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Cause of Bangladesh stock market crash
Cause of Bangladesh stock market crash
Cause of Bangladesh stock market crash
Cause of Bangladesh stock market crash
Cause of Bangladesh stock market crash
Cause of Bangladesh stock market crash
Cause of Bangladesh stock market crash
Cause of Bangladesh stock market crash
Cause of Bangladesh stock market crash
Cause of Bangladesh stock market crash
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Cause of Bangladesh stock market crash

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Cause of Bangladesh stock market Crsh

Cause of Bangladesh stock market Crsh

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  • 1. 3. A Brief Account of the Timeline of the Historic Fall Timeline of historical fall of the crash has been divided into two Sections which are December 2010 and January 2011. December 2010 The last glorious day for the investors of capital market in 2010 was 5 th December. On that day DSE General Index (DGEN) gained its all-time highest 8918.51 point & broke all old records of DSE turnover by Taka 32.50 billion. In 2010, both BSEC and Bangladesh Bank took a number of initiatives to keep the market under control. But in December both BB & BSEC changed many of their previous directives and applied new ones. On 6th December, 2010 BSEC introduced a directive saying that buy orders will be performed after encashment of Investor`s cheque. On the following day another directive called “netting facilities” was applied. This indicates that no investor will be able to purchase Securities against the sale proceedings of any other Securities during the settlement & clearance period. But both directives of 6 th & 7 th December were cancelled on 8 th December. The reason of cancelling these directives was a significant fall of share prices on 8th December. (Bhuiyan, 2011) 7000 7200 7400 7600 7800 8000 8200 8400 8600 8800 9000 9200 12/1/2010 12/3/2010 12/5/2010 12/7/2010 12/9/2010 12/11/2010 12/13/2010 12/15/2010 12/17/2010 12/19/2010 12/21/2010 12/23/2010 12/25/2010 12/27/2010 12/29/2010 DSE General Index December 2010 DSE General Index December 2010
  • 2. Figure: DSE General Index December 2010 BSEC changed directive of margin loan ratio by increasing it from 1:0.5 to 1:1 on 13 th December and later it was again hiked to 1:1.5 & 1:2 because of free fall of share prices. (Bhuiyan, 2011) Bangladesh Bank got a complain that Banks are investing money in the stock market from their reserve. On the 1 st day of December, BB sent 50 teams in different banks of Dhaka & Chittagong to investigate and found some banks in such irregularities. Again on December 2010, BB issued directives to withdraw the illegally invested industrial loans and to increase Statutory liquidity Ratio (SLR) & Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR). On 15 th December, BB increased CRR and SLR by 0.5 percent and increased to 19 & 6 percent. Another important directive initiated by BB was the withdrawal of illegally invested industrial loans by December 31, 2010. As a lot of the reserved money was invested in capital market, banks started selling shares and withdrawing that money from the market. By the time investors became panicked. To handle the disastrous situation & assure the panicked investors BB extended its deadline for submitting and adjusting loans. For the merchant banks the deadline was January 15, 2011 and for the commercial bank February 15, 2011. (Raisa, 2011) As December is the closing period for many organizations, Institutional investors including financial institutions started selling shares from the beginning of December to show high return on investment at their balance sheet. As the institutions & bank started selling their shares from the beginning of December the turnover of DSE was the highest ever in its history on 5 th December. (Raisa, 2011) 19 th December was a historical day of the financial year 2010-11 in Bangladesh stock market. On this day DSE witnessed its biggest one day fall in 55 years history until the date with losing 551.76 points or 6.71 percent. The losing index was even higher than 284.78 points or 3.32 percent of 12th December. Prices started to nosedive in an hour after the trading started and about 200 points were wiped off. In the middle of the session it recovered little bit and ended up the session at 7654 points. In the mid December, to meet CRR & SLR requirements of BB by the deadline created liquidity crisis in banking Sector and call money rate made a new record of 180%. Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB), state-owned commercial banks (SCBs), regulators and
  • 3. government brought some kind of stability in the market after the big fall of 19 th December & liquidity crisis. As a result, share prices increased from 20 th to until 30 th December and index stood at 8290 point at the end of the financial year 2010-11. January 2011 From 3 rd January, 2011, Stock prices started to fall as investors had the information of ongoing liquidity crisis in the financial & non-financial institutions that limiting the margin loan. On 9 th January DSE General (DGEN) Index declined by 600 points and all indices declined nearly 7.75 percent. On 10 th January Dhaka Stock Exchange General (DGEN) Index lost by 660 points or 9 percent & Chittagong Stock Exchange Selective (CSE) Index declined by 914 points or 6.8 percent within 50 minutes of trading. CSE All Share Price Index (CASPI) stood at 19212.34 losing by 1396.21point, which is 6.77 percent. CSE Selective Categories Index (CSCX) lost 914 points or 6.87 percent and CSE-30 Index also lost 1490.83 or 8.28 percent. It had broken all previous records of decreasing index. After that Security & Exchange Commissions called for an emergency meeting with BB and stop trading at both Dhaka & Chittagong Stock Exchanges Investors came out in the street with processions and demonstrated against free fall of Share index in both bourses as well as suspension of trading. The Government, Central Bank & BSEC took immediate actions following the two days consecutive historical fall of stock prices to soothe the market. As a result, recovery was initiated with institutional buyer’s i.e. merchant banks, state-owned banks & non-financial institutions. Institutional buyers were asked not to sell shares rather to buy. Bangladesh Bank pushed money into the market as liquidity support and repo. DGEN made the largest gain in the history of Bangladesh on 11 th January by recovering 15.6%. (Chowdhury, 2011)
  • 4. Figure: DSE General Index January 2011 However, on 18 th January, the index started to decline and the market hit the lowest turnover in nine months which is TK. 8.49 billion. Thus, investors came out in the street once again and started protesting against free fall of share prices. BSEC asked DSE & CSE to halt trading for the 2 nd time within 8 days. DSE General Index (DGEN) declined by 243 points or 3.29 percent and CSE Selective Category Index 298 points after a trading of around 2.4 hours. Though steps were taken and applied by the government, BB and regulators to improve the market conditions and bring the investors’ confidence, market index declined heavily on 20 th January as DGEN slipped by 599.77 points or 8.68 percent. From 26 th of January there was an increase trend of index. But finally Index stood at the lowest point which is 5579 from 7 th to 14 th February. (Khalid, 2011) 3.1. Reasons behind the crash After the historic capital market manipulation, Government of Bangladesh formed a four membered probe committee led by Mr. Khondokar Ibrahim Khaled to find out the individuals and institutions responsible for the market scam. The committee submitted a report consisting of the reasons for the crash and recommendations with couple of case studies on 7th April, 2011. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 1/1/2011 1/3/2011 1/5/2011 1/7/2011 1/9/2011 1/11/2011 1/13/2011 1/15/2011 1/17/2011 1/19/2011 1/21/2011 1/23/2011 1/25/2011 1/27/2011 1/29/2011 1/31/2011 DSE General Index January 2011 DSE General Index January 2011
  • 5. The report has identified a group of manipulators including key officials, auditors, issuers, issue- managers, brokers, individual investors and some other stakeholders. Moreover, some independent researchers, analysts and economists have also published some articles and given interview in a view to discuss the reasons of the crash. In the following Sections, the factors contributed to the market crash are discussed. Role of market regulators and their employees: The role of BSEC to control & monitor capital market, working in favor of manipulators, approving unethical proposal and issuing wrong directives which lead to unexpected market conditions deteriorated the image of BSEC. Investigation report mentioned some names of corrupt employees of the market regulators who were directly or indirectly re-sponsible in the market manipulation. There is a job overlapping between BSEC and exchanges. Such as, DSE & BSEC both organizations have surveillance de-partment for the same job but there is no co- ordination. Listing committee of DSE & CSE examines listing application of company but BSEC doesn’t do it properly and approve it. Placement of Mutual fund & IPO at a price lower than the market value has become a new method of bribery for powerful employees of regulators. There is another accusation that these senior level employees re-ceived placement by using other`s name which is very difficult to identify. The report admits that BSEC doesn’t have enough employees for example; qualified accountant, financial analyst and researcher to control and monitor the market. Rahman & Moazzem (2011) identified in their study that Dhaka stock exchange is becoming more volatile but the regulators are unable to defend it. They also suggested increasing manpower and quality of professionals in BSEC. Demutualization of Exchanges The executive board of both DSE and CSE is formed with members both elected and nominated. The elected members mostly come from a pool of big investors. Due to the less interest and relation of nominated members, these elected members run the administration. Consequently, the players of the capital market act as controller. It has been found that, during the period of market manipulation, controllers are inactive because of conflicting interest. In the investigation report it
  • 6. has been pointed out that, different stakeholders of capital market support demutualization of exchanges which is the process of converting exchanges from non-profit, member owned organization to for-profit, investor owned corporation. Uniform Face Value of Shares In 2009 & 2010, 62 listed companies spilt their shares to make a uniform face value of share at Tk. 10. In theory, splitting shares doesn’t intend to change revenue or asset and thus should not affect share prices. However, as splitting shares make it possible for small investors to buy those shares which were previously expensive, small investors showed a lot of enthusiasm to buy split shares and consequently pushed the price up. This began to transform market capitalization; for instance, companies which had split their shares witnessed 655% increased market capitalization. On the contrary, companies which did not split their shares noticed only 46% rise in market capitalization. From July 2009 to December 2010 the role of total MC were 81.5% of companies which adopted share uniform and only18.5% those that did not adopt. (Khaled, 2011) Trade in Pre-IPO Placement Private placement or Pre-IPO placement is the process by which Issuer Company sells shares to a selected number of investors without having to register with BSEC. In such kind of placement, companies doesn’t require to disclose detailed financial information. Although in Europe and America, there are certain guidelines for private placement, in Bangladesh BSEC didn’t have such regulations. Consequently, underwriters used it as device of manipulation. In the most of the cases the placement was offered at less than IPO price. According to Khaled (2011), eight companies issued convertible preference shares in 2009 & 10 in which average 69% went for placement. So, participation of the public was hindered and that created placement trade or Kerb market. Some companies distributed 50-90 percent of their paid up capital in private placement. As a result, the number of free floating shares decreased as companies went for more private placement of shares. Accordingly, difference between demand & supply push share prices up, as private placement doesn’t require any registration with BSEC, many non-listed companies drain off huge investment from capital market.
  • 7. Misuse of Omnibus Accounts An omnibus account is a stock holding account that involves more than 10,000 investors. Although, actual shareholders, individual investors don't have the accounts in their names Omnibus accounts were another major device of manipulation. In Bangladesh, ICB has 9 omnibus accounts and each merchant banks have only one omnibus account. According to Khaled (2011), at least Tk 2.5 billion has been traded from hidden or omnibus accounts used as a major tool of stock market manipulation. The syndicate players of the Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB) traded Tk 2.3 billion from nine omnibus accounts of the ICB alone. The probe report published the name of 30 big players including ICB for a lot of suspicious transactions and says most manipulators traded from the omnibus accounts. Most big players chose omnibus accounts to gamble in the market, as it's not possible to find out issue-wise or client-wise transactions of actual number of shares from omnibus accounts. Faulty Asset Revaluation The revaluation of a company’s assets to take account of inflation or changes in value since the assets was acquired. The change in value is credited to the revaluation reserve account. With the collaboration of dishonest auditors, companies generated artificial audit reports in which assets were shown overvalued. As a result, when calculating Net Asset Value (NAV) based on this overvalued asset, it provided wrong signal about the company’s true financial capabilities. Moreover, those companies issued bonus shares showing unrealized gain of revalued asset price which is a faulty accounting practice. Although, companies are required to maintain provision against “deferred tax” during asset revaluation to pay tax in future, companies did not follow it. Investigation reports pointed some companies which got NAV more than 100% to 3,472% after asset revaluation. Irregularities in Book Building Method Book building method is the globally recognized technique of determining the offer price of IPO. In this process, the fair price is obtained from the demand of a BSECurity from institution investors and their indicative price through road shows. T he motivation for introducing this method in Bangladesh stock market was to attract more firms for enlisting in the stock exchanges through fair share pricing. However, it was found as an instrument of manipulating
  • 8. market prices, Investors obtained too high price for the Security through the price discovery stage and offloaded those stocks after the lock in period. As a result they pulled out a lot of profit within a short period and after that the share price did not increase. In this process corrupted Issuer and issue manager manipulated the price. Lack of knowledge of small investor Most of the investor of our capital market are small investor. And we have seen many of them have lack of proper knowledge about the market. They just buy a share to get profit after 3 days when the shares got matured. But how and why they are supposed to get a profit they dint know well. So when market goes decline the investors are supposed to wait and not to sell in loss. But they got panicked and sold off their share in loss even. So this attitude prolonged the market to go in bearish situation. December Closing of Financial Institutions The market crash happened at the end of November and December. It was the time closing for many of the financial institution. So institutions, who had investments in the market, started to pack their profit into their bag. So lots of profit taking took place in that time. It influenced the market to go in the bearish too. Serial and Artificial Trading Some manipulators created artificial active trading environment among themselves through bulk transaction and increased share prices. Moreover serial trading and price manipulation by many buy-sell orders through different accounts and broker houses which overheated the market. Issue of Right and Preference Shares Right share indicates issuing new shares to the existing shareholders at a discount price. The issuance of right share increase number of share which should decrease share price but it did not happen. Mysteriously, it took BSEC five months to come to a decision regarding right issue proposal. Preference share are the share which contain fixed percentage of dividend at cost of voting right. Issuer companies provide an option to convert into general shares to make
  • 9. it more attractive and it is called Convertible Preference Share. However, in Bangladesh, companies issue preference share for only 1-3 moths which is very unusual. BSEC also didn’t have proper guidelines for Preference Share issuance. Suspicious Transaction of Top Players During the time of unusual ups and downs in the index, some individual and institutional investors did many suspicious trading revealed by probe report. These investors are main reasons for the capital market crash; they with collaboration with government high-ups and regulators manipulated stock prices. Block Placement There was a lot of suspicious block trading of mutual funds. Some investors got enormous amount of placement time to time. Direct Listing With the approval of BSEC few companies have been directly listed in the stock exchange. These companies come to the market with inflated share prices. Investigation report mentioned that indicative prices of these companies were determined even 58 times more than EPS and 9 times of NAV. Though share prices of these types of directly listed companies have been artificially determined, but BSEC or exchanges did not investigate the reason of abnormal price.

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