Southern California may be due soon -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes
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Southern California may be due soon -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

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Earthqakes are dynamic laboratories for learning and catalysts for building capacity for disaster-intelligent & disaster-resilient communites. Presentation courtesy of Dr Walter Hays, Global......

Earthqakes are dynamic laboratories for learning and catalysts for building capacity for disaster-intelligent & disaster-resilient communites. Presentation courtesy of Dr Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction

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  • 1. THE LOS ANGELES BASIN IS ATHIGH RISK FROM EARTHQUAKES
  • 2. LESSONS FROM PASTNOTABLE EARTHQUAKES
  • 3. PAST NOTABLE EARTHQUAKES NORTHRIDGE, CALIFORNIA JANUARY 17, 1994 GOOD FORTUNE--- ITHAPPENED ON A HOLIDAY
  • 4. EARTHQAKES ARE DYNAMIC LABORATORIES FOR LEARNING AND CATALYSTS FOR BUILDING CAPACITYFOR DISASTER-INTELLIGENT & DISASTER-RESILIENT COMMUNITES
  • 5. NORTHRIDGE, CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE 4:31 AM ON JANUARY 17, 1994 4:31 AM ON JANUARY 17, 1994 M 6.8 M 6.8 57 DEATHS 57 DEATHS $50 BILLION LOSS $50 BILLION LOSSTRANSPORTATION AND UTILITY INFRASTRUCTURETRANSPORTATION AND UTILITY INFRASTRUCTURE FAILURES FAILURES
  • 6. OCCURRENCE
  • 7. LOS ANGELES Los Angeles is located in the LosAngeles Basin where earthquakeshave occurred many times on thewell known San Andreas faultsystem and SOMETIMES onunknown “blind thrust faults.”
  • 8. LOCATION The epicenter was located in Northridge, a suburb of Los Angeles.
  • 9.  Southern California is prone toearthquakes because of its locationnear the boundary between two majortectonic plates: North America andPacific. Much, but not all, of the stressrelease happens on the San Andreasfault.
  • 10. NORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKE  SLIP ON A “BLIND” THRUST FAULT (I.E., DID NOT BREAK THE SURFACE) GEN- ERATED AN ALMOST PERFECT “BULLS EYE” EARTHQUAKE IN A MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREA
  • 11. FAULT SYSTEM:NORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKE
  • 12. CAUSES OF DAMAGE CAUSES OF DAMAGE INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE) IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATIONEARTHQUAKES AND PLAN EARTHQUAKES “DISASTER FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF “DISASTER LABORATORIES” LABORATORIES” UTILITIES LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS INATTENTION TO NON- STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
  • 13. IMPACTSBUILDINGS
  • 14. LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE  ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKES  PREPAREDNESS PLANNING FOR THE INEVITABLE STRONG GROUND MOTION IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.
  • 15. GROUND SHAKING WESTERNUSA
  • 16. LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE  ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKES  PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.
  • 17. LOS ANGELES REGION Buildings, transportation infrastructure, utility corridors, and parking structures constructed in accordance with various codes/standards FAILED.
  • 18. COLLAPSE OF A CONCRETE FRAME BUILDING
  • 19. NORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKE  THE BUILDING STOCK AND INFRA- STRUCTURE OF THE LOS ANGELES REGION WERE EXPOSED TO VERY STRONG GROUND SHAKING REACHING PGA > 1 G AT SOME LOCATIONS
  • 20. A PROTECTION NIGHTMARE
  • 21. DAMAGE TO BRIDGE
  • 22. THE UTILITY CORRIDOR: APROTECTION NIGHTMARE  DISRUPTION OF UTILITY SERVICES, A FIRE, AND AN EXPLOSION QUICKLY CREATED THE CONDITIONS FOR A DISASTER .
  • 23. NORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKE  FLAWS WERE FOUND IN THE WELDED CONNECTIONS OF MANY MOMENT- RESISTING STEEL FRAME BUILDINGS
  • 24. PROBABILISTIC MAPS OF PEAKGROUND ACCELERATION (PGA)AND SPECTRAL ACCELERATION(SA) ARE BASIC TOOLS USED IN BUILDING CODES ANDINFRASTRUCTURE STANDARDS
  • 25. LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE  ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKES  PREPAREDNESS PLANNING FOR THE INEVITABLE GROUND FAILURE IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.
  • 26. LIQUEFACTION IN A UTILITY CORRIDOR 
  • 27. COLLAPSE OF UNIVERSITY PARKING STRUCTURE
  • 28. LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE  ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKES  CAPACITY FOR EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.
  • 29. DEALING WITH FIRE, AN EXPLOSION, DEATHS, AND LOSS OF FUNCTION
  • 30. LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE  ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKES  CAPACITY FOR RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.
  • 31. EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE WAS A TOOL FOR RECOVERY  EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE SPREAD THE RISK AND SPEEDED UP RECOVERY BY FACILITATING THE “RESTORATION TO NORMAL”
  • 32. IT TAKES TIME TO CORRECTFLAWS IN STEEL BUILDINGS 
  • 33. IT TAKES TIME TO RESTOREREGIONAL TRANSPORTATION
  • 34. PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE A NEW GENERATION OF POLICIES AND PROFESSIONAL PRACTICES WAS DEVELOPED FOR SITING, DESIGN, AND CONSTRUCTION IN CALIFORNIA AND OTHER EARTHQUAKE PRONE REGIONS OF THE USA.
  • 35. PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE THE INFORMATION, KNOWLEDGE BASE AND PROCESS NEEDED FOR DEVELOPING SCENARIOS FOR FUTURE EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING WERE CREATED.
  • 36. SCENARIO EARTHQUAKE FORSOUTHERN CALIFORNIAADVANCE PLANNING SO THATCALIFORNIA WILL BE READY WHEN THEINEVITABLE “BIG ONE” AND OTHERSRECURSource: US Geological Survey
  • 37. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIAAREA
  • 38. QUAKE SHAKEOUTSCENARIOThe goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is toidentify the physical, social andeconomic consequences of a majorearthquake in southern California , andin so doing, enable end users toidentify what they can change now—before the earthquake—to avoidcatastrophic impact after the inevitableearthquake occurs.
  • 39. GROUND SHAKING: 60 % GSECONDS AFTER FAULTRUPTURE
  • 40. THE M 7.8 SCENARIO QUAKE• The magnitude 7.8 SCENARIOearthquake will cause about 1800deaths and $213 billion of economiclosses.• These numbers are as low as they arebecause of aggressive retrofittingprograms since 1994 that haveincreased the seismic resistance ofbuildings, highways and lifelines, andadded economic resiliency.
  • 41. THE M 7.8 SHAKEOUTQUAKE• The estimates of about 1800deaths and $213 billion ofeconomic losses are as largeas they are because muchmore retrofitting could still bedone.
  • 42. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS 57 DEATHS 9,000 INJURIES HUNDREDS OF APARTMENT BUILDINGS DAMAGED THOUSANDS OF COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS DAMAGED WHEN WELDS FAILED IN STEEL-FRAME BUILDINGS PARKING FACILITIES COLLAPSED
  • 43. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS A RELATIVELY SMALL NUMBER OF DEATHS, PARTLY DUE TO HOLIDAY OVER $50 BILLION DAMAGE WITH MORE THAN $5 BILLION IN EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE INDEMNIFICATION UTILITY CORRIDOR FAILED TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS FAILED AGAIN
  • 44. PRIMARY SOURCES OF INFORMATION ON THE LOMAPRIETA EARTHQUAKE ARE: 1) The US Geological Survey, 2) The California Geological Survey,and 3) the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute