Can Renewables Replace Coal? <br />John Coggins, Manager<br />Resource Planning & Development<br />February 18, 2011<br />
Electric Generation Terminology<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />2<br />Capacity<br />Generator capa...
Electric GenerationCost Categories<br />Construction or capital costs<br />Cost to build a new generating facility<br />Op...
Meeting Customer Needs<br />When available, renewables displace conventional resources<br />Peak<br />Intermediate<br />Ba...
Customer Needs<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />Summer Load Profile<br />5<br />
Peak Capacity Firming - Wind <br />Summer Load Profile<br />Capacity Firming<br />Wind Generation Profile<br />Median Day<...
Peak Capacity Firming - Solar <br />Summer Load Profile<br />Capacity Firming<br />Solar Generation Profile<br />7<br />
Regulation<br />Source:     Jay Apt CMU, 4.6 MW TEP Solar Array (Arizona)<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/1...
Integration Costs<br />Peak Capacity Firming<br />$15-34/MWh<br />Based on capital cost of a new gas turbine <br />Regulat...
What about Storage?<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />10<br />
Conventional Resources<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />11<br />
Renewable Options<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />12<br />* Limited Dispatchability<br />
NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />13<br />Generation Cost Comparison<br />Total LevelizedCost<br />
NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />14<br />Generation Cost Comparison<br />Total LevelizedCost<br />
Capacity FactorTypical Wind Resource<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />15<br />
Capacity FactorTypical Wind Resource<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />16<br />Wind<br />
Capacity FactorWind Vs. Coal<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />17<br />Coal<br />90%<br />Wind<br />
How Much Wind Capacity Is Needed To Replace NGS Energy Production?<br />NGS<br /><ul><li>2250 MW x 8760 hrs/yr x 90% CF
17,739,000 MWh per year</li></ul>Wind Resource<br /><ul><li>17,739,000 MWh    8760 hrs/yr     28% CF
7232 MW of Wind</li></ul>NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />18<br />Energy = Capacity x Time x Capacity Fac...
Wind - Capital Cost<br />7232 MW of Wind<br />Average Capital Cost: $1.54Million/MW<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Cogg...
Wind - Land Requirements<br />Land = 7232 MW x 158 Acres/MW <br />         = 1.14 million acres or 1780 Sq. Miles<br />NGS...
Wind - New Transmission Needs<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />21<br /><ul><li>Existing transmission...
Est. 10 yr lead time</li></li></ul><li>Summary – Wind Example <br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />22<b...
Summary – Solar PV Example<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />23<br />Solar PV<br />NGS<br />Construct...
Conclusions<br />Intermittent renewables cannot meet operational needs<br />Conventional resources are required<br />Renew...
So Where do Renewables Fit in?<br />Renewables can supplement, but not replace, conventional resources  <br />Reduce use o...
Other Considerations<br />If NGS is shut down for any reason, what resources would likely replace it? <br />Where would th...
Where is Gas Generation Located in Arizona?  <br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />27<br />
NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />28<br />
NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />29<br />
SRP Sustainable Portfolio<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />30<br />FY11 Resource Plan<br />
Dry Lake Wind Phase I<br />Iberdrola Renewables<br />63 MW<br />18 miles northwest of Snowflake, AZ, adjacent to State Rou...
Dry Lake Wind Phase II<br />Iberdrola Renewables<br />64 MW<br />3 miles east of Phase I<br />Contract Term:  20 years<br ...
Hudson Ranch Geothermal Phase I<br />Energy Source<br />50 MW <br />Imperial Valley, CA<br />Contract Term: 30 years<br />...
Copper Crossing Solar PV<br /><ul><li>Iberdrola Renewables
20 MW
SunPower polycrystalline panels
Single axis tracking
Florence, AZ
Contract Term: 25 years
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John Coggins/SRP - Coal-fired Plants and Renewables

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  • Gas resources are needed to cover peak demand
  • In addition to the firming service that is required to cover the peak demand on our system, some intermittent resources require an additional step to fully integrate them into the system. This step addresses abrupt fluctuations in the second to second output of the resources
  • DOE 2009 Wind Technologies Market ReportLink: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/pdfs/2009_wind_technologies_market_report.pdfThe report is a comprehensive look at the state of the wind energy industry in the US.  As one part of the scope, it pulls together the results of utility-specific cost studies for regulation. Some of the other topics addressed in the report include statistics on wind growth, wind energy price trends, domestic manufacturing concerns , offshore development and government investment and policy concerns.This report does not address solar integration costs. Such studies are much less developed than wind and as such little data is available. SRP is actively studying the issue itself and will develop its own assessment of integration costs pertinent to SRP’s service area.
  • Thermal Storage:Only in conjunction with Concentrating SolarCost: $2,000/kW for 6-hour storage (this in in addition to the solar capital of ~$4,500/kW)Pro: Extend power production over peakCon: Not entirely proven, risk of salt crystallization in the system, CS requires high water consumption
  • Environmental Costs:SCR, Baghouses and CO2 at $40/tonSCR &amp; Baghouse costs are amortized over a 30 year period of time.
  • Environmental Costs:SCR, Baghouses and CO2 at $40/tonSCR &amp; Baghouse costs are amortized over a 30 year period of time.
  • 7232 MW Wind Need2250 MW NGS that exists already= 4989 MW of new capacity that requires transmission2000 MW/500kV line279 Miles Page to Phx$1.5M/Mile$1.5M x 279 Mi x 3 lines = $1,255,500,000
  • Land assumes 65,000 acre lease area for mine NGS Capital covers costs for Baghouses and SCRs.Wind Capital covers construction capital.
  • NGS Capital covers costs for Baghouses and SCRs.Solar Capital covers construction capital.
  • FP11K Final Plan
  • Suzlon S88 (2.1 MW) wind turbine dimensionsTower: 79 meters from base to turbine hub (87 yards)Rotor assembly: 88 meters in diameter, meaning each rotor blade is 44 meters long (48 yards long) Relative size: Each tower is nearly a football field in height, each rotor blade is half a football field in length.
  • Suzlon S88 (2.1 MW) wind turbine dimensionsTower: 79 meters from base to turbine hub (87 yards)Rotor assembly: 88 meters in diameter, meaning each rotor blade is 44 meters long (48 yards long) Relative size: Each tower is nearly a football field in height, each rotor blade is half a football field in length.
  • Source:From AzJournal.com (Navajo County Publishers)January 28, 2011
  • John Coggins/SRP - Coal-fired Plants and Renewables

    1. 1. Can Renewables Replace Coal? <br />John Coggins, Manager<br />Resource Planning & Development<br />February 18, 2011<br />
    2. 2. Electric Generation Terminology<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />2<br />Capacity<br />Generator capability at a moment in time<br />Unit of measure is “megawatt” (MW)<br />Energy<br />Generator output accumulated over a period of time<br />Unit of measure is “megawatt-hour” (MWh) <br />Energy = Capacity (MW) x Time (h)<br />
    3. 3. Electric GenerationCost Categories<br />Construction or capital costs<br />Cost to build a new generating facility<br />Operating costs<br />Cost to operate and produce electrical energy<br />Delivery costs<br />Cost to build transmission for delivery to customers<br />Integration costs<br />Cost to accommodate intermittency <br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />3<br />
    4. 4. Meeting Customer Needs<br />When available, renewables displace conventional resources<br />Peak<br />Intermediate<br />Baseload<br />Noon<br />AM<br />PM<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />4<br />
    5. 5. Customer Needs<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />Summer Load Profile<br />5<br />
    6. 6. Peak Capacity Firming - Wind <br />Summer Load Profile<br />Capacity Firming<br />Wind Generation Profile<br />Median Day<br />6<br />
    7. 7. Peak Capacity Firming - Solar <br />Summer Load Profile<br />Capacity Firming<br />Solar Generation Profile<br />7<br />
    8. 8. Regulation<br />Source: Jay Apt CMU, 4.6 MW TEP Solar Array (Arizona)<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />8<br />
    9. 9. Integration Costs<br />Peak Capacity Firming<br />$15-34/MWh<br />Based on capital cost of a new gas turbine <br />Regulation<br />$4-9/MWh<br />Results from wind integration cost studies, 2009 Wind Technologies Market Report, U.S. Department of Energy <br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />9<br />
    10. 10. What about Storage?<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />10<br />
    11. 11. Conventional Resources<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />11<br />
    12. 12. Renewable Options<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />12<br />* Limited Dispatchability<br />
    13. 13. NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />13<br />Generation Cost Comparison<br />Total LevelizedCost<br />
    14. 14. NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />14<br />Generation Cost Comparison<br />Total LevelizedCost<br />
    15. 15. Capacity FactorTypical Wind Resource<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />15<br />
    16. 16. Capacity FactorTypical Wind Resource<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />16<br />Wind<br />
    17. 17. Capacity FactorWind Vs. Coal<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />17<br />Coal<br />90%<br />Wind<br />
    18. 18. How Much Wind Capacity Is Needed To Replace NGS Energy Production?<br />NGS<br /><ul><li>2250 MW x 8760 hrs/yr x 90% CF
    19. 19. 17,739,000 MWh per year</li></ul>Wind Resource<br /><ul><li>17,739,000 MWh 8760 hrs/yr 28% CF
    20. 20. 7232 MW of Wind</li></ul>NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />18<br />Energy = Capacity x Time x Capacity Factor<br />
    21. 21. Wind - Capital Cost<br />7232 MW of Wind<br />Average Capital Cost: $1.54Million/MW<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />19<br />$1.54 Million/MW x 7232 MW = <br />$11.1 Billion<br />
    22. 22. Wind - Land Requirements<br />Land = 7232 MW x 158 Acres/MW <br /> = 1.14 million acres or 1780 Sq. Miles<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />20<br />
    23. 23. Wind - New Transmission Needs<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />21<br /><ul><li>Existing transmission</li></ul> built for 2250 MW<br /><ul><li>3 new lines needed</li></ul> for 7232 MW of wind <br /><ul><li>Est. $1.2 B cost
    24. 24. Est. 10 yr lead time</li></li></ul><li>Summary – Wind Example <br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />22<br />NGS<br />Wind<br />Construction Costs ($ Millions)<br />* New Emission Controls<br />
    25. 25. Summary – Solar PV Example<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />23<br />Solar PV<br />NGS<br />Construction Costs ($ Millions)<br />* New Emission Controls<br />
    26. 26. Conclusions<br />Intermittent renewables cannot meet operational needs<br />Conventional resources are required<br />Renewables have high integration and capital costs relative to existing coal<br />High capital costs are compounded when building 3 times the capacity<br />Large land requirements<br />Extensive transmission requirements<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />24<br />
    27. 27. So Where do Renewables Fit in?<br />Renewables can supplement, but not replace, conventional resources <br />Reduce use of fossil fuels<br />Reduce emissions <br />Increase resource diversity<br />Help to decrease water consumption<br />Costs for renewables (and storage) must continue to come down to expand implementation<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />25<br />
    28. 28. Other Considerations<br />If NGS is shut down for any reason, what resources would likely replace it? <br />Where would the replacement resources be located?<br />What would be the impact on the Navajo and Hopi people?<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />26<br />
    29. 29. Where is Gas Generation Located in Arizona? <br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />27<br />
    30. 30. NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />28<br />
    31. 31. NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />29<br />
    32. 32. SRP Sustainable Portfolio<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />30<br />FY11 Resource Plan<br />
    33. 33. Dry Lake Wind Phase I<br />Iberdrola Renewables<br />63 MW<br />18 miles northwest of Snowflake, AZ, adjacent to State Route 377<br />Located on a combination of private, State and BLM land<br />Contract Term: 20 years<br />September 4, 2009 Commercial Operation<br />31<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />
    34. 34. Dry Lake Wind Phase II<br />Iberdrola Renewables<br />64 MW<br />3 miles east of Phase I<br />Contract Term: 20 years<br />November 28, 2010 Commercial Operation<br />32<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />
    35. 35. Hudson Ranch Geothermal Phase I<br />Energy Source<br />50 MW <br />Imperial Valley, CA<br />Contract Term: 30 years<br />Status:<br />Construction began in June <br />Commercial operation estimated Q2 2012<br />SRP has rights to additional development<br />33<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />
    36. 36. Copper Crossing Solar PV<br /><ul><li>Iberdrola Renewables
    37. 37. 20 MW
    38. 38. SunPower polycrystalline panels
    39. 39. Single axis tracking
    40. 40. Florence, AZ
    41. 41. Contract Term: 25 years
    42. 42. Status:
    43. 43. Contracts executed
    44. 44. Construction underway
    45. 45. Commercial operation estimated Q3 2011</li></ul>34<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />
    46. 46. Example SRP Facilities<br /><ul><li>Tempe Service Center (75 kW)
    47. 47. Power Operations Building (75 kW)
    48. 48. Newly constructed call center in Pinal County LEED Certified (180 kW)</li></ul>35<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />
    49. 49. City Partnerships<br />Phoenix Pecos Park Community Center<br />Scottsdale Senior Center<br />Phoenix Pecos Park & Ride<br />U.S. Bureau of Reclamation <br />36<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />
    50. 50. Small Commercial Customer Systems<br /><ul><li>CDC Pools
    51. 51. 9.2 kW system
    52. 52. Completed 2006
    53. 53. Body Sculpting Center
    54. 54. 29 kW system
    55. 55. Completed 2007
    56. 56. Optima
    57. 57. 8 kW system
    58. 58. Completed 2006
    59. 59. Integrity Building Corp.
    60. 60. 19 kW system
    61. 61. Completed 2008</li></ul>37<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />
    62. 62. Gatorade Distribution Center<br /><ul><li>Located on Gatorade/PepsiCo distribution center in Tolleson
    63. 63. 500 kW solar electric system containing 2,448 solar panels
    64. 64. System spans 68,000 sq ft
    65. 65. Estimated CO2 reductions of approximately 392 metric tons per year
    66. 66. Operational October 2008</li></ul>38<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />
    67. 67. EarthWise Energy <br />Desert Botanical Gardens<br /><ul><li>EarthWise Energy allows customers to fund solar energy projects in the community
    68. 68. $3 per month
    69. 69. 5,500 residential customers and 100 business customers
    70. 70. New projects – Nina Mason Pulliam Rio Salado Audubon Education Center, Liberty Wildlife, Sunshine Acres Children’s Home</li></ul>Habitat for Humanity<br />The Phoenix Zoo <br />39<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />
    71. 71. Solar for Schools <br /><ul><li>Funding from grant program to complete installation and ten-year maintenance of solar PV systems on Valley schools
    72. 72. Educational materials and educator training related to solar energy
    73. 73. System will allow students to monitor energy output and use data for “real-world” math learning and application</li></ul>40<br />NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />
    74. 74. NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />41<br />
    75. 75. NGS Stakeholder Meeting J.D. Coggins 2/18/11<br />42<br />Wind Farm’s Second Phase Is Completed And Working <br />By Tammy Gray-Searles<br />In late December, the second phase of Dry Lake Wind Farm was completed and quietly began operation. <br />According to Iberdrola public relations representative Jan Johnson, the testing phase is complete and power is being sold to Salt River Project (SRP). Construction was completed slightly ahead of schedule, and the turbines began running on Dec. 22. <br />“The weather was cooperative over the construction season,” Johnson noted. “Even the wind was cooperative and didn’t blow too hard when we needed to use the cranes.” <br />A total of 31 Suzlon turbines were constructed at the site. They are capable of generating up to 65 megawatts. Johnson noted that the energy produced is enough to power about 9,000 “typical homes served.” <br />According to Iberdrola Business Developer Chris Bergen, the second phase represents a $110 million investment by the company. <br />The latest addition to the wind farm is located just west of Highway 77, about two miles north of the Snowflake town limits, or about five miles north of the start of the business district. In relation to the first phase, it is about four miles southeast of the existing set of turbines. If the two phases were mapped out as squares on a chessboard, they would be diagonal to each other, touching at one corner. Phase II encompasses approximately 10,240 acres. <br />Completion of the second phase just more than doubles the total number of wind turbines in the project, bringing the total to 61. The first phase of the project, which included 30 turbines, was completed in August 2009. <br />According to Johnson, the second phase adds five more full-time permanent jobs. About 200 workers were employed during the construction phase. <br />Power from both phases is sold to SRP as part of a contract between the companies. <br />Now that the second phase is complete, Johnson noted that Iberdrola is making plans for a third phase of construction. <br />“It is in permitting,” she said. “We’re hoping to have additional phases.” <br />

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