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GLOBAL VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE. AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK DEMONSTRATION OF THE GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORY MODEL
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GLOBAL VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE. AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK DEMONSTRATION OF THE GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORY MODEL

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VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS are awesome manifestations of heat flowing as a result of mantle hot spots (e.g., Hawaii and Iceland) or explosive eruptions in subduction zones (e.g., the Pacific Rim). LESSON: …

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS are awesome manifestations of heat flowing as a result of mantle hot spots (e.g., Hawaii and Iceland) or explosive eruptions in subduction zones (e.g., the Pacific Rim). LESSON: THE KNOWLEDGE AND TIMING OF ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS IS VITAL. The people who know: 1) what hazards to expect (e.g., vertical ash plume, lateral blast, lava flow, lahar), 2) where and when they will happen, and 3) what they should (and should not) do to prepare for them will survive. The people who have timely, realistic, advance information that facilitates reduction of vulnerabilities, and hence the risks associated with the vertical ash plume, pyroclastic flows, tephra, lava flows, and lahars will survive. The people who have timely, accurate, advance information that facilitates evacuation to get our of harm’s way of pyroclastic flows, lava flows, and lahars will survive. The International Community provides millions to billions of dollars in relief to help “pick up the pieces, ” but this strategy is not enough by itself to ensure earthquake disaster resilience. THE CHALLENGE: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE KINDS OF TURNING POINTS NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE. Presentation courtesy of Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

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  • 1. THE GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORY MODEL: AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR GLOBAL VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE
  • 2. FRAMEWORK 1 A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER- DISCIPLINARY DIALOGUE ON GLOBAL DISASTERS AND DISASTER RESILIENCE
  • 3. 1. SCOPE FROM VULNERABLE CONTINUUMS TO A DISASTER TO DISASTER RESILIENT COMMUNITIES THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION OF “THE BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES” OF DISASTER RESILIENCE
  • 4. A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that occur when the continuums of: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., volcanic eruptions, floods, ...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the community is not ready.
  • 5. THREE DYNAMIC CONTINUUMS • PEOPLE (7+ Billion and counting) • COMMUNITIES • RECURRING EVENTS (AKA Natural Hazards, which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)
  • 6. PEOPLE = INNOVATION 200 NATIONS AND 7+ BILLION PEOPLE NORTH AMERICA CARIBBEAN BASIN SUB-SAHARA AFRICA MEDITER- RANEAN ISLAND NATIONS ASIA SOUTH AMERICA EUROPE
  • 7. INTERSECTION OF THESE CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL CAUSE A DISASTER, AND SOME WON’T
  • 8. THE PEOPLE CONTINUUM • 7 + BILLION (DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT THE WORLD)
  • 9. LIKE AN INFINITE SERIES: A CONTINUUM OF INNOVATION NEVER ENDS
  • 10. LIKE A CHAIN: A CONTINUUM HAS WEAK LINKS TO IMPROVE
  • 11. FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS • IGNORANCE • APATHY • DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES • LACK OF POLITICAL WILL
  • 12. THE COMMUNITY CONTINUUM: (SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE) • GOVERNMENT • DWELLINGS • SCHOOLS • HEALTH CARE FACILITIES • BUSINESSES • INFRA- STRUCTURE • ETC
  • 13. EACH COMMUNITY MUST BE READY FOR THE INEVITABLE INTERSECTION THAT WILL CHALLENGE ITS STATE-OF-RESILIENCE
  • 14. THE RECURRING - EVENTS CONTINUUM • FLOODS • SEVERE WINDSTORMS • EARTHQUAKES • DROUGHTS • VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS • ETC.
  • 15. RECURRING VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
  • 16. RECURRING EARTHQUAKES
  • 17. RECURRING TROPICAL STORMS TYPHOONS, HURRICANES, AND CYCLONES
  • 18. RECURRING FLOODS
  • 19. RECURRING DROUGHT EPISODES
  • 20. CURRENT KNOWLEDGE IS DEFINED BY ANECTDOTAL, EMPIRICAL, LINEAR, NON-LINEAR, STATISTICAL, FUZZY, PROBABILISTIC, . . . AND THEORETICAL MODELS HAVING DIVIDES, GAPS, AND UNCERTAINTIES
  • 21. FRAMEWORK 2 A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER- DISCIPLINARY INTEGRATION OF KNOWLEDGE FOR THE END GAME OF DISASTER RESILIENCE IN THE 21ST CENTURY
  • 22. POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE Anticipatory Preparedness Adoption and Implementation of Realistic Building Codes & Standards Timely Early Warning and Evacuation Timely Emergency Response (including Evacuation and Emergency Medical Services) Cost-Effective Recovery/Reconstruction
  • 23. YOUR COMMUNITYDATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS •FLOODS •SEVERE WIND STORMS •EARTHQUAKES …ETC A DISASTER CAUSES FAILURES IN POLICIES FAILURES IN PRACTICES COUNTER MEASURES • BEST POLICIES •BEST PRACTICES DISASTER RESILIENCE
  • 24. THE END GAME CHALLENGE BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES INNIVATIVE ACTIONS: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE PARA-DIGM SHIFTS THAT ARE NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE
  • 25. BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL IDENTIFY/CLOSE KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS, AND IDENTIFY/FIX WEAK LINKS IN THE PEOPLE/COMMUNITY CONTINUUMS
  • 26. BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL CALL FOR INNOVATIVE USE OF TECHNOLOGY AND STRATEGIC PLANNING
  • 27. THE STATE-OF-RESILIENCE WILL INCREASE EXPONEBTIALLY AS --- a) The CAPACITY of the PEOPLE is increased, b) Physical and organizational VULNERABILITIES in the COMMUNITY are eliminated, and c) Each people-community-hazard INTERSECTION is met successfully.
  • 28. VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
  • 29. INNOVATIVE PREPAREDNESS USE GLOBAL VOLCANIC ERUPTION DISASTER LABORATORIES AS A BASIS FOR PREPARING FROM “A” (Emergency Response) TO “Z” (Recovery and Reconstruction)
  • 30. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE
  • 31. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE • FORECASTS OF ERUPTIONS • MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DEFORMATION, SEISMICITY, GAS EMISSIONS, REMOTE SENSING, WINDS) • WARNING SYSTEMS • DATABASES FOR EACH VOLCANO • COMPUTER MODELS OF VOLCANOES • MAPS • DISASTER SCENARIOS • HAZARD ASSESSMENT • RISK ASSESSMENT
  • 32. MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES .
  • 33. DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
  • 34. DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES • PURPOSE • PROTECTION • CONTROL • AVIATION SAFETY • TECHNIQUE • DESIGN ROOFS FOR WET ASH • LAVA AND/OR LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS • MODELS OF ASH DISTRIBUTION
  • 35. PROTECTION: DESIGN ROOFS FOR WET ASH • A LOAD OF WET ASH ON A ROOF IS TEN TIMES HEAVIER THAN A LOAD OF WET SNOW.
  • 36. AVIATION SAFETY:MODELS TO AVOID VOLCANIC ASH • JET AIRCRAFT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ENGINE FAILURE AND FREE FALL WHEN FLYING THROUGH AN ASH CLOUD.
  • 37. LAVA DIVERSION CHANNELS: CONTROL • LAVA FLOWS CAN NOT BE PRE- VENTED FROM OCCURRING, BUT THEY CAN BE DIVERTED AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS INTO THE OCEAN
  • 38. DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES • PURPOSE • COMPUTER MODELS OF A SPECIFIC VOL- CANO, OR A SPECIFIC HAZARD (E.G., ASH DISTRIBUTION) • TECHNIQUE • REAL TIME MONITORING • ERUPTION HISTORY OF A VOLCANO
  • 39. EXAMPLE: COMPUTER MODELS OF SELECTED ACTIVE VOLCANOES • PRECURSORS TO EXPECT • LIKELY EXPLOSIVENESS • LIKELY SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF PHYSICAL EFFECTS
  • 40. COMPUTER MODELS: MOUNT RAINIER: LAHAR SIMULATION
  • 41. LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS: CONTROL • LAHARS CAN NOT BE PREVENTED FROM OCCUR- RING, BUT THEY CAN BE DIVERTED AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS.
  • 42. DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES • PURPOSE • URBAN PLANNING • EVACUATION • TECHNIQUE • MAPS: LAVA AND/OR LAHAR FLOW PATHS • COMMUNITY EVACUATION PLAN
  • 43. EXAMPLE: MOUNT MERAPI EVACUATION PLAN • 11,000 from three districts were evacuated to schools and other designated emergency shelters.
  • 44. MANY CHOSE TO EVACUATE • Many citizens chose to evacuate, as was ordered. • Many villagers remembered the 1994 disaster and did not want to repeat it.
  • 45. MANY CHOOSE NOT TO EVACUATE • Many citizens chose not to evacuate because shelters are boring and they needed to provide for livestock and tend crops.