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Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty
 

Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty

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Presentación en la Jornada “Proyectos europeos en eficiencia energética en la edificación”, Oviedo 25 de febrero 2013.

Presentación en la Jornada “Proyectos europeos en eficiencia energética en la edificación”, Oviedo 25 de febrero 2013.

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    Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty Presentation Transcript

    • Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 1/21IntroductionStrategic ModelStrategic Energy Systems Planningunder UncertaintyEmilio L. Cano1Javier M. Moguerza11Department of Statistics and Operations ResearchUniversity Rey Juan Carlos, SpainOviedo, 25 de febrero de 2013Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty
    • Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 2/21IntroductionStrategic ModelOutline1 IntroductionEnRiMa ProjectEnRiMa DSS2 Strategic ModelModel DescriptionEmilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty
    • Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 3/21IntroductionStrategic ModelEnRiMa ProjectEnRiMa DSSIntroductionThe overall objective of EnRiMa is to develop adecision-support system (DSS) for operators ofenergy-efficient buildings and spaces of publicuse.Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty
    • Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 4/21IntroductionStrategic ModelEnRiMa ProjectEnRiMa DSSEnRiMa DSSEmilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty
    • Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 5/21IntroductionStrategic ModelEnRiMa ProjectEnRiMa DSSDSS ArchitectureEmilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty
    • Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 6/21IntroductionStrategic ModelEnRiMa ProjectEnRiMa DSSScheme of the ModelsEnRiMaDSSStrategicModuleOperationalModuleStrategicDVsStrategicConstraintsUpper-LevelOperational DVsUpper-LevelEnergy-BalanceConstraintsLower-LevelEnergy-BalanceConstraintsLower-LevelOperational DVsEmilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty
    • Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 7/21IntroductionStrategic ModelModel DescriptionSummaryStrategic ModelEnRiMaDSSStrategicModuleOperationalModuleStrategicDVsStrategicConstraintsUpper-LevelOperational DVsUpper-LevelEnergy-BalanceConstraintsLower-LevelEnergy-BalanceConstraintsLower-LevelOperational DVsThe strategic model is used in order to makestrategic decisions concerning which technologies toinstall and/or de- commission in the long term. Itincludes a simplified version of operationalenergy-balance constraints.Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty
    • Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 8/21IntroductionStrategic ModelModel DescriptionSummaryEmbedded Operational ModelEnRiMaDSSStrategicModuleOperationalModuleStrategicDVsStrategicConstraintsUpper-LevelOperational DVsUpper-LevelEnergy-BalanceConstraintsLower-LevelEnergy-BalanceConstraintsLower-LevelOperational DVsThe model includes the realisation of short-termdecisions (t) that are scaled to a long-term period(p) through a representative profile (m).Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty
    • Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 9/21IntroductionStrategic ModelModel DescriptionSummarySymbolic Model SpecificationStrategic Decisionsxv,ai = xv ,a−1i − xdv,aixcvi = Gi ·a∈AAges(i,v)AGai · xv,ain∈NPur(k)hvk,n = 1. . .Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty
    • Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 10/21IntroductionStrategic ModelModel DescriptionSummarySymbolic Model Specification (cont.)Operational Decisionsi∈IGenzv,m,ti,k −i∈IGenyv,m,ti,k +n∈NPur(k)uv,m,tk,n −n∈NS(k)wv,m,tk,n+i∈IStorov,m,ti,k − riv,m,ti,k = Dv,m,tk · 1 −i∈IPUODvi,k · xcvi. . .Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty
    • Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 11/21IntroductionStrategic ModelModel DescriptionSummarySymbolic Model Specification (cont.)Strategic & Operational linkzv,m,ti,k ≤ DTm· AFv,m,ti · xcviOAvi,k · xcvi ≤ rv,m,ti,k ≤ OBvi,k · xcviuv,m,tk,n ≤ hvk,n · MEk,n · DTmEmilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty
    • Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 12/21IntroductionStrategic ModelModel DescriptionSummaryEnergy-dispatching Decision FlowMarketDemandPurchasesFictitiousGenerationTechnologiesStorageTechnologiesNKJISalesK yuuuwuwzqiqoqiEmilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty
    • Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 13/21IntroductionStrategic ModelModel DescriptionSummaryObjectiveminimizev∈V(1 + DR)PTv· PRv·i∈I (CI vi − SU vi ) · Gi · xivi +a∈AAges(i,v)CDv,ai · Gi · xdv,ai+a∈AAges(i,v)CM v,ai · Gi · xv,ai+m∈MDM m·t∈TTm(m,t)n∈NPur(k,n)PPv,m,tk,n · uv,m,tk,n −n∈NS(k,n)SPv,m,tk,n · wv,m,tk,n+i∈IGen ,k∈KOut(i,k)COvi,k · zv,m,ti,k +i∈ISto ,k∈KPo(i,k)COvi,k · rv,m,ti,kEmilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty
    • Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 14/21IntroductionStrategic ModelModel DescriptionSummaryScenario Tree213 4 68 9 10 12PT1= 0 PT2= 1 PT3= 2 PT4= 3 PT5= PT6= PT7= 4PT8= 1 PT9= 2 PT10= 3 PT11= PT12= PT13= 4PR1= 10 < PR2= PR3= PR4< 1PR5PR12571113PR6PR70 < PR8= PR9= PR10< 1PR11PR13First Stage Second Stage Third StageEmilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty
    • Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 15/21IntroductionStrategic ModelModel DescriptionSummaryIllustrative ExampleIn “Energy efficiency and risk management in public buildings: Strategic model forrobus planning”. Cano, Moguerza, Ermolieva, Ermoliev. Under revision.Main factsTwo-stage problem.Decision time horizon: 5 years.Only electricity demand, one supplier and twopossible technologies: PV and CHP.Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty
    • Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 16/21IntroductionStrategic ModelModel DescriptionSummaryIllustrative Example (cont.)Optimisation Result − Strategic DecisionsTechnology by YearCapacitytobeinstalled10203040502013 2014 2015 2016 2017CHP2013 2014 2015 2016 2017PV2013 2014 2015 2016 2017RTEOptimisation Result − Operational DecisionsYearOperationlevel501002013 2014 2015 2016 2017RTEPVTotal Cost65,212.56 EUREmilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty
    • Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 17/21IntroductionStrategic ModelModel DescriptionSummaryIllustrative Example (cont.)ScenariosinvCHP invPV operRTE operNG Demand Probabilitys1 -0.10 -0.05 0.10 0.03 0.10 0.20s2 -0.15 -0.10 0.10 0.05 0.05 0.20s3 -0.15 -0.08 0.12 0.03 0.10 0.20s4 -0.10 -0.05 0.06 0.03 0.05 0.20s5 -0.15 -0.08 0.12 0.05 0.10 0.20Model Cost (EUR)Deterministic Scenario 1 65,212.56Stochastic 62,668.65Stochastic | sol1 62,709.36Deterministic av. val 62,124.39Stochastic | sol2 InfeasibleValue of Stochastic Solution: 40.72.Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty
    • Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 18/21IntroductionStrategic ModelModel DescriptionSummaryDemo GUI prototypehttp://enrima.dsv.su.se/Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty
    • Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 19/21IntroductionStrategic ModelModel DescriptionSummarySummaryDSS for building operators. Integratedmodules: solver manager, scenario generator,user iterface.Strategic and operational decisions. Interactingwith each other.Stochastic Optimization as a tool to deal withuncertainty and manage risk.Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty
    • Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 20/21IntroductionStrategic ModelModel DescriptionSummaryAcknowledgementsThis work has been partially funded by the projects:Energy Efficiency and Risk Management in Public Buildings (EnRiMa) EC’s FP7project (number 260041)OPTIMOS3 (MTM2012-36163-C06-06)RIESGOS-CM (code S2009/ESP-1685)Emilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty
    • Jornada “Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energ´etica en la Edificaci´on” 21/21IntroductionStrategic ModelModel DescriptionSummaryDiscussionThanks for your attention !emilio.lopez@urjc.eshttp://www.enrima-project.euEmilio L. Cano Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty