Big Data and the 2012 Campaign: SXSW 2012

MediaButton

Splash page experimentVariations: Button: Media: 1. Sign Up 1. Get Involved Image 2. Learn More 2. Family Image 3. Join Us Now 3. Change Image 4. Sign Up Now 4. Barack’s Video 5. Springfield Video 6. Sam’s Video

Button: “Sign Up”

Button: “Learn More”

Button: “Join Us Now”

Button: “Sign Up Now”

Media: “Get Involved”

Media: “Family”

Media: “Change”

Media: “Barack’s Video”

Media: “Springfield Video”

Media: “Sam’s Video”

Splash page experiment results

Splash page experiment results Email Volunteers Amount Raised SubscriptionsOriginal: 7,120,000 712,000 $143,000,000+40.6% +2,880,000 +288,000 +$57,000,000 New: 10,000,000 1,000,000 $200,000,000

Exclude religious/political Exclu+18.5%Prompt for reason before commit +11.1% “ask” > “inspire” +5.9% “optional” +4.5% “<Your Friend> asks” +19.2%

Email me: Follow me:dan@optimizely.com @dsiroker

Modeling is using the data you have about avoter to make an informed judgment about: - whether they will vote - who they will vote for - what issues affect their vote - any other question you think has predictable (reproducible) behaviors

humans make models all the time, as wecollect data & make informed judgments: ? 80% likelihood of voting for Obama

SURVEY GOP=94% (94/100)STATEWIDE GOP~94% (94,000/100,000)50 years old white56% 59% 63% 68% 85% 89% 94% % GOP

- knowledge management- master data management- data harmonization- voter relationship managementOBAMA CAMPAIGN’S PROJECT NARWHAL

Slowly lowering the wall between online & offline data 1. Data providersWilliam Alexander Lundry, 2. Targeted Display AdsRegistered Republican 3. Facebook Apps 4. Volunteered Association

The Conservative Data Ecosystem RNC Data Trust Themis United In Purpose

Big Political Data for the masses

Periodic to real time

Responds to DM Likelihood to vote Partisan Affiliation Top Issue Likelihood to unsubscribeLikelihood to volunteer Best Channel for GivingReceptiveness to treatment

The world of surveyresearch is changing rapidly.

The average phone surveyresponse rate is around 20% and declining.

27% of UShouseholds arecell only. (CDC)

46% of American adults own a smartphone.

Telephone ConsumerProtection Act of 1991

Online research tools are emerging.

Whether online works as a tooldepends on what we want to measure.

As it gets harder to ask... What if we get better about listening?

Sentiment? I can go totwittersentiment.appspot.com and get an analysis.

Does “Who said it - Newt or Buzz Lightyear?” reallycount as a positive tweet?

“Gingrich had 6 percent more activity than the other candidates and the positive sentiment on him related to Super Tuesday is at 84 percent. Sentiment in general online conversation about him is only at 45 percent. So it seems his folks arePhoto: Marc Grob for Time working the online world hard.” -From POLITICO “Playbook,” Super Tuesday (March 6 2012), quoting an email from a Washington-based public affairs consultant

Survey Sentiment Analysis• Landline bias • Online/activist bias• Contained universe • Variable universe• Concrete results • Subject to interpretation• “Snapshot” in time • Real-time, evolving• Message testing • Identify new trends

http://lanyrd.com	42
http://tweetedtimes.com	1
http://bundlr.com	1

Big Data and the 2012 Campaign: SXSW 2012

by engage on Mar 14, 2012

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Usage Rights

3 Embeds 44

Statistics

Big Data and the 2012 Campaign: SXSW 2012 Presentation Transcript