Page  Turkey: Mapping the Future in a New World Order Mert Yildiz Economist – Emerging Europe and Middle East RENAISSANCE ...
Mert Yildiz Economist Emerging Europe and Middle East January 2012 myildiz @rencap.com +44 207 367 7735 Frontier, emerging...
World sovereign credit rating - 2000 Page  Source: S&P,   Renaissance Capital
World sovereign credit rating - 2011 Page  Source: S&P,   Renaissance Capital
World GDP - 2000 Page  Source: IMF,   Renaissance Capital
World GDP - 2011 Page  Source: IMF,   Renaissance Capital
Turkey – past 10 years Page  Average GDP growth in real TRY Source: IMF,   Renaissance Capital
Turkey – past 20 years Page  Average GDP growth in real TRY Source: IMF,   Renaissance Capital
Turkey – past 30 years Page  Average GDP growth in real TRY Source: IMF,   Renaissance Capital
Turkey – past 30 years Page  Average GDP growth in real TRY Source: IMF,   Renaissance Capital
Turkey – past 30 years Page  Average GDP growth in nominal USD Source: IMF,   Renaissance Capital
Turkey – past 30 years Page  EM/DM grew faster than Turkey in the past 30 years but it did   not feel that way due to FX a...
Wealth at the expense of savings Page  Yes, Turkey did get richer… …  but at the expense of lower   savings. Source: IMF, ...
Greatest hits 2001 - 2011 Page  Turkey finally achieved price stability. The   banking sector was restructured. Source: Tu...
Greatest hits 2001 - 2011 Page  More business friendly Turkey … …  which led to higher FDI. Source: World   Bank,   Renais...
Greatest hits 2001 - 2011 Page  Composition of exports went from low technology to medium technology goods. Source: Turkst...
Greatest hits 2001 - 2011 Page  Government’s budget deficit declined... … but the private sector’s went up. Source: Treasu...
Greatest hits 2001 - 2011 Page  Debt   changed hands externally… … and internally. Source: Treasury,   Renaissance Capital...
The truth about growth Page  GDP =  f  ( Capital   + Labor + Total factor productivity ) Source: Turkstat,   Renaissance C...
Next 1-3 years Page  Turkey grows when there is liquidity, contracts when there is none. Source: Turkstat, IMF,   Renaissa...
Next 1-3 years Page  Households have relatively low debt   and   low mortgage/GDP ratio. Source: National sources,   Renai...
Next 1-3 years Page  Interest rates are extremely   low. Fair value At 1.89,   USDTRY is close to fair value. Source: CBT,...
Next 1-3 years Page  There is middle class emerging... … which will need houses   to live in. Source: Turkstat,   Renaissa...
Next 1-3 years Page  CBT’s keeping effective rates in a band... … while managing the currency. Source: CBT,   Renaissance ...
After 3 years... Page  Current account balance   = Investments - Savings Source: World   Bank, IMF,   World Economic Forum...
World current account balance 2011 Page  Source: IMF,   Renaissance Capital
Page  This Communication is for information purposes only. The Communication does not form a fiduciary relationship or con...
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Turkey GRI 2012 - KEYNOTE PRESENTATION

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Turkey GRI 2012 - KEYNOTE PRESENTATION

  1. 1. Page Turkey: Mapping the Future in a New World Order Mert Yildiz Economist – Emerging Europe and Middle East RENAISSANCE CAPITAL
  2. 2. Mert Yildiz Economist Emerging Europe and Middle East January 2012 myildiz @rencap.com +44 207 367 7735 Frontier, emerging and converging markets Turkey: Mapping the future in a new world order
  3. 3. World sovereign credit rating - 2000 Page Source: S&P, Renaissance Capital
  4. 4. World sovereign credit rating - 2011 Page Source: S&P, Renaissance Capital
  5. 5. World GDP - 2000 Page Source: IMF, Renaissance Capital
  6. 6. World GDP - 2011 Page Source: IMF, Renaissance Capital
  7. 7. Turkey – past 10 years Page Average GDP growth in real TRY Source: IMF, Renaissance Capital
  8. 8. Turkey – past 20 years Page Average GDP growth in real TRY Source: IMF, Renaissance Capital
  9. 9. Turkey – past 30 years Page Average GDP growth in real TRY Source: IMF, Renaissance Capital
  10. 10. Turkey – past 30 years Page Average GDP growth in real TRY Source: IMF, Renaissance Capital
  11. 11. Turkey – past 30 years Page Average GDP growth in nominal USD Source: IMF, Renaissance Capital
  12. 12. Turkey – past 30 years Page EM/DM grew faster than Turkey in the past 30 years but it did not feel that way due to FX appreciation. Source: IMF, Renaissance Capital Source: CBT, Renaissance Capital
  13. 13. Wealth at the expense of savings Page Yes, Turkey did get richer… … but at the expense of lower savings. Source: IMF, Renaissance Capital Source: IMF, Renaissance Capital
  14. 14. Greatest hits 2001 - 2011 Page Turkey finally achieved price stability. The banking sector was restructured. Source: Turkstat, Renaissance Capital Source: CBT, Renaissance Capital
  15. 15. Greatest hits 2001 - 2011 Page More business friendly Turkey … … which led to higher FDI. Source: World Bank, Renaissance Capital Source: Treasury, Renaissance Capital
  16. 16. Greatest hits 2001 - 2011 Page Composition of exports went from low technology to medium technology goods. Source: Turkstat, Renaissance Capital
  17. 17. Greatest hits 2001 - 2011 Page Government’s budget deficit declined... … but the private sector’s went up. Source: Treasury, Renaissance Capital Source: Treasury, IMF, Renaissance Capital
  18. 18. Greatest hits 2001 - 2011 Page Debt changed hands externally… … and internally. Source: Treasury, Renaissance Capital Source: World Bank, Renaissance Capital
  19. 19. The truth about growth Page GDP = f ( Capital + Labor + Total factor productivity ) Source: Turkstat, Renaissance Capital
  20. 20. Next 1-3 years Page Turkey grows when there is liquidity, contracts when there is none. Source: Turkstat, IMF, Renaissance Capital
  21. 21. Next 1-3 years Page Households have relatively low debt and low mortgage/GDP ratio. Source: National sources, Renaissance Capital Source: CBT, Turkstat, Renaissance Capital
  22. 22. Next 1-3 years Page Interest rates are extremely low. Fair value At 1.89, USDTRY is close to fair value. Source: CBT, Renaissance Capital Source: Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital
  23. 23. Next 1-3 years Page There is middle class emerging... … which will need houses to live in. Source: Turkstat, Renaissance Capital Source: Turkstat, Renaissance Capital
  24. 24. Next 1-3 years Page CBT’s keeping effective rates in a band... … while managing the currency. Source: CBT, Renaissance Capital Source: CBT, Renaissance Capital
  25. 25. After 3 years... Page Current account balance = Investments - Savings Source: World Bank, IMF, World Economic Forum, Renaissance Capital
  26. 26. World current account balance 2011 Page Source: IMF, Renaissance Capital
  27. 27. Page This Communication is for information purposes only. The Communication does not form a fiduciary relationship or constitute advice and is not and should not be construed as a recommendation or an offer or a solicitation of an offer of securities or related financial instruments, or an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity, and cannot be relied upon as a representation that any particular transaction necessarily could have been or can be effected at the stated price. The Communication is not an advertisement of securities nor independent investment research, and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Opinions expressed therein may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by other business areas or groups of the Renaissance Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. All such information is subject to change without notice, and neither Renaissance Capital nor any of its subsidiaries or affiliates is under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained in the Communication or in any other medium. Descriptions of any company or issuer or their securities or the markets or developments mentioned in the Communication are not intended to be complete. The Communication should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment as the Communication has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. The application of taxation laws depends on an investor’s individual circumstances and, accordingly, each investor should seek independent professional advice on taxation implications before making any investment decision. The Communication has been compiled or arrived at based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified, is provided on an ‘as is’ basis and no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness, reliability, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose of such information, except with respect to information concerning Renaissance Capital, its subsidiaries and affiliates. All statements of opinion and all projections, forecasts, or statements relating to expectations regarding future events or the possible future performance of investments represent Renaissance Capital’s own assessment and interpretation of information available to them currently.   The Communication is not intended for distribution to the public and may be confidential. It may not be reproduced, redistributed or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose without the written permission of Renaissance Capital, and neither Renaissance Capital nor any of its affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. The information may not be used to create any financial instruments or products or any indices. Neither Renaissance Capital and its affiliates, nor their directors, representatives, or employees accept any liability for any direct or consequential loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the Communication. © 2011 Renaissance Securities (Cyprus) Limited. All rights reserved. Regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (Licence No: KEPEY 053/04).

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