Saudi Arabia: crying out for reform

Emma 日期： 2011/03/08 Crying out for reform Saudi Arabia

Abdul-Aziz bin Saud founded Saudi Arabia, leaving subsequent heirs in charge Historical Overview Abdullah bin Abdul-Aziz crowned king

Abdullah is aging; his successors seem less-than-promising Royal Family People kind of like me! But I’m slow to carry out reform and cancer-ridden… who’s next in line to rule the nation? I’ll do it, half-brother! But I think I might have dementia… I’m also greedy. Oh, and I can’t remember my own age. Well, I guess I’m next. But don’t expect to see much reform while I’m in power. I hate change. King Abdullah, “king of the people” (age 87) Crown Prince Sultan, defense minister (age 83-86) Prince Navef, Minister of Interior (age 77)

In contrast to the aging regime, a growing number of the Saudi population are young, educated, globally aware… and unemployed Demographics Total Saudi Arabian population: 27.1 million 70% of which are under age 30 Unemployment Rate: 10.8% (almost 3 million people) … for women ages 25-29: 45.5% Governmental funds for education in 2011 : SR150 billion (US$40 billion) 26% of the country’s budget

Demographics Great divide exists among demographic groups in terms of employment opportunities and wages Average monthly salary of Saudi youth: 3,000 riyals (US $830 , NT $24,348 ) … meanwhile, princes’ salaries are in the hundreds of thousands. Citizens vs. Royal Family Men vs. Women Nationals vs. Non-Nationals

Highly religious, traditional Saudi regime’s policies leave very little room for self-expression Policies According to the Shari’a…

Disenchanted Saudis use Facebook as a vehicle to gather like-minded citizens, publicize their demands, and push for change Social Media If the government fails to respond to and address these demands, the people will revolt on March 11 at Riyadh on Olaya St. As of 3/4/11. Two days prior, membership was at 8,528.

Three petitions directed at the Saudi regime and detailing reform demands have circulated over the Internet Petitions Toward the State of Rights and Institution http://dawlaty.info Signed by 1,554 people. Blocked in Saudi Arabia by the government a few days after its launch. So, what do they want? Constitutional monarchy, a government for the people, equal treatment, employment, better job prospects Feb. 23 Youth http://hasantalk.com/?p=492 Mainly signed by journalists and cyber activists. Led by Mahmoud Sabbagh. A Declaration of National Reform http://www.saudireform.com/ Most detailed statement thus far, mostly signed by known “liberals” in Saudi society. Blocked in Saudi Arabia as of 2/28/11.

Uprisings are spreading rapidly on all borders and have already spanned 14 nations across Northern Africa and the Middle East Regional Unrest

Neighboring nations Oman and Bahrain, which recently saw its first series of protests, share several similar attributes with Saudi Arabia Protesting neighbors Saudi Arabia Bahrain Oman GDP per person 22.9 24 23.3 Total population 26.2 million 807 thousand 2.9 million Population under age 25 50.8% 43.9% 51.5% Government Absolute Monarchy Constitutional Monarchy Absolute Monarchy Monarch’s reign King Abdullah, since 2005 King Hamad, since 1999 Sultan Qaboos, since 1970 Monarch’s overall image Honest, uncorrupt Reformative Main Religion Islam Islam Islam Shi’ite population 10-15% 60-70% 15% Unemployment Rate 10.8% (as of 2010) 15% (as of 2005) 15% (as of 2004) Main Export Oil, gas Oil Signs of discontent Slow governmental reform, unemployment, some corruption Heavy governmental discrimination against Shia majority, slow reform, mistrust Unemployment, uncertainty about monarch’s succession

The lesson to be learned from the Tunisian, Egyptian and other upheavals — which, it is important to note, were not animated by anti-American fervor or by extremist Islamic zeal — is that Arab governments can no longer afford to take their populations for granted, or to assume that they will remain static and subdued . Nor can the soothing instruments of yesteryear, which were meant to appease, serve any longer as substitutes for meaningful reform. The winds of change are blowing across our region with force, and it would be folly to suppose that they will soon dissipate.
Desire for change Sweeping reform in Saudi Arabia is desired by both “the people” and royal family members alike “ ” Prince Alwaleed bin Talal bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud , Saudi Arabia's founding king's grandson

Growing protests The latest updates in Saudi Arabia foretell mounting unrest, discontent with the government and a desire for more equality, as well as a very tense monarchy that is ready to retaliate February 28, 2011 (Source: saudiwoman.wordpress.com)

It appears inevitable that the Saudis will revolt sooner than later. Why?
Signs of discontent regarding waning employment opportunities, a lack of accountability among the ruling family, and unequal rights for certain population groups have already started surfacing in the form of online petitions, Facebook groups, and rallies.
The moment is opportune and the “domino effect” seems to be taking its course in the Middle East.
Uncertainty looms heavily over whether the aging royal family can effectively and efficiently address the strong demands of their majority youth population , many of whom are well-educated and globally connected via the Internet and firsthand educational experiences abroad.
Conclusion Greater, faster reform is imperative if the royal family hopes to maintain stability and remain in power for a long time coming; otherwise, future protests appear inevitable

Basic Law (est. 1992)
Saudi Arabia is a monarchy ruled by male heirs of Abdul-Aziz bin Saud
Nation governed by Islamic law, or Shari’a. It’s also governed by a very strict form of Islam called wahabism.
Saudi Arabia is the birthplace of Muhammad the prophet, founder of Islam
It’s also home to two holy cities, Mecca and Medina
Appendix History: Basic Law, Muhammad, Islam

In 2006, the Allegiance Council was established
Consists of male heirs of King Abdulaziz
States that all future Saudi kings must be elected by a secret vote within the council
According to the WikiLeaks cables, Abdullah has placed restrictions on royal family spending, but Crown Prince Sultan opposes them
Sultan is said to make money on every defense contract ever executed by Saudi Arabia
Like Abdullah, Sultan went to NYC to receive medical treatment
Prince Nayef is said to be one of the most conservative forces in the ruling family
Shortly before his promotion last year, Nayef stated that he saw no need for female lawmakers or elections
Released statement on Saturday promising to “take all measures necessary to prevent protests”
Appendix Royal Family: Elections, King Abdullah, Crown Prince Sultan, Prince Nayef

Saudi Arabia’s educational system emphasizes religion
It is difficult to reform because the clerics are involved in policy decisions; attempts to change the system would involve a power struggle between reformists and religious clergy
Less emphasis on science, engineering, and other technical fields
Schools are gender-segregated, for the most part
Curriculum in girls’ schools focuses on how to be good housewives and mothers
Government recently opened two new colleges for girls offering majors such as information systems, interior design, and special education, but women first need guardian’s permission before declaring majors and may have trouble finding work in their area of expertise after graduation
King Abdullah Scholarship Fund
Allows students to study abroad in the U.S., Europe, and other Middle East nations
Over 100,000 scholarship recipients already
Appendix Education & Unemployment: Religion, Gender-segregation, Education Abroad

Appendix Education & Unemployment: Charts

Citizens vs. Royals
In 2008, the Minister of Social Affairs released a statement that 1.5 million Saudis live under the poverty line
Meanwhile, it is estimated that the royal family allocates up to $10 billion/year to personal expenses
WikiLeaks cables from Nov. 1996 by Jeddah officials detail extravagant parties thrown by royal family members involving liquor and prostitution
Drinking in public prohibited by Islamic law
Nationals vs. Non-Nationals
Currently, 8.7 million non-nationals work in Saudi Arabia
It is harder for private sector companies to fire Saudi nationals because they are entitled to certain rights; Saudis also typically demand higher wages, whereas non-nationals are willing to work longer hours for lower wages and live in small rooms that company provides
Recently, royal family proposed a plan that will limit private sector companies in their hiring of foreign workers, but will take years for the plan to fully go into effect
Appendix Demographics: Citizens vs. Royals, Nationals vs. Non-Nationals

Men vs. Women
55% of college graduates are women, but only 5% are in the workforce
Private sector companies are less-inclined to hire women, most likely due to gender-segregation laws
Women prohibited from becoming judges and rarely ever hold high-level positions
Hospital jobs and other positions requiring them to be in gender-mixed positions may be discouraged or forbidden by many families and ruin marriage prospects
More women than men are graduating from Saudi universities
Saudi Arabia ranked 25 in the world for female participation in education
Appendix Demographics: Men vs. Women

Sentiment towards monarch
Abdullah thought of as “king of the people,” one who fights corruption
Sultan Qaboos of Oman thought of as a reformative leader who brought the nation out of poverty
Main religion
Important because all nations use Islamic principles to form their federal law systems, although Bahrain’s and Oman’s are less extreme than Saudi Arabia’s (they use a combination of secular and religious principles for policy-making)
Shi’ite population
Different in Oman because their majority (75%) are Ibadi, which is the earliest Muslim sect; a majority of their political system are Ibadi
In Bahrain, protests erupted from the Shi’ite minority, who wanted more recognition from the Sunni government, who has ruled for 200 years; this may not be the case for Oman and Saudi Arabia, however
Appendix Bahrain & Oman: Sentiment Towards Monarch, Religion, Shi’ite Population

Unemployment rate
Saudi Arabia’s unemployment number only accounts for men
60% of Oman’s workforce are non-nationals
Other points for consideration
None of these nations have a history of violence
Like King Abdullah, King Hamad of Bahrain offered $2,650 to each Bahraini family to try to appease Shi’ite public and Sultan Qaboos offered 50,000 new jobs, a $390 monthly stipend to people out of work, and increased the minimum wage from $364 to $520. Citizens still revolted—demanded change in governmental structure.
Like Saudi Arabia, Omani citizens are devoted to their king. Some slogans from their recent protests include, “We don’t want to be like Tunisia, where I hear a lot of things were destroyed,” “We will sacrifice our blood, our soul, for you, your majesty!”, “I hope His Majesty can transform this country from its present status quo to a democratic country. He has taken great steps, but his steps could have been faster.”
Appendix Bahrain & Oman: Unemployment Rate, Other Significant Points

March 7, 2011- Saudi officials released a Shia cleric who was arrested last month for calling for a constitutional monarchy in the kingdom after Shias protested in Qatif (eastern city)
March 8, 2011- The U.S. supports Saudis’ right to protest peacefully
Appendix Latest Updates in Saudi Arabia (as of 3/9/11)

Saudi Arabia: crying out for reform

by Emma Tzeng

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