Richard Feeley presentation on ocean acidification

OCEAN ACIDIFICATION
The Other CO2 Problem
Outline
Overview ofocean acidification science
Results of ocean acidification surveys
What are the potential biological impacts?
Where do we go from here?
Richard A. Feely, Ph.D.
NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission Workshop
August 12, 2010

Atmospheric accumulation
234 Pg C
(46%)
Land-use change
160 Pg C
(31%)
Terrestrial sink
147 Pg C
(29%)
Fossil emission
348 Pg C
(69%)
Ocean sink
127 Pg C
(25%)
Cumulative carbon sources and sinks over the last two centuries
SINKS
SOURCES
Ocean CO2 Chemistry
Global Carbon Project (2008) Carbon Budget and trends 2007, www.globalcarbonproject.org, 26 September 2008

Rates of increase are important
Ocean CO2 Chemistry
atmospheric CO2
global temperature
Hoegh-Guldberget al. 2007, Science

CO2 emissions (GtC/yr)
Atmospheric CO2
concentration (ppm)
IPCC TAR Emission Profiles from Pre-Industrial Levels
Ocean CO2 Chemistry
Turley (2006)
Drivers for a change in energy policy

Saturation State
[
]
[
]
+
-
2
2
Ca
CO
3
=
W
*
K
phase
sp
,
phase
Saturation State
Ocean CO2 Chemistry
W
>
=
1
precipitation
calcium carbonate
calcium
carbonate
W
=
=
1
equilibrium
W
<
=
1
dissolution

Field Observations
Ocean CO2 Chemistry
WOCE/JGOFS/OACES Global CO2 Survey
~72,000 sample locations collected in the 1990s
DIC ± 2 µmol kg-1
TA ± 4 µmol kg-1
Sabine et al. (2004)

Observed aragonite & calcite saturation depths
Ocean CO2 Chemistry
Feely et al. (2004)
The aragonite saturation state migrates towards the surface at the rate of 1-2 m yr-1, depending on location.

pH distribution in surface waters
from the NCAR CCSM3 model projections using the IPCC A2 CO2 Emission Scenarios
Projections
pH
warm water corals
deep water corals
Feely, Doney and Cooley, Oceanography (2009)

Natural processes that could accelerate the ocean acidification of coastal waters
Projections
brings high CO2, low pH, low Ω, low O2 water to surface
CoastalUpwelling

NACP West Coast Survey Cruise
11 May – 14 June 2007
Newport
Aberdeen
UCLA
MBARI

Seasonal invasion of corrosive waters on west coast North America

NACP West Coast Survey Cruise
11 May – 14 June 2007
Vertical sections from Line 5 (Pt. St. George, California)
....
sample locations
Feely et al. (2008)
The ‘ocean acidified’ corrosive water was upwelled from depths of 150-200 m onto the shelf and outcropped at the surface near the coast.

North American Carbon Program
Continental carbon budgets, dynamics, processes & management
surface
120m
Aragonite saturation state in west coast waters

Summer 2008 transect: Coast to Hood Canal
Lower pH and lower saturation
states in subsurface waters of Hood Canal than along the Washington Coast
Feely et al. (2010)

Potential impacts: marine organisms & ecosystems
Changes to:
Fitness and survival
Species biogeography
Key biogeochemical cycles
Food webs
Reduced:
Sound Absorption
Homing Ability
Recruitment and Settlement
Reduced calcification rates
Significant shift in key nutrient and trace element speciation
Shift in phytoplankton diversity
Reduced growth, production and life span of adults, juveniles & larvae
Reduced tolerance to other environmental fluctuations
Uncertainties great
RESEARCH REQUIRED
Changes to ecosystems & their services

Experiments on many scales
Biosphere 2 (provided by Mark Eakin)
Aquaria & small mesocosms
SHARQ
Submersible Habitat for Analyzing Reef Quality

Major planktoniccalcifers
extant species
mineralform
generation time
Coccolithophores
~ 200
calcite
days
algae
Foraminifera
~ 30
weeks
calcite
protists
Pteropods
~ 32
months to year?
aragonite
snails

Coccolithopores
Single-cell algae
manipulation of CO2 system by addition of HCl or NaOH
pCO2
280-380 ppmv
780-850 ppmv
Emiliania huxleyi
Gephyrocapsa oceanica
Calcification decreased
- 45%
- 9 to 18%
Riebesell et al.(2000); Zondervan et al.(2001)

Formanifera
single-celled protists
-4 to -8% decline in calcification at pCO2= 560 ppm
-6 to -14% decline in calcification at pCO2= 780 ppm
Bijma et al. (2002)
Shell mass is positively correlated with [CO32-]

Shelled pteropods
planktonic snails
Whole shell:
Clio pyramidata
Arag. rods exposed
Prismatic layer
(1 µm) peels back
Respiratory CO2 forced ΩA <1
Shells of live animals start to dissolve within 48 hours
Aperture (~7 µm):
advanced dissolution
Normal shell: nodissolution
Orr et al. (2005)

Potential Economic Impacts
4
$4B primary commercial sales in 2007 fed a $70B industry, adding $35B to GNP
Varying regional importance of fishery groups calls for local adaptation
Total consequences could be far-reaching for ecosystems and marine-dependent societies
1.5
Uninfluenced
Predators
Crustaceans (crabs, etc)
Bivalves (oysters, etc.)
3
1
Billions of U.S. $
2
0.5
1
0
0
U.S.
NewEngl.
Mid-Atl.
Gulf
Pac.
HI
AK
Cooley & Doney, 2009

Mussels & oysters
Mytilusedulis& Crassostreagigas
Decrease in calcification rates for the both species
Significant with pCO2 increase and [CO32-] decrease
At pCO2 740 ppmv:
25% decrease in calcification for mussels
10% decrease in calcification for oysters
Gazeau et al., 2007

Bivalve juveniles
Hard shell clam Mercenaria
0.3 mm newly settled clams
Massive dissolution within 24 hours in undersaturated water; shell gone within 2 weeks
Dissolution causes mortality in estuaries & coastal habitats
Common in soft bottom habitats

Potential food web impacts
Coccolithophores
ARCOD@ims.uaf.edu
Copepods
Barrie Kovish
Pacific Salmon
V. Fabry
Vicki Fabry
Pteropods

15%
60%
63%
Diet of juvenile salmon
Pteropod
Impacts of increasing pCO2 on nearly 100% of prey types are unknown
Barrie Kovish
Food web impacts
Vicki Fabry
Armstrong et al., 2005

Marine Fish impacts
Barrie Kovish
Vicki Fabry

Impacts Scorecard
Response to increasing CO2
# species
studied
coccolithophores
planktonicformanifera
mollusks
echinoderms
tropical corals
corraline red algae
4 2 1 1 1
2 2 - - -
4 4 - - -
2 2 - - -
11 11 - - -
1 1 - - -
calcification
coccolithophores
prokaryotes
seagrass
2 - 2 2 -
2 - 1 1 -
5 - 5 - -
photo-synthesis
nitrogen fixation
1 - 1 - -
cyanobacteria
Barrie Kovish
4 4 - - -
1 1 - - -
Vicki Fabry
repro-duction
mollusks
echinoderms
Doneyet al., 2009

Winners & Losers
Sea-grass shoot density
epiphytic
CaCO3
Differing pH levels in Mediterranean CO2 vents off Ischia Island (pH 8.17 to 6.57)
Hall-Spencer et al. Nature (2008)

Ischia CO2 vents
Variation in pH & species abundance
Hall-Spencer et al. Nature (2008)
Live Patella caerulea and Hexaplextrunculus (gastropods) showing severely eroded, pitted shells in areas of minimum pH7.4
Tipping point at around 7.8 or even higher
How do you differentiate between a threshold and new regime?
Different “pH Tipping Points” for different species?

Pacific Northwest oyster emergency
Willapa Bay
seed crisis
Failure of larval oyster recruitments in recent years
Commercial oyster hatchery failures threatens $100M industry (3000 Jobs)
Low pH “upwelled” waters a possible leading factor in failures
Larval oyster may be “canary in goldmine” for near-shore acidification?

Upwelling favorable winds
Winds from S
Coastal upwelling linked to high mortality events
Higher
salinity
Lower
salinity
High mortality
High survival
High Ωarag
Saturation (Ωarag)
Low Ωarag
Figure courtesy of Alan Barton

NOAA OA Research Implementation Plan
Monitor trends
Ecosystem responses
Model changes & responses
Develop adaptation strategies
Conduct education and outreach

Importance of Moorings
Preliminary results show a clear seasonal trend in pH and a strong correlation with pCO2
Note: pH scale is reversed
2007 – 1st OA mooring in Gulf of Alaska at Papa Station
First ocean acidification mooring Gulf of Alaska at Station Papa - 2007
Collaboration and coordination across international, federal and state agencies is vital.

Biological impacts & sensitivity to CO2 perturbations
Much of our present knowledge stems from…
abrupt CO2/pH perturbation experiments
with single species/strains
under short-term incubations
with often extreme pH changes
Hence, we know little about…
responses of genetically diverse populations
synergistic effects with other stress factors
physiological and micro-evolutionary adaptations
species replacements
community to ecosystem responses
impacts on global climate change
-Provided by Ulf Riebesell, 2006

Omnibus Land Management Act of 2009
2009
Introduced June & November 2007
Senate Bill
passed
House Billpassed
Federal Ocean Acidification Research and Monitoring Acto of 2009 (H.R. 146)
Presidentsigned

Since the beginning of the industrial age surface ocean pH (~0.1), carbonate ion concentrations (~16%), and aragonite and calcite saturation states (~16%) have been decreasing because of the uptake of anthropogenic CO2by the oceans, i.e., ocean acidification. By the end of this century pH could have a further decrease by as much as 0.3-0.4 pH units.
Possible responses of ecosystems are speculative but could involve changes in species composition & abundances - could affect food webs, biogeochemical cycles. More research on impacts and vulnerabilities is needed.
An observational network for ocean acidification is under development. Modeling studies need to be expanded into coastal regions. Physiological response, mitigation and adaptation studies need to be developed and integrated with the models.
Conclusions

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Richard Feeley presentation on ocean acidification

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