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Future of european gas market
Future of european gas market
Future of european gas market
Future of european gas market
Future of european gas market
Future of european gas market
Future of european gas market
Future of european gas market
Future of european gas market
Future of european gas market
Future of european gas market
Future of european gas market
Future of european gas market
Future of european gas market
Future of european gas market
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Future of european gas market

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  • 1. Future of European Gas Market Konstantin Simonov Warsaw September, 22 2010
  • 2. U ncertainty <ul><li>A lot of optimism now in Europe about liberalization of gas market and serious competition between gas producers </li></ul><ul><li>But two years ago situation and expectations were absolutely different </li></ul><ul><li>In reality we don’t now exactly what will be with European market in future </li></ul><ul><li>Changes in European position </li></ul><ul><li>2008: Main question: What will be with the level of production in Russia ? Can Russia guarantee the discharge of long term contacts? Russia must do it!!! </li></ul><ul><li>2010: Russia is not so important as gas supplier. We found an alternatives! We have no need in long term contracts, spot market is our future! </li></ul><ul><li>2015-??? </li></ul>
  • 3. Liberalization <ul><li>Liberalization of European gas market is excellent if you have </li></ul><ul><li>Huge amount of money to build new pipelines inside Europe </li></ul><ul><li>Net surplus of gas </li></ul>
  • 4. Optimism vs. Pessimism <ul><li>Optimists: </li></ul><ul><li>Era of gas net surplus </li></ul><ul><li>Competition for the consumer </li></ul><ul><li>Shale gas </li></ul><ul><li>Renewables </li></ul><ul><li>Pessimists </li></ul><ul><li>Production in Europe is going down very fast </li></ul><ul><li>It will be difficult to find extra amount of gas </li></ul><ul><li>Potential of shale gas and renewables ere overestimate d </li></ul>
  • 5. Gas Import of Europe Source: IEA – 2010!
  • 6. Alternative Suppliers <ul><li>Norway has not so many proved reserves and it will be difficult to avoid “oil scenario” in near future </li></ul>Source: BP
  • 7. Alternative Suppliers Source: Vedomosti
  • 8. Alternative Suppliers <ul><li>Qatar has proved reserves but there is no need to operate for a fall of market </li></ul><ul><li>The same tempo of increasing of production is questionably </li></ul><ul><li>Qatar already announced decline of LNG production by 66%. Ras Laffan Liquefied Natural Gas and Qatar Liquefied Gas closed 50% of there LNG facilities </li></ul>Source: BP
  • 9. Third Package <ul><li>The future of Europol Gaz </li></ul><ul><li>Poland is thinking that third package will change the situation. But in reality the main question is still the same - is it possible to find alternative gas? </li></ul><ul><li>Other producers can have an access to the pipeline – but first you must find them </li></ul><ul><li>For Russia the most sensitive question is tariffs on transportation </li></ul><ul><li>Liberalization in the situation of gas deficit can be dangerous </li></ul>
  • 10. Gas Balance of Poland (2009) Source: BP
  • 11. Renewables <ul><li>They can help to avoid serious increasing of oil prices. But they are extremely expensive to be the real substitute of fossil fuel </li></ul><ul><li>Denmark case </li></ul>Source: BP
  • 12. Shale Gas <ul><li>The main problem is not environment or technology. The main problem is price </li></ul><ul><li>Europe is thinking that shale gas will result in cheap gas. But if you want to begin the production you must very high prices on gas </li></ul>
  • 13. Shale Gas
  • 14. What will be in Future? <ul><li>In the situation of uncertainty optimistic forecasts can play a trick on EU </li></ul><ul><li>Polish case: a lot of expectations (shale gas, LNG, Norway etc) but no gas!!! </li></ul>
  • 15. <ul><li>Thank you! </li></ul><ul><li>www.energystate.ru </li></ul>

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