Japan\'s got the power! ...literally

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An overview and analysis of Japan post-tsunami power supply outlook.

(Presented on 3/17/2011 at Fuh Hwa Security Investment Trust, Taipei, Taiwan)

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  • Important to note that Japan lacks natural oil resources, so for the past few decades, they have been trying to reduce dependency on oil by building more nuclear reactors. To date, they have 54 reactors total and had at least a dozen more planned for construction by 2030. Nuclear preferred because it doesn’t omit CO2/contribute to global warming; however, the danger in Japan right now is that the reactors in the nuclear power plants are going to overheat and send off chemicals into the air that could cause serious disease such as cancer.
  • Not able to find exact percentages for other types of thermal energy, though there are reports of at least five thermal-fired power plants that have halted operations due to Tohoku Pacific Earthquake. 74 GW of the 177 GW of thermal power is natural gas/LNG, 46 is coal, 57 is oil. 11 nuclear reactors in 3 plants shut down after earthquake Fukushima No. 1 and No. 2, operated by TEPCO Onagawa nuclear power plant, operated by Tohoku Electric Power Tokai No. 2, operated by Japan Atomic Power http://www.geni.org/globalenergy/library/national_energy_grid/japan/japanesenationalelectricitygrid.shtml National Trunk Line Connections: Western part of Japan can’t send electricity to the east bc of the different electricity frequencies
  • Fukushima Daiichi is significant bc that is the power plant that has been experiencing issues with its reactors.
  • TEPCO said as of March 15 that it has a power capacity of 3.3 GW, but this only accounts for 1.4% of the total power loss in the nation. Goldman Sachs expects 30% of TEPCO’s nuclear capacity to be operational in FY3/12 and 50% in FY3/13. Some analysts have speculated that Japan may turn to natural gas and coal in the near future to replace shortage in power supply because they are cheaper than oil.
  • http://www.google.com/crisisresponse/japanquake2011.html 3/17 update: Tohoku canceled 2 blackouts in Yamagata and Sendai area (northeast area, near Fukushima) but is most likely because the demand for electricity isn’t as high as originally predicted – most likely because all the houses have already been washed away. Some officials say blackouts may continue for several months.
  • Japan\'s got the power! ...literally

    1. 1. Emma 日期: 2011/03/17 … literally. Japan’s got the power!
    2. 2. Japan uses three main sources of power to generate electricity—hydroelectric, thermal, and nuclear Power Sources But what does this mean? Hydroelectric Thermal Nuclear Water ~ 8% Natural Gas (30%), Coal (25%), Oil (7%) ~ 62% Nuclear fuels ~ 29%
    3. 3. Industry Damage As a result of the recent tsunami & quake, however, Japan is experiencing shortages in power supply Total power generation capacity 279 GW 7% loss in nuclear power 2-3% loss in coal power ~ 9-10% loss in power capacity After March 11… 49 GW nuclear power 177 GW thermal power 47 GW hydropower Generation capacity
    4. 4. Several power plants across the nation have shut down and are in need of further inspection and restoration before Japan can return to original power supply levels Total power generation capacity Japan’s Shut-in Thermal Plants black = oil blue = natural gas red = coal = shut-in as a result of quake Total shut-in nuclear capacity: 9.7 GW , or 19.9% of total nuclear capacity Total shut-in thermal capacity: 12.5 GW , or 6.9% of total nuclear capacity J-Power Regional Damage Sendai Akita Hachinohe Hirono Kashima Oi Higashi-Ogishima Shinsendai Haramachi Hitachinaka Noshiro
    5. 5. Power Frequencies Because of frequency disparities, the western regions are only able to supply limited amounts of electricity to the eastern regions Total power generation capacity Main impact zone It is estimated that the western region can only transfer 1GW to the east
    6. 6. Power Breakdown The major player in the Japanese power sector is Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) [9501] owns Fukushima Daiichi <ul><li>Provides about 40,000,000 kW of electricity </li></ul><ul><li>… But after the tsunami, can only provide 30,000,000 kW (25% shortfall) </li></ul><ul><li>Accounts for 31% of 54 nuclear reactors and supplies 32% of Japan’s total power usage </li></ul>
    7. 7. Power Speculations Questions over whether and when power plants will resume operations still loom, although predictions point to a 1.5% recovery Oi thermal reactor unit 2 (350 MW) & Higashi-Ogishima thermal unit 1 (1.0 GW) can be brought back “relatively quickly” Niigata No. 5 (110 MW) thermal plant, operated by Tohoku Electric Power , plans to resume operations in March Fukushima plants may not start operations until 2H3/13 ; could be required to undergo inspections by national and local governments to determine quake’s impact Resumption of operations at Yokosuka thermal plant may offset a loss of 2.27 GW in power
    8. 8. Blackouts In an effort to offset power shortage, Japanese authorities have begun implementing daily, 3-hour regional blackouts until late April at the earliest <ul><li>Tohoku-Electric Power </li></ul><ul><li>TEPCO </li></ul><ul><li>Hokkaido-Electric Power </li></ul><ul><li>Chubu-Electric Power </li></ul>Implemented by http://www.google.com/crisisresponse/japanquake2011.html … for most recent blackout schedules & updates
    9. 9. Conclusion We should expect to see an increase in non-nuclear forms of power, especially LNG, in the short- and long-term, as Japan fights to restore lost power supply to its eastern regions <ul><li>日本電力自發生地震以來 , 電力損失達 30GW, 為日本總發電量之 10% </li></ul><ul><li>東京電力管轄區 Tochigi  /  Ibaraki  /  Gunma  /  Chiba  /  Kanagawa  / Tokyo  /  Saitama  /  Yamanashi  /  Shizuoka , 為主要商業工業聚集區 , 損失電力達 10GW, 三月底前約可恢復 3.73GW, 約為日本總發電量之 1.5%; 目前東京電力發布限電計劃至 3/21, 尚不知 3/21 之後的限電計劃 </li></ul><ul><li>主要受災區域 , 為 TOHOKU 電力公司管轄區 , 部份地區取消限電 , 因 1. 該地區受災情形嚴重 , 電力需求弱 , 2. 水力發電供電增加 </li></ul><ul><li>Because coal has such little upside in comparison to LNG, we expect Japan to utilize more LNG in the near and long-term to offset the recent cuts in power supply, particularly nuclear-based forms </li></ul>
    10. 10. 4/27/11 Update Forecasted summer capacity is now at 52 GW from 46 GW while projected summer demand is still at 55 GW; the 3 GW deficit may result in decreased productivity for companies in the eastern region + 4 GW hydropower + 1.1 GW resumption of thermal plants + 0.2 + 0.8 GW in gas turbine generators (in July and August, respectively) ~ 6 GW of additional supply!
    11. 11. Appendix Types of electricity power in Japan <ul><li>Important to note that Japan lacks natural oil resources, so for the past few decades, they have been trying to reduce dependency on oil by building more nuclear reactors. To date, they have 54 reactors total and had at least a dozen more planned for construction by 2030. </li></ul><ul><li>74 GW of the 177 GW of thermal power is natural gas/LNG, 46 is coal, 57 is oil. </li></ul>
    12. 12. Appendix Breakdown of Electric Power Sources in Japan
    13. 13. Appendix Damage to power plants in Japan <ul><li>11 nuclear reactors in 3 plants shut down after earthquake </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fukushima No. 1 and No. 2, operated by TEPCO </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Onagawa nuclear power plant, operated by Tohoku Electric Power </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tokai No. 2, operated by Japan Atomic Power </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Goldman Sachs expects 30% of TEPCO’s nuclear capacity to be operational in FY3/12 and 50% in FY3/13 </li></ul><ul><li>TEPCO said that it has a power capacity of 3.3, but this only accounts for 1.4% of the total power loss in the nation </li></ul>
    14. 14. Appendix Breakdown of tsunami’s damage to power and utilities industries
    15. 15. Appendix TEPCO’s nuclear plants’ current status
    16. 16. Appendix TEPCO’s thermal plants now offline
    17. 17. Appendix Rolling Blackouts in Japan <ul><li>An official said the measure may continue for several months because quake-hit thermal plants are likely to take a long time to recover from the damage </li></ul>

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