THE GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORY MODEL: AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

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A major earthquake affecting a large city has the potential to be the most catastrophic natural disaster. Earthquakes of sufficient size threaten lives and damage property by setting off a chain of effects that disrupts the natural and human-built environments. Widespread strong ground shaking is a geological effect that can severely damage buildings or cause them to collapse completely. Vibratory earthquake motion, in turn, can induce secondary geological effects such as soil liquefaction, landslides, and related ground failure hazardous to the built environment or can trigger seismic sea waves (tsunamis) that may wreak coastal destruction thousands of miles from the earthquake source. Earthquakes may also result in major nongeological effects (e.g., widespread fires, flooding of populated areas caused by failure of large dams, or release of radioactive materials from damaged nuclear power plants) that could be more catastrophic than the initial effects of the earthquake. Presentation courtesy of Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

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THE GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORY MODEL: AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

  1. 1. THE GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORY MODEL: AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE
  2. 2. FRAMEWORK FOR A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER- DISCIPLINARY DIALOGUE ON GLOBAL DISASTERS AND DISASTER RESILIENCE
  3. 3. 1. SCOPE FROM VULNERABLE CONTINUUMS TO A DISASTER TO DISASTER RESILIENT COMMUNITIES THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION OF “THE BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES” OF DISASTER RESILIENCE
  4. 4. A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that occur when the continuums of: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods, earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the people and community are not ready.
  5. 5. THREE DYNAMIC CONTINUUMS 1. PEOPLE (7+ Billion and counting) 2. COMMUNITIES 3. RECURRING EVENTS (AKA Natural Hazards, which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)
  6. 6. PEOPLE = INNOVATION 200 NATIONS AND 7+ BILLION PEOPLE NORTH AMERICA CARIBBEAN BASIN SUB-SAHARA AFRICA MEDITER- RANEAN ISLAND NATIONS ASIA SOUTH AMERICA EUROPE
  7. 7. INTERSECTION OF THESE CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL CAUSE A DISASTER, AND SOME WON’T
  8. 8. THE PEOPLE CONTINUUM • 7 + BILLION (DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT THE WORLD)
  9. 9. LIKE AN INFINITE SERIES: A CONTINUUM OF INNOVATION NEVER ENDS
  10. 10. LIKE A CHAIN: A CONTINUUM HAS WEAK LINKS TO IMPROVE
  11. 11. FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS 1. IGNORANCE 2. APATHY 3. DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES 4. LACK OF POLITICAL WILL
  12. 12. THE COMMUNITY CONTINUUM: (SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE) • GOVERNMENT • DWELLINGS • SCHOOLS • HEALTH CARE FACILITIES • BUSINESSES • INFRA- STRUCTURE • ETC.
  13. 13. EACH COMMUNITY MUST BE READY FOR THE INEVITABLE INTERSECTION THAT WILL CHALLENGE ITS STATE-OF-RESILIENCE
  14. 14. THE RECURRING - EVENTS CONTINUUM • FLOODS • SEVERE WINDSTORMS • EARTHQUAKES • DROUGHTS • VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS • ETC.
  15. 15. RECURRING EARTHQUAKES
  16. 16. RECURRING TROPICAL STORMS TYPHOONS, HURRICANES, AND CYCLONES
  17. 17. RECURRING FLOODS
  18. 18. RECURRING DROUGHT EPISODES
  19. 19. RECURRING VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
  20. 20. CURRENT KNOWLEDGE IS DEFINED BY ANECTDOTAL, EMPIRICAL, LINEAR, NON-LINEAR, STATISTICAL, FUZZY, PROBABILISTIC, . . . AND THEORETICAL MODELS HAVING DIVIDES, GAPS, AND UNCERTAINTIES
  21. 21. FRAMEWORK 2: A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER- DISCIPLINARY INTEGRATION OF KNOWLEDGE FOR THE END GAME OF DISASTER RESILIENCE IN THE 21ST CENTURY
  22. 22. POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE • Anticipatory Preparedness • Adoption and Implementation of a Modern Engineering Building Codes & Standards • Timely Early Warning and Evacuation • Timely Emergency Response (including Emergency Medical Services) • Cost-Effective Recovery/Reconstruction
  23. 23. YOUR COMMUNITYDATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS •FLOODS •SEVERE WIND STORMS •EARTHQUAKES …ETC A DISASTER CAUSES FAILURES IN POLICIES FAILURES IN PRACTICES COUNTER MEASURES • BEST POLICIES •BEST PRACTICES DISASTER RESILIENCE
  24. 24. EARTHQUAKES
  25. 25. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE • MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING; STRAIN) • INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS) • RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING) • DATABASES • DISASTER SCENARIOS • ZONATION OF POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL FOR POLICY DECISIONS
  26. 26. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE • AUTOMATED CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMEMT • PREFABRICATION AND MODULARIZATION • ADVANCED MATERIALS (E.G., COMPOSITES) • COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN • PERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDS • ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E.G., BASE ISOLATION) • REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS
  27. 27. INNOVATIVE PREPAREDNESS USE GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE DISASTER LABORATORIES AS A BASIS FOR PREPARING FROM “A” (Emergency Response) TO “Z” (Recovery and Reconstruction)
  28. 28. EMERGENCY RESPONSE: (BASED ON 1989 LOMA PRIETA, CA EARTHQUAKE • M7.1 • 63 DEAD • COLLAPSE AND LOSS OF FUNCTION OF KEY TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE • $ 1 BILLION INSURED LOSS
  29. 29. EMERGENCY RESPONSE: (BASED ON 1972 MANAGUA, NICARAGUA EARTHQUAKE) • 10,000 DEAD • 20,000 INJURED • 300,000 HOMELESS • NEAR TOTAL DISRUPTION OF THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION • LOSS OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE • POLITICAL CHAOS
  30. 30. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING
  31. 31. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (MEXICO)
  32. 32. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (EGYPT)
  33. 33. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (ALGERIA)
  34. 34. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (TURKEY)
  35. 35. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (IRAN)
  36. 36. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (INDIA)
  37. 37. PROTECTION USE FORECASTS OF STRONG GROUND MOTION TO ENACT CODES AND FIX PHYSICAL VULNERABILITIES IN THE COMMUNITY
  38. 38. PROTECTION BASED ON RESEARCH FROM THE JANUARY 2010 HAITI EARTHQUAKE • SEISMIC BUILDING CODES PREVENT BUILDING COLLAPSE.
  39. 39. PROTECTION (BASED ON JULY 2013 YA’AN CHINA EARTHQUAKE) • SEISMIC BUILDING CODES PREVENT BUILDING COLLAPSE.
  40. 40. PROTECTION BASED ON 1995 KOBE JAPAN EARTHQUAKE • SEISMIC STANDARDS PREVENT LOSS OF FUNCTION OF CRITICAL LIFELINE SYSTEMS.
  41. 41. PROTECTION • URBAN PLANNING FACILITATES AVOIDANCE OF HAZARDOUS LOCATIONS SUCH AS FAULT ZONES FOR CONSTRUCT- ION SITES
  42. 42. PROTECTION (SITE MODIFICATION Based on 1964 Niigata Earthquake) • ENGINEERING TECHNIQUES (SOIL REMED- IATION) CAN PREVENT/REDUCE LOSSES FROM LIQUEFACTION
  43. 43. EMERGENCY RESPONSE (BASED ON 1989 LOMA PRIETA, CA EARTHQUAKE) • Magnitude 7.1 • 63 DEAD • FIRE IN MARINA DISTRICT • WIDE SPREAD LOSS OF POWER • 1 BILLION INSURED LOSS
  44. 44. EMERGENCY RESPONSE (BASED ON 1995 KOBE EARTHQUAKE) • SEARCH AND RESCUE AFTER THE 5:46 AM EARTHQUAKE HELPED SAVE 3,000 ADULTS AGE 60 OR OLDER TRAPPED IN HOUSES.
  45. 45. SEARCH AND RESCUE (BASED ON 1988 SPITAK, ARMENIA EARTHQUAKE) • INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE FROM MORE THAN 50 CONTRIES FACILITATED SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS
  46. 46. EMERGENCY RESPONSE: (BASED ON 1971 SAN FERNANDO, CA EARTHQUAKE) • LOWERING THE WATER LEVEL IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE PREVENTED FLOODING OF LOS ANGELES.
  47. 47. EMERGENCY RESPONSE (BASED ON 1999 KOCALEI, TURKEY EARTHQUAKE) • MASS CARE PROVIDED A SAFETY NET FOR THE HOMELESS DURING THE EMERGENCY RESPONSE AND EARLY RECOVERY PERIODS.
  48. 48. EMERGENCY RESPONSE (BASED ON 1999 KOCAELI, TURKEY, EARTHQUAKE) • A “TENT CITY” PROVIDED TEMPORARY SHELTER FOR THE HOMELESS DURING THE EMERGENCY RESPONSE EARLY RECOVERY PERIOD
  49. 49. RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: (BASED ON MAY 12, 2008 CHINA EARTHQUAKE) • 88,000 DEAD • 30,000 INJURED • 300,000 HOMELESS • 25 MILLION BUILDINGS DAMAGED • 45 MILLION PEOPLE AFFECTED
  50. 50. EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE IS A TOOL FOR RECOVERY • EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE SPREADS THE RISK AND SPEEDS RECOVERY (I.E., “RESTORATION TO NORMAL”)
  51. 51. INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE SPEEDS RECOVERY (2010 HAITI EARTHQUAKE) • OVER $ 1 BILLION DOLLARS WAS DONATED IN A FEW WEEKS TO HELP HAITIANS SPEED RESTORATION OF SERVICES TO NORMAL.
  52. 52. RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: (BASED ON MAY 12, 2008 CHINA EARTHQUAKE) • SCHOOLS ARE “SAFE HAVENS” SO ANY NEEDING TO BE REBUILT MUST BE REBUILT TO A HIGHER STANDARD DURING THE RECONSTRUCTION PERIOD.
  53. 53. RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: (BASED ON MAY 12, 2008 CHINA EARTHQUAKE) • SCHOOLS ARE “SAFE HAVENS” SO ANY NEEDING TO BE REBUILT MUST BE REBUILT TO A HIGHER STANDARD DURING THE RECONSTRUCTION PERIOD.
  54. 54. THE END GAME CHALLENGE BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES INNOVATIVE ACTIONS: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE PARA-DIGM SHIFTS THAT ARE NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE
  55. 55. BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL IDENTIFY/CLOSE KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS, AND IDENTIFY/FIX WEAK LINKS IN THE PEOPLE/COMMUNITY CONTINUUMS
  56. 56. BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL CALL FOR INNOVATIVE USE OF TECHNOLOGY AND STRATEGIC PLANNING
  57. 57. THE STATE-OF-RESILIENCE WILL INCREASE EXPONENTIALLY AS --- a) The CAPACITY of the PEOPLE is increased, b) Physical and organizational VULNERABILITIES in the COMMUNITY are eliminated, and c) Each people-community-hazard INTERSECTION is met successfully.

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