Tsunami risk reduction strategies
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Tsunami risk reduction strategies

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The Science Applications for Risk Reduction Tsunami Scenario. Perspectives on what can be done to become tsuanmi disaster resilient. Presentation courtesy of Dr Walter Hays, Global Alliance for ...

The Science Applications for Risk Reduction Tsunami Scenario. Perspectives on what can be done to become tsuanmi disaster resilient. Presentation courtesy of Dr Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction

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  • These images show how the vertical displacement of the ocean floor starts the generation of tsunami waves
  • There are several ways that a tsunami wave crest may appear to observers on the shore. The first is like a very quick rising of the tide. The second is a large cresting wave. The most often described appearance is called a bore. A bore appears like a wall of approaching water that is significantly higher than the existing water level. The image shows an example of a tidal bore in China. Although the bore shown is not a tsunami bore, it still demonstrates the appearance and characteristics of a bore that could be generated by a tsunami. Tsunamis generate a wave series that may continue for many hours. The first wave is rarely the largest in the series. Much damage can be caused by the outflow of water back to the ocean between waves. In some cases this reversed flow can cause more damage than the incoming waves.
  • Education is the most important factor in tsunami risk reduction. There are newspaper reports of a 10-year-old girl sending 100 people on one Thai beach to higher ground after seeing the sea recede, because she had been taught about tsunamis in school. The UN wants disaster reduction to be included in school curricula worldwide.
  • Victor was a former merchant seaman who had experienced a tsunami in Chile. When the water receded in his village, he ran around telling his neighbors to run for it. As a result, only one of several hundred inhabitants of his village was killed. Casualty rates in nearby villages were 70% to 90%.

Tsunami risk reduction strategies Tsunami risk reduction strategies Presentation Transcript

  • SCHEMATIC OF TSUNAMI WAVE (USGS)
  • ALASKA TSUNAMI SCENARIO (Source: US Geological Survey) September 4, 2013
  • The Science Applications for Risk Reduction Tsunami Scenario Stephanie Ross and Lucile Jones, Editors
  • The tsunami scenario team began work on the scenario before the magnitude-9.0 earthquake/tsunami that struck Japan in March 2011
  • SCHEMATIC OF TSUNAMI WAVE (USGS)
  • SCENARIO CONCLUSIONS • In the scenario, a tsunami generated by a massive earthquake off the coast of Alaska would leave the northern Orange County coast and Long Beach underwater. • Source: U.S. Geological Survey report, Wednesday (Sept. 4, 2013).
  • SCENARIO CONCLUSIONS • The simulated tsunami disaster follows a M9.1 earthquake in Alaska would force the evacuation of about 750,000 Californians and damage or sink one-third of the boats in California marinas.
  • COLLISION OF BOATS IN A MARINA (March, 2011)
  • SCENARIO CONCLUSIONS • The twin ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach could be shuttered for at least two days because of strong currents, potentially losing $1.2 billion in business.
  • SCENARIO CONCLUSIONS • The hypothetical simulated disaster would force the evacuation of about 750,000 Californians and damage or sink one-third of the boats in marinas statewide.
  • TIME TO GET OUT OF HARM’S WAY: Under the scenario, it would take about four hours for tsunami waves to reach communities near the Oregon state line and about six hours to reach San Diego
  • ESTIMATED ECONOMIC LOSSES: AT LEAST $8 BILLION
  • BACKGROUND
  • BOOK OF BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE KNOWLEDGE - Perspectives - Perspectives On Science, Policy, On Science, Policy, And Change And Change
  • REGIONAL DEFORMATION EARTHQUAKE TSUNAMI VIBRATION FAULT RUPTURE FOUNDATION FAILURE AMPLIFICATION LIQUEFACTION LANDSLIDE AFTERSHOCKS SEICHE DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS
  • Basic Tsunami Mechanism  An earthquake causes a vertical movement of the seafloor, which displaces the sea water.  Large waves then radiate from the epicenter in all directions.
  • TSUNAMIS • OCCUR IN PACIFIC “RING OF FIRE,” INDIAN OCEAN, CARIBBEAN, AND MEDITERRANEAN
  • TSUNAMIS • GENERATE WAVES THAT CAN AFFECT DISTANT SHORELINES THOUSANDS OF MILES FROM THE SOURCE
  • TSUNAMI WAVE APPEARANCE • A tsunami wave crest has three general appearances from shore: – Fast-rising tide – Cresting wave – A step-like change in the water level that advances rapidly (called a bore) • Series of waves – Most tsunamis come in a series of waves that may last several hours – The outflow of water back to the sea between waves can cause more damage than the incoming wave fronts – The first wave is rarely the largest A bore on the Qian Tang Jiang River, China Source: www.waveofdestruction.org
  • PERSPECTIVES ON WHAT CAN BE DONE TO BECOME TSUANMI DISASTER RESILIENT Coastal planners are having meetings this week around the state to digest the scenario information and review their evacuation plans.
  • Tsunami Risk Reduction The least expensive and the most important mitigation effort is … "Even without a warning system, even in places where they didn't feel the earthquake, if people had simply understood that when you see the water go down, when you hear a rumble from the coast, you don't go down to investigate, you grab your babies and run for your life, many lives would have been saved." Lori Dengler, Humboldt State University New Scientist MagazineNew Scientist Magazine January 15, 2005January 15, 2005
  • LOSS REDUCTION MEASURES • TSUNAMI WARNING/ SYSTEM • DISASTER SCENARIOS • EVACUATIONS
  • The power of knowledge: • Victor Desosa saved the village of Galbokka in Sri Lanka in 1994 because he knew what to do when the water receded. • Only one inhabitant in his village was killed. • Casualty rates in nearby villages were 70 – 90 %
  • LOSS REDUCTION MEASURES • PROTECTION (BUILD INFRA- STRUCTURE TO WITHSTAND) • LAND-USE CONTROL (COMMUNITY PLANS)