National Energy Security FundRussia and Europe:Time of StrategicChoice                 Konstantin Simonov                 ...
Choice Point• Сhoice point for Europe: to preserve Russia as  the main supplier of gas or to continue the  process of dive...
Problem of Perception• The decline of export from Russia is  perceiving in EU as a great victory• The priority of European...
Gas Market of EU              Consumption and Production of Gas in EU (bcm)600              522                           ...
Gas Market of EU                              Main Exporters of Gas to EU (bcm)14012010080                                ...
Russian Gas        in the South of Europe          Gazprom supplies to South of Europe and Turkey, bcm                    ...
Model of Cooperation• Now – Serbia and Bulgaria• Then Hungary and Greece• PanRusgas – in 2015 (7 bcm)• DEPA – in 2016 (3 b...
Gazprom is not Flexible?• A reserve of $6.8 billion to make  retroactive payments was built into  the Gazprom budget for 2...
Main Problems                   of South Corridor• Price war for Azeri gas• Increasing of the role of Turkey• Very complic...
Competition for Gas               Export of Gas to Russia from CA and Caspian Region (bcm)18             15,916           ...
Caspian Gas is not Cheap                       Estimate Price for European Consumers  450                                3...
Diversification of Oil Export                             Russian Oil Export (millions of tons)     300     250           ...
Diversification of Oil Export               Russian Export of Oil Products (millions of tons)140                   131,34 ...
Diversification of Oil Export                           Russian Oil Export to China (millions of tons)     16     14     1...
Thank you!                www.energystate.ruNational Energy Security Fund
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Russia and Europe: Time of Strategic Choice

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Konstantin Simonov’s speech presentation at The 2012 Mediterranean Oil & Gas Conference
Athens, Greece, May 28, 2012.

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Russia and Europe: Time of Strategic Choice

  1. 1. National Energy Security FundRussia and Europe:Time of StrategicChoice Konstantin Simonov Athens May 28 2012
  2. 2. Choice Point• Сhoice point for Europe: to preserve Russia as the main supplier of gas or to continue the process of diversification and liberalization of market• Choice point for Russia: struggle for European market or reorientation to new consumers in Asia• Europe wants to implement American model of market. But in USA gas market is self-sufficient• Main question for Russia: to invest money to Greenfields or to wait National Energy Security Fund
  3. 3. Problem of Perception• The decline of export from Russia is perceiving in EU as a great victory• The priority of European Energy Policy is not stability of supply but diversification and liberalization National Energy Security Fund
  4. 4. Gas Market of EU Consumption and Production of Gas in EU (bcm)600 522 471500400 2010y300 2011y 185 165200100 0 Consumption Production Source: EurogasNational Energy Security Fund
  5. 5. Gas Market of EU Main Exporters of Gas to EU (bcm)14012010080 2010y60 2011y4020 0 Russia Norway Algeria Qatar Source: Eurogas National Energy Security Fund
  6. 6. Russian Gas in the South of Europe Gazprom supplies to South of Europe and Turkey, bcm 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Turkey 23,4 23,8 20,0 18,0 26,0 Italy 21,0 22,3 19,0 13,0 17,1 Greece 3,1 2,8 2,1 2,1 2,9 Bulgaria 3,4 3,5 2,6 2,7 2,8 Serbia 2,2 2,1 1,5 1,8 1,4 Slovenia 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 Slovakia 0,6 0,6 0,5 0,5 0,5 Croatia 1,0 1,1 1,1 1,1 0,0 Bosnia and Herzegovina 0,3 0,3 0,2 0,3 0,3 Macedonia 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 Source: GazpromNational Energy Security Fund
  7. 7. Model of Cooperation• Now – Serbia and Bulgaria• Then Hungary and Greece• PanRusgas – in 2015 (7 bcm)• DEPA – in 2016 (3 bcm) National Energy Security Fund
  8. 8. Gazprom is not Flexible?• A reserve of $6.8 billion to make retroactive payments was built into the Gazprom budget for 2012 when it was approved at the end of 2011. And reports were published in April 2012 that the estimate of these payments might increase to $10 billion in 2012• Gazprom also has to weaken the take or pay rule National Energy Security Fund
  9. 9. Main Problems of South Corridor• Price war for Azeri gas• Increasing of the role of Turkey• Very complicated transit corridor (Turkmenistan (?) + Azerbaijan + Georgia + Turkey)• Political price of development of South Corridor• Consequence of War in Iran for Caspian Region National Energy Security Fund
  10. 10. Competition for Gas Export of Gas to Russia from CA and Caspian Region (bcm)18 15,916 13,914 12,412 10,7 9,510 2010y 8 6,4 2011y 6 4 1,5 2 0,8 0 Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Azerbaijan Source: GazpromNational Energy Security Fund
  11. 11. Caspian Gas is not Cheap Estimate Price for European Consumers 450 397 415 380 375 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Price for European Price for European Price for European Average price for consumers for Azeri consumers for Azeri consumers for Azeri Russian gas (2011) gas transporting gas transporting gas transporting through Nabucco through ITGI through TAP Source: RWE, Gazprom, NESFNational Energy Security Fund
  12. 12. Diversification of Oil Export Russian Oil Export (millions of tons) 300 250 26,25 29,9 200 Russian oil export to FSU 150 220,7 Russian oil export 100 212,2 overseas 50 0 2010y 2011y Source: Ministry of Energy of RF, Neftegazovaya VerticalNational Energy Security Fund
  13. 13. Diversification of Oil Export Russian Export of Oil Products (millions of tons)140 131,34 124,9120100 80 60 40 20 0 2010y 2011y Source: Ministry of Energy of RF, Neftegazovaya VerticalNational Energy Security Fund
  14. 14. Diversification of Oil Export Russian Oil Export to China (millions of tons) 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2010y 2011y Source: Ministry of Energy of RF, Neftegazovaya VerticalNational Energy Security Fund
  15. 15. Thank you! www.energystate.ruNational Energy Security Fund

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