THE GLOBAL DISASTER
LABORATORY MODEL:
AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR GLOBAL
VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE
FRAMEWORK 1
A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-
DISCIPLINARY DIALOGUE
ON
GLOBAL DISASTERS
AND DISASTER RESILIENCE
1. SCOPE
FROM VULNERABLE CONTINUUMS
TO
A DISASTER
TO
DISASTER RESILIENT COMMUNITIES
THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION OF
“THE BEST PO...
A DISASTER is ---
--- the set of failures that occur when
the continuums of: 1) people, 2)
community (i.e., a set of habit...
THREE DYNAMIC CONTINUUMS
• PEOPLE (7+ Billion and
counting)
• COMMUNITIES
• RECURRING EVENTS
(AKA Natural Hazards, which a...
PEOPLE = INNOVATION
200 NATIONS AND 7+
BILLION PEOPLE
NORTH
AMERICA
CARIBBEAN
BASIN
SUB-SAHARA
AFRICA
MEDITER-
RANEAN
ISLA...
INTERSECTION OF THESE
CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE
SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL
CAUSE A DISASTER,
AND SOME WON’T
THE PEOPLE CONTINUUM
• 7 + BILLION
(DISTRIBUTED
THROUGHOUT
THE WORLD)
LIKE AN INFINITE SERIES: A CONTINUUM
OF INNOVATION NEVER ENDS
LIKE A CHAIN: A CONTINUUM
HAS WEAK LINKS TO IMPROVE
FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS
• IGNORANCE
• APATHY
• DISCIPLINARY
BOUNDARIES
• LACK OF POLITICAL WILL
THE COMMUNITY CONTINUUM:
(SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE)
• GOVERNMENT
• DWELLINGS
• SCHOOLS
• HEALTH CARE
FACILI...
EACH COMMUNITY MUST BE
READY FOR THE INEVITABLE
INTERSECTION THAT WILL
CHALLENGE ITS
STATE-OF-RESILIENCE
THE RECURRING - EVENTS
CONTINUUM
• FLOODS
• SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
• EARTHQUAKES
• DROUGHTS
• VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
• ETC.
RECURRING VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
RECURRING EARTHQUAKES
RECURRING TROPICAL STORMS
TYPHOONS, HURRICANES, AND CYCLONES
RECURRING FLOODS
RECURRING DROUGHT
EPISODES
CURRENT KNOWLEDGE
IS DEFINED BY ANECTDOTAL,
EMPIRICAL, LINEAR, NON-LINEAR,
STATISTICAL, FUZZY,
PROBABILISTIC, . . . AND
TH...
FRAMEWORK 2
A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-
DISCIPLINARY INTEGRATION
OF KNOWLEDGE FOR
THE END GAME OF
DISASTER RESILIENCE
IN THE 2...
POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR
DISASTER RESILIENCE
Anticipatory Preparedness
Adoption and Implementation of Realistic
Building...
YOUR
COMMUNITYDATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUN...
THE END GAME CHALLENGE
BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES
INNIVATIVE ACTIONS: CREATE, ADJUST,
AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS...
BEST POLICIES AND BEST
PRACTICES
WILL IDENTIFY/CLOSE
KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS,
AND
IDENTIFY/FIX WEAK LINKS IN THE
PEOPLE...
BEST POLICIES AND BEST
PRACTICES WILL
CALL FOR INNOVATIVE
USE OF TECHNOLOGY
AND STRATEGIC
PLANNING
THE STATE-OF-RESILIENCE WILL
INCREASE EXPONEBTIALLY AS ---
a) The CAPACITY of the PEOPLE is
increased, b) Physical and
org...
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
INNOVATIVE PREPAREDNESS
USE GLOBAL VOLCANIC
ERUPTION DISASTER
LABORATORIES AS A BASIS FOR
PREPARING FROM “A”
(Emergency Re...
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES
FOR VOLCANO DISASTER
RESILIENCE
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR
VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE
• FORECASTS OF
ERUPTIONS
• MONITORING
TECHNOLOGIES (E.G.,
DEFORMATIO...
MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES
.
DISASTER RESILIENCE
STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
DISASTER RESILIENCE
STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
• PURPOSE
• PROTECTION
• CONTROL
• AVIATION SAFETY
• TECHNIQUE
• DESIGN ROOFS...
PROTECTION: DESIGN ROOFS
FOR WET ASH
• A LOAD OF WET
ASH ON A ROOF IS
TEN TIMES
HEAVIER THAN A
LOAD OF WET
SNOW.
AVIATION SAFETY:MODELS
TO AVOID VOLCANIC ASH
• JET AIRCRAFT
ARE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO ENGINE
FAILURE AND FREE
FALL WHEN
FLYING TH...
LAVA DIVERSION
CHANNELS: CONTROL
• LAVA FLOWS CAN
NOT BE PRE-
VENTED FROM
OCCURRING, BUT
THEY CAN BE
DIVERTED AWAY
FROM UR...
DISASTER RESILIENCE
STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
• PURPOSE
• COMPUTER
MODELS OF A
SPECIFIC VOL-
CANO, OR A
SPECIFIC HAZARD
(E....
EXAMPLE: COMPUTER MODELS OF
SELECTED ACTIVE VOLCANOES
• PRECURSORS TO
EXPECT
• LIKELY
EXPLOSIVENESS
• LIKELY SPATIAL
AND T...
COMPUTER MODELS: MOUNT
RAINIER: LAHAR SIMULATION
LAHAR DIVERSION
CHANNELS: CONTROL
• LAHARS CAN NOT
BE PREVENTED
FROM OCCUR-
RING, BUT THEY
CAN BE DIVERTED
AWAY FROM
URBAN...
DISASTER RESILIENCE
STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
• PURPOSE
• URBAN PLANNING
• EVACUATION
• TECHNIQUE
• MAPS: LAVA
AND/OR LAHAR...
EXAMPLE: MOUNT MERAPI
EVACUATION PLAN
• 11,000 from
three districts
were evacuated
to schools and
other
designated
emergen...
MANY CHOSE TO EVACUATE
• Many citizens
chose to
evacuate, as
was ordered.
• Many villagers
remembered the
1994 disaster
an...
MANY CHOOSE NOT TO
EVACUATE
• Many citizens
chose not to
evacuate because
shelters are boring
and they needed
to provide f...
GLOBAL VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE. AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK DEMONSTRATION OF THE GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORY MODEL
GLOBAL VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE. AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK DEMONSTRATION OF THE GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORY MODEL
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GLOBAL VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE. AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK DEMONSTRATION OF THE GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORY MODEL

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VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS are awesome manifestations of heat flowing as a result of mantle hot spots (e.g., Hawaii and Iceland) or explosive eruptions in subduction zones (e.g., the Pacific Rim). LESSON: THE KNOWLEDGE AND TIMING OF ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS IS VITAL. The people who know: 1) what hazards to expect (e.g., vertical ash plume, lateral blast, lava flow, lahar), 2) where and when they will happen, and 3) what they should (and should not) do to prepare for them will survive. The people who have timely, realistic, advance information that facilitates reduction of vulnerabilities, and hence the risks associated with the vertical ash plume, pyroclastic flows, tephra, lava flows, and lahars will survive. The people who have timely, accurate, advance information that facilitates evacuation to get our of harm’s way of pyroclastic flows, lava flows, and lahars will survive. The International Community provides millions to billions of dollars in relief to help “pick up the pieces, ” but this strategy is not enough by itself to ensure earthquake disaster resilience. THE CHALLENGE: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE KINDS OF TURNING POINTS NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE. Presentation courtesy of Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

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GLOBAL VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE. AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK DEMONSTRATION OF THE GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORY MODEL

  1. 1. THE GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORY MODEL: AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR GLOBAL VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE
  2. 2. FRAMEWORK 1 A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER- DISCIPLINARY DIALOGUE ON GLOBAL DISASTERS AND DISASTER RESILIENCE
  3. 3. 1. SCOPE FROM VULNERABLE CONTINUUMS TO A DISASTER TO DISASTER RESILIENT COMMUNITIES THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION OF “THE BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES” OF DISASTER RESILIENCE
  4. 4. A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that occur when the continuums of: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., volcanic eruptions, floods, ...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the community is not ready.
  5. 5. THREE DYNAMIC CONTINUUMS • PEOPLE (7+ Billion and counting) • COMMUNITIES • RECURRING EVENTS (AKA Natural Hazards, which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)
  6. 6. PEOPLE = INNOVATION 200 NATIONS AND 7+ BILLION PEOPLE NORTH AMERICA CARIBBEAN BASIN SUB-SAHARA AFRICA MEDITER- RANEAN ISLAND NATIONS ASIA SOUTH AMERICA EUROPE
  7. 7. INTERSECTION OF THESE CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL CAUSE A DISASTER, AND SOME WON’T
  8. 8. THE PEOPLE CONTINUUM • 7 + BILLION (DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT THE WORLD)
  9. 9. LIKE AN INFINITE SERIES: A CONTINUUM OF INNOVATION NEVER ENDS
  10. 10. LIKE A CHAIN: A CONTINUUM HAS WEAK LINKS TO IMPROVE
  11. 11. FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS • IGNORANCE • APATHY • DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES • LACK OF POLITICAL WILL
  12. 12. THE COMMUNITY CONTINUUM: (SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE) • GOVERNMENT • DWELLINGS • SCHOOLS • HEALTH CARE FACILITIES • BUSINESSES • INFRA- STRUCTURE • ETC
  13. 13. EACH COMMUNITY MUST BE READY FOR THE INEVITABLE INTERSECTION THAT WILL CHALLENGE ITS STATE-OF-RESILIENCE
  14. 14. THE RECURRING - EVENTS CONTINUUM • FLOODS • SEVERE WINDSTORMS • EARTHQUAKES • DROUGHTS • VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS • ETC.
  15. 15. RECURRING VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
  16. 16. RECURRING EARTHQUAKES
  17. 17. RECURRING TROPICAL STORMS TYPHOONS, HURRICANES, AND CYCLONES
  18. 18. RECURRING FLOODS
  19. 19. RECURRING DROUGHT EPISODES
  20. 20. CURRENT KNOWLEDGE IS DEFINED BY ANECTDOTAL, EMPIRICAL, LINEAR, NON-LINEAR, STATISTICAL, FUZZY, PROBABILISTIC, . . . AND THEORETICAL MODELS HAVING DIVIDES, GAPS, AND UNCERTAINTIES
  21. 21. FRAMEWORK 2 A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER- DISCIPLINARY INTEGRATION OF KNOWLEDGE FOR THE END GAME OF DISASTER RESILIENCE IN THE 21ST CENTURY
  22. 22. POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE Anticipatory Preparedness Adoption and Implementation of Realistic Building Codes & Standards Timely Early Warning and Evacuation Timely Emergency Response (including Evacuation and Emergency Medical Services) Cost-Effective Recovery/Reconstruction
  23. 23. YOUR COMMUNITYDATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS •FLOODS •SEVERE WIND STORMS •EARTHQUAKES …ETC A DISASTER CAUSES FAILURES IN POLICIES FAILURES IN PRACTICES COUNTER MEASURES • BEST POLICIES •BEST PRACTICES DISASTER RESILIENCE
  24. 24. THE END GAME CHALLENGE BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES INNIVATIVE ACTIONS: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE PARA-DIGM SHIFTS THAT ARE NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE
  25. 25. BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL IDENTIFY/CLOSE KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS, AND IDENTIFY/FIX WEAK LINKS IN THE PEOPLE/COMMUNITY CONTINUUMS
  26. 26. BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL CALL FOR INNOVATIVE USE OF TECHNOLOGY AND STRATEGIC PLANNING
  27. 27. THE STATE-OF-RESILIENCE WILL INCREASE EXPONEBTIALLY AS --- a) The CAPACITY of the PEOPLE is increased, b) Physical and organizational VULNERABILITIES in the COMMUNITY are eliminated, and c) Each people-community-hazard INTERSECTION is met successfully.
  28. 28. VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
  29. 29. INNOVATIVE PREPAREDNESS USE GLOBAL VOLCANIC ERUPTION DISASTER LABORATORIES AS A BASIS FOR PREPARING FROM “A” (Emergency Response) TO “Z” (Recovery and Reconstruction)
  30. 30. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE
  31. 31. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE • FORECASTS OF ERUPTIONS • MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DEFORMATION, SEISMICITY, GAS EMISSIONS, REMOTE SENSING, WINDS) • WARNING SYSTEMS • DATABASES FOR EACH VOLCANO • COMPUTER MODELS OF VOLCANOES • MAPS • DISASTER SCENARIOS • HAZARD ASSESSMENT • RISK ASSESSMENT
  32. 32. MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES .
  33. 33. DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
  34. 34. DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES • PURPOSE • PROTECTION • CONTROL • AVIATION SAFETY • TECHNIQUE • DESIGN ROOFS FOR WET ASH • LAVA AND/OR LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS • MODELS OF ASH DISTRIBUTION
  35. 35. PROTECTION: DESIGN ROOFS FOR WET ASH • A LOAD OF WET ASH ON A ROOF IS TEN TIMES HEAVIER THAN A LOAD OF WET SNOW.
  36. 36. AVIATION SAFETY:MODELS TO AVOID VOLCANIC ASH • JET AIRCRAFT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ENGINE FAILURE AND FREE FALL WHEN FLYING THROUGH AN ASH CLOUD.
  37. 37. LAVA DIVERSION CHANNELS: CONTROL • LAVA FLOWS CAN NOT BE PRE- VENTED FROM OCCURRING, BUT THEY CAN BE DIVERTED AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS INTO THE OCEAN
  38. 38. DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES • PURPOSE • COMPUTER MODELS OF A SPECIFIC VOL- CANO, OR A SPECIFIC HAZARD (E.G., ASH DISTRIBUTION) • TECHNIQUE • REAL TIME MONITORING • ERUPTION HISTORY OF A VOLCANO
  39. 39. EXAMPLE: COMPUTER MODELS OF SELECTED ACTIVE VOLCANOES • PRECURSORS TO EXPECT • LIKELY EXPLOSIVENESS • LIKELY SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF PHYSICAL EFFECTS
  40. 40. COMPUTER MODELS: MOUNT RAINIER: LAHAR SIMULATION
  41. 41. LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS: CONTROL • LAHARS CAN NOT BE PREVENTED FROM OCCUR- RING, BUT THEY CAN BE DIVERTED AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS.
  42. 42. DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES • PURPOSE • URBAN PLANNING • EVACUATION • TECHNIQUE • MAPS: LAVA AND/OR LAHAR FLOW PATHS • COMMUNITY EVACUATION PLAN
  43. 43. EXAMPLE: MOUNT MERAPI EVACUATION PLAN • 11,000 from three districts were evacuated to schools and other designated emergency shelters.
  44. 44. MANY CHOSE TO EVACUATE • Many citizens chose to evacuate, as was ordered. • Many villagers remembered the 1994 disaster and did not want to repeat it.
  45. 45. MANY CHOOSE NOT TO EVACUATE • Many citizens chose not to evacuate because shelters are boring and they needed to provide for livestock and tend crops.

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