2014 PACIFIC TYPHOON SEASON
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2014 PACIFIC TYPHOON SEASON

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More tropical storms and typhoons are expected during the 2014 season as a consequence of an increased El Nino effect in the Pacific. Neoguri is expected to become 2014’s first super typhoon on ...

More tropical storms and typhoons are expected during the 2014 season as a consequence of an increased El Nino effect in the Pacific. Neoguri is expected to become 2014’s first super typhoon on Monday. Okinawa will likely see the worst impacts from the storm Monday night with rainfall rates of 50 mm (2 inches) or greater per hour at times, sustained winds as high as 260 kph (160 mph) with occasional gusts of 315 kph (195 mph). Potential disaster agents (aka hazards) of a typhoon include the following:wind field [cat 1 (55 mph) to cat 5+ (155 mph or greater)]; debris; storm surge/floods; heavy precipitation/floods; landslides (mudflows); coastal erosion. Presentation courtesy of Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

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2014 PACIFIC TYPHOON SEASON Presentation Transcript

  • 1. 2014 TYPHOON SEASON
  • 2. 2014 TYPHOON SEASON Sunday, 6 July 2014 NEOGURI EXPECTED TO BECOME 2014’S FIRST SUPER TYPHOON ON MONDAY
  • 3. SUPER TYPHOON NEOGURI
  • 4. NEOGURI WILL IMPACT LIVES AND PROPERTY IN JAPAN • Okinawa will likely see the worst impacts from the storm Monday night with rainfall rates of 50 mm (2 inches) or greater per hour at times, sustained winds as high as 260 kph (160 mph) with occasional gusts of 315 kph (195 mph)," stated AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Evan Duffey
  • 5. TIMELY ACTIONS • Residents and visitors in the path of this intensifying and dangerous typhoon should use the time now to make the necessary preparations and heed all evacuation orders.
  • 6. FORECAST FOR 2014 More tropical storms and typhoons are expected during the 2014 season as a consequence of an increased El Nino effect in the Pacific.
  • 7. POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AND RISK FROM TYPHOONS
  • 8. POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS (AKA HAZARDS) OF A TYPHOON • WIND FIELD [CAT 1 (55 mph) TO CAT 5+ (155 mph or greater)] • DEBRIS • STORM SURGE/FLOODS • HEAVY PRECIPITATION/FLOODS • LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS) • COSTAL EROSION
  • 9. HAZARDS ELEMENTS OF WINDSTORM RISK EXPOSURE VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK
  • 10. HIGH POTENTIAL LOSS EXPOSURES IN A TYPHOON Entire communities; People, property, infra- structure, business enterprise, government centers, crops, wildlife, and natural resources.
  • 11. A DISASTER CAN HAPPEN WHEN THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A TYPHOON INTERACT WITH A COMMUNITY’S BUILT AND SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT
  • 12. WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE TYPHOONS UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS STORM SURGE IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN SITING PROBLEMS FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES CAUSES OF DAMAGE “DISASTER LABORATORIES”
  • 13. A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., windstorms, floods,…) intersect at a point in space and time.
  • 14. Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness, joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.
  • 15. THE REASONS ARE . . . • When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure can be LOST.
  • 16. THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community is UN- PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence— high-probability of adverse consequences event.
  • 17. THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.
  • 18. THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.
  • 19. THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.
  • 20. THE ALTERNATIVE TO A TYPHOON DISASTER IS TYPHOON DISASTER RESILIENCE
  • 21. COMMUNITIES DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS •WINDSTORM HAZARDS •PEOPLE & BLDGS. •VULNERABILITY •LOCATION WINDSTORM RISK RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK GOAL: TYPHOON DISASTER RESILIENCE • PREPAREDNESS •PROTECTION •EARLY WARNING •EMERGENCY RESPONSE •RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION POLICY OPTIONS
  • 22. TECHNOLOGIES FOR MONITORING, FORECASTING, WARNING, AND DISASTER SCENARIOS ARE VITAL FOR SURVIVAL IN A HURRICANE
  • 23. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL WIND- STORMS PREPAREDNES FOR THE EXPECTED AND UNEXPEDTED IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
  • 24. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL WIND- STORMS PROTECTION OF PEOPLE AND PROPERTY IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
  • 25. ALL WINDSTORMS ADDING A “SAFE ROOM” IS ONE WAY TO PROTECT PEOPLE
  • 26. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL WIND- STORMS EARLY WARN- ING (THE ISS) AND EVACU- ATION ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
  • 27. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL WIND- STORMS TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
  • 28. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL WIND- STORMS RECOVERY AND RECON- STRUCTION USUALLY TAKES LONGER THAN THOUGHT.