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Flood Early Warning System in Pakistan

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The study is carried Out for analyzing the shortcomings of Flood Early Warning System in Pakistan

The study is carried Out for analyzing the shortcomings of Flood Early Warning System in Pakistan

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  • 1. Analyzing the shortcomings of Flood Early warning system in Pakistan Students: Dawood Jan Ismail Khan Kiramat Ullah Supervised By: Dr. Khurram Shehzad Department of Civil Engineering Gandhara Institute of Science and Technology Peshawar Peshawar03/17/13 1
  • 2.  Introduction Problem statement Objective Literature review Findings of Literature Review Task accomplished On going task Timeline References03/17/13 2
  • 3.  Overflow or inundation from water body causes flood. Inundations may caused due to: ▪ High rainfall ▪ Snow melting ▪ Failure of Dam/reservoir ▪ Tsunamis  Pakistan faced 150 major disasters since 1947 in which most are floods  In July 2010 Flood, about 20 million Pakistanis affected  Inundates an area of 100,000 sq-km  2000 casualties has been recorded.[1]  Overall loss of US $ 10.05 Billions  Implementation of effective flood early warning system may save lives03/17/13 3
  • 4.  Poor early warning system for floods may increase in the damages of the livelihoods and infrastructures. Poor flood forecasting is also the cause of disastrous affects on the peoples at risk. Poor warnings may increase the post flood cost in case of urban floods.03/17/13 4
  • 5.  To investigate the shortcomings of flood forecasting To investigate the shortcomings of communication of flood warning To investigate the shortcomings of mechanism of flood preparedness Suggest the set of actions to enhance the effectiveness of flood early warning system in Pakistan03/17/13 5
  • 6. Continued….APPROACH EMPLOYED FOR ISSUE OF FLOOD FORECASTS:Collection of hydrological and meteorological dataTransmission/Communication of data to the forecasting CentresAnalysis of data and formulation of forecastsDissemination of forecasts and warning to the concerned Authorities of the State.  Police Stations  District management group45 PMD observatories are employed in the system, Map Attached:Models Used By PMD for FEWS are:Rainfall-Runoff Model  SAMORouting Model  SOBEK03/17/13 6
  • 7. Literature ReviewAccomplished task Continued….  SAMO (Sacramento) is a Rainfall-Runoff Model which conforms important phenomenon of hydrological cycle such as:  Rainfall  Evaporation  Infiltration and  Base flow  It has a small computational time interval and can analysis a watershed which has been divided into several smaller parts, each having its own parameter set of:  Evaporation rate  Rainfall  The rainfall of past 24 hours, recorded through  telemetric stations  Meteorological observatories  Radar observations03/17/13 7
  • 8. Literature Review Continued….Accomplished task  SOBEK include morphology of main rivers and characteristics of hydraulic structure  It is developed using:  Physical description of the geometry of rivers,  Continuity equation  Balance of forces governing the flow of water in open channels.  It can properly represent the influence of:  Bridges  Barrages  Dams  Propagation of flood waves.  SOBEK is used to predict:  Water level  Discharges  Extent of flooding along a river reach. 03/17/13 8
  • 9. 03/17/13 9
  • 10. Following are the shortcomings in the Flood forecasting: Rainfall runoff and routing of Kabul River is not incorporated in the Flood Early Warning System Model The catchments of FEWS Model also do not tally with the radar’s catchments Tributaries which have been incorporated in the FEWS Model are not gauged with respect to level/discharge The resolution of this radar images is very low and radar data is not calibrated There are no upper-air observation stations in northern mountainous area03/17/13 10
  • 11. The comparison of Actual and Forecasted Discharge at Tarbela Source: Floods-2010 causes, management & damages member (water)03/17/13 11
  • 12. 03/17/13 12
  • 13. Source: Floods-2010 causes, management & damages member (water)03/17/13 13
  • 14. Source: Floods-2010 causes, management & damages member (water)03/17/13 14
  • 15. 03/17/13 15
  • 16.  Literature Review Data Collection Visits and meetings  Flood Forecasting Division Lahore  Department of Hydrology WAPDA  Pakistan Meteorology Department Lahore  PMD Regional office Peshawar First objective which was error analysis of flood forecasting03/17/13 16
  • 17.  Shortcomings in communication of FF System in Pakistan Shortcomings of mechanism of flood preparedness Actions and corresponding resource requirements for enhancement of effectiveness of FEWS in Pakistan03/17/13 17
  • 18. 03/17/13 18
  • 19. 1. Mission report (nov-2010) WMO fact-finding & needs-assessment mission to Pakistan, “review of severe flooding situation” art. 4.1 page 12.2. Mission report (nov-2010) WMO fact-finding & needs-assessment mission to Pakistan, “PMD forecasting and warning services” page 04.3. Floods-2010 causes, management & damages member (water)03/17/13 19