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National Energy Security Fund




 The Role of A zerbaijan
and Russia in the
European Energy
Securit y Strategy

               Konstantin Simonov
                                  Paris
                                 April 13
                                  2012
Expectations and Reality

• It is out of question that Azeri gas
  will come to European market
• But it will be not a driver of serious
  changes in EU
• Extremely high expectations:
  Europeans consider that South
  Corridor is the solution to all
  problems of EU on gas market
 National Energy Security Fund
Small Amount

16 bcm – 6 bcm for Turkey = just 10 bcm
According to IEA consumption in OECD-Europe in 2020 can be
more than 600 bcm

                           Share of Azeri Gas in European consumption
                                      (OECD-Europe, 2020)




 National Energy Security Fund
Difficult co compete
                  with Russia

                             Gazprom Supplies to Europe, Turkey,
                                    Billion Cubic Metres

             165
                                   158,8
             160

             155
                     150,5                                         150
             150

             145
                                              140,6
                                                         138,6
             140

             135

             130

             125
                     2007y        2008 y      2009 y     2010y     2011y

                                                Source: Gazprom

National Energy Security Fund
Difficult co compete
                        with Russia

                       Consumption of Russian gas in France (bcm)

12
                              10,4         10,1
            9,8                                            9,8      9,5
10

8

6

4

2

0
           2007y              2008y        2009y          2010y     2011y




     National Energy Security Fund
Shakh Deniz Cup

           Serious battle for very small
                  amount of gas
TAP
                 TAP
ITGI

                                10 bcm!!!
Nabucco
SEEP

National Energy Security Fund
It is profitable to have
      Gasprom an a neighbour

                          Estimate Price for European Consumers

     450                                397                   415
                  380                                                             373
     400
     350
     300
     250
     200
     150
     100
      50
       0
           Price for European    Price for European    Price for European    Average price for
           consumers for Azeri   consumers for Azeri   consumers for Azeri Russian gas (nine
             gas transporting      gas transporting      gas transporting     months ended
            through Nabucco          through ITGI          through TAP     September 30, 2011)




                                                                        Source: RWE, Gazprom, NESF
National Energy Security Fund
South Corridor vs.
                 South Corridor




National Energy Security Fund
                                Source: Gazprom
The Question of Price

• Assets in Europe – the future
 of DEPA and DESFA (Socar is
 one of pretenders)
• Solution of political problems


National Energy Security Fund
Сonsequences of Possible
              War in Iran

Ethnic structure of Iran Population
          (million people)

        13

                                 Persians
    5
                                 Azerbaijanians
                                 Kurds
                        45       Others
   12




                                                  Source: The University of Texas
National Energy Security Fund
Сonsequences of Possible
          War in Iran

                     Shares in Shakh Deniz Field
                            9,0%
                  10,0%                25,5%
                                               BP (operator)
                                               Statoil
                                               Total
               10,0%
                                               NICO
                                               Lukoil
                                               SOCAR
                 10,0%
                                               TPAO
                                       25,5%
                        10,0%

National Energy Security Fund
Azerbaijan as a
                  Transit Country?




National Energy Security Fund
Looking for Reliable Route


Azerbaijan +
Georgia +
                                 Russia +
Turkey
                                 Ukraine




 National Energy Security Fund
Memo to the Supporters
         of Free Competition
• In the chain of gas supplies to GDF Suez of France Gazprom
  got rid of the intermediary Fragaz as far back as several
  years ago. In 2006, however, as it renewed the gas supply
  contract with Gaz de France (12 billion cubic metres a year)
  and signed a new contract to supply gas by the new gas
  pipeline, Nord Stream (2.5 billion cubic metres), the Russian
  corporation reached agreement to move the gas delivery
  point to the border of France and got the right to sell 1.5
  billion cubic metres of gas annually in the French market on
  its own. A company called Gazprom Marketing & Trading
  France was established for that purpose
• It should be noted that only an insignificant portion of the
  140-150 billion cubic metres of Gazprom’s annual export to
  European countries and Turkey is sold by the group to end-
  users


 National Energy Security Fund
Thank you!

                www.energystate.ru



National Energy Security Fund

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The role of azerbaijan and russia in the european energy security strategy

  • 1. National Energy Security Fund The Role of A zerbaijan and Russia in the European Energy Securit y Strategy Konstantin Simonov Paris April 13 2012
  • 2. Expectations and Reality • It is out of question that Azeri gas will come to European market • But it will be not a driver of serious changes in EU • Extremely high expectations: Europeans consider that South Corridor is the solution to all problems of EU on gas market National Energy Security Fund
  • 3. Small Amount 16 bcm – 6 bcm for Turkey = just 10 bcm According to IEA consumption in OECD-Europe in 2020 can be more than 600 bcm Share of Azeri Gas in European consumption (OECD-Europe, 2020) National Energy Security Fund
  • 4. Difficult co compete with Russia Gazprom Supplies to Europe, Turkey, Billion Cubic Metres 165 158,8 160 155 150,5 150 150 145 140,6 138,6 140 135 130 125 2007y 2008 y 2009 y 2010y 2011y Source: Gazprom National Energy Security Fund
  • 5. Difficult co compete with Russia Consumption of Russian gas in France (bcm) 12 10,4 10,1 9,8 9,8 9,5 10 8 6 4 2 0 2007y 2008y 2009y 2010y 2011y National Energy Security Fund
  • 6. Shakh Deniz Cup Serious battle for very small amount of gas TAP TAP ITGI 10 bcm!!! Nabucco SEEP National Energy Security Fund
  • 7. It is profitable to have Gasprom an a neighbour Estimate Price for European Consumers 450 397 415 380 373 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Price for European Price for European Price for European Average price for consumers for Azeri consumers for Azeri consumers for Azeri Russian gas (nine gas transporting gas transporting gas transporting months ended through Nabucco through ITGI through TAP September 30, 2011) Source: RWE, Gazprom, NESF National Energy Security Fund
  • 8. South Corridor vs. South Corridor National Energy Security Fund Source: Gazprom
  • 9. The Question of Price • Assets in Europe – the future of DEPA and DESFA (Socar is one of pretenders) • Solution of political problems National Energy Security Fund
  • 10. Сonsequences of Possible War in Iran Ethnic structure of Iran Population (million people) 13 Persians 5 Azerbaijanians Kurds 45 Others 12 Source: The University of Texas National Energy Security Fund
  • 11. Сonsequences of Possible War in Iran Shares in Shakh Deniz Field 9,0% 10,0% 25,5% BP (operator) Statoil Total 10,0% NICO Lukoil SOCAR 10,0% TPAO 25,5% 10,0% National Energy Security Fund
  • 12. Azerbaijan as a Transit Country? National Energy Security Fund
  • 13. Looking for Reliable Route Azerbaijan + Georgia + Russia + Turkey Ukraine National Energy Security Fund
  • 14. Memo to the Supporters of Free Competition • In the chain of gas supplies to GDF Suez of France Gazprom got rid of the intermediary Fragaz as far back as several years ago. In 2006, however, as it renewed the gas supply contract with Gaz de France (12 billion cubic metres a year) and signed a new contract to supply gas by the new gas pipeline, Nord Stream (2.5 billion cubic metres), the Russian corporation reached agreement to move the gas delivery point to the border of France and got the right to sell 1.5 billion cubic metres of gas annually in the French market on its own. A company called Gazprom Marketing & Trading France was established for that purpose • It should be noted that only an insignificant portion of the 140-150 billion cubic metres of Gazprom’s annual export to European countries and Turkey is sold by the group to end- users National Energy Security Fund
  • 15. Thank you! www.energystate.ru National Energy Security Fund