Exploring the Next Wave of 10GbE with Crehan Research
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Exploring the Next Wave of 10GbE with Crehan Research

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The Next Wave of 10GbE webcast with Crehan Research was held on 10/5 and focused on current and future 10GbE adapter and switch market drivers and adoption trends, and the effects of the introduction ...

The Next Wave of 10GbE webcast with Crehan Research was held on 10/5 and focused on current and future 10GbE adapter and switch market drivers and adoption trends, and the effects of the introduction of 10GBASE-T products on the overall 10GbE market.

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Exploring the Next Wave of 10GbE with Crehan Research Exploring the Next Wave of 10GbE with Crehan Research Presentation Transcript

  • Explore the Next Wave of 10GbE
  • Webcast House Keeping
    All attendees will be on mute during the presentation
    Please submit your questions via the text/chat feature
    We will do all Q&A at the end of the presentation
  • Agenda
    Emulex - Next Steps in Networking
    Crehan Research - 10 Gigabit Ethernet (10GbE) Market Update
    Emulex – The Maturing Converged Market Place
    Q&A with Seamus Crehan
    View slide
  • Shaun Walsh
    VP Marketing, Emulex
    Next Steps in Networking
    View slide
  • Next Steps in Network Convergence
    StorageUniverse
    VirtualNetworking
    CloudConnectivity
    Multi-Fabric
    o
    • RoCEE Low Latency
    • UnifiedMulti-Fabric I/O
    • 10GBASE-T, 16GFC
    • 7ZB by 2013
    • Big Data (Hadoop)
    • SSDs drive performance
    • Universal Multi-Channel
    • SR-IOV, VXLAN, GRE
    • Virtual Networking
    • Cloud LOM Technology
    • I/O Isolation
    • Connect I/O Engine
  • Drivers of 10GbE and Network Convergence
    Competitive
    Advantage
    Lower Cost
    Gb and IOPS
    Virtual Machine
    Density
    Increased Use of Virtual Resources for Real Work Loads!
  • Waves of 10GbE Adoption
    Sources:
    Crehan Research Server-class Adapter and LOM Report
    ESG Deployment Paper 2010
    IDC WW External Storage Report 2010
    IT Brand Pulse 10GbE Survey April 2010
    FCoE Storage 25% of I/O
    10GbE LOM Everywhere
    Wave 3
    Cloud Container Servers for Web Giants and Telcos
    1-2 Socket Server
    with NICs and Modular LOMs
    Wave 2
    10GbE Adoption Waves
    2-4 Socket X86 and Unix Rack Servers Drive 10Gb with Modular LOMs and UCNAs
    10Gb NAS and iSCSI Drive IP SAN Storage for Unstructured Data
    Wave 1
    10Gb LOM and Adapters for Blade Servers
    50% of IT Managers Cite Virtualization as the Driver of 10GbE in Blades
    2010
    2011
    2013
    Beyond
    2012
  • 10GbE Market Update
    Seamus Crehan
    Founder, Crehan Research, Inc
    Email: Seamus@CrehanResearch.com
    Phone: (650) 273-8400
    CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission
  • 10GbE Server Adapter & LOM Port Shipments
    10GbE Server Adapter/LOM Shipments
    Ports growing ~ 20% Q/Q
    1H11 port shipments of ~2.3 M
    Close to doubling Y/Y
    Very strong traction without:
    Romley/Sandy Bridge upgrade
    10GBASE-T
    Strong macro economy
    Ports in Millions
    CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission
  • Current Market Adoption & Drivers
    Blade servers
    Virtualization
    Storage network attach
    Cloud & large production data centers
    Massive expansion of connected devices
    High-density server access switches
    Market close to doubling Y/Y
    10
    CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission
  • Future Market Drivers
    Continuation of current market drivers
    Romley/Sandy Bridge
    Convergence
    Storage – FCoE, iSCSI
    HPC – Low latency
    “Big Data”
    10GBASE-T
    11
    Server Adapter/LOM Shipments
    Ports in Millions
    CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission
  • 10GBASE-T Adapter/LOM Adoption
    Ramp starting in 2012
    FlexLOM/daughter card
    Native LOM
    Stand-up cards
    Numerous high-density/high-volume server access switches
    Large installed base of Cat 6/6a data center cabling
    12
    10GbE Port Interface Shipments
    Ports in Millions
    CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission
  • 10GbE Adapter/LOM Pricing Trends
    Steep ASP declines
    Multiport solutions
    Increased copper mix
    Mezzanine card and LOM mix
    Significant 10GbE bandwidth discount on all major form-factors
    Cable and slot savings
    13
    Server Adapter/LOM Bandwidth Pricing
    $ ASP per Gigabit of Bandwidth
    CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission
  • Server Access Switches
    Ports growing ~ 20% Q/Q
    Quarterly run-rate >1M ports
    Recent traction stronger in Fixed/T-o-R
    High density 10GBASE-T switches from numerous vendors
    ASP per port halved since 2008
    14
    Server Adapter/LOM Bandwidth Pricing
    Port Shipments in Millions (Bars)
    CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission
  • 10GBASE-T Data Center Switch Adoption
    High-density fixed/top-of-rack switches
    High-density chassis/modular end-of-row line cards
    10GBASE-T close to half of data center switch ports by end of 2015
    More on-board LOM and pre-installed cabling reduces customers variable cost of 10GBASE-T adoption
    15
    10GBASE-T Data Center Switch Ports
    % of Total Datacenter Switch Port Mix
    CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission
  • BASE-T Factors for Speed Upgrade
    Power
    Cabling installed base
    LOM for rack servers
    Server-access switches
    Bandwidth discount
    16
    CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission
  • 10GbE Pricing TrendsSwitch + Server Connection
    Significant bandwidth discount for 10GbE connection versus 1GbE connection
    Bandwidth discount continues to increase
    ~40% in 2008
    ~60% in 2011
    ~70% in 2012
    Network hardware only – also incremental cable savings
    17
    Switch + Server Pricing Trends
    $ ASP per Port (Switch + Server)
    CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission
  • Summary
    10GbE server-class adapter & LOM shipments have reached significant volumes already.
    Traffic/device growth, virtualization, convergence, cloud and bandwidth cost savings have been, and will remain key drivers.
    Impending key drivers such as Romley/Sandy Bridge,10GBASE-T, more attractive pricing and emerging applications will propel next adoption stage.
    Expect 10GBASE-T to become majority of server-class adapter/LOM and data center switch connections.
    18
    CREHAN RESEARCH Inc. restricted -- do not redistribute without permission
  • The Maturing Converged Market Place
    19
  • Evolution of 10GbE Network Convergence
    HP FlexFabric
    IBM Virtual Fabric
    Cisco UCS
    Dell NPAR
    10GbE LOM
    10GbE CNAs
    HW iSCSI/FCoE
    x86 and Unix
    Blade and Rack
    HP iSCSI/FCoE
    NetApp iSCSI/FCoE
    EMC iSCSI/FCoE
    DELL iSCSI/DCB
    IBM iSCSI/FCoE
    VMware vNICs
    Virtual Switch
    ESX HW iSCSI
    ESX FCoE
    VM vCenter
    Blade Switches
    Blade PTMs
    TOR Switches
    Core Directors
    Converged Fabric-based Computing
    Converged Switching
    Convergence for Server
    Virtualization
    Converged Adapters & LOMs
    Converged Storage
  • Wrap Up
    Many Phase to Market Transitions and Implementation
    10GBASE-T will drive 10GbE Cost in Racks
    Network Convergence is Coming; Best to be Ready
    Management of Domains Will be the Most Challenging
    10GBASE-T is Like Hanging Out with an Old Friend
  • THANK YOU
    For more information, please contact Shaun Walsh
    949.922.7472 shaun.walsh@emulex.com