The 2012 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Suddenly Became Active With 4 Additional Hurricanes Second Half September 5 – November 30, 2012

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The 2012 season is lagging behind past seasons: By Sept. 5, 2005, we had three major hurricanes (Dennis, Emily, and Katrina),and by Sept. 5, 2011, we had one major hurricane (Katia). This year, we …

The 2012 season is lagging behind past seasons: By Sept. 5, 2005, we had three major hurricanes (Dennis, Emily, and Katrina),and by Sept. 5, 2011, we had one major hurricane (Katia). This year, we have one-- Michael. Powerpoint courtesy of Dr Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction

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  • 1. THE 2012 ATLANTIC BASINHURRICANE SEASON SUDDENLYBECAME ACTIVE WITH 4 ADDITIONAL HURRICANES SECOND HALF September 5 –November 30, 2012
  • 2. 2012’S STORM TRACKS (as of September 8)
  • 3. 2012 ATLANTIC BASIN STORM TRACKS AS OF OCT. 16
  • 4. NAMED STORMS IN 2012 (Continued)• ISAAC – Hurricane, August 21• JOYCE –Tropical Storm, Aug. 25• KIRK –Hurricane, Aug. 27• LESLIE –Hurricane, Sept. 3• MICHAEL – Hurricane, Sept. 4• NADINE – Tropical Storm, Sept. 12
  • 5. NAMED STORMS IN 2012• OSCAR – Tropical Storm, Oct. 4• PATTY – Tropical Storm, Oct. 11• RAFAEL – Hurricane, Oct. 12• SANDY – Tropical Storm, Oct. 22• TONY• VALERIE• WILLIAM
  • 6. The 2012 season is lagging behind past seasons:By Sept. 5, 2005, we had three major hurricanes (Dennis, Emily, and Katrina),and by Sept. 5, 2011, we had one major hurricane (Katia). This year, we have one-- Michael.
  • 7. ISAAC: FROM TS ON AUG, 21 TO HURRICANE ON AUG. 26
  • 8. ISAAC DID NOT RETURN IN THE GULF AS TS NADINE: SEPT 12
  • 9. LESLIE: FROM A TS ON SEPT3 TO HURRICANE ON SEPT 5
  • 10. SEPT 8: CAT 1 HURRICANE LESLIE IS HEADED SLOWLY NORTHWARDTOWARDS BERMUDA AND CANADA
  • 11. SEPT 9: LESLIE PASSES 120 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA
  • 12. TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL:FAR OUT IN ATLANTIC—SEPT. 4
  • 13. Between 5 a.m. on Wednesdayand 5 a.m. Thursday, Michael’s pressure suddenly fell 40 mb and the maximum sustained winds increased by 63 mph, truly a remarkable case of rapid intensification
  • 14. MICHAEL BECOMES CAT 3 HURRICANE: SEPT. 6
  • 15. Michael, the 7th hurricane of 2012 and located 980 mileswest-southwest of the Azores and heading northeast at 7 mph, will likely weaken as it encounters colder waters..
  • 16. MICHAEL’S PATH: SEPT. 6
  • 17. MICHAEL’S ULTIMATE PATH
  • 18. On Sept. 7th, the seasonalACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) (using the 1981-2010 data base), stood at 61, or 143% of an average season.
  • 19. BUT---ON SEPTEMBER 12, 2012 A LULL IN ACTIVITY OCCURED AS EL NINO BEGAN AGAIN
  • 20. SEPT. 12: EL NINO BEGINS AGAIN
  • 21. Depending on how quickly El Niño develops, there could be a quick shutdown of tropical systems during the latter part of the Atlantic season and anextended season on the Pacific side.
  • 22. TROPICAL STORM NADINE: SEPT. 12
  • 23. TROPICAL STORM NADINE BECAME A CAT 1HURRICANE ON SEPT. 14 th Because of its location in the Azores,Nadine, the 8th hurricane of the season, did not cause any major concerns in spite of its unusually long life.
  • 24. TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORMED WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ON OCT. 4thOscar, the 15th storm of 2012, was notexpected to last very long or to cause any major problems.
  • 25. TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DIED ON OCTOBER 5
  • 26. TROPICAL STORM PATTYFORMED NORTH OF THEBAHAMAS ON OCT. 11thPatty is the 16th storm of 2012.
  • 27. TROPICAL STORM PATTY
  • 28. TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORMED ON OCT. 12THRafael was the 18th storm and 9th hurricane of the season
  • 29. HURRICANE RAFAEL: A CAT 1 STORM ON OCTOBER 16
  • 30. TROPICAL STORM SANDY FORMED ON OCT. 22NDSandy, whose future is still uncertain, was the 19th storm of the season
  • 31. TROPICAL STORM SANDY: OCTOBER 22
  • 32. CAT I HURRICANE SANDY: OCTOBER 24
  • 33. OCTOBER 24:CAT I HURRRICANE SANDY MADELANDFALL NEAR KINGSTON, THE CAPITOL, IN BERMUDASchools and businesses were closedand people in low-lying areas under a flood watch were evacuated
  • 34. OCTOBER 24 Sandy, now the season’s ninth hurricane, is a huge storm with windand rain bands reaching out 330 km ormore from the storm center, producing 15-50 cm of rain in Bermuda, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Cuba
  • 35. LIKELY IMPACTS OF SANDY ON“FLORIDA SATURDAY”-- OCTOBER 27• Miami, Florida, which is already water- logged from 1 ½ meters of rain this summer, is expected to experience more rain, gusty winds, huge waves, and dangerous rip tides as a likely weakened Sandy continues to move northward.
  • 36. FORECAST FOR SANDY: OCTOBER 24
  • 37. POSSIBILITIES AFTER “FLORIDA SATURDAY”• Sandy could veer northeastward and eventually die in the Atlantic.• Or, Sandy could become a powerful Nor’easter as it moves northward along the Eastern US seaboard
  • 38. CUMMULATIVE IMPACTS 66 DEATHSECONOMIC LOSSES: $2.577 BILLION