Nabucco - ITGI - TAP: Competing Projects or Partner Pipelines?

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Anthony Livanios …

Anthony Livanios
CEO
Energy Stream CMG GmbH
Oil & Gas Strategies
www.energystreamcmg.com
energystreamblog.com

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  • 1. Nabucco- ITGI - TAP:
    Competing Projects or Partner Pipelines?
    Anthony Livanios
    CEO
    Energy Stream CMG GmbH
    Oil & Gas Strategies
    Athens, Greece
    30 May 2011
  • 2. EU Diversification Policy & Security of Gas supply
    A key aim of the European Union (EU) in the next few years is to ensure its natural gas supply originates from more countries via new pipelines. This is commonly referred to as a diversification policy of sources and transportation routes.
    • EU Gas consumption 2009: 484 bcm
    • 3. EU Gas Demand: by 2030: 771 bcm
    • 4. Current EU imports: 60% - by 2030: 85%
    • 5. 40% of EU gas imports: Russia
    • 6. Diversification of routes
    • 7. Diversification of gas sources
    • 8. Integrated EU gas market
    Energy Stream CMG
    OIL & GAS STRATEGIES
  • 9. EU Southern Gas Corridor Nabucco - ITGI - TAP
    Pipelines under design
    • Nabucco: Turkey (Erzurum) – Austria (Baumgarten)
    -- Capacity : 31 bcm/yr
    • ITGI: Interconnector: Turkey – Greece – Italy
    -- Capacity: 10 bcm/yr to the EU
    • TAP: Turkey – Greece – Albania – Italy:
    -- Capacity: 20 bcm/yr
    No pipeline consortium has reached an FID as of today
    Energy Stream CMG
    OIL & GAS STRATEGIES
  • 10. The Main Questions
    The current competition among the three pipeline consortia -Nabucco, ITGI, TAP- is not a competition among different gas pipelines. In reality, it is a competition between countries and corporations.
    Does this competition in commercial and geopolitical interests benefit the energy security of the EU?
    Could it be that Nabucco, ITGI and TAP have more common interests than differences?
    Are they competing projects or partner pipelines?
    What is the best energy policy for the Greek government vis-à-vis the Southern Corridor?
    Energy Stream CMG
    OIL & GAS STRATEGIES
  • 11. Azerbaijan: A Key Player
    Azerbaijan occupies a place of special importance for the Southern Corridor because the giant natural gas field of Shah Deniz, the largest in the whole of the Caspian Sea, lies within its territorial waters
    • Shah Deniz Phase II, will produce approximately 14bcm/yr for the next 25 years
    • 12. The Shah Deniz consortium is comprised of Britain’s BP, with 25.5%, Norway’s STATOIL, with 25.5%, Azerbaijan’s SOCAR, with 10%, Turkey’s BOTAS, with 9% and others
    • 13. Ajerbaijan’s significant geopolitical position
    • 14. Ajerbaijan will develop into a gas transit country (quantities from Turkmenistan and Central Asian countries)
    Energy Stream CMG
    OIL & GAS STRATEGIES
  • 15. The Ambitious Nabucco
    Energy Stream CMG
    OIL & GAS STRATEGIES
  • 16. The Ambitious Nabucco
    • Is the most ambitious
    • 17. The most expensive
    • 18. Largest pipeline that would transport gas to central Europe
    • 19. Nabucco’s problem: gas from Azerbaijan is not sufficient
    • 20. Turkmenistan is not a viable source – transportation by ship or, alternatively subsea, is not economically viable, due to geopolitical disputes with Russia
    • 21. Iraq could not supply Nabucco with natural gas because it recently committed itself to satisfy its internal market
    Energy Stream CMG
    OIL & GAS STRATEGIES
  • 22. The Advantages of ITGI
    Energy Stream CMG
    OIL & GAS STRATEGIES
  • 23. The Advantages of ITGI
    • ITGI has a different logic
    • 24. ITGI has binding inter-governmental agreements
    • 25. Is the most mature pipeline
    • 26. ITGI opens up the EU’s Southern Corridor in the most economically effective way
    • 27. Political leadership of Greece and Italy – strong efforts by DEPA and Edison
    Energy Stream CMG
    OIL & GAS STRATEGIES
  • 28. TAP: Economically the most efficient
    Energy Stream CMG
    OIL & GAS STRATEGIES
  • 29. TAP: Economically the most efficient
    • The TAP consortium is comprised of Norway’s powerful STATOIL
    • 30. STATOIL reinforces the credibility of TAP consortium
    • 31. TAP is the shortest pipeline to Italy
    • 32. It has the lowest cost
    • 33. TAP is economically the most efficient
    • 34. More political support is needed
    • 35. We must leave open the possibility that it is the “outsider” that will finally win and sign the gas supply contract with Shah Deniz II
    Energy Stream CMG
    OIL & GAS STRATEGIES
  • 36. Strategic Synergies?
    • For the EU the three pipelines are complementary
    • 37. They are all officially supported by the European Commission
    • 38. All together contribute to European energy security than each one of them separately
    • 39. To begin with, one pipeline will be constructed
    • 40. Some consortia may join forces
    • 41. The Greek energy policy should seek to promote effectively both ITGI and TAP
    • 42. The best energy policy for the Greek government is to support politically with equal weight both ITGI and TAP
    Energy Stream CMG
    OIL & GAS STRATEGIES
  • 43. Anthony Livanios
    CEO
    Energy Stream CMG GmbH
    Oil & Gas Strategies
    www.energystreamcmg.com
    energystreamblog.com