lack of studies, in warm days in warm nights spells precipitation mixed results (decrease in cold (decrease in cold events days more likely nights) than not)Tibetan Likely increase Likely increase Spatially varying Insufficient InsufficientPlateau in warm days in warm nights trends evidence evidence (decrease cold (decrease cold days) nights)2
    • Assessing Risk in a Changing ClimateClimate Risk Management and determines next steps included in to support risk assessment andAdaptation Strategy, the African the Project Concept Note. investment screening.Development Bank (AfDB) hasdeveloped a Climate Safeguards An online tool is currently being In practice, implementation ofSystem to screen projects for piloted before intended roll- such intentions will not always beclimate risk. It targets the early out across all Bank operations. straightforward. Experience fromstages of the project cycle, so that Alongside the online tool, there a range of integrated climate andthe risks can be integrated during will be country Adaptation Profiles DRM programs implemented overproject preparation. Projects are and a knowledge base to guide the past ten years suggest that thecategorized as Category 1: Very investment planning and project key is a combination of promotingvulnerable; Category 2: Potentially preparation. Other institutions are the right instruments, addressingvulnerable; or Category 3: Not taking similar initiatives, including incentives and setting up the rightvulnerable. This classification a range of knowledge portals institutions. Table 1: Projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes, including dryness, in Asia Table 1 shows projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes, including dryness in Asia. The projections are for the period 2071-2100 (compared with 1961-1990) or 2080-2100 (compared with 1980-2000) and are based on GCM and RCM outputs run under the A2/A1B emissions scenario.Region and Trends in maximum Trends in minimum Trends in heat waves/ Trends in heavy precipitation Trends in drynessSub-region temperature (the frequency temperature (the frequency warm spells (rain, snow) and drought of warm and cold days) of warm and cold nights)North Asia Likely increase Likely increase Likely more Likely increase Inconsistent in warm days in warm nights frequent and/or in heavy change (decrease in cold (decrease in cold longer heat waves precipitation for days) nights) and warm spells most regionsCentral Asia Likely increase Likely increase Likely more Inconsistent signal Inconsistent in warm days in warm nights frequent and/or in models change (decrease in cold (decrease in cold longer heat waves days) nights) and warm spellsEast Asia Likely increase Likely increase Likely more Increase in heavy Inconsistent in warm days in warm nights frequent and/or precipitation change (decrease in cold (decrease in cold longer heat waves across the region days) nights) and warm spellsSoutheast Likely increase Likely increase Likely more Inconsistent signal InconsistentAsia in warm days in warm nights frequent and/or of change ac ross change (decrease in cold (decrease in cold longer heat waves most models days) nights) and warm spells (more frequent Low confidence in and intense heav y changes for some precipitation areas suggested over most regions)South Asia Likely increase Likely increase Likely more Slight or no Inconsistent in warm days in warm nights frequent and/or increase in change (decrease in cold (decrease in cold longer heat waves %DP10 index days) nights) and warm spells More frequent and intense heavy precipitation days over parts of S. AsiaWest Asia Likely increase Likely increase Likely more Inconsistent signal Inconsistent in warm days in warm nights frequent and/or of change change (decrease in cold (decrease in cold longer heat waves days) nights) and warm spellsTibetan Likely increase Likely increase Likely more Increase in heavy InconsistentPlateau in warm days in warm nights frequent and/or precipitation change (decrease in cold (decrease in cold longer heat waves days) nights) and warm spells 3
    • QProceedings from the 2012 UR ForumOverlapping mandates and communication. An exciting example agriculture, information about theinstitutional turf battles, for is the use of games for decision- coming season, or the envelopeinstance, between the ministry of makers. These games confront of possible conditions (includingenvironment (often responsible for decision-makers, from local farmers uncertainties) for the comingclimate change), and ministries of to high-level policy-makers with 5-10 years may be much morecivil defense/home affairs (often the costs and benefits of action relevant, and offer pragmatic waysresponsible for DRM) are still or inaction with regards climate to address the rising risks in awasting scarce capacity. Adaptation information (see article on Climate changing climate.and DRM should preferably be Games, p. 44).handled by the same government Contributors to the sessioninstitutions. Overall responsibility Conclusionfor risk management should be Climate science, which has made Co-Session Lead: Ebrimaplaced at a high level institution, great progress, is just one piece Faal, Regional Director, Africanclose to economic planning. Development Bank of the puzzle. It is highly relevantImplementation should fall to the Panelists but often difficult to apply off-respective sectoral ministries, as the-shelf. An essential change of Balgis Osman-Elasha, Climatewell as other relevant actors at Change Adaptation Expert, African mindset, particularly for the climate Development Bank/IPCCdifferent levels. science community is to think Alhamndou Dorsouma, Climate about actionable information, more Change Specialist, AfricanIn that context, risk assessments directly linked to decision-making, Development Bankneed to be actionable for decision- and to produce the relevant Sofia Bettencourt, Leadmakers, from politicians, policy- guidance for interpretation, jointly Operations Officer, World Bankmakers, and donor agencies to with users. Tony Nyong, Head, Gender,traditional leaders and individuals Climate Change and Sustainablein vulnerable areas. Besides simpler One key lesson is to look at the Development Unit, Africanand more tailored forecasts, key climate science products relevant Development Banktools to communicate the message to the timescales for decision- Laban Ogallo, Professor/ Director,should include providing economic making, including not just long- IGAD Climate Prediction andanalyses and risk maps. Applications Center term climate projections, but Alhassane Diallo, Director also seasonal forecasts, historical General African Centre ofPanels of trusted national climate information, and proper Meteorological Application forexperts can play a key role in characterization of historical Developmentconvincing policy-makers at the variability. James Kisia,Deputy Secretarynational level. At the local level, General, Kenya Red Crossit requires engagement with Long-term trends may be relevant Youcef Ait-Chellouche, Deputytrusted intermediaries, such as for longer-term infrastructure Regional Coordinator, Unitedcommunity leaders. A strong focus investments. For many other Nations International Strategy forshould be on awareness raising and decisions, for instance in Disaster ReductionFurther Resources IPCC SREX: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/srex Useful SREX interpretation, including regional summaries: www.cdkn.org/srex AfDB climate safeguards system: http://72.26.119.91:8080/GCAP-CSS/afdbhomepage.html;jsessionid=E3E362D500C7 567533667683896C9795 Red Cross and Red Crescent Climate Center: http://www.climatecentre.org/4
    • Q&A  Honorable Patricia de Lille Interview with Mayor of Cape Town, South AfricaHow do we make disaster risk assessment as attractive to decision-makersand donors as disaster response?The benefit of a disaster risk assessment is that it provides one with a risk profileof the hazards that could impact your City. It allows one to take remedial actionand be pro-active so that the impact of the hazard can be mitigated and reduced.Very often the funds allocated to remedial risk reduction action will be less thanthe funds that will be allocated for dealing with the aftermath of a disaster, e.g.ensuring appropriate drainage systems are installed in preparation for the rainyseason, versus dealing with flood damage and relocations of communities.What is the most effective way to engage a Minister of Finance to startthinking about and allocating resources for risk assessment?It will be helpful to point out that the risk assessment is a diagnostic tool thatenables one to gauge what the risk profile of your City is. The risk assessment isuseful in that it provides one with a strategic risk profile of the hazards that couldimpact the City. Therefore funds spent on this risk assessment initiative amounts tomoney well spent, as it identifies the hazards that could impact the City, and allowsone the opportunity to undertake remedial risk reduction action, i.e. how to lessenthe impact of the hazard by formulating a disaster management plan, preparednessmeasures, and technical and engineering interventions, etc.In your career, what event (large or small) have you been most proud to havebeen involved with?In the City of Cape Town there is a high incidence rate of fires in informalsettlements. In an effort to reduce the risk of fires in these informal settlements, Idonated funds from my office for the purchase of 1000 fire extinguishers that wereprovided to households in the Joe Slovo Informal Settlement, Langa. A day was setaside where I visited the community in December 2011, and with the assistance ofthe Fire Service and Disaster Management, a demonstration was provided how thefire extinguishers should be used. A fire was lit as part of the demonstration, and Iused the fire extinguisher to supress the fire, indicating to the community how easyit could be done to avoid fire spread. The media was also invited to this event. 5
    • Photo: Aerial view of the Japanese ground self-defense force and disaster relief crews. Credit: Thinkstock.com
    • Thinking about theUnthinkable 7
    • ICELAND USA JAPAN PAKISTAN PHILIPPINES INDONESIADr. Kenneth L. Verosub,Distinguished Professor,University of California (UC) DavisFor the 2012 Understanding Risk (UR) Forum a distinction was made betweenBlack Swans and White Whales. Black Swans were events that no one everexpected would happen; White Whales were events that we knew were out therebut were thought to be extremely rare. unthinkable event, we run the riskI n the two years since then, the find it difficult to appreciate how distinction between Black Swans the interconnected complexities of of overconfidence. We assume and White Whales has become modern society are amplified under we can extrapolate from whatless distinct because, more often extreme conditions. In the language we know and what we’ve alreadythan not, it turns out that at least of structural engineering, under seen to what we think will happen.someone somewhere has predicted such conditions, the response of This overconfidence can manifestany given Black Swan event. Even the system becomes non-linear, and itself in different ways: we do notthe archetypal Black Swan event, the when that happens, models based think more research is required;bringing down of the Twin Towers in on a linear response simply fail. we believe our existing tools will beNew York City, was on the radar of adequate for the job; we select thesome security analysts. Hurricane Katrina, for example, wrong people (risk and insurance pushed New Orleans to the point managers) to do the analysis; weThus for the 2012 UR Forum, we that the existing dysfunctionalities base our decisions on the wrongchose to label all extreme events of the city (in the areas of factors (profits); and/or we arewith the simple generic term of governance, planning, poverty motivated by the wrong reasons“unthinkable” and to address the levels, emergency response, law (liability and public relations).deeper question of how we could enforcement, etc.) combined withhelp decision-makers think about a devastating hurricane, had an Another part of the answer isthe unthinkable. overwhelming impact on the city. that too often we think only in Barry Commoner’s First Law of terms of top-down responses. The Ecology (“Everything is connected first responders in any disasterThe Challenge of to everything else)” applies here. or emergency are the people whoThinking about the The difficulties that the United are directly affected by it. Part ofUnthinkable States military had in providing what prepares them to respond isWhy is it so difficult for officials, ready-to-eat meals (MREs) to the ability to draw upon traditionaladministrators, planners and the population of New Orleans wisdom as well as immediatepeople, in general, to think about was directly related to America’s situational awareness. For example,the unthinkable? Part of the involvement in a war in Iraq, to several communities affected byanswer is that no one wants to which most of the available MREs the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004hear about how bad things could be. had already been sent. had relatively few fatalities becauseHowever, a larger problem is that they had an oral tradition thatmany people, including disaster risk Even when we try to grasp the told them to flee inland when themanagement (DRM) practitioners, enormity of the impact of an waters receded.8
    • Thinking about the UnthinkableThe final part of the answer is that earthquake triggered the tsunami the entire length of the Indus River.we need a new perspective for and the tsunami in turn triggered The flooding directly affected 20dealing with unthinkable events. A the nuclear meltdown. million people and caused economiccareful reading of historical records losses of almost $50 billion. Inprovides clues as to what kinds of In terms of the tectonics, the terms of the bestiary, this would beunthinkable events might be lurking initial earthquake was caused a domino event. As the flood waveout there. by simultaneous rupture on moved downstream, it affected six adjacent segments of an different areas in different ways,We also need to develop a oceanic fault, which generated an but the net result was a cumulativevocabulary or “bestiary” to describe earthquake with a magnitude of 8.9. humanitarian and economic disaster.unthinkable events. There are Prior to this, the maximum thataspects of certain unthinkable anyone had expected was that at An example of a compound eventevents that are similar, and most three segments of the fault is the 1991 eruption of Mounthaving a better way to describe could rupture simultaneously. Pinatubo, Philippines, that coincidedthose similarities could help in with a typhoon passing by theunderstanding the risks and Analysis of the historical record volcano, resulting in a lethal mix ofplanning for them. indicates that in 869 A.D. the same ash and rain. Tens of thousands region was hit by a large tsunami, of people were evacuated and the generated by what is estimated surrounding areas were severelyLessons Learned from to have been a magnitude 8.6 damaged by pyroclastic flows,Recent Unthinkable earthquake with a return period ash deposits, and subsequently,Events of about 1000 years. Therefore, by the lahars caused by the rain,Since the UR Forum in 2010, the the information was out there, but destroying infrastructures andworld has experienced several insufficiently incorporated into the altering the river systems.unthinkable events. Perhaps the thinking of those trying to assessmost impressive was the 2011 the risk. Another example would be the heatTohoku earthquake and tsunami in wave that affected Washington,Japan and the subsequent nuclear Another unthinkable event was the D.C. earlier this summer. The heatemergency at the Fukushima Daiishi flooding in Pakistan in 2010, which wave itself would probably havenuclear facility. In the language of began with very intense rainfall in been manageable, but it coincidedthe bestiary, this would be classified the northwest of the country and with a regional outbreak of severeas a cascade event since the eventually led to inundation along thunderstorms that caused massive 1 Domino event: An initial set of impacts leads to another set of impacts, which leads to another set, and so on. ry A Bestia 2 Cascade event: The impact of an initial event is exacerbated ibe to Descr by the impact of a second, and/or even a third event. ble Unthinka 3 Compound event: Two separate phenomena, neither of Events which is inherently out of the ordinary, combine to produce an extraordinary event. 4 Perfect storm event: A series of elements come together in just the right way to produce an unthinkable event. 9
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR Forum2010 Eruption of the Eyjafjallajokull volcano in Iceland. Photo: Thinkstock.com.power outages. The pairing of was just enough to carry the ash to unthinkable event. One such scenariothese two phenomena did not quite altitudes that were crossed by the could be a massive global foodcause an unthinkable event, but it flight paths of commercial aircraft. crisis. In one sense, this is not suchis not hard to imagine that a slightly And the ash was injected into a an “unthinkable” event; there arelonger heat wave and a slightly stagnant weather pattern that held warnings that continued warmingmore severe power disruption the ash over northern and central due to global climate change couldcould well have had a much greater Western Europe for weeks. lead to a global food crisis. But it isimpact. Moreover, one could also “unthinkable” in the sense that mostview this event as a precursor for If any one of these conditions decision-makers are confident thatfuture unthinkable events in which had not occurred, there would the global agricultural economy, andsevere heat as a manifestation of have been no significant impact its complex network for growing andglobal climate change combines with on aviation or the global/regional distributing food, has the resiliencewidespread power outages caused economy at large. In fact, a to weather any shock to the system.by the recognized vulnerabilities of year later Grimsvotn volcanothe electrical grid system. erupted in Iceland under similar Our thesis is that this represents circumstances, except that it gross overconfidence that theA perfect storm event would be missed a stagnant weather pattern system will respond linearly to largethe shutdown of European air by three days and had no significant events and that because it hastraffic in 2010 as a result of the impact on aviation. been able to cope with previouseruption of the Eyjafjallajokull smaller events it will also be able tovolcano in Iceland. In that case, Scenario for an cope with a larger one.the volcano erupted through a Unthinkable Event:glacier in just the right way to Global Food Crisis This summer the most severeproduce large amounts of unusually It is clear that different factors can threat to global agriculture hasfine ash. The force of the eruption come together to create a particular been the massive drought in the10
    • Thinking about the UnthinkableUnited States and Eastern Europe, the global agricultural system. A to create a situation where notthe failed monsoon in India, and massive volcanic eruption, especially enough food is being produced and/severe rains in Brazil. As a result of one near a major rice-producing or what is produced is not beingthese factors, prices on the global region on the Pacific Rim, could collected and distributed properly.grain market have risen significantly. blanket a region with a heavy layerClimate change also indicates of volcanic ash, shutting down We may be closer to the secondthat the combined challenges to agriculture production completely. condition than we realize: recentagriculture from weather-related studies indicate that 30-50% of thephenomena are likely to be more A more global impact could result food produced globally is wastedfrequent and severe. Even if this from an eruption like the one in 1815 for one reason or another. Theyear does not produce a global food from Mount Tambora in Indonesia. multiplicity of pathways shows thatcrisis, it certainly demonstrates That eruption injected sulfur dioxide picking one particular pathway andthe potential for several weather- into the upper atmosphere, and the preparing for it is not likely to be arelated events to come together to sulfur combined with water vapor worthwhile exercise.Our thesis is that this represents gross overconfidence that the system willrespond linearly to large events and that because it has been able to cope withprevious smaller events it will also be able to cope with a larger one.create a compound event resulting to form droplets of sulfuric acid What is needed instead is a flexiblein a global food crisis. that created a veil, blocking sunlight and resilient response structure and reducing surface temperatures that is capable of dealing with all ofA rise in grain prices also produces causing food shortages. In 1816 the ways that a given crisis or seta rise in meat prices and could Europe and North America of crises might manifest itself. Thattranslate into frustrated experienced a “year without summer,” is how we need to start thinkingexpectations about the cost and resulting in massive food shortages about the unthinkable.availability of food in general. This and subsequent disease outbreaks.could lead to political unrest, which Just as the Eyjafjalljokull eruptioncould, in turn, affect the system disrupted passenger transportation, Contributors to the sessionthat gathers and distributes food an eruption could impact the foodin a given country. This cascade of distribution network. Carl Taylor, Executive Director,events, if repeated simultaneously Fraser Institute for Healthin many countries, as occurred Thus, there are many pathways to Researchduring the Arab Spring, could also a global food crisis, some of them Gavin Macgregor-Skinner, Assistant Professor, Departmenttrigger a global food crisis. are more likely to occur, others of Public Health Sciences, College are less likely, but it’s not hard to of Medicine, Pennsylvania StateNatural hazards could also imagine some combination of them Universitycontribute to the disruption of coming together in a perfect stormFurther Resources Scott-Morgan, P. (2012). The Reality of Global Crises: Why Good Beginnings Are Ending Badly and Leaving World-Leaders Increasingly Powerless, CreateSpace Hubbard, D.W. (2009). The Failure of Risk Management-Why Its Broken and How to Fix It, Farrar, Straus and Giroux Taleb, N. (2007). The Black Swan-The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Random House Trade Paperbacks Sagarin, R. D., Taylor, T. (2008). Natural Security: A Darwinian Approach to a Dangerous World, University of California Press Savage, S. L. (2012). The Flaw of Averages-Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty, Wiley Jost, C.C., Mariner, J.C., Roeder, P.L., Sawitri, E., Macgregor-Skinner, G.J. (2007). Participatory Epidemiology in Disease Surveillance and Research, http://www.oie.int/doc/ged/D4693.PDF 11
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    • MEXICO MALAWI SOUTH AFRICA Advancing RiskDr. Olivier Mahul,Program Coordinator& Laura Boudreau, AssessmentAnalyst, Disaster RiskFinancing and InsuranceProgram, World Bank for Financial Applications We all have our talents. For the disaster risk management (DRM) community, evidence suggests that reducing mortality risk from disasters is one of them: Mortality risk associated with weather-related hazards is declining globally, despite the rapid increase in population exposure to such hazards4. Likewise, we all have our low- and middle-income countries. weaknesses. And although DRM As a percentage of Gross Domestic practitioners may shine at saving Product (GDP), however, they are lives, we have fared much worse significantly higher in the latter6. with reducing economic losses: Globally, the risk of losing wealth in Moreover, a significantly smaller a disaster is increasing at a faster share of the losses incurred in pace than wealth is being created5. developing countries is typically Increasing economic strength insured; thus, the economic burden around the world is failing of these events is borne almost to translate into lower economic entirely by the households and the loss risk. governments of these countries (Figure 1). Often, households I n absolute terms, post disaster and governments do not fully losses in countries forming the understand their exposure and may Organization for Economic Co- not secure adequate resources and/ operation and Development (OECD) or purchase insurance to prepare are much greater than those in for disasters. 4 UNISDR (2011). 5 Ibid. 6 Cummins and Mahul (2010). 13
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR Forum Figure 1: Insured versus uninsured losses from recent disaster events 100 90 Total economic losses (%) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 ) ) 0) ) 5) ) 4) 4) ) 9) ) 9) ) ) ) ) ) 2) ) ) ) 06 10 10 01 85 98 95 11 11 10 03 11 11 99 01 00 00 00 99 99 99 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 2 2 i2 i2 1 1 r1 EQ Q ds t ir or ty it h ia be ku d Q ina ds h ar m m idg ra lan itc rc m m (E (E en th Ci ad loo loo na na ho Ko tr ( ja sh hu Iz M hr m ia iti ile ns Lo lv ico Gu su su Ka To (F (F Ka es Q tc Ar Ha rt EQ Sa Ch U ee (T (T (E ex rm n d Q n ris (H No U EQ Q Qu Q y( an ta do (E n an sia (H M n to (E Ch (E Sa as ( pa kis e Q ailIn e n ne dia ds Q A (S rk n (E ur Oc bia pa Th Ja Q EQ Pa (E US ta do loo Tu In nd ce (E A Ja lom n kis ico r( US In dia an (F Ho nd do Pa ex Co Fr lia ala In lva M ra Ze Sa st w Au El Ne Source: World Bank Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program (2012). n Insured losses n Uninsured losses Figure 2: World Bank framework for improving financial resilience to disasters events Financial resilience to disasters Sovereign Disaster Risk Financing Catastrophe Risk Market Development Assessment of contingent liability Insurance of public infrastructure Post-disaster budget response capacity Property catastrophe risk insurance Agricultural insurance Based on financial disaster risk assessment and modeling Disaster microinsurance Source: World Bank Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program (2012). Financial disaster risk assessment A financial risk assessment forms the sovereign level to assess elucidates economic risk from the basis of taking a proactive the government’s contingent disasters, enables the development approach to managing financial liability to disasters, and to of appropriate disaster risk risk from disasters and improving devise strategies to improve the financing and insurance (DRFI) financial resilience (Figure 2). government’s post-disaster budget strategies, and allows for risk In the World Bank framework, response capacity while protecting transfer to the private sector. financial risk assessment and its long-term fiscal balance. modeling can be applied at 14
    • Advancing Risk AssessmentIt can also be applied to inform the costs, and an understanding of disasters, allows for an improved,design and pricing of catastrophe macroeconomic conditions. targeted approach to post-disasterinsurance products, facilitating the response, and can contribute todevelopment of catastrophe risk Based on an understanding of the development of the privateinsurance markets. its fiscal disaster risk profile, the insurance sector (Figure 3). government can then develop aMacro-level Risk DRFI strategy that combines ex Developing a sovereign disaster risk ante and ex post instruments. financing strategy is a long-termInformation, effort and an iterative process,Assessment, and Developing ex ante instruments as illustrated by the experienceFinancing addresses multiple issues posed by of Mexico. By the mid-2000s, theDeveloping a Sovereign complete or overreliance on ex post Government of Mexico (GoM)Disaster Risk Financing sources of financing (a common had some elements of a disasterStrategy - Mexico problem in developing countries), risk financing strategy in place: aAt the sovereign level, a financial such as limited borrowing capacity, national disaster fund (FONDEN),risk assessment is a primary narrow tax bases for internal insurance policies for someinput into a fiscal risk assessment resource mobilization, and slow infrastructure, and starting inof disaster risk. It entails an pace of external support. 2006, a parametric catastropheassessment of expected losses to bond covering specific zones of thethe government’s fiscal portfolio The development of an ex ante country for earthquake risk7.(for example, public buildings, disaster risk financing strategyinfrastructure, low-income relying on a combination of risk The GoM realized, though, thathousing, etc.), an analysis of retention and transfer brings to understand how well it washistorical spending on emergency important benefits. This approach protected relative to its exposureand other response and recovery improves economic management of and to move toward a stronger, Figure 3: Disaster risk financing strategy combining risk retention and transfer tools Disaster Risk Finacing Disaster Risks Instruments Low Major High Risk Layer Disaster Risk Insurance (e.g., major earthquake, (e.g., Parametric insurance, cat bond) major tropical cyclone) Frequency of Event Severity of Impact Medium Risk Layer Contingent credit (e.g., floods, small earthquake) Low Risk Layer Contingent budget, (e.g., localized floods, landslides) reserves, annual budget allocation High MinorSource: Ghesquiere and Mahul (2010).7 A parametric catastrophe bond or insurance product makes indemnity payments based not on an assessment of the policyholder’s losses, but rather on measures of a parametric index (e.g., wind speed, earthquake intensity) that is assumed to proxy actual losses. 15
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR Forumex ante DRM approach required an high impact events. Probabilistic additional risk analysis to improveessential element: Information. catastrophe risk modeling the effectiveness and efficiency of techniques estimate these losses, FONDEN.Starting in 2007, the Ministry of allowing for the quantification ofFinance, in collaboration with the expected losses from devastating Developing FinancialUniversidad Nacional Autónoma de Products - Malawi events. Beyond informing the design ofMéxico and Agrosemex, the state- a disaster risk financing strategy,owned insurance company, began to Based on its improved improved risk information andimprove its information on hazards understanding of its catastrophe assessment is used to develop andin Mexico (starting with earthquake risk profile, the GoM began to implement the products comprisingand hurricane), and on the exposure update its risk financing approach, the strategy.of public assets and low-income starting with the top risk layershousing to these hazards. (Figure 4). In 2009, the GoM issued In Malawi, for example, the a second parametric catastrophe government has implemented aThe partners developed a multi- bond, and starting in 2011, an weather derivative program relyinghazard probabilistic risk model to excess-of-loss insurance contract on an index that relates rainfallestimate losses from disasters was placed to protect FONDEN data with a maize productionto Mexico’s portfolio of public from major losses (the contract model (Figure 5). The weatherassets. A probabilistic approach uses FONDEN’s damage evaluations derivative program is part of theto catastrophe risk assessment is for the adjustment procedure). country’s broader agricultural riskessential for disaster risk financing management strategy; one of theas historical records typically More recently, the GoM has primary objectives of the program islack the impacts of potential started working through lower to improve drought risk assessmentmajor losses from low probability, risk layers and is conducting and early warning tools. The macro- Figure 4: Mexico’s evolving disaster risk financing strategy US$ mil Contingent Credit Lines/FONDEN XoL Scheme/Multi Cat/FONDEN 1,040 FONDEN FONDEN 350 FONDEN FONDEN Traditional Insurance 160 Parametric Insurance Traditional Insurance Deducible 40 Traditional Retention FONDEN Insurance 15 Deducible Deducible Schools Roads/bridges Low-income Health housing Infrastructure Source: Lobato (2012).16
    • Advancing Risk Assessment Figure 5: Structure of the 2011-12 Malawi weather derivative Type of Contract Put Option Premium $US 499,950 90% Trigger Level Maximum Payout $US 4.41 million Payout per commodity index unit $US 147,000 Start Date October 1, 2011 Final Date April 30, 2012 Strike 105 below average index value (90) Payout No Payout Transaction Flow Premium Premium Market Government of World Bank Counterparty Payout Payout Malawi (MoF) Data Verification Data Provider Data Verification Source: Kachingwe (2012).level weather derivative provides Regional Risk Pooling In the case of the ARC, partfinancial protection against severe Initiatives - Africa Risk of the goal of the Facility is todrought impacting the country’s Capacity transfer ownership of DRM frommaize harvest. One risk financing option available the international community to to Malawi and other African African governments by reducingThe parametric nature of the countries is the African Risk dependence on ex post donorproduct means that it eliminates Capacity (ARC) project being assistance. One of the primarythe need for on-site assessment advanced by the African Union ways that the ARC will helpof maize yields. When the modeled (AU). The ARC will be a regional governments to take ownership risk pooling facility owned by the of their risk is by providing themmaize production (based on actual AU that will provide participating with improved information basedrainfall data) falls below 90 % of the countries with quick-disbursing on the AfricaRiskView softwarelong-term average, the contract will funds in case of drought. tool. AfricaRiskView generatesbegin to payout to the government. modeled drought response costsThe maximum amount that the Participation in a regional approach based on satellite weather data andgovernment could receive under the as part of a country’s disaster risk the model’s internal parameters. Itcontract is US$4.41 million. allows governments to quantify the financing strategy can provide numerous benefits and address the expected annual costs of droughtThe derivative has been transacted response as well as expected trans-boundary nature of manyfour times starting in 2008 but has hazards. Significant economies of response costs for extreme droughts.not yet been triggered, although scale may be created when riskit came especially close during financing solutions are developed With this information, athe past year. In this context, at the regional level. These include government can improve itsthe government is reviewing its both potential risk pooling benefits contingency planning to quicklymodeling approach and assessing and reduced operating costs. These execute funds to enact an earlyalternative approaches, as well as vehicles can also efficiently leverage response, and it can take aconfronting broader policy questions the international reinsurance and proactive approach to financialon the continuation of the program. capital markets. management of droughts. 17
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR ForumRisk Assessment for the sale of reliable, cost-efficient for South Africans. The partners insurance products. plan to collaborate on riskCatastrophe Risk assessment, which will benefitInsurance Market Public-private partnerships (PPPs) both the government and localDevelopment are an effective approach to communities due to improvedRisk assessment is also an essential establish sustainable and affordable understanding of disaster risk,input to the design of catastrophe catastrophe risk insurance markets. as well as provide insurers withinsurance products at the micro- In South Africa, the South Africa the information required to offerlevel. Insurance companies rely Insurance Association (SAIA) and effective, appropriately pricedon analysis of expected losses the National Disaster Management insurance products.from disasters to form the base of Center (NDMC) are engaged in acatastrophe insurance policy pricing. PPP to address the increasing level Conclusion of systemic risk from disasters in Countries interested in advancingHowever, the design and pricing of the country. risk assessment for financialcatastrophe insurance products is applications will face numeroustechnically complex and insurers The SAIA and the NDMC signed a challenges but can also reapin developing countries may lack Memorandum of Agreement for many benefits (including fortechnical capacity to underwrite activities including risk mitigation, additional applications) from thiscatastrophe risk. The significant sharing data and knowledge, investment.upfront financial investment improving education on disasters,required for catastrophe risk and increasing access to insuranceassessment can also be adeterrent. Contributors to the sessionIn this context, one way that the Co-Session Lead: Ken Terry, Head, National Disaster Management Centre, Government of South Africagovernment can help catalyze Panelistsinsurance market growth is through Markus Schrader, Counselor, Swiss Economic Cooperation & Development,the provision of basic risk market South Africainfrastructure as public goods, such Manuel Lobato, Former Head, Insurance, Pension, and Social Security,as catastrophe risk assessment Ministry of Finance, Mexicoand pricing, product development, Debbie Donaldson, General Manager of Strategy and Planning, South Africaunderwriting and loss adjustment Insurance Associationprocedures, and distribution Daisi Kachingwe, Risk Management Unit, Malawi Ministry of Agriculturechannels. This support can promote Neil Cole, Chief Director, African Economic Integration, National Treasury, Government of South Africamarket growth, building domestic Anthony Julies, Chief Director, Strategy and Risk Management, Nationalinsurers’ capacity while supporting Treasury, Government of South Africa Further Resources World Bank-GFDRR Disaster Risk Financing & Insurance Program: http://www.gfdrr.org/gfdrr/DRFI Willis Research Network: http://www.willisresearchnetwork.com/ Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center: http://www.wharton.upenn.edu/riskcenter/ Government of Mexico & World Bank. 2012. Improving the Assessment of Disaster Risks to Strengthen Financial Resilience. Washington, DC: World Bank. Cummins, D., and O. Mahul. 2010. Catastrophe risk financing in developing countries: Principles for public intervention. Washington, DC: World Bank. Ghesquiere, F. and O. Mahul. 2010. Financial Protection of the State Against Natural Disasters. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper #5429. Washington DC, World Bank.18
    • Advancing Risk Assessment For countries seeking to advance risk assessment for financial applications, some essential considerations include:1 Identify what question needs to be answered, and how to get there. Before starting a risk assessment, the end-users should identify what question(s) require answering: Is the goal to identify the expected losses from disasters on a portfolio of assets? Is the goal to be able to design a risk financing and transfer strategy for those assets? The goal of the risk assessment will help to inform the approach and the respective responsibilities of different entities involved. For the government, this may require building catastrophe risk modeling expertise of relevant specialized agencies while increasing capacity of the different ministries to use the outputs for their own purposes. A ministry of finance, for example, requires expertise on using the outputs of a catastrophe risk assessment as an input into financial analysis of its disaster risk financing strategy, rather than expertise on catastrophe risk assessment.2 Adopt an iterative approach to disaster risk assessment and financing. As illustrated by the cases of Mexico and Malawi, it is possible for a government to engage in disaster risk financing and insurance in parallel with improving its risk information and assessment. The government can protect itself in the short-term by budgeting for disasters based on previous experience, considering soft- triggering instruments (for example, contingent credit), and taking a parametric approach to risk transfer. Then, as additional information becomes available the government can periodically adjust its coverage and consider more indemnity-based insurance.3 Collaborate and share risk information across stakeholders. Regardless of the stakeholders involved, advancing risk assessment for financial applications is a collaborative effort requiring information sharing. For example, a government that seeks to design and implement a disaster risk financing strategy based on in-house assessment of the exposure of public assets to disaster risk and the expected losses generated will likely need to collaborate with the ministry of finance, national disaster risk management agency, lines ministries holding exposure data, meteorological, geological, and other institutions holding hazard data, and others. Public-private partnerships (PPPs) can be especially valuable in this area. 19
    • GAR 2011Photo:© Ben Heys | Dreamstime.com20
    • niger malawi MozambiqueThe Global AssessmentReport [GAR]Julio Serje, Program Officer, The Global Assessment Report (GAR) on Disaster RiskUnited Nations International Reduction (DRR) is a resource for understanding andStrategy for Disaster Reduction analyzing global disaster risk today and in the future. The GAR team is now engaged inS ince 2009, the United Nations overview of the progress on the International Strategy for the production of the third edition work done for the upcoming GAR13. Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) of the report that will be used to Specifically, the session focused onhas published two editions of feed the discussions of the Global the area of drought risk assessment,the GAR: the first one in 2009 Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction, a highly relevant topic in the African(GAR09) was launched by the in Geneva, May 2013. Drawing on context and an area that stillUN Secretary General in Bahrain, new and enhanced data, the report remains less well understood.and the second (GAR11) was the explores trends in disaster risk for each region and for countriesbackground document for the Global Highlights from with different socioeconomicPlatform on Disaster Risk Reduction development. At the same time, over GAR 11held in Geneva in June 2011. The Global Risk Update, a risk 130 governments are engaged in assessment of five major hazards self-assessments of their progressGAR09 focused on the nexus that was conducted as part of the towards the Hyogo Framework forbetween disaster risk and poverty scientific activities of GAR09 and Action (HFA), contributing to whatin the context of global climate GAR11, provided for the first time is now the most complete globalchange. The 2011 edition “Revealing a seamlessly integrated point of overview of national efforts toRisk, Redefining Development” reference and baseline data for the reduce disaster risklooked at DRR as an integral part of global community on disaster risk.development, highlighting the political During the 2012 Understandingand economic imperative to reduce Risk (UR) Forum, the GAR session GAR11 reviewed how governmentsdisaster risks, and the benefits to showcased the results of GAR11, are scaling up disaster riskbe gained from doing so. The report with a special focus on the management (DRM) by adaptingoffers guidance and suggestions to recommendations that provided existing development instruments,governments and nongovernmental specific and tangible suggestions on such as national planning, publicactors alike on how they can, how to mainstream risk knowledge investment systems, and socialtogether, reduce disaster risks. into development, and provided an protection mechanisms. 21
    • QProceedings from the 2012 UR Forum fed crops were derived using a geo- risk model for the world, addressing spatial, stand-alone implementation gaps in current knowledge on risk Revealing Risk, of the Water Requirements patterns and trends, will provide Redefining Development Satisfaction Index – GeoWRSI,8 accurate and credible information currently being implemented for the global DRR community. by the United States Geological A Focus on Drought Survey (USGS) for the Famine Early Risk Assessment: Several Warning System (FEWSNET). methodological approaches to Global Assessment Report measure and locate drought hazard on Disaster Risk Reduction An innovative technique of using and drought risk are being tested. Disaster Loss Databases to construct United Nations hybrid risk models was presented. Progress towards the Hyogo The hybrid risk model is built by Framework of Action (HFA):The global risk trends from the constructing two loss exceedance The 2011–2013 HFA Progressreport indicate that in recent curves: one derived empirically from Review is a continued and enhanceddecades, countries in all regions recorded disaster losses, and the monitoring of progress by countrieshave strengthened their capacity other derived analytically (for major and regions against the objectivesto reduce risks associated with hazards, such as earthquakes and and priorities for action of the HFA,major weather-related hazards, tropical cyclones). including through regional and sub-such as tropical cyclones and floods, national level assessments.and that mortality risk relative to Systematically collected datapopulation size is also falling. The Role of the Private Sector about the impact of disasters is in DRR: Policy research on the evaluated to obtain consistentHowever, unlike risks associated business case for DRR, including economic loss values of all scales.with tropical cyclones and floods, scoping studies on pilot industry-led From a statistically significantthose associated with drought are and -agreed standards on DRR for database a Loss Exceedance Curvenot as well understood and remain a number of key sectors, industries can be obtained, which in turn cana “hidden risk” and an area that and services. be ‘merged’ to the curve resultingrequires further focus. from a probabilistic risk assessment, Contributors to the session creating in this way a ‘ Hybrid’ curveDuring the session a quantitative with a much wider spectrum ofapproach to measure the potential Session Lead: Andrew Maskrey, intensities and frequencies. Global Assessment Reportlosses (risk) due to drought based Coordinator, UN Internationalon several historical data sources Strategy for Disaster Reductionand probabilistic modeling was GAR 13 Panelists Features of the 2013 GAR Report Wadid Erian, Head of Landpresented, looking at case studies include: Resources Studies Program andfrom Malawi, Mozambique and Remote Sensing, Arab Center forNiger. Drought Loss Exceedance An Improved Global Risk the Study of Arid Zones and Dry LandsProbability Curves for principal rain Update: An enhanced probabilistic Harikishan Jayanthi, Specialist, University of California, Santa Barbara8 See: http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/fews/geowrsi.phpFurther Resources http://www.unisdr.org http://www.preventionweb.net22
    • Q&A Interview with Alan Knott-Craig Jr. CEO, World of AvatarWhat recent innovations in the field of risk assessment will have thelargest impact over the next 10 years?The advent of “big data” will lead to massive improvements in themanagement of risk by allowing the recognition of patterns far inadvance of major events.An underrated and overlooked tool for risk assessment is dataanalytics using social network datasets. These tools allow you topredict behavior well in advance of action.If you were in the elevator with your country’s President/PrimeMinister and only had 30 seconds to convince her/him of theimportance of risk assessment, what would you say?“Picture a global financial recession, spanning a minimum of 5years, all because government didn’t understand the risk offinancial instruments.”What are the most significant challenges - both operationally andpolitically - to mainstreaming risk assessment and the Disaster RiskManagement (DRM) agenda in your county?Where do I start! We have bigger problems… I thinkmainstreaming is unrealistic. For now it’s about getting into thehead of policy-makers.Alan Knott-Craig Jr., CEO, World of AvatarAlan is the founder and CEO of World of Avatar, a developer of mobileapplications for Africans. Between 2003 and 2006 co-founded five companiesin the mobile telecoms sector. In 2006 appointed managing director of iBurst,the third largest wireless broadband network in South Africa. In April 2008published Don’t Panic, persuading South Africans to come home. In June 2008founded The Trust, an NGO focused on assisting charities access skills andcapital. In 2009 nominated as a Young Global Leader by the World EconomicForum. Alan is a qualified Chartered Accountant (SA.) 23
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR Forum
    • EL SALVADOR YEMEN INDONESIA PACIFICNew Tools and Methodologiesfor Building DisasterResilience: Moving from RiskAssessment to Mitigation“If we get this right, if we actually connect our science Dr. Trevor Dhu,to decision-making, we can save lives.” Risk and Vulnerability Manager, AusAID scientists, policy-makers andT he ultimate goal of disaster Three Key risk reduction (DRR) efforts, communities to ensure we are Characteristics including risk assessments, making evidence-based decisionsis to build the resilience of of Successful Risk across a range of DRR and climate Assessmentscommunities. This requires change adaptation (CCA) actions 1) Risk Assessments Must Becommunities and government, from and investments. Clear: In order for risk assessmentslocal to national, and across different to affect change they mustsectors such as finance, planning and At the 2012 Understanding Risk articulate risks in the language ofinfrastructure, to own and share a (UR) Forum the focus of the session the relevant decision-makers. Thiscommon and robust understanding takes more than just a well-written was framed around the question ofof risk; and to take responsibility and glossy report; risk assessmentsfor managing and, where possible, whether a better understanding of must be carefully targeted to amitigating these risks. risk automatically leads to better specific decision-maker and a specific decisions and tangible actions. set of problems.One of the major challenges facedby all risk assessment professionals Turning risk assessments into action In the case of the Pacificis how to bridge the gap between is complex but it can be done. Catastrophe Risk and FinancingQuestions posed during the UR Forum to the Panel: Can technology make risk analysis How do we take advantage of How do we get the full value from easier, or do we run the risk of the emerging culture of open our scientific efforts and ensurehaving a more rigorous understanding data and open source software, and that better knowledge is reachingof risk without community ownership leverage off new ways to encourage communities and governments in a wayand subsequent action? participatory mapping, to ensure that is easily understood, believed and, that communities and all levels of above all, acted upon? government effectively use new science to guide their actions, andPhoto: Sacramento, California. advocate for increased DRR? 25
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR Forum Initiative (PCRAFI) the success of outlined that there is not only demonstrate a rigorous, scientific this program in influencing policies an imminent threat of tsunami approach and are clear about their and decisions was underpinned by in Padang in the next 50 years, uncertainties will not change policies, the focus on ensuring that the but that this event could kill over processes, or actions.. results of this risk assessment 39,000 people and destroy critical were clearly articulated and infrastructure such as ports and In El Salvador, the Ministry of were relevant to the specific airports. The plan includes a range the Environment and Natural problem that decision-makers of innovative actions for protecting Resource’s demonstrated that understood and could therefore people from future tsunami across the first step in affecting change take action on. Articulating the all of Indonesia. is to have credible evidence risk in unambiguous terms, such and information to share. By as the potential dollar costs of The ability to articulate risks in undertaking one of San Salvador’s disasters resulted in a significant clear-cut terms that immediately most rigorous and comprehensive engagement, uptake, and action by and clearly connect to decision- earthquake risk assessments, the government (see Box 1). makers has led to a genuine the Ministry is now in a position commitment to action. to work with a broad range of Similarly, in Indonesia, the National stakeholders to prioritize and take Disaster Management Agency 2) Risk Assessments Must Be action. This action includes classical developed a draft Tsunami master Credible: The ability for anyone ways of improving building safety plan based on the overwhelming to make decisions based on a risk through refining and improving tsunami risk information from assessment will be heavily influenced the quality of building codes. It Padang, West Sumatra. In this by their trust and belief in the is also allowing engagement with case, risk assessments have results. Assessments that do not other Government ministries on Box 1: Risk Identification: Assessing Risk Region-Wide in the Pacific. How to improve understanding of risk in the Pacific? “No way around it, you have got to put dollars on the table” This simple message from the World Bank’s Michael Bonte-Grapentin was seen as a key factor in ensuring comprehensive risk assessments, such as the Pacific Catastrophe RiskPhoto: Carlo Iacovino and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI) reformed policies around risk financing in the Pacific. PCRAFI created the largest collection of geospatial information on disaster risks available for Pacific Island countries. The platform includes detailed country information on assets, population, hazards, and risks. The first phase of the program conducted detailed risk assessments for 15 countries, quantifying potential disaster losses from earthquakes, tsunamis, and tropical cyclones. This assessment includes the most comprehensive analysis of building, infrastructure, and cash crop exposure ever conducted for the region. Resulting exposure, hazard and risk maps, and data are shared with policy-makers and the public. The project is a joint initiative of the Secretariat of the Pacific Community, Applied Geoscience Technology Division, the World Bank, and the Asian Development Bank. The Government of Japan and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery provided financial support. 26
    • New Tools & Methodologiestopics such as the prioritization Indonesia is also working with Conclusionof key schools and hospitals for Australia and the World Bank Unfortunately it is all too commonretrofitting programs. While the to develop new software – the to have risk assessments thatprogram is still ongoing, it is the Indonesia Scenario Assessment for do not lead to the changes orcredibility and compelling nature of Emergencies (InaSAFE) – to draw outcomes that are desperatelythe risk assessment that is allowing together this community data with needed. We need to continue tothe first steps towards tangible technical information on hazards improve not just the technicalmitigation. from a range of other government rigor of what we do, but how we agencies and universities. do it. We need to ensure that weFor the Pacific, PCRAFI collected maintain our credibility, but at theinformation on over 3,500,000 These two tools, OSM and InaSAFE, same time we must increase thebuildings across 15 countries in are being used to develop a hybrid targeting and clarity of our resultsthe Pacific and then used state- approach to risk assessments and ensure that the people whoof-the-art probabilistic risk that allow communities and local have to take action based on riskassessment techniques to analyze governments to more closely assessments are engaged in, andearthquake and cyclone risks. The engage and interact with the have full ownership of the processsheer scale and level of detail of risk assessment process. They from the beginning.this assessment led to results that are leading to more accuratewere highly credible and provided an assessments with more direct This will require all practitioners,information-base that was trusted. impact and uptake by at-risk from scientists and engineers, to communities. policy-makers and communities to3) Risk Assessments Must Be actively work together to ensureCollaborative: We all understand Similarly, governments need that every improvement in ourthat many risk assessments require to articulate the need for and understanding of risk leads toa range of technical disciplines purpose of risk assessments. better decisions, tangible change,from social science to engineering. Yemen’s Ministry of Planning and therefore safer communities.However, there equally needs to and International Cooperationbe an early focus and engagement developed a film to communicatewith the final decision-makers to the tragic consequences of not Contributors to the sessionensure that they take ownership of truly understanding and mitigatingthe risks that they need to manage. our risks, using the example of the Agus Wibowo, Head of Data 2008 Hadramout and Al-Mahrah Division from National Agency for Disaster Management (BNPB),In Indonesia, new approaches to floods. However, work still needs to Indonesiacommunity-based, participatory be done to understand the priority Michael Bonte, Disaster Riskmapping are encouraging com- risks that should be considered in Management and Climate Changemunities to actively participate in, the reconstruction process and to Adaptation Specialist from theand take ownership of their risk. help ensure that the Government World Bank, Pacific DepartmentUsing OpenStreetMap (OSM), these can better protect its people. for Sustainable Developmentparticipatory approaches are closely Celina Kattan Jokisch,aligned with community-based This focus and call for better Seismologist, Ministry of thedisaster risk management (DRM) evidence to inform decision- Environment and Natural Resources (MARN), El Salvadorprograms that pride themselves on making reinforces the need forcommunity ownership and subse- risk assessments and the potential Abdullah Mohamed Ali Motafi, Deputy Public Works Minister,quent community-driven actions. for these assessments to lead to Yemen changes and safer communities. 27
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR Forum SAHEL TRINIDAD & TOBAGO SRI LANKA INDONESIA HORN OF AFRICA SOUTH AFRICA28
    • Open Data “The importance of making information about hazard risks available cannot be overemphasized.” —Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters, the Economics of Effective PreventionRobert Soden, against drought, and how to protect commonplace. And so, even whenOpenDRI Lead, Global Facility coastal cities against future climate “information is collected, it isfor Disaster Reduction and impacts cannot be made without not always shared, even thoughRecovery, World Bank knowledge of the most accurate and sharing information on hazards updated information on risk. involves relatively little expense because some government However, decision-makers typically agencies already collect andI n order to build resilient societies, policy-makers and lack access to actionable data and/ analyze data on hazard risks.”9 the public must have access or the analytical tools to leverageto the right data and information this data. Furthermore, theto make good decisions. Decisions frequent duplication of researchsuch as where and how to build and data collection due to lack of 9 GFDRR, Natural Hazards, UnNaturalsafer schools, how to insure farmers sharing between institutions is Disasters, (2010). 29
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR ForumSharing data and creating open Furthermore, in many cases, risk unwillingness to share data atsystems promotes transparency analysis has been a closed process no cost. However, there is littleand accountability. It can help crack conducted by private consultancies evidence supporting data sales asblack box approaches and build and expert practitioners with an effective fund-raising activity.more participatory and innovative limited participation or input In fact, the infrastructure andplatforms for a dynamic and from the broader government capacity necessary to conduct dataactionable understanding of risk. sector and the public. This has sales is often more expensive than led to a lack of meaningful use of revenue generated through this the outputs in policy-making and approach. Furthermore, studiesChallenges have also shown that open data planning processes, unnecessaryRisk analysis requires the duplication of work, and a failure policies spur scientific research,integration of many different kinds the development of software tools, to meaningfully communicate thisof data and information. A flood and guide decision-making, creating information to at-risk populations.risk model for a single catchment, economic benefits.for example, might take datasets Moreover, often governmentsdescribing rainfall volume and struggle to open hazard and risk Security and Privacy: Oftenintensity, elevation and slope, land- information due to concerns of governments are concerneduse patterns, soil characteristics, as cost recovery for funds spent on about opening building stock andwell as location and description of data collection, privacy and security tenure data due to the perceivedcritical infrastructure, population issues, and lack of technical capacity sensitivity of real estate pricescenters, and other assets that to effectively share risk data. to sharing this information. Yet,could be negatively impacted by the raw data required to build exposure databases for riskflooding. Responses to assessment is non-sensitive and Institutional is often already public. By openingIn most cases, these critical input Challenges the underlying raw data, existingdatasets are in the hands of a wide Based on the experience of national maps can be validated, and the datarange of actors across different mapping agencies engaged in open can contribute to other researchministries or administrative units, the data programs in South Africa and and analysis. Moreover, there areprivate sector, and international or Indonesia, the following responses already well-established practicesnon-governmental organizations. Too to institutional challenges are in place for opening other datasetsoften, data sharing arrangements articulated below: that have equal or more impact onbetween these groups are weak, real estate values such as air andinformal, incomplete or insufficient. Cost Recovery: Many countries water quality, crime statistics, andAt times there is a lack of adequate sell hazard and risk data to recover educational indicators.technological infrastructure for data the costs of data collectionmanagement and distribution, leading and the operational expenses Technical and Managementto the inaccessibility of this data. of the ministry, resulting in an Capacity: Many countries lackDuring the UR Forum a multidisciplinary panel addressed the following questions: What are the specific challenges that the open data movement is facing in the field of disaster risk assessment? What have we learned from early attempts at building open data initiatives around hazard, exposure, and risk information? What partnerships can be built at the international level to help countries open their own data? What challenges and opportunities will these efforts face in years to come?30
    • Open Data Open Data: “Facts Cannot be Copyrighted” In its simplest framing, data can be said to be open when it is both legally and technically open. For data to be considered legally open, it must be released under a license that allows for the reuse and redistribution for either commercial or non-commercial uses. Examples include the Creative Commons suite of licenses (http://creativecommons.org/) or the Open Data Commons Open Database License (ODBL) (http:// opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/). Technically open data is data that is available over the web on a permanent address, which can be downloaded or accessed through an Application Programming Interface (API) in structured and non- proprietary formats. Open formats for geospatial data, which comprises the majority of risk-related information, include shapefile, GeoTiff, and CSV or OGC compliant web services (for more details: http:// www.opengeospatial.org/standards) The open data philosophy has existed within the scientific community for decades, championed by those who argue that facts cannot be copyrighted and point to the many ways in which free access to basic data encourages beneficial research and innovation in academia and the private sector. More recently there has been a strong emphasis on open government data as part of a larger strategy to promote transparency, accountability, and participation in governance. The Open Government Partnership (OGP) (http://www.opengovpartnership.org/) is a new multilateral initiative under which 47 governments have committed themselves to adopting these principles as part of anti-corruption efforts, improving delivery of public services, and other endeavors. Web-portals like Data.gov have made huge amounts of government data available. Development institutions such as the World Bank, the African Development Bank, and US AID have also adopted open data policies and practices in the last few years as part of efforts to make the development process more inclusive and transparent.the technical and management governments in the region to Engaging Volunteercapacity to effectively build assist them with launching their Technology Communitiesopen data initiatives. This own open data projects and (VTCs). Apps competitions,capacity includes the necessary platforms. developer challenges, and targetedinstitutional arrangements, the hackathons are a common waytechnical capacity to manage The Demand Side of quickly generating innovativeand release data, and the human of Open Data applications and visualizationscapacity to make effective use In the eyes of some within the that both demonstrate the utilityof open data. Efforts to build open data movement, the process and raise the profile of open datacapacity include initiatives of making data technically and projects. The Random Hacks ofsuch as the Mapping Africa legally open is only the beginning. It Kindness (RHoK) network is afor Africa project. Led by the is argued that ensuring data is open partnership between the WorldSouth African Government, it is a necessary but insufficient part Bank, NASA, Google, Yahoo,provides funding and capacity- of broader efforts towards open Microsoft, Hewlett Packard,building to national mapping government or open development. and other organizations thatagencies in the region. The Africa Below are a couple of tactics for connects leading technologistsDevelopment Bank’s Open Data ensuring that open data is used and and innovators to subjectInitiative is also partnering with useful to these ends. matter experts to develop novel 31
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR Forum Regional Open Data PartnershipsThe University for the West Indies (UWI) and the Eastern Caribbean: The World Bank and the UWI inTrinidad and Tobago are partnering to support regional open data efforts to build climate and disasterresilience in the Eastern Caribbean.Since 2011, a series of regional workshops and trainings have brought together government counterparts,data management practitioners, regional experts, and UWI faculty and students to discuss risk assessment,data standards and sharing, open source software, and community mapping. These efforts are helpingcountries in the region develop institutional arrangements and technical capacity to open, manage, and usegeospatial data to improve information-based decision-making related to disaster risk management andclimate change adaptation.A critical and unique element of this initiative are the efforts being made to develop a regional communityof practice and a network of technical experts that focus on open data and disaster risk assessment. Theintegrated regional approach of the workshops and trainings, as well as an online social networking platformlaunched in support of the activities, allow participants to connect and share experience about commonchallenges, solutions, and innovations across the region.International Collaboration for the Horn and Sahel Crises: The droughts of 2011 and 2012 in the Horn ofAfrica and the Sahel are regional challenges that require regional analysis and solutions. However, collectingthe right data and information in support of these efforts is especially challenging because of the cross-border character of the emergencies.A partnership of institutions including the World Bank, the Regional Center for Mapping of Resources forDevelopment (RCMRD), the World Food Program (WFP), National Aeronautics and Space Administration(NASA)–SERVIR, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affair (OCHA), the UN HighCommissioner for Refugees (HCR), the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET), and DevelopmentSeed, convened in September 2011 to help address lack of up-to-date and accurate information to combatthe droughts.This partnership launched two data sharing platforms (http://horn.rcmrd.org and http://sahelresponse.org)in order to allow regional and international organizations to share and visualize their data describing thedroughts. By pulling together data sources into one site, the platforms offer the ability to strengthen datasharing between partners and donors. A common operating picture is critical for a coordinated response, andthese platforms help bring together critical datasets to inform the response.These platforms are now being used in support of efforts to understand and combat the crises as well asdevelop further capacity in the affected regions to conduct risk assessment and use open data and opensource tools to build long-term resilience to drought and other natural hazards. OPEN DATA FOR RESILIENCE INITIATIVE32
    • Open Data access to data strengthens the risk assessment process. These projects take a variety of different forms, depending on the context, but include helping governments establish institutional arrangements in support of open data, community mapping activities, and the development of new tools to leverage open data for risk decision-making. Although a young and growing program, the early successes ofRandom Hacks of Kindness, Lusaka, Zambia. OpenDRI demonstrate the appetite for, and value of, the open data visionapplications for development assessments. (For more information in our efforts to understand risk.challenges. on these approaches, see “New Tools and Methodologies for Building Contributors to the session Engaging Government. A critical Disaster Resilience p. 25”). Co-Session Lead: Derek Clarke,user group of open data in the risk Chief Director, National Geo-spatialassessment context is government. Operationalizing Information, South AfricaFor governments to engage in open Open Data for Panelistsrisk data activities, projects must Understanding Risk Beejaye Kokil, Division Manager,link closely to the meaningful use In 2011, the World Bank created Economic & Social Statisticsof this data. In Indonesia and Sri Division, African Development Bank the Open Data for ResilienceLanka, for example, the government Jacob Opadeyi, PhD, Department Initiative (OpenDRI) to tackle the of Geomatics Engineering andhas participated in open data open data mandate within the Land Management, Faculty ofprojects using community mapping. disaster and climate change risk Engineering, The University of theThese projects are closely tied to assessment context. OpenDRI West Indiesthe development of free and open has active efforts underway in Ir. Dodi Sukmayadi, Head ofsource impact modeling software over 25 countries and partners Center of Networking System andthat will help disaster management with governments, universities, GeoSpatial Data Standardization, Indonesian National Informationagencies conduct contingency international agencies, and the and Geospatial Agencyplanning and post-disaster damage private sector to ensure openFurther Resources Open Data Handbook: http://opendatahandbook.org International Aid Transparency Initiative: http://www.aidtransparency.net GeoNode: http://geonode.org OpenStreetMap: http://www.openstreetmap.org Open Data for Africa: http://www.afdb.org/en/knowledge/statistics/open-data-for-africa World Bank Open Data Initiative: http://data.worldbank.org Open Knowledge Foundation: http://okfn.org/ 33
    • Photo: Festival in Kathmandu, Nepal. Credit: © Thinkstock.com haiti indonesia34
    • Applications of Crowdsourcingfor Development and DisasterResponseKate Chapman, The first step is to determine whether crowdsourcingActing Executive Director, and its technologies are the correct approach for aHumanitarian OpenStreetMap project. Often, practitioners mistakenly seize upon aTeam particular technology first and then try to figure out how to make it work second. 35
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR ForumC rowdsourcing is a process types of incentives that work with crowdsourcing projects. Local where distributed groups crowds, what ethical considerations community members may volunteer of people work together to need to be taken into account, because they see the value ofcomplete a task or solve a problem. and potential methodologies and assisting their friends and familyExamples of large crowdsourcing- technologies. or other local benefits, and oftenrelated platforms and projects they may be part of the impactedinclude Amazon Mechanical Turk10, Incentives of communities themselves.Wikipedia, and Zooniverse11. Participants When evaluating possible incentives To garner the crowd, some projectsThere are other projects that for crowdsourcing it is important use simple recognition as anoperate on different scales, to evaluate if simply paying for incentive. For example, the ship logthat is, in terms of the number completion of microtasks will be transcription project, Old Weather12,of participants, the quantity more cost-effective than the cost rewards participants as “captainof information processed and of organizing volunteers. There of the ship” if they transcribed thethe purpose. In recent years are, however examples where most logs of that ship.crowdsourcing methodologies and the “crowd” is made up of globalapplications have been applied to the volunteers, and this generally will Other types of badges and rewardsfield of disaster risk management happen after a crisis. are typical when the incentive of(DRM), and mainly in the area of crowdsourcing is gamification. Inresponse. Distributing and sharing The January 12th, 2010 gamification of crowdsourcing, atasks through crowdsourcing can earthquake in Haiti gave attention game is created around a task andhelp direct and distribute aid in a to a movement that has come to the incentive for participants cancrisis, for example. But it can also be called “Volunteer Technology be points or other recognition.be a strong method for creating Communities”(VTCs). Thesemore detailed reporting on mapping digital groups existed prior to the Commercial tools, such as Amazonvulnerable areas for disaster risk earthquake but not in the numbersreduction (DRR) activities. Mechanical Turk and Crowdflower13, that exist today. Digital volunteers provide platforms for setting up possess varying technical skillsThis session sought to show how crowdsourcing projects. Along with and are mostly incentivized toto apply crowdsourcing efforts engage for the altruistic goal of providing technology, they provideto disaster risk assessment, helping others. It is difficult to recruitment to projects, andcontingency planning, and other count the actual size of these distribution of funding to the paidex ante preparedness activities. groups, but it is dwarfed by the crowdsourcing workers.Work has begun in this area but is number of individuals participatingin relatively early stages. Through in commercial crowdsourcing Though digital volunteers, localan analysis of past projects, the projects. volunteers, and paid workers arepanelists looked at what one not the only possible avenues forshould consider before starting a During a crisis, digital volunteers getting tasks done, they are a goodcrowdsourcing project, outlining the are not the only volunteers in starting point in an evaluation.10 See: https://www.mturk.com11 See: https://www.zooniverse.org12 See: https://www.oldweather.org13 See: crowdflower.com36
    • Crowdsourcing Creating Critical Infrastructure Baseline Data with Participatory Mapping - Indonesia As part of pilot programs in Indonesia, participatory mapping was used to collect data for preparedness and flood contingency planning activity. This effort was led by the Province of Jakarta’s Disaster Management Agency (BPBD) and involved 500 representatives from all 267 urban villages and 70 students from the University of Indonesia. OpenStreetMap (OSM) tools were used to map 6,000 buildings and critical infrastructure, including schools, hospitals, and places of worship and 2,668 RW (subvillage) boundaries. The collected information was used through the Indonesia Scenario Assessment for Emergencies Indonesia Demo Map (InaSAFE) platform as part of the 2011/2012 Jakarta flood contingency planning, and can be used for future emergency exercises and DRM planning. The exercise helped to raise awareness, enhance technical skills and engage local stakeholders in DRM. OSM offers several important features for participatory mapping: open source tools for online or offline mapping, a common platform for uploading, hosting data with free and open access and an active global community of users, and customized resources for a growing community in Indonesia; see http:// en.openstreetmap.or.id/. This work is part of an innovative approach to DRM through a partnership led by Indonesia’s National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) and AusAID through the Australia-Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction (AIFDR), United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Indonesia, and the Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team (HOT), with support from the World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR).Local Knowledge and Communities also know the places communities themselves in the that are important to them process. There are non-technicalImpacted CommunitiesEngaging community members in and the history behind them. ways to engage communities andany crowdsourcing project is key, as When performing a DRR activity, for them to have access to thethey can provide local knowledge communities can pinpoint where data collected. Instead of usingthat the global crowd may not previous events have occurred, smartphones, printed maps can behave. For example, when collecting what the effects were, and other marked up, with “walking papers.”exposure data via smartphones, details that may be only anecdotal The Public Laboratory for Openthe text messages often contain and not available in official records. Technology and Science (PLOTS)local nicknames for a place. Without initiative is piloting this approach bythat local information it could be Along with the importance of local engaging communities in grassrootsimpossible to determine where the knowledge comes the importance mapping tools, such as balloon orplace is. of engaging the impacted kite mapping. 37
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR Forum 1 What is the size of your crowd? Is it anyone on the Internet that is interested? 2 Is it a small community the cares very deeply about your o specific project? estions tMain Qu itiating InConsider rcing 3 Are there ethical and safety considerations about the dataaC rowdsou being collected?Project 4 What workflows and technologies are you going to use? 5 How vital is the accuracy of the data? What level of error are you willing to accept? 6 What verification is necessary?The safety of the communities Do you have historical crowdsourcing is either going to bethemselves also needs to be information about the previous ineffective or inappropriate for aconsidered if the project takes place work of the individual? multitude of reasons. However, byin a conflict setting. In situations performing careful planning upfront How critical is the accuracy ofwhere there is danger to the and taking into consideration as your data?communities the most important much information as possible aboutinitial questions should be “should Do participants have incentives the crowd you are engaging, therethis project take place?” and “can for providing either accurate/ will be a higher likelihood of success.this project be done safely?” inaccurate information? How does the individual dataThe Place of point look when compared to Contributors to the sessionVerification others? Co-Session Lead: EmmanuelWhen crowdsourcing is initially Kala, Software Developer,described it can sound inaccurate Statistically does the information Ushahidiand problematic. The idea of make sense? (note, this alone is not Panelistsproposing a task to a group of a good indicator) Abby Baca, Disaster Riskvarious people, “a crowd,” has By looking at these questions you Management Specialist, World Bankthe potential to be rife with can measure the importance of the Shannon Dosemagen, Directorinaccuracies, and this is why the level of verification in the process. of Community Engagement,verification process is important. Education and Outreach, Public Laboratory for Open TechnologyThe different types of verification Conclusion and Sciencehave many considerations: There are many elements that Helena Puig Larrauri, Co-founder, need to be considered before using Standby Task Force What do you know about the crowdsourcing to accomplish a task. Rob Munro, Chief Executiveindividuals and their skills in your There will be circumstances where Officer, Idiboncrowd?38
    • Photo: Australia – Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction, Mapping Workshop. Credit: Abby Baca 39
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR Forum india Photo: Indonesia participatory mapping. Credit: Gavin Macgregor Skinner40
    • Community-BasedRisk Assessment Dr. James Kisia, Deputy Secretary General, Kenya Red Cross We need to make communities the centers of assessment and decision-making. 41
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR Forum or vulnerability to those risks.I n 1601, James Lancaster and resources between all levels discovered that lime juice Communities are frequently of government, even down to the was effective for preventing only thought of as the victims village level.scurvy, an affliction caused by a of natural hazards, when in factdeficiency in Vitamin C that was they are also the first responders. Community Mappingaffecting sailors. More than a Most of this knowledge is tacit, Participatory mapping techniquescentury later, Scottish physician which represents a challenge for provide an effective tool to engageJames Lind proved Lancaster’s those outside trying to help. One communities in disaster risktheory through a clinical trial. must be creative in accessing assessment activities.However, it was not until 200 years that knowledge and then fullylater that the British Royal Navy understanding it. Community maps can provide arequired ships to store lime juice on comprehensive layout of whereships. The Merchant Navy waited This panel explored ways to vulnerable people are residing andeven longer before they took up proactively involve communities in what numbers, and where thethe innovation. Tens of thousands in assessing and reducing risk, safe houses are located.of sailor perished from scurvy exploring tools that enable riskduring the interim. reduction. By engaging communities in the exercise and providing the map as aThe lesson to be learned here is if Collaborative reference, local first responders arethe sailors had been at the centerof the decision-making process, it Approaches equipped with the right information Effective DRM at the government to make decisions to reduce riskwould not have taken 200 years to level, whether national or and develop contingency plans inbring lime juice aboard. This example sub-national, requires the full the case of a natural hazard.illustrates a recurring theme indisaster risk management (DRM). engagement of local communities.People are slow to react to new Governments have the A How-to Guide -innovations and solutions because responsibility to ensure the safety Andhra Pradesh, Indiathey leave responsibility to those in of citizens, the mandate and the Below is a set of guidelines forauthority instead of those who are capacity to promote research and organizing a community mappingdirectly affected. provide public goods, and typically exercise to assess exposure and the ability to implement large-scale vulnerability (Figure 1).Solutions are often not as linear as risk reduction programs.the ones proposed by government Step 1 - Assessment: Theagencies or large development However, strong collaboration with community first obtains informationorganizations. Instead, they tend the private sector, civil society, about the history of disastersto be much more highly contextual. academia, and local communities is in their village and any disaster-Decision-makers at the top often necessary for government policy related problems that weresuffer from the same limitations, to translate into local action. encountered. The information isthat is, looking to connect the dots The impacts of disasters are felt collected either verbally throughor make sense of the whole rather locally and communities need to interviews with local residents orthan starting from the details. be empowered and supported to from written records. In general, manage risk. verbal records are more common atCommunities possess a lot of the village level.knowledge; they are clear on the Effective DRM strategy, therefore,risks they face and what must be requires a decentralized approach Step 2 - Identification: Thedone to reduce their exposure and an appropriate division of labor community is then charged with42
    • Community-Based Risk Assessment Figure 1: A community exposure and vulnerability map in Andhra Pradesh, India created through a collaborative process between the regional DRM agency the Coastal Area Disaster Mitigation Efforts (CADME) and local residents.identifying all vulnerable groups transport facilities and allocate With this map communities canof people in the village. Vulnerable accommodations to the evacuees. work towards determining planspeople generally include those aged to overcome disaster risk and60 years old and above, pregnant Step 4 - Contingency Plan develop safety and response plans,women, mothers, physically and Development: Contingency in a process that significantlymentally-disabled people, and plans are developed by the local contributes to ownership of thechildren under the age of 14. community through a consultation assessment results. process where community membersVulnerable areas of the village discuss what happened in the village Contributors to the sessionare then identified. In the case of during the last disaster, list whatAndhra Pradesh because floods and caused damage and where, assess Stephen McDowell, Regionalmonsoons are the most prevalent who and what is at risk, and discuss Advisor on Food Security,hazards, elevated and low-lying how to best mitigate the risk. International Federation of Redareas also need to be identified and Cross and Red Crescent Societiescyclone shelters and evacuation Step 5 – Exposure and Eastern Africaroutes should also be inspected. Vulnerability Mapping: This Meda Gurrudut Prassad, map serves as a reference for Disaster Manager, Coastal AreaStep 3 - Resource Inventory: Disaster Mitigation Efforts the entire village, with each mapA community task force is then including mark-ups of the following Pablo Suarez, Associate Director for Research and Innovation,responsible for identifying assets: elevated areas; cyclone Red Cross/ Red Crescent Climateand securing all the necessary shelters; roadways; storage areas Centerresources in the case of a disaster. for books, records and daily use Ameen Benjamin, RegionalA resource inventory registry with materials; government agencies; Coordinator, Southern Africandonor names and mobile numbers and emergency centers, such police Faith Communities’ Environmentis made. Based on this inventory, stations, ambulances, fire stations, Institutetask force members can arrange hospitals etc. 43
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR ForumThe Climate andGender Game The following was taken from “Games for a New Climate”, a publication by the Boston University Pardee Center and the Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre, which has been supporting communities by creating games that simulate the complexity of decision-making on individual and group levels.D isasters exacerbate existing experiencing more extreme Rules: Players are divided into gender inequities. In many droughts as well as floods, three teams, one with all women, cases, mortality amongst sometimes in the same district one with all men, and one with bothwomen is significantly higher than or at the same time in different genders. These teams representmen. While the factors behind parts of the country. Together farming cooperatives and theirthese figures may vary, the trend with the Red Cross Climate Centre respective territories are markedis avoidable if addressed upfront in and PopTech, Kenya Red Cross on the ground with two pieces ofdisaster risk management (DRM) designed a game to match a new string, representing rivers thatstrategies. The Climate Centre has initiative in the village of Matuu, the players cannot cross.been piloting the use of experiential introduction of drought-resistantlearning games to build collective cassava as an alternative to maize. Each player receives a harvest ofintelligence in communities and three beans at the start of theenhance the understanding of The designers infused this game game. Each round of the game is aclimate science and climate- of planting decisions with the planting and harvest cycle. Eachcompatible development. While ‘broken’ element of gender individual farmer must decide whatthere is growing consensus as to differences, which in Kenya include to plant, based on the historicalthe differential impacts of climate land ownership (over 90% of the probability of rainfall.change on the most vulnerable, land belongs to men), and unequalthe fact that women and girls access to credit or fertilizer.are differently affected remains Fictional gender roles are assigned A six-sided die is used toan overlooked issue that may randomly to participants. Those represent the historicalindeed hold the key to resilience in who play the role of women find probability distributioncommunities around the world. themselves starting the game function of rains. with fewer beans, and they cannotThe Kenya Red Cross is working harvest as much as the fictional A roll of 1, is too little rainwith rural farming communities men do. – drought. Only players that planted drought-resistant cassava can harvest.44
    • Feature: The Climate and Gender GameA room or outdoor area is Climate Change: Once players mixed gender team. (The facilitatorseparated into three sections are comfortable with the game may ask the players about anymarked for 1) drought-resistant dynamics after several rounds, observations at this time.)cassava, 2) maize, and 3) rice. climate change is introduced. The diePlayers who choose to plant maize, is exchanged for a truncated cone, After prizes are distributed to thewhich requires good rain, but will which is flipped in the air to simulate one player with the most beans andfail if there is flood or drought, the new rainfall probability: if it to the co-op team which lost theindicate they are planting maize by lands on the wide base, that means fewest farmers to the city, playerswalking to one side of the room. flood, if it lands on the small base, are encouraged to share theirPlayers who choose to protect that means drought, and if it rolls on feelings about the game, to discussagainst drought or flooding must its side, that indicates good rains. how they felt about the genderwalk to the cassava or rice areas roles, what the game revealed thatand pay one bean. Gender Inequality: After a was surprising or concerning, and couple more rounds, to better what they see as the root causesIf there are normal rains (a 2 – 5 reflect reality, gender inequality is and possible paths to solve theiris rolled), all farmers collect two introduced. Bracelets are randomly specific climate-related problems.beans. If a disaster is rolled (a 1 or a distributed to about half of the6), anyone who planted maize or the players; those wearing a bracelet The Kenya Red Cross is now usingwrong crop for the type of disaster are told that they are now playing this game both to simulate the op-rolled, must pay four beans to feed the role of men, and those without portunities that can be opened overtheir family that season. All farmers a bracelet will play as women and, time through alternative plantingwho planted the correct crop for to reflect the unequal access of decisions in a changing climate, andthe disaster rolled collect two women to assets and the unequal also to open deep conversationbeans. Anyone who can no longer pay for equal work, women start within affected communities aroundpay is out of the game and must this new phase of the game with the differential implications andmigrate to the city to find work. one less bean - and will harvest only life-choice consequences of climate one bean. change for women and girls versus men and boys. Players up to this point have been able to observe how the all-men and all-women teams have fared Further Resources compared to each other and the Video to support training of trainers (9 minutes): http://www. youtube.com/watch?v=R8eRhS2 XnCA&feature=youtu.be Introductory Video (5 minutes): http://youtu.be/BleWKuaFU60A roll of 6 is too much rain– flood. Only players thatplanted rice can harvest. Normal, good rain is any roll from 2 and 5. This is good for planting maize, beans, cassava and rice. All players can harvest. 45
    • Photo: California wild fires.46
    • japan morocco indonesia namibia SOUTH AFRICA Satellite Earth Observation in Support of Disaster Risk Management in AfricaPhilippe Bally, Satellite Understanding our environment and the fundamentalEarth Observation Specialist, forces that shape it can reduce the risk of naturalEuropean Space Agency & disasters. In this context, Earth Observation (EO)Anna Burzykowska,Earth Observation Specialist, satellites can provide useful information, often thatWorld Bank which cannot be obtained by other sources, to make rapid and effective decisions to mitigate, prepare for, and respond to a range of disasters. effectively use space-based services T he technical specifications, accuracies, limitations, to prevent and mitigate disaster constraints as well as costs of risks has significantly improved. For using EO for emergency response instance, countries such as Nigeria, and risk assessment have all been Algeria, Egypt, and South Africa have documented. However, globally, developed active space programs, many users are not aware of operating their own satellites, while the opportunities, nor have the Morocco and Kenya stand out as capacity to incorporate them in examples of countries that have a operational decision-making. The strong and capable user base. cost and the limited availability of EO data and services are regarded Moreover, various international as an obstacle to obtaining the initiatives such as the Regional full benefits of this innovative technology in lower income Network for Information Exchange economies. and Training in Emergencies (Garnet-e project), dedicated Recently, however, the ability specifically to disaster management, of African national and regional have increased the use of EO organizations to access and applications on a regional basis. 47
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR ForumThe capacity to integrate major EO missions and puts South (AFIS) - an operation alert andEO-based technology and Africa in a unique position as a mapping service providing nearinformation into national disaster hub for expertise and technology real-time information related torisk management (DRM) strategies development, as well as technology the detection, monitoring, andvaries from country-to-country. It transfer to other emerging space assessment of fires in Southernlargely depends on the economic nations in Africa. Africa. This is based on data deriveddevelopment level, the type of from the Terra and Aqua MODISdata and information needed for The Earth Observation Directorate and Meteosat Second Generationdifferent stages of the DRM cycle, at SANSA is responsible for the (MSG) satellites.as well as the responsibilities of storage and pre-/processing ofnational authorities and specialized satellite imagery received at the Interestingly, in 2009 South Africaagencies to collect, process, and receiving station, generation developed its own prototype EOdistribute satellite-based data and of information products, and satellite to demonstrate on-orbitinformation services to their users. distribution of satellite data and technology capabilities and to derive products to the users. In 2012, data for further research. After a SANSA provided SPOT imagery successful launch, the imagery ofDRM at the South to Namibia to generate reference SumbandilaSat, or “pathfinder”,Africa National Space sets in selected flood-prone areas captured the areas affected byAgency (SANSA) and supported the post-disaster the 2011 tsunami damage in JapanSANSA is one of the leaders in the assessment in inundated areas (Figure 2) and supported theregion when it comes to providing along the Limpopo River Hydrological Services of Namibiasatellite imagery and value-added (Figure 1). in assessing the impact of 2011products to Southern African flooding in Oshakati (Figure 3). In thecountries in support of DRM. The It also supplies a reliable feed future, SANSA plans to establish aHartebeeshoek facility is the only of MODIS data to the regional regional office that supports DRMAfrica-based station suited for the Advanced Fire Information System using EO. EO Technologies for Flood Mapping and Hydrological Modeling in Namibia Namibia is the most arid country in sub-Saharan Africa, with seasonal rainfalls and mostly ephemeral river flows being low and erratic. From 2008-2011, the northern parts of the country experienced exceptional floods with major impacts on the livelihoods of the people and the socio-economic development of the area. Many of the areas affected were difficult to access. Satellite remote sensing was used for the hydrological monitoring, early warning, forecasting, and modeling systems because of its specific suitability to observe large areas with difficult ground access. It also provided both qualitative insight in the hydrological processes and the quantification of the impacts. Four applications were developed: (i) Areal precipitation monitoring, providing near- real-time areal rainfall estimates from cloud-temperature observations; (ii) Direct and indirect river flow monitoring, applying various experimental methods; (iii) Flood mapping, using optical and in particular radar imagery that is not affected by adverse weather conditions; and (iv) Flood forecasting models, with EO providing rainfall, soil moisture, evaporation, and catchment conditions as inputs for water balance. NASA EO-1 image showing complexity of ephemeral Cuvelai Delta in Angola and Namibia (30 March 2011) Courtesy: GFSC NASA48
    • Satellite Earth Observation Figure 1: SPOT imagery was used for flood assessment along the Limpopo River. Credits: SANSA, SPOT data © CNES distributed by Spot Image. Figure 2: SumbandilaSat image on the right was used for disaster assessment in Japan in 2011. (Left Google Earth image before the tsunami). Credits: SANSA.Figure 3: SumbandilaSatimage on the right showingimpact of flooding, OshakatiNamibia in 2011. (LeftGoogle Earth image ofOshakati before the flood).Credits: SANSA. 49
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR ForumProviding better access to Charter-generated information means that much moreneeds to be done to enhance the capacity of the requesting authorities to usethis information effectively.International Charter requests for emergency response. European Space The affected country will no longerfor Space and Major Agency DRM Practice have to be a Charter member toDisasters in Africa access and use the assets. and Collaboration withThe International Charter for the World BankSpace and Major Disasters is the The rapid pace of technology In addition, the Charter has definedkey international mechanisms advancement has led to the launch a process to evaluate the ability ofestablished to respond to global of an impressive array of satellite national authorities to benefit fromdisasters with satellite-based systems. These missions are now such access in accordance withinformation for situational multi-purpose and offer exceptional operational procedures.awareness. The use of Charter’s coverage and scope, including:services in Africa is rapidly growing, (i) Medium and high/very high Providing better access to Charter-and currently supports disaster resolution optical data; (ii) Infrared generated information meansresponse in 22 countries (Figure 4). and thermal data; (iii) Medium and that much more needs to be done to enhance the capacity of the high resolution SAR data (C, L and XMany African national disaster band) and interferometric SAR data requesting authorities to use thismanagement agencies rely solely products; and (iv) Meteorological information effectively. Partneringon the Charter as the main data sets and models. with organizations such as thesource of EO-based rapid mapping Global Facility for Disaster Riskmethodologies for disaster Taken collectively, the world’s Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR)response. As a result Charter satellite systems offer a large can help achieve this goal.members have recently adopted volume of imagery and as suchthe principle of Universal Access constitute a unique tool forenabling any national disaster various DRM applications (Figuremanagement authority to submit 5). In particular, the launch of40453025201510 5 0 a pia fC e go Ta di ia da n ad Rw r M nda ina a so Se a l a ra pt Co e te ros rie a- ia Le u M ho pe us e Pr a ipe ga ge ny i an ine ine u on rd da a an an is n Si Egy Fa i an Ch ss biq on t vo rit hio ne inc ru Gu Tun o Ni Ve so Gh Ke Su a Le nz rit Gu e l Gu m Bi Ug d’I Bu au pu am Et au co To oria rk ine oz d er Ca an Bu Co M bli t Sã qua m Re E ic o rat oc n EM-DAT 2000-2010 n Charter activations m DeFigure 4: International Charter activations in Africa over 2000-2010 (red) compared to mass disaster occurrenceaccording to CRED’s EM-DAT database. Credits: ESA, Argans Ltd, CRED.50
    • Satellite Earth Observation C Band HR SAR (ENVISAT) X Band VHR SAR (TerraSAR-X)Figure 5: Overview of the density of archive for data from two EO missions providing radar imagery to supportemergency response: ESA’s ENVISAT ASAR, showing IM Descending IS2 VV C Band data and DLR’s TERRASAR-X, showingStripmap X Band data in this example. CSA’s RADARSAT, JAXA4s ALOS and ASI’s Cosmo-Skymed are other examples ofspace borne systems providing all weather SAR data. Credits: ESA, DLR.ESA Sentinel satellites developed The Sentinels will offer a depth and Aperture Radar-based Persistentunder the Global Monitoring for breadth of coverage not previously Scatterer InterferometryEnvironment and Security (GMES) possible with most sensors on a (InSAR-based PSI). It canprogram will provide key sources of single platform. Sentinel-1 will provide very dense spatial datadata to manage and assess risks on acquire imagery over an area and detailed measurements ofan operational basis. 200 times the size of Malawi in surface displacements (at the sub interferometric Wide-Swath mode centimeter or even millimeter level). Sentinel-1 is aimed to provide at high spatial resolution every day. This can be used for measuring data for systematic terrain For applications requiring optical risks associated with earthquakes, deformation monitoring for all data, Sentinel-2 (A and B) will volcanoes, and landslides, as well as types of geo-hazards provide complete global coverage collapsed cities and distortions of of land surface at 10m resolution flood defense structures in coastal Sentinel-2 will provide high- every five days. lowlands. resolution multispectral imagery to support asset and hazard New EO techniques are also ESA and the World Bank have mapping for a broad range of being developed and applied to piloted a number of projects hazard types address specific localized risks using EO for risk assessment. The Sentinel-3 will provide thermal- and new disaster types. One of outputs included urban mapping infrared imagery with high the most promising applications and thematic mapping to support temporal sampling is Interferometric Synthetic risk assessment for hazards such 51
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR ForumFigure 6: Deformation map in Jakarta Bay and harborderived from the PSI analysis of VHR COSMO-SkyMed adata (Oct. 2010 – Apr. 2011). Color scale between -75(red) and 75 (blue) mm/year. Credit: EOWorld project/Altamira Information for ESA, World Bank. mm/year -75 75 n Buildings n Highway n Primary road n Secondary road b 100% 90% 80% Percentage of building 70% 60% Figure 7 a & b: Inventory of buildings and roads in the 50% 76.1% 78.8% 83.3% Mekong basin. Under 2001 flood conditions: 79% of the 40% settlement area, 88% of the road network, and more than 30%90% of the cropland would be affected by high water levels. 20% Credits: EOWorld project/Geoville for ESA, World Bank. 10% n Non-flooded n Flooded 0% Buildings Settlements Roadsas flooding, terrain subsidence climate information services. New Conclusionand landslides in Tunis, Alexandria, methodologies for processing data EO is beneficial in providingJakarta, Yogyakarta, Rio de Janeiro, are being developed that will make information that can supportHo Chi Minh City and Guyana’s this technique more affordable various stages of the DRM cycle.capital city, Georgetown (Figure 6). and enable the developing world to Satellite applications allow for benefit. decisions to be made faster andEO is also a cost-effective means for more effectively and very oftendeveloping inventories of buildings, In the next few years, the ESA provide access to information thatinfrastructure, and crops across tens Sentinel satellites will be launched could not be obtained by otherof thousands of square kilometers of as part of the joint European sources. However, the extent toland, as was done in the Mekong River Union–ESA GMES program. which it will contribute to DRMBasin (Figure 7 a & b). The GMES program aims to capabilities in developing countries, ensure long-term continuity especially in Africa, depends onIncreasingly, EO is being integrated of acquisitions with global the ability to set clear prioritiesas a DRM pillar. The future use of this observations that are conducted in concerning enabling relevanttechnology will grow along with the a systematic fashion with free and IT infrastructure, building localcomplexity of the issues addressed open access to data. This has the institutional capacity, embracingin various projects including potential to enable local users and international cooperation, as wellurban, agricultural or climate risk policy-makers in African countries as ensuring the sustainability of theassessment, insurance/reinsurance to enhance their ability to use capabilities that have been alreadyas well as hydro-meteorological and satellite EO for DRM. developed.52
    • Satellite Earth ObservationDrought and forest fires monitoring For many developing countriesin North Africa EO is still considered economically sensitive and regarded as aThe Arab region is particularly vulnerable to drought, with 87% relatively high-cost innovation.of the total area classified as desert and high levels of aridity and However, there are emergingpoor vegetation cover. EO is known for its added value in improving opportunities to embrace EO. Anthe quality of agricultural statistics by providing early warning andforecasting systems concerning potential food insecurity. adequate and timely response by African states will lay the foundations for their ability toMarch 2008 March 2007 March 2006 An example of using EO for better understand natural hazards spatiotemporal and build resilience, while advancing monitoring of their technological base. drought in Morocco.March 2005 March 2004 March 2003 A drought early warning system International financing institutions was set up and also have a role to play in linking operationalized EO to international development based on high and developing partnerships withMarch 2002 March 2001 March 2009 temporal resolution images, such as specialized organizations based MODIS, NOAA- on a shared recognition that EO AVHRR, and SPOT can help achieve these and other VEGETATION. development outcomes. Sea Cloud Very poor Poor Average Good Very good Very poor 0 – 0.05 0.05 – 0,25 0.25 – 0,75 0.75 – 0,95 0.95 – 1 no vegetationSatellite data provides a useful source of drought indices, such asStandardized Vegetation Index (SVI), which is calculated on the basis ofthe Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series. NDVIcombined with satellite-derived temporal series of Normalized Difference Contributors to the sessionWater Index (NDWI) can further improve the assessment of droughtseverity by combining information from Visible, Near-Infrared, and Co-Session Lead: Jane Olwoch,Shortwave Infrared (SWIR) channels, which are sensitive to vegetation Managing Director, South African Space Agencywater content. Moreover, satellites such as Tropical Rainfall Measuring PanelistsMission (TRMM) can contribute to precipitation estimation. Used in Anna Burzykowska, Earthconjunction with meteorological satellites, these sensors generate Observation Specialist, World Bankvaluable information, especially in areas where there is no precipitation Hicham Ezzine, Programmeground radar. Leader, Regional Centre for Disaster Risk ReductionAnother area of EO developed in North Africa pertains to forest fire Guido Van Langenhove, Head,risk assessment and monitoring. EO provides information for the daily Namibian National Hydrologicalmonitoring of forest fire risk index, through the analysis of NDVI and Servicesland surface temperature (LST) time series, as well as the extraction Paida Mangara, Research Development and Applicationsof relevant EO-based indicators such as the Vegetation Drought Index Manager, South African National(VDI) and Vegetation Regression Index (VRI). The Regional Center for Space AgencyDisaster Risk Reduction (RCDRR) is using high and low resolution images Tesfaye Korme, SERVIR-Africafor forest fire risk evaluation, hotspot detection, determining the Project Lead, Regional Centreinterface between forest and human activities, burnt area cartography, for Mapping of Resources for Development, Kenya and damage assessment. 53
    • Photo: Women carrying water, Ethiopia. Credit: Stockbyte.
    • DroughtResponse andResilience:Innovations in theHorn of Africa andBeyondDoekle Wielinga, Disaster Risk ManagementProgram Coordinator, Africa Region, World Bank& Marc Neilson, Disaster Risk ManagementConsultant, World BankUsing shocking statistics to make a point canbecome tiring, especially if it highlights only thenegative of a given country or region. Therefore,while one might say that today more than 20million people in Sub-Saharan Africa are beingdirectly affected by drought, it should be equallynoted that there is hope. 55
    • USA SAHEL HORN OF AFRICAT he Horn of Africa remains is, the critical transition from one Pulwarty from the National Oceanic under stress 18 months climatic state to another. and Atmospheric Administration after the start of the 2011 (NOAA) presented an historicaldrought, and the Sahel Region of Using the example from the United perspective starting from 1922West Africa just emerged from a States Colorado River Basin, Dr. using the hydrological variability onwidespread drought affecting 19 Sea Surface Temperaturesmillion people. Adding to these crisesis climate change, which aggravates 0.4localized drought conditions 0.2 Annomaly (C)outside of normal seasonal cycles. 0.0Drought especially affects the most -0.2vulnerable and at-risk populations, -0.4often resulting in large-scale -0.6migrations and displacement. An 1850 1900 1950 2000innovative response to drought is Source: NOAA 2012therefore key. Colorado River BasinFortunately, because of majorinnovations in hydro-meteorologicalforecasting and disaster riskmanagement (DRM), certaincommunities have been able to Upper Colorado River Basin Lower Colorado River Basinbetter implement drought responseand resilience mechanisms. Disasterrisk managers are now respondingto drought in a host of new ways,from geo-spatial mapping toleveraging local cultural practices,to improve overall droughtresilience. As drought is a globalissue, examining responses withinbut also outside of Africa helps toshed light on some of these latestinnovations.Tapping into LocalKnowledge – ColoradoBasin, United StatesMany responses to drought areshort-term and often do notwork beyond the time period ofimplementation. What is important isto identify possible thresholds, that Source: NOAA 201256
    • Drought Response and Resiliencerecord. There has been a steady the Basin managers use the Surface trends were highlighted indecline in precipitation levels in the Water Supply Index14 to keep track the Horn of Africa during theBasin with the exception of a few of water levels. severe 2011 drought. Movinggood years. Combined with factors beyond the obvious short-termsuch as a decrease in snowmelt and Challenges remain, including a lack effects, the indirect losses due toan increase in demand, the Basin has of models capable of measuring drought were highlighted (loss oflong since been threatened. thresholds, and many public livelihoods, loss of assets, children sector applications require a more dropping out of school). LocalWays to identify thresholds can systematic connection between communities expected seasonalbe done through drought early early warning scenarios. However, food shortages but as was the casewarning systems, monitoring the socialization of lessons learned in Southeastern Ethiopia, just aand forecasting, awareness by communities and organizations slight change in climatic conditionscampaigns, energy preparedness, through their own experiences, resulted in much lower householdand consistent drought and combined with longer-term planning food availability, thus highlightingflood assessments, as are being and better early warning systems, the slim margin by which many ofconducted by NOAA and the US are key to mapping transitions to the world’s poor live.Drought Information Center. drought and building resilience. To help address the lack ofIn addition, incorporating local household food availability, theknowledge in historical analysis Innovative Tools Livelihoods, Early Assessment andcan refine the timing of changing in the Horn of Africa Protection (LEAP) program has aclimatic events. To identify the Drought and climate risk are a Food Security Early Warning Tool15critical thresholds over that period, significant challenge for global that provides national authoritiesscientists engaged the Native food security. It is projected that in Ethiopia with an advanced earlyAmerican Navajo people. This local by 2050, with increasing climatic warning in the case of drought,knowledge filled in monitoring change, 10-20% more people which in turn triggers contingencygaps and accounted for procedural will be at risk of hunger due to financing. The meteorologicalequity. Together, they were able to climate change risks. Building information comes from satelliteidentify the most important climate resilience is essential. In fact, data and a network of automateddrivers and plan accordingly 40 resilience is an underlying theme weather stations, providing anyears in advance. linked to innovations in drought objective and transparent trigger. management.With proper management, the Another initiative, the R4 RuralBasin is expected to continue to The World Food Program (WFP) Resilience Initiative16 usesact as a major water reservoir with is piloting a series of resilience social safety nets to transferthe long-term planning, including programs to address food risks during lean seasons andthe establishment of operating insecurity through index insurance, stimulate agricultural growth andcriteria and guidelines, an annual risk transfer, social protection, and diversification. The program provideswater management operating plan, emergency preparedness. farmers with access to insuranceschedules for water and power, should their crops fail or in the eventand automated hydroelectric Using WFP’s much utilized food of a natural disaster. By buildinggeneration and control. In addition, security mapping, food security a sustainable commercial rural14 Surface Water Supply Index: http://www.ut.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/watersupply/swsi_about.html15 See: http://www.wfp.org/disaster-risk-reduction/leap16 See: http://www.oxfamamerica.org/publications/r4-rural-resilience-initiative-1 57
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR ForumFood insecurity and climate changeinsurance market and improving meteorological information with made information productsgovernment social protections, farmers, to helping humanitarian and advisories for farmerscommunities benefit in the long-run. organizations receive resources and and pastoralists. Using local funding. The software also relies workshops, field days, SMSTaking the community resilience on crowdsourcing to better inform messaging, radio and television,theme a step further, East Africa’s local leaders of the affected areas in and even church gatheringsInter-Governmental Authority the event of a natural disaster. to disseminate the message,on Development (IGAD) Climate farmers are better able to makePrediction and Applications Centre The region still faces challenges guided decisions about the kind(ICPAC) is piloting the development with the under-utilization of of farming technologies neededof a web-based mapping system and weather forecasts, unreliable for increased food production.an SMS early warning system information dissemination, and Progress includes rain gaugefor mobile phones, Fikia17. Using a lack of technological uptake. installations, the delivery ofholistic approach throughout East ICPAC is piloting a series of starter inputs (seeds, maize,Africa, the software covers projects that aims to re-package fertilizers), and capacity-buildingeverything from sharing weather forecasts into tailor- for extension staff.17 See: http://www.fikia.org/58
    • 35 -7 20 0 -3 9 % -2 5 % 5 0 -9 1 % ve -5 ve m % ry ed ry % hi hi iu lo lo gh gh m w w Percentage of population undernourished Hunger and Climate Vulnerability Index Sources: FAO (2009) The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2009 and FAOSTATConclusion Contributors to the sessionIn order to build long-termresilience to drought it is Session Leads: Abdishakur Othowai, Associate Director, IGAD Climatenecessary to combine traditional Prediction and Applications Centre, and Jonathan Kamkwalala, Sector Manager, World Bankmethods with local knowledge, and Panelistsinnovative technological tools with Mustapha Darboe, Regional Director, United Nations World Foodcommunity-based solutions. New Programme in Eastern, Central and Southern Africainnovations in drought response Niels Balzer, Policy Officer Disaster Risk Reduction, United Nations World Food Programand resilience offer hope and the Roger S. Pulwarty PhD., Chief, Climate and Societal Division andability to predict, withstand, and Director, National Integrated Drought Information Systemovercome future drought crises. 59
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR ForumPhoto: This Landsat image of 3 October 2011 shows the Mississippi River Delta, where the largest river in the United States empties into theGulf of Mexico. In this false-colour image, land vegetation appears pink, while the sediment in the surrounding waters are bright blueand green. Credit: USGS/ESA.60
    • philippines mozambique namibia Flood Risks across Spatial Scales Brenden Jongman, VU One of the greatest challenges in risk mapping is University of Amsterdam; finding appropriate ways to ensure that decision-Dr. Jaap Kwadijk, Deltares;Zuzana Stanton-Geddes, makers receive the necessary information to help World Bank; & Hessel them make better-informed decisions to reduce, Winsemius, Deltares. transfer, or manage their risk. F looding of river and coastal and national governments (weighing systems is recognized as one specific local risk management of the most frequent and options), businesses and (re-)insurers damaging natural hazards affecting (estimating the costs required to societies around the world. In cover potential claims), as well as 2010 alone, floods affected 178 global financing and development million people. The total losses in institutions (providing funding for exceptional years such as 1998 infrastructure, basic services or and 2010 exceeded $40 billion.18 In adaptation programs). Thailand, the 2011 floods resulted in losses of approximately $45 billion, To minimize the impact of floods, equivalent to 5% of Gross Domestic adaptation measures, mitigation Product (GDP).Vulnerability is strategies, and financing schemes are projected to increase: by 2025, 410 developed at spatial scales ranging million urban Asians will be at risk of from local to global. The information coastal flooding.19 needed for risk analysis and decision- making varies with the scale. There are multiple stakeholders involved in flood risk management This session sought to clarify what who require information at different flood risks information needs may spatial scales, time horizons, arise at different spatial scales and and levels of detail. This includes what solutions are available. households and communities, cities 18 World Bank, Cities and Flooding, (2012). 19 Asian Development Bank, ‘Green Urbanization in Asia Key’ Special Chapter in Indicators for Asia and the Pacific, (2012). 61
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR Forum Disaster occurrence by type, 1970–2010 of flood hazard, exposure, and 250 vulnerability for current and future climate and socio-economic 200 scenarios. Number of events 150 A case study on the 1999-2000 100 floods in Mozambique showed 50 current flood risk in densely 0 populated areas such as Maputo and 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 the Zambezi Delta, and demonstrated Year that the modeled flood risk estimates Drought Earthquake (seismic activity) Extreme temperature Flood can be sufficiently validated with Storm Volcano recorded losses. Wildfire Number of reported disaster events. Source: based on EM-DAT/CRE The approach quantified the effects of development, economic growth, Global Scale hydrological model and spatial urban expansion, and climate change datasets of population, land-use, Assessments on flood risk. The level of detail of At the global scale, large-scale and infrastructure.20 such analyses is high enough to flood risk estimates made with establish how flood risk changes Global Flood Risk IMAGE Scenarios The approach is dynamic in the and which developments matter (GLOFRIS), a new approach to sense that it can perform flood within a given region. In the case modeling, enable users to make risk assessment under different of Mozambique, the impact of a a dynamic flood risk assessment scenarios of climate change and growing population and associated at a scale of 1×1 km2 for any socio-economic development. land-use, causes the largest and region in the world using a global It requires global-scale outlines most certain increase in flood risk. Global-scale assessments estimate which countries face greater flood risk in current and future time frames, and can determine what impacts variability in flood risk across space and time. This information can guide decisions on whereDecision- oss to invest, in what measures (e.g. land use or climate adaptation) and how to crMaking a les distribute funding for adaptation. This type of assessment requires global-scale caSpatial S outlines of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability for current and changing climate and/or socio economic scenarios. Regional-scale assessments estimate the needs in investment in flood protection along rivers and coasts, and can determine required insurance and re-insurance premiums. This type of assessment requires more detailed regional information, including base data such as elevation, as well as system knowledge, including system dimensions and safety measures. Local-scale assessments can provide the necessary information for cost/ benefit analyses of investments in flood protection at the asset level, or identify suitable evacuation routes in a given area. Such assessments require very high- resolution models and elevation data. 20 See: http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/9/9611/2012/hessd-9-9611-2012.html 62
    • Flood Risks across Spatial ScalesFor international development For more detailed decision- An Integratedorganizations this information making, rapid assessment models Approach to Flood Riskcan be valuable to identify flood- can be constructed by applyingprone areas and dynamically assess the SRTM elevation model Management at thethe effect of their policies on with elevated features, such as City Levelthe people and assets at risk of major road infrastructure, from As outlined in a recent World Bankflooding. Research is continuing OpenStreetMap (OSM)22. From flagship report “Cities and Flooding.to include more vulnerability this model details on the direction A Guide to Integrated Urban Floodindicators, enhance the economic flooded water will flow given a Risk Management for the 21strisk assessment methods, and use certain breach or upstream flood Century”, an integrated approach tomore local damage data for the level, as well as what elements flood risk management can help citiesvalidation of the global approach. in the landscape determine this make robust decisions to reduce, direction, can be analyzed. manage, and transfer flood risks.Rapid AssessmentModels Flood Risk Management Planning in the PhilippinesOften during disaster emergencies,it is challenging to provide accurateflood risk estimates within alimited timeframe and with limited Photo: Manila, Philippines flood. Credit: © Thinkstock.comresources. This is often the casein remote regions in Africa. Rapidassessment methods can be veryuseful in data-poor areas, providinga first indication of what regions orareas are at risk, and what possiblemeasures for risk reduction one canfocus on.A case study on the city ofOshakati, Namibia demonstratesthat an inundation model based onglobally available elevation data, Following the devastating Ondoy and Pepeng typhoons in 2009,such as Shuttle Radar Topography the Government of the Philippines and the World Bank, withMission (SRTM)21, combined with support from Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery,elevated features and obstructions the Asian Development Bank, AusAID, and the Japan Internationalcan be useful in providing quick Cooperation Agency, undertook a post disaster needs assessment.initial risk information. The rapid Recommendations for strengthening resilience to disasters were madeassessment model revealed where and a comprehensive program of support followed. This included thewater flows during a disaster event, formulation of a disaster risk financing strategy, a flood managementwhy certain areas would flood, master plan for Metro Manila, and a Development Policy Loan withand what can be done in terms a Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option - the loan provides rapidof infrastructural measures or liquidity for the government in the event of a disaster.strategic planning.21 See: http://srtm.usgs.gov/index.php22 See: http://www.openstreetmap.org/. To learn more about OpenStreetMap initiatives in Indonesia, see: http://en.openstreetmap.or.id/ 63
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR ForumUrban flooding is becoming research shows that mangroves Open and Participatoryincreasingly more costly as low- and can help prevent damage to coastal Toolsmiddle-income countries transition infrastructure from flooding. During At each spatial scale, tools areinto largely urban societies. storms, hurricanes, and periods available to establish risk estimates.Unplanned or poorly planned of high wind, waves can cause The question that still arises is howurbanization puts more people and flooding. Mangroves can play a role applicable the high-resolution toolsassets in harms’ way. While it is in reducing the wave height by as are over the whole globe, especiallyimpossible to entirely eliminate the much as 66% over 100 meters of with regards to the simulationrisk of flooding, to better manage forest.23 of floods in very flat areas, usingthe impact of floods, decision- uncertain elevation models.makers need to understand the Delineating flood zones in land-usecauses and effects of flood hazard plans and issuing policies to restrict Although better global elevationas well as the exposure and development in these zones is also models are becoming available (forvulnerability of the communities an example of a non-structural example, through the TanDEM-Xand assets. This includes the spatial measure. mission), locally obtained elevation isand structural risks of the existingor planned settlements. A number of cities have generally currently still more useful been moving towards more to decision-makers due to its higherIn managing flood risk, rather than sustainable solutions to flood risk vertical accuracy, as compared totrying to find the optimal flood management24 For example, the satellite-based elevation.protection solution, cities ought to 2005 German Flood Act placesadopt a robust approach that can strict flood control obligations To ensure that risk identificationcope with uncertainty, take into on government and individuals and risk assessment tools andaccount potential weak spots and to manage flood risk in advance, methodologies become globallyfailures, and adapt to a wider range including the way flood zoning is applicable, practitioners andof future scenarios. In other words, managed and how warnings are decision-makers should seek toimplementing a robust approach issued. Better urban planning, bridge knowledge and experiencerequires the adoption of a balanced coordination, and development across different core areas ofcombination of structural and non- provide a unique opportunity to disaster risk management (DRM).structural measures. have a lasting positive impact on This includes incorporating various the lives of many urban dwellers, open data and open-sourceWhile structural measures “keep especially the poor and marginalized initiatives, crowdsourcing andthe water away from people”, who face some of the highest risks. community mapping exercises, andnon-structural measures “keep satellite applications in the process.the people away from the water.” Through analytical work, technicalStructural measures such as assistance, and lending projects, the Much can be learnt from innovativephysical flood defenses can only World Bank is supporting a number Web 2.0 open initiatives such asaddress an element of the issue of countries adopt integrated flood OSM or InaSAFE25. Participatoryat stake. A more holistic approach risk management plans, with the initiatives allow the communities towould include options such as right balance of structural and non be engaged in the process of riskwetland restoration. For example, structural measures. identification and DRM by creating23 McIvor, A.L., Möller, I., Spencer, T. and Spalding. M. (2012). “Reduction of wind and swell waves by mangroves”. Natural Coastal Protection Series: Report 1. Cambridge Coastal Research Unit Working Paper 40, The Nature Conservancy and Wetlands International.24 See for example Chapter 7 in World Bank, (2012), Cities and Flooding which provides case studies on efforts in Germany, Indonesia, Argentina, and in Mozambique.25 See: http://inasafe.org/.64
    • Flood Risks across Spatial Scales Conclusion Information needs on flood risks arise at different spatial scales. There are various solutions and applications that can provide this information. By embracing new tools that are open and collaborative users are able to download and share data, models, and vulnerability information, which can provide new risk information for global, regional, or local flood risk assessments. This will allow decision-makers to be better equipped to make informed decisions to reduce, transfer, andIndonesia Scenario Assessment for Emergencies – InaSAFE manage disaster risks.information about their immediate inclusive and ultimately sustainable Contributors to the sessionsurroundings, and making it manner. Session Leads: Jaap Kwadijk,available for the whole community Director of Sciences/ Chairof stakeholders to use. Linking existing efforts in risk Scientific Board, Deltares and Rosauge Guale, Director, identification and assessment, Environmental lab, HidroelectricaIn the context of flooding, an open such as for example the CAPRA de Cahora Bassaflood data and modeling platform probabilistic assessment initiative26, Panelistsallows for the sharing of useful risk can also further support the Hamish Hall, Development Director, Royal Haskoningdata and tools, including models, development of an open and Brenden Jongman, PhDlocally obtained elevation data, participatory environment as well Researcher, VU University ofriver profiles, exposure data and as a better-linked and informed Amsterdaminformation on vulnerability, in an community of practitioners. Zuzana Stanton-Geddes, Disaster Risk Management Consultant, World Bank Hessel Winsemius, Researcher/26 Advisor, Deltares See: http://www.ecapra.org/Further Resources World Bank (2012). Cities and Flooding. A Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management for the 21st Century. By Abhas Jha, Robin Bloch and Jessica Lamond. www.gfdrr.org/gfdrr/urbanfloods World Bank (forthcoming). Disaster Risk Management in East Asia Pacific: A Strategic Guide for Policy Makers. www. worldbank.org/eapdisasters World Bank (2012). Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions. Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho. http://go.worldbank.org/YATD86MXF0. Jongman, B., Ward, P.J. & Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2012). Global exposure to river and coastal flooding: Long term trends and changes. Global Environmental Change, vol. 22, p. 823 – 835, doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.07.004. Winsemius, H.C., Van Beek, L.P.H, Jongman, B., Ward, P.J. & Bouwman, A. (2012). A framework for global river flood risk assessments. Hydrology Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 9611-9659. 65
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR Forum dominica Saint Lucia Saint Vincent SOUTH AFRICAPhoto: Discussing the surface water and slope stability issues and potential drainage solutions at a Mossaic community meeting.
    • Landslide Risk Assessments for Decision-MakingDr. Cees van Westen, Landslide risk is an incredibly multidisciplinaryAssociate Professor, problem: it’s a social problem, a technical engineeringFaculty of Geo-Information problem, a water problem, and a housing problem.Science and Earth Observation,University of Twente 67
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR ForumL andslides are a relatively whereas the actual number was a landslide risk assessment, it is underestimated type of about eight times as high. necessary to have the following hazard and do not seem to information, outlined in Figure 1.show up prominently in disaster Landslides pose an increasing riskstatistics. Individual landslides to many countries, closely related For landslide risk analysis,might not cause such extreme to both demographic pressures and historical data on past landslideslosses as other types of hazards territory mismanagement, such as is indispensable for generatingdo, but since they occur more illegal settlements, deforestation landslide susceptibility maps forfrequently the cumulative effect and lack of appropriate wastewater initiation; as is an analysis of themight be more than one would management. triggering factors of landslides,expect. Furthermore, other which include earthquakes, rainfall,processes often trigger landslides; A sound landslide risk management snow melt, anthropogenic activitiessuch as earthquakes or extreme is based on a landslide risk etc. The main difficulties are thatrainfall events and the resulting assessment. Risk assessments input datasets have a large degreelandslide losses are often grouped provide critical information required of uncertainty.under the main triggering events. to identify suitable strategies and mitigation measures. Landslide susceptibility mapsStudies done by the landslide indicate the zones where landslidesresearch center of Durham Assessing Landslide Risk may occur and the areas that mayUniversity on the actual death toll of Quantitative landslide hazard be affected by landslide runoutlandslides in the past decade revealed and risk assessment is quite a (debris). The terrain is dividedthat in the EM-DAT database the challenge as it involves a number of into zones that have differentdeath toll was less than 10,000 uncertainties. In order to implement likelihoods of landslides occurring.27 Figure 1: Framework for landslide Cost-Benefit Analysis Risk Analysis risk assessment and decision-making Historic data Qualitative Quantitative Stakeholders Triggers Risk communication Suceptibility Objectives assessment; inititiation and runout Scale Hazard assessment Risk Reduction Legal framework Measures Exposure analysis Early warning Vulnerability Risk Evaluation assessment Land use planning Risk estimation Risk acceptability Structural mitigation Decision-Making27 The likelihood may be indicated either qualitatively (as high, moderate low, and not susceptible) or quantitatively (e.g. as the density in number per square kilometers, area affected per square kilometer, safety factor, height or velocity of runout).68
    • Landslide Risk AssessmentSusceptibility maps can show the to the volume, which is often exposed elements at risk (A). Thepotential initiation areas (initiation difficult to collect from inventories. result is a list of specific risk scenarios,susceptibility) and theses maps can The frequency / size analysis of each one with its annual probabilityform an input into the modeling landslide area can be carried out by of occurrence and associated lossesof potential runout areas (runout calculating the probability density (V*A). The specific risk is calculated forsusceptibility). function of the landslide area. many different situations, related to hazard type, return period and type ofA landslide susceptibility assessment Temporal probability assessment element at risk.can be considered as (i) the initial of landslides is either done usingstep towards a quantitative landslide rainfall threshold estimation, Given the large uncertaintyhazard and risk assessment; (ii) an through multi-temporal data sets involved in many of the componentsend product in itself, or (iii) used in in statistical modeling, or through of the hazard and vulnerabilityqualitative risk assessment if there is dynamic modeling. assessment, it is best to indicateinsufficient information available on the losses as minimum, average,past landslide occurrences in order The next step is exposure and and maximum values for a givento assess the spatial, temporal and vulnerability assessment. Exposure temporal probability.magnitude probability of landslides28. assessment analyzes the number of elements at risk and can be carried Using LandslideConverting susceptibility into out by counting the number ofhazard requires information on elements exposed (e.g. number of Risk Assessments intemporal, spatial and intensity buildings), or by expressing them in Decision-Makingprobabilities. In most of the monetary values (e.g. replacement Landslide risk assessments providemethods that convert susceptibility costs); vulnerability assessment the critical information requiredto hazard, triggering events play a analyzes the degree of loss to to identify suitable strategiesmajor role, hence the importance elements with a given intensity. and mitigation measures. Suchof obtaining event-based landslide The limited availability of historical strategies, such as the integrationinventories to determine (i) landslide damage data makes it of landslide hazard zones into land-the temporal probability of the difficult to construct vulnerability use planning, structural measurestrigger; (ii) the spatial probability curves. Therefore at a medium scale, to stabilize slopes, developmentof landslides occurring within the expert opinion and the application of drainage systems or thevarious susceptibility classes; and of simplified vulnerability curves or establishment of early-warning(iii) the intensity probability. vulnerability matrices are used. systems, are all critically dependent on reliable information. However,Intensity probability is the The last component of landslide the complexities associated withprobability of local effects of risk assessment is to integrate the gathering this information presentthe landslides (such as height hazard, exposure, and vulnerability the broad challenges indicated above.of debris, velocity, horizontal or components into an estimation ofvertical displacement, or impact risk. For each hazard scenario with a Based on the estimated risk,pressure). For estimating landslide given temporal probability the losses evaluations should be carried outmagnitudes, the area of landslide are calculated by multiplying the according to pre-defined standards.can be considered as a proxy vulnerability (V) and the amount of However, in many countries a28 Many methods have been proposed for landslide susceptibility assessment, ranging from expert weighting, statistical modeling towards the application of physical models, which require much more input data. Methods for assessing landslide runout may be classified as empirical and analytical/rational. For hazard zoning purposes both methods are widely used given their capability of being integrated in GIS platforms. However, they vary a lot depending on the type of process modeled, the size of the study area (modeling individual events or modeling over an entire area), availability of past occurrences for model validation, and parameterization. 69
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR Forumstandard for risk acceptability does Expansion of economic capability, Dealing withnot exist, leading to unbalanced infrastructure, and residential Incomplete Landslidedecisions. The implementation of capacity requires significantthe most optimal risk reduction investment, and so efforts to limit Inventoriesmeasures should be based on cost/ the negative effects of landslides for Landslidebenefit analysis or cost/effective and other natural hazards on these Susceptibility Mappinganalysis. For such informed decision- investments are crucial. in South Africamaking a reliable estimation of the In response to the needs of locallandslide risk is essential. Many of the newer approaches to and provincial authorities to reduce identifying and mapping landslide economic and social losses due toStakeholders play a crucial role in susceptibility within a developing landslides, the systematic creationthis process, but their participation area are hindered by insufficient of inventories and susceptibilitycan be problematic when there are data in the places where it is most mapping of zones prone to slopemany perspectives and agendas. In needed. instability is currently beingaddition, communicating risk and undertaken for the entire countrythe role of uncertainty is a major An approach called matrix assessment of South Africa.challenge. was originally designed for regional development planning where data Unfortunately, very few researchLandslide may be limited. Its application monographs on local landslideSusceptibility produces a landslide-susceptibility map and slope instability problems suitable for use with other planning exist in the country and noAssessment in the data in a Geographic Information systematic database on pastCaribbean Systems (GIS) environment. Its landslide occurrences is available.In many of the lesser-developed development also generates basic As a result, the available landslideareas of the world, regional landslide inventory data suitable for maps are generalized and merelydevelopment planning is increasingly site-specific studies and for refining highlight qualitatively the relativeimportant for meeting the needs landslide hazard assessments in the landslide incidence and thus hazardof current and future inhabitants. future (Map 1). susceptibility at a regional scale. This example demonstrates how In the Limpopo Province, erratic N this methodology can be applied heavy-rainfall events are increasing in a geologically complex setting. in frequency and provide an impetusSYMBOLS A validated approach to mapping to rapidly map this geohazard in Peak landslide susceptibility, which does the interests of community safety. A River not require extensive input data, preliminary susceptibility map based offers a significant benefit to on a semiquantitative, bivariate planning in lesser-developed parts statistical approach and multicriterion of the world. fuzzy-set decision theory can now guide planning in the typically hilly Layou River areas constraining rural community development (Map 2). The greatest value of the maps Map 1: Dominica, is in raising general public and Roseau River West Indies government awareness of this Landslide Susceptibility SCALE n Low n Moderate geohazard. 0 2 4 6 8 10 Km n High n Extreme70
    • Landslide Risk AssessmentLegend Confirmed slides Towns N Roads MoSSaiC methodologies, whileSusceptibility the final component involves the High: 4 implementation of the landslide reduction measures in the selected Low: 1 communities. For more information see: http://www.mossaic.org/ Contributors to the session 0 25 50 100 150 200 Km Co-Session Lead: Souleymane Diop, EngineeringMap 2: Resulting landslide susceptibility map of Limpopo province Geologist, Engineering Geoscience Unit, Council for GeoscienceA Community-based MoSSaiC methodology and its Professor Malcolm G. Andersen, application. This outlines the Visiting Professor of Hydrology,Approach for Landslide University of Oxford; Professor of best practices for landslideRisk Reduction in risk reduction and promotes Hydrology, University of BristolJamaica safer slope management in Jerome V. De Graff, Geologist, Adjunct Faculty, California StateThe Management of Slope vulnerable communities. The University, FresnoStability in Communities (MoSSaiC) second entails training on themethodology, which has beensuccessfully implemented in SaintLucia, Dominica and Saint Vincent,is a methodology that engagespolicymakers, community members inparticular, managers and practitionersin reducing landslide risk.The focus of the work is firmlyembedded in the communities.It uses existing within-countrycapacity to reduce urban landslidehazard and identifies hazard driversto justify interventions.The project comprises of threecomponents, the first of which What is causing landslides?involves the development ofa toolkit and a short video on Figure 3: Understanding slopes: what causes landslides in urbanized slopesFurther Resources Durham University Landslide Research Center: http://www.landslidecentre.org/ Guidelines and documents from the SafeLand project: SafeLand was a Large-scale integrating Collaborative research project funded by Seventh Framework Programme for research and technological development (FP7) of the European Commission. Thematically the project belongs to Cooperation Theme 6 Environment (including climate change), Sub-Activity 6.1.3 Natural Hazards. The project team composed of 27 institutions from 13 European countries produced a number of very interesting guidelines and documents related to landslide hazard and risk assessment and risk management. The documents can be downloaded at: http://www.safeland-fp7.eu/results/Pages/ Summaryreport.aspx 71
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR ForumPhoto: Colfax County, North Dakota, U.S.A. Supercell produced 3 tornadoes and softball sized hail. © Christopher White | Dreamstime.com
    • USA ZambeZi basin la reunion SOUTH AFRICAMeteorological,Hydrological, andClimate Services toSupport Risk AnalysisEugene Poolman, Chief Meteorological, hydrological, and climate servicesForecaster, Disaster Risk routinely develop hazard products and services, withReduction, South African great potential to support disaster risk managementWeather Service, &Jean-Baptiste (DRM), including risk analysis. During this session lessonsMigraine, Disaster Risk from new partnerships with DRM entities and technicalManagement Specialist, partners involved in risk analysis and mapping wereGlobal Facility for Disaster shared.Reduction and Recovery 73
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR Forum hydro-meteorological hazards haveE very year, disasters related to to develop partnerships to address meteorological, hydrological, increased, but the human toll has these challenges. and climate hazards cause fallen dramatically. This is thanks tosignificant loss of life, and set back scientific advances in forecasting, Meteorological,economic and social development. combined with proactive disaster Hydrological andDisaster statistics indicate that risk reduction (DRR) policies90 % of events, 71 % of casualties and tools, including risk analysis, Climate Servicesand 78 % of related economic losses contingency planning and early for Risk Analysisare caused by weather-, climate- warning systems.30and water-related hazards such 1. Tropical Cyclonesas droughts, floods, windstorms, This session outlined the Dissemination of tropical cyclonetropical cyclones, storm surges, development of risk analysis hazard information is a good exampleextreme temperatures, landslides products for tropical cyclones, floods, of efficient regional and internationaland wild fires, or by health epidemics and drought by meteorological, coordination. In 1972 the WMOand insect infestations directly linked hydrological, and climate services, at Tropical Cyclone Program designatedto meteorological and hydrological the global and local level. A number specialized centers in La Réunion,conditions. Over the past five of challenges were identified as New Delhi, Tokyo, Honolulu, Nadi,decades, economic losses related to well as a series of steps forward and Miami to provide forecasts and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Risk Analysis T he WMO is launching an Expert Advisory Group on Meteorological, hydrological Hazard/Risk Analysis that will provide guidance on: and climate observations (i) Standards and guidelines for hazard definition and monitoring; (ii) Standardization of hazard databases and m te metadata; (iii) Geographic Information Systems (GIS)- s 189 Members Sy n based hazard analysis; and (iv) Forecasting of hazard io National Meteorological and at Hydrological Service ic characteristics, for meteorological, hydrological, and un Meteorological, hydrological and climate m value-added products and warning advisories om climate related hazards. l ec Te The guidelines will be issued by 2015 through the al ob Gl work of the WMO Technical Commissions, in cooperation with the Expert Advisory Group. Global Data Processing and This new Group will strongly support core disaster risk Forecasting System reduction (DRR) activities of meteorological, hydrological, and climate services, including risk analysis to support strategic planning, institutional and operational of science-based and customized climate services capacity development to support multi-hazard early for DRR at national, regional, and global levels. It is warning systems, disaster risk financing, sectoral risk assisting its members in the implementation of the WMO management, and humanitarian planning and response. Information System (WIS), an online tool that will enable The WMO is also setting-up the Global Framework access to meteorological, hydrological, and climate data for Climate Services that aims to improve availability to a wider community of users. For more information see: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/index_en.html29 Munich RE. (2012).30 Ibid.74
    • Meteorological, Hydrological, and Climate maintain ‘best-track’ databases for their respective area of responsibility. Databases include 6-hourly positions of the storms’ centers and relevant parameters on intensity, size, and structure (see Figure 1). The Tropical Cyclone hazard map of the Global Assessment Report (GAR) is built upon information from these six centers (Figure 2). FIGURE 1: 6 WMO-designated Tropical Cyclone Basins and Regional Specialized At the regional level, Météo-France Meteorological Centers in La Réunion is the tropical cyclone regional specialized center for the southwestern part of the Indian Ocean. Its current activities include “re-analyzing” past satellite imagery (1978-1998) to improve the quality of the tropical cyclone database for the southwestern Indian Ocean, and to identify trends in the evolution of tropical cyclone activity (Figure 3). Tropical Cyclones – Sum of wind (km/year) The center is also contributing Less than 250 250-500 500-1000 1000-2000 2000-3153 to a risk modeling project for La FIGURE 2: Hazard layer in the Global Assessment Report – GAR 2009 Réunion with regards to storm (See: http://www.understandrisk.org/sites/default/files/files/useruploads/02- surge, windstorm, and surface maskrey-gar.pdf). water flooding. The model under development will define the DATA SET: 1978347SH20041–mmm. 1978.12.24.1228.30.NOAA–5.000.hursot–avhtt.beta HURSAT–AVHRR relationship between hazard 12°S 45 intensity and expected damage 9 for the development of loss 16°S -31 exceedance curves and event-by- -42 event losses scenarios. 20°S -54LATITUDE In this context, Météo-France is -64 24°S providing historical hazard data -70 about tropical storms and climate 28°S -78 records of wind and rainfall hazards -81 in La Réunion. It is also providing 32°S -100 25°E 32°E 36°E 49°E 44°E 48°E expert advice for the project LONGITUDE Brightness_Temperature_Ch_4(Celcius)–11.0um implementation to enable utilization FIGURE 3: Météo-France in la Réunion is re-analyzing past cyclone tracks to of hazard information in the risk estimate parameters and control quality of historical databases. modeling process. 75
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR ForumFIGURE 4: Flood Hazard Map (event frequency for cyclone surges, river flooding, and tsunamis) in the GAR 20112. Floods across administrative boundaries and national DRM authorities.The development of a global harmo- and across fields of expertise. These maps will be used for land-nized flood hazard dataset remains Meteorological and hydrological use and urban planning, DRM anda challenge. Numerous parameters agencies are typically expected emergency preparedness, as wellcan be recorded to characterize to collaborate with emergency as for enhanced water resourcesflooding situations, but global stan- response agencies, as well as with a management (Figure 5).dards have yet to be developed. number of sectoral agencies (such as agriculture, transport, energy). 3. DroughtThe river flood frequency dataset Despite the repeated occurrencesused for the GAR is based upon The Zambezi Basin was presented of droughts throughout history anda combination of: (i) Statistical as a successful example, whereby their large impacts, standard dataestimation of peak-flow and national meteorological and collection and methods for droughtrelated river stage; (ii) Observed hydrological services developed hazard assessment and monitoringfloods from 1999 to 2007, from hazard maps together with local are still at a very early stage.the Dartmouth Flood Observatory(DFO); and (iii) Hydrological recordsfrom national hydrological services(Figure 4).Flood hazard and risk analysisare typically relevant at thescale of the watershed and areoften developed with the view toinfluence policies and plans withinspecific administrative boundaries.The development of flood hazardand risk analyses thereforerequires complex collaborations FIGURE 5: Flood Inundation Area Map - Zambezi Basin76
    • Meteorological, Hydrological, and ClimateThere are several types of Drought Information Systemdrought, including meteorological, (NIDIS), and the United Nationsagricultural, and hydrological. International Strategy for DisasterAlthough meteorological drought Reduction (UN ISDR).31is increasingly well characterized,the measurement of agricultural Drought typically affects largeand hydrological drought remains a territories, crosses statechallenge since it depends not only boundaries, and spans long periodson a wide range of physical factors of time. “Climate Outlook Forums”(rainfall, soil moisture, temperature, have been organized to providesoil and crop type, stream flow, consensus projections for the FIGURE 6: Rainfall forecast forgroundwater, snow pack) but also 3-6 months in the greater Horn January-March 2012, as issued by the Southern Africa Regional Climateon socio-economic factors (for of Africa, Southern Africa, West Outlook Forum in August 2011example, land, labor and capital Africa, Asia, South Asia, Centralassets, adaptive capacity, trade-offs America, Caribbean, Western Coast agencies on drought-related issues.between profit-maximizing and risk- of South America, Southeast of The US Drought Monitor tool isreduction, etc.). South America, Pacific Islands, and an important output resulting Southeastern Europe (Figure 6). from these collaborations. SinceWMO adopted the Standardized 2006, the US routinely producesPrecipitation Index (SPI) as a global In the United States (US), the local-scale information (i.e., countystandard to measure meteorological 1998 National Drought Policy Act to sub-county level) regardingdroughts in 2009. However, 20–30 guarantees relevant collaboration the level of drought stress onyears (optimally 50–60 years) of between different government vegetation in near real-time. Themonthly rainfall data is needed tocalculate the SPI and many gaps Vegetation Drought Response Index October 15, 2012 Completeexist in data series in drought-prone regions. Interpolationtechniques still need to be validatedfor the development of a globaldataset satisfactorily representingmeteorological drought hazard.The measurement of agriculturaland hydrological drought at theglobal scale remains an even morecomplex challenge, since no agreedglobal standard exists. Vegetation Condition Extreme Drought Unusually Moist Severe Drought Very MoistA number of National Drought Early Moderate Drought Pre-Drought Extremely Moist Out of SeasonWarning Information Systems are Near Normal Watercurrently getting assessed through FIGURE 7: In the US, the Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI)a collaborative process involving combines satellite-based observations of vegetation conditions, climate-basedWMO, the National Integrated drought indexes and biophysical characteristics.31 This assessment will be presented at the High Level Meeting on National Drought Policy (11-15 March 2013), which is expected to influence the development of sound national frameworks for drought risk management. 77
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR Forum A Collaborative Approach by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) The South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) is piloting a number of risk assessment applications developed in partnership with the National Disaster Management Center (NDMC) and involving various sectors at local, national and regional levels. With 130 automatic weather stations, 112 climate stations, 1512 rainfall stations, its radar network, lightning detection network and air quality monitoring network, SAWS performs hazard observations, monitoring, and forecasting. It supports the Southern Africa region through a number of climate-related activities, notably “Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Projects” and “Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum”. At the national level, SAWS provided reports, data, and products for hazard and risk assessment needs of various disaster management agencies. For example, guidance for flash flood risk estimation or potential drought conditions are provided in real-time to all users (water, agriculture, transport, etc.). The SAWS has statistics on the likely occurrence of extreme weather phenomena with a historical database of weather events since 1900, CAELUM. This database has been instrumental for improving and validating the EM- DAT database for South Africa.resulting Vegetation Drought climate information catalog and guidelines for hazard definition andResponse Index (VegDRI) is a perfect get information about where monitoring; (ii) standardization ofexample of collaboration across information is available, and the hazard databases and metadata; (iii)sectors, linking early information with conditions of availability. The WIS Geographic Information Systemsa wide range of users. is being established at the national (GIS)-based hazard analysis; level by WMO members and should and (iv) forecasting of hazardThe Way Forward progressively become operational characteristics. Furthermore,The session identified a number in 2013. Close partnerships through cooperation with Memberof challenges regarding the between agencies responsible for States and Regional Specializedparticipation of meteorological, meteorology, hydrology, climate, Centers, the DRR Program will workhydrological, and climate services and those in charge of mapping, to ensure that a set of standardin the development of risk analysis planning, and sectoral developments hazard databases are availableproducts; some existing initiatives are therefore very timely in this regionally through strengthenedaddress these challenges: context, so as to allow for the data sharing among Members and better understanding and utilization Global and Regional Specialized(i) The knowledge of the existence of meteorological, hydrological, and Meteorological and Climate Centersof some products and services is climate services for risk mapping. for the development of regionalstill limited to a small network of hazard maps and related services tospecialists. The latest progress with (ii) Often the available products are support regional cooperation.WMO Information System (WIS) either not sufficiently standardizedand Global Telecommunication and customized or not “user- (iii) Coordination and sharing ofSystem (GTS) will enable data friendly” enough to be used directly data across sectors is insufficient.catalogs to be accessed online by by the risk mapping community. The Global Framework fora wider community of users. At The WMO DRR Program Expert Climate Services (GFCS), whichthe global level, the WIS will allow Advisory Group on Hazard and is under development, shouldusers outside the meteorological Risk Analysis, to be launched partially address this need withcommunity to access the early 2013, will provide guidance the following five components:meteorological, hydrological, and with respect to: (i) standards and (i) User Interface Platform; (ii)78
    • Meteorological, Hydrological, and ClimateServices Information System; (iii) (v) There are challenges for flood drought hazard, the development ofObservations and Monitoring; (iv) hazard information that relate a global drought hazard dataset stillResearch, Modeling and Prediction; to collaboration needs between remains a challenge. Drought hazardand (v) Capacity- building. The goal meteorological, hydrological, and assessment requires enhancedis to better coordinate existing climate services and a number national and regional drought policydata for decision-making for the of sectoral agencies (agriculture, frameworks, coordination betweenfood security, water management, energy, dam management, etc.), in institutions, and inclusion of socialDRR, and health sectors. GFCS will a context where watersheds often indicators. The WMO, the Worldbuild upon developments of WMO cross administrative boundaries. Bank, and its partners are workingand its partners to ensure that Precise elevation data is often on the development and promotionclimate services can be provided missing and the development of integrated drought, and droughtoperationally to support these of hydrological models remains risk, management, spanning policy,sectors and decision areas. complex. In addition, a number of institutional and technical aspects. areas are affected by a combination(iv) Some products and services are of riverine, flash flood, storm Contributors to the sessioneither not available, or available at surge or tsunami-related flooding, Maryam Golnaraghi, Chiefa cost which is unaffordable to the requiring even wider collaboration of Disaster Risk ReductionDRM community. WMO Resolution strategies. Governance frameworks Programme, World Meteorological40 of 1995 and Resolution 25 are evolving in countries, and new Organisation Andrew Maskrey, Coordinatorof 1999 call for open exchange technologies are becoming available of the Global Assessment Report,of respectively meteorological worldwide that should contribute United Nations Internationaland hydrological “essential” data to the enhanced availability and Strategy for Disaster Risk Reductionand products, at least those accuracy of flood hazard information. Philippe Caroff, Chief Forecaster,contributing to the “protection of La Météo-France La Réunionlife and property and the well being (vi) Drought hazard information Tropical Cyclone Regional Specialised Meteorological Centerof all nations”. However, a number is provided by a number of Osborne Shela, Water Resourcesof issues still prevent data from organizations, but there is no Specialist and Managing Directorbeing openly exchanged, including commonly shared definition of of Majiatua Engineering Services and Geoscope Consultancycommercial interests, national the drought hazard. While some Services Associatesecurity, absence of data, or the national meteorological and Roger Pulwarty, Chief, Climatelack of institutional partnerships. hydrological services are organized and Societal Interactions DivisionAvailability of open data and in “Regional Climate Outlook and Director, National Integrated Drought Information System,products is still highly variable from Forums,” and are able to develop National Oceanic and Atmosphericcountry-to-country. an agreed understanding about Administration Further Resources World Bank and GFDRR support to Weather and Climate Information and Decision-Support Systems: http://www. gfdrr.org/gfdrr/WCIDS Disaster Risk Reduction Programme of the World Meteorological Organization: http://www.wmo.int/disasters WMO at a Glance: http://www.wmo.int/pages/about/documents/WMO990.pdf Regional Climate Outlook Forums for Drought Hazard Analysis: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/RCOF_ Concept.html and http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/clips/outlooks/climate_forecasts.html WMO Information System: http://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/wis/index_en.html Implementation plan of the global framework for climate services: http://www.wmo.int/pages/gfcs/office/documents/ GCFSIPv2.pdf Hazard data used for the Global Assessment Report is available from the Global Risk Data Platform: http://preview. grid.unep.ch/ 79
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR ForumPhoto: Earth at night showing city lights of Africa and Europe. Credit © Thinkstock.com80
    • ghana kenya SOUTH AFRICAWorking Together to AdvanceEarthquake RiskAssessment Dr. Rui Pinho, Secretary General, Global Earthquake Model By working together globally we can share data, approaches, and tools that will help us better understand earthquake risk.D espite it being well-known Several mega-cities in the region Global Collaboration that earthquakes can are located near active rifts and To rigorously determine and cause significant damage, tectonic elements (such as Nairobi understand seismic risk as an inputearthquake risk assessment and Accra) and would suffer greatly to decision-making to reduce ortools and data are out of reach in from an earthquake. Moreover, transfer risk, one needs to notmany areas of the world. There seismologists in the region areare currently no global standards facing challenges in estimating Global Earthquake Modelthat allow us to compare risk earthquake risk reliably andand approaches for risk analysis, providing the information necessary The Global Earthquake Modeldespite recent earthquake events for governments and agencies to (GEM) serves as an internationalin Sumatra, Christchurch, and build resilience. forum for collaboration and knowledge exchange toTohoku, showing us the importance jointly advance seismic riskof working together to better However, the latest scientific and assessment as an input for riskunderstand earthquake behaviour technological developments, open- mitigation and management.and consequences. source and open data approaches, Through global projects, and increased international regional collaborations, andSeismic risk is on the rise in Sub- collaboration, are enabling open-source software, theSaharan Africa due to increased organizations and individuals in GEM community is developingurbanization and population the region to make use of existing tools and resources that allowgrowth. However, short-term initiatives, knowledge, tools and organizations and practitionerscrises and other pressing issues data, to analyze and understand to transparently analyzeare higher on the agenda of most seismic risk collaboratively. earthquake risk anywhere indecision-makers, resulting in an the world.underestimation of seismic risk. www.globalquakemodel.org 81
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR Forum Utilizing GEM There are many ways in which scientists, governments, and organisations can use and build upon GEM. In 2014 a platform for risk assessment will become available that will integrate open source tools, global datasets, models, and risk information (maps, indicators, etc.). Some key products will become available before 2014, such as the global instrumental catalogue that leading experts are currently putting together. More than 20,000 earthquakes that happened between 1900 and 2009 were re-examined and assembled in a single database, following the same method. The OpenQuake engine, a software that allows users to calculate seismic hazard and seismic risk at any scale, was released to GEM’s stakeholders in 2011 to provide users and organisations worldwide with the opportunity to use and test it, while it is being developed and enhanced. Regional programmes, such as the Earthquake Model for the Middle East (EMME) and the Seismic Hazard Harmonisation in Europe (SHARE) in Europe, are using this open-source software to develop models for seismic hazard and risk. In other regions, the GEM Foundation promotes collaboration on seismic risk through technology transfer sessions, both on the theory of hazard and risk assessment, and the use of the software. During the 2012 UR Forum, 30 scientists from the region were invited to participate in meetings and technical sessions. Worldwide more than 150 users (from 45 countries) have been testing and using the software, and improving it jointly so it can serve a variety of stakeholders in assessing their risk and in comparing outputs. For example, Ecuador’s new seismic hazard maps are calculated with the software and GEM partners are using the software in a variety of ways. Geoscience Australia used OpenQuake during training on earthquake risk modelling for Asia-Pacific scientists.only look at past data but also urbanization on the rise, more than has been mainly on seismic hazard,the geophysics of the earth, the in any other continent, the risk of not risk. These factors result inelements at risk, and the vulnerability serious losses and damages caused people, and more importantlyof buildings and of society. by an earthquake is increasing. decision-makers, generally underestimating earthquake risk inCollecting and integrating datasets In mega-cities like Accra, Nairobi, Sub-Saharan Africa.on all these elements for the globe and Johannesburg the risk is veryis a huge effort that requires real. But even there, where people The challenges the region faces incollaborative contributions from live near, or on fault lines, they earthquake risk analysis is visualizedscientists, governments, and are not aware of the risk they are in Figure 1.organizations worldwide. facing. The fact that many people are moving from rural housing built There are various steps thatEarthquake Hazard and from natural materials to poorly can be taken to overcome theseRisk in Sub-Saharan constructed concrete and brick challenges:Africa buildings only aggravates the risk.Earthquakes impacted Ethiopia, 1 Moving from TrainingsMozambique, Botswana, Malawi and The capacity of seismic research to PartnershipsMadagascar, countries that lie along institutes in the region is also limited. Scientific cooperation betweenthe East African Rift system, in the Natural hazards such as drought and developed and developing countrieslast decade. The risk of earthquakes flood mainly receive the attention is currently mainly focused onis rising in many countries. With of governments and donors. training. However, often thosehigh population growth and Furthermore, the focus historically trained tend to work outside82
    • Earthquake Risk AssessmentFIGURE 1 Poor seismic stations Loss of trained people coverage to the diaspora Poor national and Poor skills for hazard Inadequated finances Inadequated finances regional data and risk modelling for collaborative research for software Poor seismic hazard analysis, vulnerability assessment and lack of risk analysistheir region. What is needed is to is critical. We need to facilitate data 4 Communicating Riskmove from training to creating an collaboration by aggregating data in to Governmentsinfrastructure that facilitates and a way that is more valuable to the With the right tools and data,stimulates much-needed in-country providers. scientists and practitionersresearch. in the region can produce the One example is data on buildings models, maps, and estimatesOne option is to create more equal in Sub-Saharan Africa. In order to of human, infrastructure, andresearch partnerships between develop seismic risk profiles it is financial impact that can helpAfrican institutions and institutions important that data and knowledge governments make decisionsin developed countries. This will on African buildings is brought related to urban and financialenable local institutions to become together. GEM has been encouraging structural engineers to collaborate planning, risk reduction, andmore than data providers and on issues such as identifying the key transferring risk through financialinvestments in sustainable research building typologies that exists in the mechanisms. Developing such bestinfrastructure would serve as a base region, providing input on the cost of practice information requires datafor risk mitigation in the area. repair and replacement of buildings, collection, research collaboration, and providing comments on the GEM and capacity-building. 2 Engaging the Diaspora global building taxonomy and theEven though scientists move global exposure database. The data Advancing Seismicabroad, there are ways to keepthem involved in seismic hazard and and knowledge they contribute can Hazard and Risk be shared both with GEM and with arisk assessment in their country of Assessment in Sub- wider community.origin. There are inspiring examples Saharan Africaof North African scientists in Within the OpenQuake platform, In order to overcome theseEurope or the USA who are actively users will have the option to share challenges, scientists in Sub-facilitating joint projects at home. data and risk analyses or keep Saharan Africa are leveraging theIt is important to promote and them to themselves and/or trusted GEM platform to create a localfacilitate such links further. contacts. By providing a forum collaborative project for seismic for discussion, collaborators can hazard assessment and risk 3 Creating Collaborators learn from each other and perform estimation.Many institutions and individuals better risk assessments. This will infear that they are being used for turn hopefully stimulate others to The regional program has four maintheir data. Changing this perception participate. goals: 83
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR Forum 1 To ensure that global Collection, harmonization and Foster collaborative research standards and procedures integration of data in order to with institutions in developed are compatible with African model and map seismic hazard in countries; conditions the region; Sensitize governments to 2 To transfer knowledge Collection of data on buildings support and maintain local and technology to African and people in a systematic capacity; practitioners and scientists manner in order to move from seismic hazard mapping to risk Promote awareness among 3 To apply GEM tools to reduce analysis; governmental institutions, earthquake risk in Africa the construction sector, and Build capacity to archive the general public at large on 4 To contribute to the current and future earthquakes seismic risk. development of earthquake (investing in monitoring resistant African equipment, training of scientists The GEM Sub-Saharan Africa infrastructure and technicians); group invites all scientists and practitioners in the region toBy building on existing networks, Increase research activity, get involved in this initiative toknowledge and data, the collaboration in the region, and advance seismic hazard and riskcollaborators of the initiative have participation in international assessment in the region together,identified opportunities to work conferences; and invites local governments andtogether on a number of areas: (international) organizations to help sustain the effort. Contributors to the session Atalay Ayele Ray Durrheim Dumisani John Hlatywayo Seismologist, Institute of Research Chair in Exploration, Dean-Faculty of Applied Science, Geophysics Space Science and Earthquake & Mining Seismology, National University of Science and Astronomy, Addis Ababa University CSIR Centre for Mining Innovation Technology, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe; and Operations Manager of the and the University of the Geophysicist (Seismology), Regional Programme GEM Sub- Witwatersrand, coordinator of Chairman of the Eastern and Saharan Africa Africa Array, and advisor GEM Southern Africa Regional Sub-Saharan Africa Seismological Group (ESARSWG); Helen Crowley ESARSWG Coordinator for Executive Committee Risk Mohamed El Gabry Sub-Saharan GEM Africa Coordinator, GEM Foundation Research National Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics Nicole Keller Egypt, Post Doc at Institute de International Relations and Physique du Globe, Université de Communications Coordinator, GEM Strasbourg Operations Manager Foundation of the Regional Programme GEM North-Africa84
    • Capacity-Building Sessions at the 2012 Forum Mapping Global Risk An Africa, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) - European Union (EU) Sponsored Event During the Understanding Risk (UR) Forum a series of community meetings and training sessions in tools and emerging applications for disaster risk assessment were organized. The sessions were targeted at participants from Africa, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries. With ACP- EU funds various disaster risk management practitioners from government agencies were nominated to attend the training. The aim of the training events was to promote knowledge exchange and build technical capacity. The sessions created an enabling environment for further growth and development, opening up discussions on how to promote the disaster risk agenda further in these regions, and particularly in Africa. All of the tools highlighted in the training sessions are open and participatory tools. 1 CAPRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) Program 2 GEM Technical Training 3 GeoNode and Scenario Assessment for Emergencies (SAFE) 4 OpenStreetMap (OSM) 5 Disaster Loss Accounting with DesInventar 85
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR Forum1. CAPRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) Program Platform may be used to support the design of risk reduction measure including risk-financing strategies. This training session at the UR Forum introduced the CAPRA probabilistic framework and provided various examples of applications derived from probabilistic risk assessments related to flood and seismic risk assessment modules. During this event, the CAPRA Program also held a community of practice meeting, which focused on sharing knowledge and experiences implementing Technical Assistance Projects (TAPs). TAPs are partnerships between the World Bank and government institutions to support government agencies with specific needs requiring disaster riskT he objective of the CAPRA Program is to support disaster risk management (DRM) mainstreaminginto country development policies and programs information within the context of the CAPRA Program’s institutional strengthening framework. This meeting shared and discussed the lessons learned from eightby providing methodologies and tools to generate, TAPs between Latin American and the Caribbean andunderstand, and integrate disaster risk information South Asia region.through capacity-building and strategic technicalassistance. The CAPRA Program offers a free and For more information, please visit:open source multi-hazard software Platform for risk http://www.ecapra.orgassessment and decision-making support. The Platformcombines hazard information with exposure and Trainers: Fernando Ramirez, Oscar Ishizawa, and Erikaphysical vulnerability data, allowing users to determine Vargas, World Bank and Eduardo Reinoso, Carolinarisk on an inter-related multi-hazard basis. The CAPRA Rogelis, Evaluacion de Riesgos Naturales (ERN)2. GEM Technical TrainingG lobal Earthquake Model (GEM) is a global effort to collaboratively develop and enhance databases,methodologies, (software) tools, and resources forearthquake risk assessment across the globe.The OpenQuake Platform is being developed tointegrate all of these elements in a single intuitive GIS-environment. Based on the contributions of hundredsof collaborating organizations and experts worldwide,from 2014 onwards the platform will allow users tocalculate, share, and explore risk from earthquakes inmany different ways. The complex calculations that are The OpenQuake Engine is an advanced, science-basedthe basis for estimating seismic risk can be carried out software for seismic hazard and risk calculations atwith an open-source software that is already available any scale. The outputs users can produce with itin a preliminary version for worldwide testing: the range from hazard maps to event-loss tables and riskOpenQuake Engine. scenarios. Currently the engine has users from more86
    • www.understandrisk.orgthan 45 countries; individuals and organizations that of technology transfer sessions, including training andare active in the fields of (earthquake) hazard and risk exercises with the OpenQuake Engine to ease workingassessment. The further development of OpenQuake with it.Engine is based on the requirements that emanate For more information on OpenQuake, please visit:from scientists and practitioners from around the http://www.globalquakemodel.org/world, within the scope of GEM. Trainers: Atalay Ayele, Helen Crowley, Mohamed ElDuring the UR Forum, GEM brought together thirty Gabry, Marco Pagani, Graeme Weatherill and Ben Wyssscientists from around Africa to participate in a number - Global Earthquake Model3. GeoNode and Scenario Assessment for Emergencies (SAFE)G eoNode is an open-source platform that facilitates the creation, sharing and collaborative use ofgeospatial data and supports other risk assessmenttools such as CAPRA (GeoNode provides the datamanagement for CAPRA) and Scenario Assessment forEmergencies (SAFE).The tool is build upon free open-source software andis designed to allow non-technical users to easily sharetheir data and use it to create interactive maps. GeoNodesurpasses existing spatial data infrastructure solutions byintegrating robust social and cartographic tools.SAFE is a suite of innovative web-based open-source The tool can be used for rapid post-disaster impacttools aimed at helping decision-makers understand the estimation, contingency planning, infrastructure /risk of natural hazards and build resilience. By producing spatial planning and multi-hazard impact assessment.realistic natural hazard impact scenarios, decision- While pioneered in Indonesia, the approach and toolsmakers can implement better planning, preparedness are now being adapted in other regions.and response activities. GeoNode and SAFE are part of the Open Data forSAFE provides a simple yet rigorous way to combine Resilience Initiative (OpenDRI), a GFDRR initiative thatdata from scientists, local governments and promotes the sharing of hazard and risk data (http://communities to provide insights into the likely effects www.gfdrr.org/gfdrr/opendri).of future disaster events. The software is focused For more information please visit:on examining the impacts that a series of hazard http://geonode.org/ and http://inasafe.org/scenarios have on specific sectors. The vision is to beable to rapidly customize risk information for different Trainers: Robert Soden, Ariel Nunez, and Abigail Baca,stakeholders with an interactive, decision-oriented GFDRR Labs World Banktool. The software leads users through the impactanalysis process and has tools to estimate the likelydamage that a hazard will cause to people and criticalinfrastructure such as schools, hospitals, roads, etc. 87
    • Proceedings from the 2012 UR Forum4. OpenStreetMap (OSM)O penStreetMap (OSM) is an Internet project with the goal of creating a free global map ofhuman settlement and the natural environment.Like Wikipedia, OSM benefits from the ongoing inputof thousands of people around the world who areteamed to create accurate, detailed, and up-to-datemaps. Worldwide, the OSM community collects dataon roads, railways, paths, waterways, and even bicycle OSM has been used in many contexts around the worldroutes. In addition to the transportation ways that are including disaster response and disaster risk reductionmapped, data is gathered on features along the roads, (DRR). For DRR, OSM provides a methodology forsuch as businesses, buildings (private and public), parks collecting exposure data for risk assessment. Havingand natural areas, land use, cultural resources, and a community dedicated to this cause ensures thatrecreational facilities. the data increases in detail and currency. The training session at UR taught participants how to join thisBesides being comprehensive, the data of OSM maps community and discussed the benefits of free and openis also of high quality. On other maps, roads may not be map data, as well as how they can begin using it in theirprecisely aligned, trails may be missing, and important own projects.features can be ignored. Furthermore, other maps caninclude nonexistent ‘trap streets’ to catch illicit copiers. For more information please visit: http://www.openstreetmap.org/However, at OSM data is reviewed and corrected bydozens of contributors, especially data from urban Trainers: Kate Chapman and Pierre Beland -areas, and they are free to fix any errors they find. Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team5. Disaster Loss Accounting with DesInventar Rigorously accounting and analyzing disaster losses through the development of national disaster databases represents a low-cost, high-impact strategy to fill this gap, and is the crucial first step to generate the information necessary for accurate risk assessments and to inform public policy in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Later on the physical losses recorded in the databases can be translated into monetary/economic losses enabling an initial evidence-based estimate of recurrent losses. The DesInventar training session at the UnderstandingT he Disaster Inventory System – DesInventar (Sistema de Inventario de Desastres) isa conceptual and methodological tool for the Risk Forum illustrated practical, proven and simple tools to build disaster loss databases and methods to analyze and use its information.construction of databases of loss, damage, or effectscaused by emergencies or disasters. Without credible For more information on this tool, please visit:loss and damage estimates it is difficult to generate http://www.desinventar.org/en/the political momentum for increasing investment in Trainer: Julio Serje, UNISDRrisk reduction and climate change adaptation.88
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    • Understanding Risk Team
    • Feedback from the UR Community on UR2012 Watch live interviews from participants of the 2012 Forum online: https://www.understandrisk.org/page/closing-video “UR2012 was a great opportunity to learn and understand how institutions, countries and regions are progressing in Disaster Risk Assessment and Management.” —Annie Edwards, Physical Planning Division, Ministry of Environment, Natural Resources Physical Planning and Fisheries, Dominica “It was a remarkably balanced program between social interaction opportunities and technical exchanges. As a technical specialist, I greatly appreciated broadening my perceptions of risk to include financial and conceptual aspects of risk management.” —Jerome De Graff, California State University, Fresno “A gathering of a very interesting mix of people from governments, financing, (re)insurance, NGOs, knowledge institutes, all exchanging their information needs and information availability and new possibilities. Excellent meeting about an exciting cross-discipline subject, where a lot is still to be learned and developed together!” —Hessel Winsemius, Deltares “Good networking and sound boarding opportunity. Allows me to get an understanding of how things are being done in other parts of the world and to promote best practice.” —Nabeel Rylands, Western Cape Provincial Disaster Management Centre, South Africa “Common problem, common efforts, common wisdom, common gains!” —Amod Mani Dixit, NSET “The Understanding Risk Community provides an opportunity to learn of new or different concepts and methodologies that stimulate creative approaches to improving resilience.” —John Kelmelis, Pennsylvania State University “The UR Community creates an environment for sharing experiences and increasing translational knowledge in the hopes of empowering its members as leaders in the reduction of disaster risk consequences.” —Carl Taylor, Fraser Institute for Health Research “As risks are shared, so are solutions. And that is what this community is about”. —Daniel Boshoff, SantamIn the framework of the ACP-EU Natural Disaster Risk Reduction Programmanaged by GFDRR www.understandrisk.org