SNOW IN AMMAN, JORDAN:
JANUARY; 2008
MAKING (OR NOT MAKING) OUR
WORLD DISASTER RESILIENT
IS OUR LEGACY
History Will Decide Which Legacy We
Actually Leave
Part 1
PART 1:
WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT
GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE?
DISASTER RESILIENCE HAS A
VERY HIGH BENEFIT/COST
1 < BENEFIT/COST <
1000
THE PAYOFF IS
GREATER SAFETY,
SECURITY, AND
QUALI...
BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE
UNIQUE TOOLS FOR
MEDITERRANEAN REGION NATIONS
TO USE TO IMPROVE EDUCATION,
MITIGATION, MONITORING, AND
...
BOOK
OF
BOOK
OF
KNOWLEDGE
KNOWLEDGE
- Perspectives
- Perspectives
On Science, Policy,
On Science, Policy,
And EM
HI-ED
And...
MEDITERRANEAN REGION
• MEDITERRANEAN REGION
• EUROPE
• NORTH AMERICA
• SOUTH AMERICA
• CARIBBEAN BASIN
• OCEANIA
• ASIA
 RUSSIA
 INDIA
 CHINA
 SOUTHEAST ASIA
• GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
• DROUGHTS
• EARTHQUAKES
• FLOODS
• SEVERE WINDSTORMS
• WILDFIRES
• LANDSLIDES
• VOLCANIC ERUPTION...
GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE
GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE
DROUGHTDROUGHT
WILDFIRESWILDFIRES
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
LANDSL...
THE DILEMNA OF
DISASTER SCENARIOS
FOR GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE OCCURS AT THE
LOCAL LEVEL
WHERE, BROAD BRUSH
STROKES ARE TOO
U...
THE ISSUE:
WERE THE UNUSUALLY SEVERE
PHYSICAL EFFECTS NORMAL, BUT
EXACERBATED BY SOME OF MAN’S
PAST ACTIONS, OR
EVIDENCE O...
WAS THE WINTER OF 2008
UNUSUAL?
VERY COLD IN CHINA
VERY COLD IN NEW YORK
SNOW IN AMMAN, JORDAN
VERY WARM IN SWEDEN
VERY WA...
SNOW IN AMMAN, JORDAN:
JANUARY; 2008
WARM IN TYNEMOUTH, UK:
FEBRUARY 2008
NO ICE IN NORWAY:
JANUARY 2008
VERY COLD IN GUANGZHOU,
CHINA: JANUARY 2008
STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN:
WARMEST SINCE 1755
VERY COLD IN NEW YORK:
FEBRUARY 2008
YOURYOUR
COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
DATA BASESDATA BASES
AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SUR...
POLICYPOLICY
ADOPTIONADOPTION
POLICYPOLICY
ADOPTIONADOPTION
RISK ASSESSMENT
• VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY
• EXPOSUREEXPOSUR...
MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION
STRATEGIES FOR COPING WITH THE
POTENTIAL ADVERSE EFFECTS OF
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
IF THE PREDICT...
ANTICIPATE YOUR RISK
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
• GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE WAS
ONLY DISCUSSED
IN A HYPO-
THETICAL WAY
FOR MANY YEARS.
• If CONSIDERED A...
MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION
• MITIGATION
ADDRESSES THE
“FRONT END” OF THE
GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE PROBLEM.
• IT INCLUDES ACTIO...
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• ADAPTATION IS REQUIRED BECAUSE
WE CAN NOT TURN OFF THE
MOMENTUM OF ADVERSE IMPACTS
OF GLOBAL CLI...
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• MANY COUNTRIES ARE NOW MAKING
LARGE INVESTMENTS IN MITIGATION AND
ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATION ACTION...
THE NETHERLANDS:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• AFTER 800 YEARS OF EXPERIENCE
BATTLING THE NORTH SEA, THE
NETHERLANDS HAS NOW C...
THE NETHERLANDS:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• THE OOESTERSCHELDEKERING, A
PART OF THE DELTA WORKS DAMS,
DEFENDS AGAINST THE N...
THE NETHERLANDS:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• THE DUTCH ARE ALSO REVISING
TRADITIONAL FLOOD MANAGEMENT
THINKING.
• IN ADDITIO...
THE OOESTERSCHELDEKERING:
THE NETHERLANDS
THE NETHERLANDS:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• THE NETHERLANDS WILL COMMIT
ABOUT $1.3 BILLION ANNUALLY TO
INCREASE FLOOD PROTE...
BRITAIN:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• THE BRITISH ARE IMPROVING AND
EXTENDING THE “THAMES BARRIER,” A
SET OF FLOODGATES ACROS...
LONDON, ENGLAND
THAMES RIVER BARRIER
DURING STORM
BRITAIN:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• THE PREDICTED RISE IN SEA LEVEL
BY 2030 IS EXPECTED TO REQUIRE
AN INCREASE IN PROTECTIO...
TOKYO: ANTICIPATES MORE WATER
THAN USUAL IN THE FUTURE
JAPAN:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• JAPAN IS ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE
WATER FROM RISING SEA LEVEL, OCEAN
STORM SURGES, TSUNAMI ...
G-CANS: THE WORLD’S LARGEST
UNDERGROUND “RIVER” SYSTEM
JAPAN:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• JAPAN HAS INSTALLED
UNDERGROUND PUMPS THAT CAN
PUMP 100 TONS OF WATER PER
SECOND OUT OF R...
BANGLADESH:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• BANGLADESH, ONE OF THE MOST
VULNERABLE PLACES ON EARTH TO
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, NOW...
BANGLADESH:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• BUT, BEING ONE OF THE POOREST
COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD, BANGLADESH
CAN NOT AFFORD THE ...
GREATER NEW ORLEANS, LA:
ONLY 300,000 AFTER KATRINA
NEW ORLEANS: ANTICIPATES HURRICANES
EVEN WORSE THAN KATRINA
UNITED STATES:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• ADAPTATION IS NOW ON THE
AMERICAN AGENDA BECAUSE OF
HURRICANE KATRINA AND ITS
IMP...
NEW ORLEANS:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
NEW ORLEANS’ LEVEE SYSTEM
UNITED STATES:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• NEW ORLEANS’ LEVEE SYSTEM ONLY
PROVIDES 1-IN-100 YEARS
PROTECTION NOW.
• 122 LEVE...
UNITED STATES:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• “DEFENSE IN DEPTH,” A THREE-
LAYERED SYSTEM, HAS BEEN
DEVISED TO PROTECT NEW
ORLE...
UNITED STATES:
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• “DEFENSE IN DEPTH:
• THE INNER LAYER CONSISTS OF
HARDENED LEVEES AND FLOOD
WALLS....
HARDENED LEVEE SYSTEM:
BOOK
OF
BOOK
OF
KNOWLEDGE
KNOWLEDGE
- Perspectives
- Perspectives
On Science, Policy,
On Science, Policy,
And EM
HI-ED
And...
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Our legacy and global climate change: Part I

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Mitigation and adaptation strategies for coping with the potential adverse effects of global climate change. If the predictions are right, we will be living with the effects of global climate change for the rest of our lives. Presentation courtesy of Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction.

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Our legacy and global climate change: Part I

  1. 1. SNOW IN AMMAN, JORDAN: JANUARY; 2008
  2. 2. MAKING (OR NOT MAKING) OUR WORLD DISASTER RESILIENT IS OUR LEGACY History Will Decide Which Legacy We Actually Leave Part 1
  3. 3. PART 1: WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE?
  4. 4. DISASTER RESILIENCE HAS A VERY HIGH BENEFIT/COST 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1000 THE PAYOFF IS GREATER SAFETY, SECURITY, AND QUALITY OF LIFE FOR EVRYONE
  5. 5. BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE UNIQUE TOOLS FOR MEDITERRANEAN REGION NATIONS TO USE TO IMPROVE EDUCATION, MITIGATION, MONITORING, AND ADAPTATION FOR GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS
  6. 6. BOOK OF BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE KNOWLEDGE - Perspectives - Perspectives On Science, Policy, On Science, Policy, And EM HI-ED And EM HI-ED
  7. 7. MEDITERRANEAN REGION
  8. 8. • MEDITERRANEAN REGION • EUROPE • NORTH AMERICA • SOUTH AMERICA • CARIBBEAN BASIN • OCEANIA
  9. 9. • ASIA  RUSSIA  INDIA  CHINA  SOUTHEAST ASIA
  10. 10. • GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE • DROUGHTS • EARTHQUAKES • FLOODS • SEVERE WINDSTORMS • WILDFIRES • LANDSLIDES • VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS • TSUNAMIS
  11. 11. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE DROUGHTDROUGHT WILDFIRESWILDFIRES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES TSUNAMISTSUNAMIS LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES HURRICANES/ TYPHOONS HURRICANES/ TYPHOONS FLOODSFLOODS GCC AND NATURAL HAZARDSGCC AND NATURAL HAZARDS ATMOSPHERICATMOSPHERICATMOSPHERICATMOSPHERIC GEOLOGICGEOLOGICGEOLOGICGEOLOGIC HYDROLOGICHYDROLOGICHYDROLOGICHYDROLOGIC
  12. 12. THE DILEMNA OF DISASTER SCENARIOS FOR GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE OCCURS AT THE LOCAL LEVEL WHERE, BROAD BRUSH STROKES ARE TOO UNCERTAIN
  13. 13. THE ISSUE: WERE THE UNUSUALLY SEVERE PHYSICAL EFFECTS NORMAL, BUT EXACERBATED BY SOME OF MAN’S PAST ACTIONS, OR EVIDENCE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE?
  14. 14. WAS THE WINTER OF 2008 UNUSUAL? VERY COLD IN CHINA VERY COLD IN NEW YORK SNOW IN AMMAN, JORDAN VERY WARM IN SWEDEN VERY WARM IN NORWAY VERY WARM IN ENGLAND
  15. 15. SNOW IN AMMAN, JORDAN: JANUARY; 2008
  16. 16. WARM IN TYNEMOUTH, UK: FEBRUARY 2008
  17. 17. NO ICE IN NORWAY: JANUARY 2008
  18. 18. VERY COLD IN GUANGZHOU, CHINA: JANUARY 2008
  19. 19. STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN: WARMEST SINCE 1755
  20. 20. VERY COLD IN NEW YORK: FEBRUARY 2008
  21. 21. YOURYOUR COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY DATA BASESDATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS •MONITORING •HAZARD MAPS •INVENTORY •VULNERABILITY •LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK BOOKS OFBOOKS OF KNOWLEDGEKNOWLEDGE •EDUCATION •PREPAREDNESS •PROTECTION •EARLY WARNING •EM RESPONSE •RECOVERY POLICY TOOLS FORPOLICY TOOLS FOR DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE
  22. 22. POLICYPOLICY ADOPTIONADOPTION POLICYPOLICY ADOPTIONADOPTION RISK ASSESSMENT • VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY • EXPOSUREEXPOSURE • EVENTEVENT POLICY ASSESSMENT • COSTCOST • BENEFITBENEFIT •CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES BUILDING A CULTURE OFBUILDING A CULTURE OF DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE GLOBALGLOBAL CLIMATECLIMATE CHANGECHANGE NATURALNATURAL HAZARDSHAZARDS GLOBALGLOBAL CLIMATECLIMATE CHANGECHANGE NATURALNATURAL HAZARDSHAZARDS EXPECTEDEXPECTED LOSSLOSS EXPECTEDEXPECTED LOSSLOSS
  23. 23. MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR COPING WITH THE POTENTIAL ADVERSE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE IF THE PREDICTIONS ARE RIGHT, WE WILL BE LIVING WITH THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE REST OF OUR LIVES
  24. 24. ANTICIPATE YOUR RISK
  25. 25. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE • GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE WAS ONLY DISCUSSED IN A HYPO- THETICAL WAY FOR MANY YEARS. • If CONSIDERED AS A THREAT, IT WAS A THREAT FOR THE DISTANT FUTURE. • GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE IS INCREASINGLY BEING REGARDED AS A FACT, … • WHICH IMPLIES SERIOUS RISKS THAT PRESENT AND FUTURE GEN- ERATIONS ALIKE WILL HAVE TO FACE.
  26. 26. MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION • MITIGATION ADDRESSES THE “FRONT END” OF THE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE PROBLEM. • IT INCLUDES ACTIONS THAT WILL PREVENT (OR REDUCE) THE RELEASE OF EXCESS CO2 EMMISIONS. • ADAPTATION ADDRESSES THE “BACK END” OF THE PROBLEM. • IT INCLUDES ACTIONS THAT WILL SAFE- GUARD A PERSON, A COMMUNITY, A BUSINESS, OR A NATION AS THEY LIVE WITH THE LIKELY IMPACTS.
  27. 27. MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • ADAPTATION IS REQUIRED BECAUSE WE CAN NOT TURN OFF THE MOMENTUM OF ADVERSE IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE IN A SHORT TIME. • CARBON DIOXIDE REMAINS IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR DECADES, AND • OCEANS STORE HEAT FOR CENTURIES.
  28. 28. MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • MANY COUNTRIES ARE NOW MAKING LARGE INVESTMENTS IN MITIGATION AND ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATION ACTIONS. • LEADERS RECOGNIIZE THAT THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE RISKS FOR PEOPLE, BUSINESSES, AND COMMUNITIES LIVING IN OR LOCATED IN COASTAL AREAS OR IN RIVER FLOODPLAINS.
  29. 29. THE NETHERLANDS: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • AFTER 800 YEARS OF EXPERIENCE BATTLING THE NORTH SEA, THE NETHERLANDS HAS NOW CREATED SOME OF THE STRONGEST FLOOD DEFENSES IN THE WORLD. • PRESENT RIVER DEFENSES PROVIDE 1-IN -250 YEARS PROTECTION LEVELS.
  30. 30. THE NETHERLANDS: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • THE OOESTERSCHELDEKERING, A PART OF THE DELTA WORKS DAMS, DEFENDS AGAINST THE NORTH SEA. • THEY ARE NOW BEING MADE STRONGER TO PROVIDE 1-IN-100,000 YEARS PROTECTION INSTEAD OF 1-IN-10,000 YEARS PROTECTION.
  31. 31. THE NETHERLANDS: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • THE DUTCH ARE ALSO REVISING TRADITIONAL FLOOD MANAGEMENT THINKING. • IN ADDITION TO CONTAINING THE FLOOD WATERS, THEY WILL ALLOW CERTAIN DESIGNAGTED LOCATIONS TO BE FLOODED. • THIS STRATEGY IS CALLED, “LIVING WITH WATER.”
  32. 32. THE OOESTERSCHELDEKERING: THE NETHERLANDS
  33. 33. THE NETHERLANDS: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • THE NETHERLANDS WILL COMMIT ABOUT $1.3 BILLION ANNUALLY TO INCREASE FLOOD PROTECTION LEVELS. • THIS INVESTMENT IS EQUAL TO ABOUT 0.2 PERCENT OF THE NETHERLAND’S GDP.
  34. 34. BRITAIN: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • THE BRITISH ARE IMPROVING AND EXTENDING THE “THAMES BARRIER,” A SET OF FLOODGATES ACROSS THE THAMES RIVER. • WHEN THE BARRIER IS CLOSED (ABOUT 10 TIMES A YEAR) IT PROVIDES 1-IN-2,000 YEARS PROTECTION OF LONDON FROM FLOODING CAUSED BY OCEAN SURGES DURING STORMS.
  35. 35. LONDON, ENGLAND
  36. 36. THAMES RIVER BARRIER DURING STORM
  37. 37. BRITAIN: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • THE PREDICTED RISE IN SEA LEVEL BY 2030 IS EXPECTED TO REQUIRE AN INCREASE IN PROTECTION ALONG THE THAMES TO 1-IN-1,000 YEARS. • THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED AND UPGRADED BY 2100.
  38. 38. TOKYO: ANTICIPATES MORE WATER THAN USUAL IN THE FUTURE
  39. 39. JAPAN: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • JAPAN IS ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE WATER FROM RISING SEA LEVEL, OCEAN STORM SURGES, TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP, AND EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION FROM TYPHOONS. • ITS 12-YEAR-OLD “G-CANS PROJECT” HAS CREATED A MASSIVE UNDERGROUND CONCRETE “RIVER SYSTEM” IN NORTHWEST TOKYO TO FACILITATE REMOVAL OF EXCESS WATER FROM TOKYO’S STREETS.
  40. 40. G-CANS: THE WORLD’S LARGEST UNDERGROUND “RIVER” SYSTEM
  41. 41. JAPAN: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • JAPAN HAS INSTALLED UNDERGROUND PUMPS THAT CAN PUMP 100 TONS OF WATER PER SECOND OUT OF RIVERS AND INTO THE HARBOR TO PREVENT FLOODING OF CTY STREETS. • THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY CONSIDERED TO BE OPERATING AT FULL CAPACITY NOW.
  42. 42. BANGLADESH: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • BANGLADESH, ONE OF THE MOST VULNERABLE PLACES ON EARTH TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, NOW REQUIRES USE OF CLIMATE CHANGE MODELS IN ALL FUTURE PLANNING AND DECISIONS. • IT HAS BEGUN SWITCHING LAND USE FROM RICE FARMING TO PRAWN FARMING IN LOCATIONS WHRE SALT WATER IN THE BAY OF BENGAL IS NOW MOVING INLAND.
  43. 43. BANGLADESH: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • BUT, BEING ONE OF THE POOREST COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD, BANGLADESH CAN NOT AFFORD THE INVESTMENTS REQUIRED FOR ADAPTATION MEASURES NOW UNDERWAY IN MANY INDUSTRALIZED COUNTRIES. • IT NEEDS INTERNATIONAL AID, WHICH IS NOT NOW AS AVAILABLE AS IN THE PAST.
  44. 44. GREATER NEW ORLEANS, LA: ONLY 300,000 AFTER KATRINA
  45. 45. NEW ORLEANS: ANTICIPATES HURRICANES EVEN WORSE THAN KATRINA
  46. 46. UNITED STATES: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • ADAPTATION IS NOW ON THE AMERICAN AGENDA BECAUSE OF HURRICANE KATRINA AND ITS IMPACT ON NEW ORLEANS AND THE GULF COAST. • NEW ORLEANS HAS BECOME A LABORATORY FOR SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, HAZARD INSURANCE, AND PUBLIC POLICY.
  47. 47. NEW ORLEANS: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
  48. 48. NEW ORLEANS’ LEVEE SYSTEM
  49. 49. UNITED STATES: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • NEW ORLEANS’ LEVEE SYSTEM ONLY PROVIDES 1-IN-100 YEARS PROTECTION NOW. • 122 LEVEES IN THE SYSTEM ARE NOW CONSIDERED TO BE INADEQUATE FOR THE INCREASED SEVERITY OF WIND FIELDS AND STORM SURGES EXPECTED IN FUTURE HURRICANES.
  50. 50. UNITED STATES: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • “DEFENSE IN DEPTH,” A THREE- LAYERED SYSTEM, HAS BEEN DEVISED TO PROTECT NEW ORLEANS. • EACH LAYER ACTS LIKE A SPEED BUMP TO ABSORB AND REDUCE THE ENERGY AND DESTRUCTIVE EFFECTS OF THE SEVERE WINDSTORM.
  51. 51. UNITED STATES: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • “DEFENSE IN DEPTH: • THE INNER LAYER CONSISTS OF HARDENED LEVEES AND FLOOD WALLS. • THE MIDDLE LAYER IS A LARGE EXPANSE OF WETLANDS. • THE THIRD LAYER IS THE BARRIER ISLANDS THAT MUST BE TRAVERSED BEFORE LANDFALL.
  52. 52. HARDENED LEVEE SYSTEM:
  53. 53. BOOK OF BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE KNOWLEDGE - Perspectives - Perspectives On Science, Policy, On Science, Policy, And EM HI-ED And EM HI-ED
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