Airline Market Overview
A perspective from the 30 to 120-seat segment
Airline Market Overview
A perspective from the 30 to...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
...
680 E-Jets
56 Airlines from 39 Countries
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Commercial aviation embraer day 2010 10_29

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Commercial aviation embraer day 2010 10_29

  1. 1. Airline Market Overview A perspective from the 30 to 120-seat segment Airline Market Overview A perspective from the 30 to 120-seat segment Oct/2010Oct/2010 Paulo Cesar de Souza e Silva Executive Vice President Airline Market Paulo Cesar de Souza e Silva Executive Vice President Airline Market
  2. 2. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent This presentation includes forward-looking statements or statements about events or circumstances which have not occurred. We have based these forward-looking statements largely on our current expectations and projections about future events and financial trends affecting our business and our future financial performance. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including, among other things: general economic, political and business conditions, both in Brazil and in our market. The words “believes,” “may,” “will,” “estimates,” “continues,” “anticipates,” “intends,” “expects” and similar words are intended to identify forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligations to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements because of new information, future events or other factors. In light of these risks and uncertainties, the forward-looking events and circumstances discussed in this presentation might not occur. Our actual results could differ substantially from those anticipated in our forward-looking statements. Forward Looking StatementForward Looking Statement
  3. 3. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent Air Transport Industry Review ERJ 145 Family E-Jets Family Market Outlook 2010-2029 Product Development ContentsContents
  4. 4. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 IATA: “Air traffic strong demand continues, but recovery enters second slower phase” 7.4% 1.6 % -3.5% Source: IATA (Sep/10) 6.4% Air Transport Demand - IATAAir Transport Demand - IATA World – International RPK Growth Rate (% yoy)
  5. 5. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent IATA: strong recovery in 2010 and slight slowdown in 2011 2010F net profit of US$8.9bi, up from US$2.5bi projected in last June forecast Source: IATA (Sep/10 ; ICAO 1995-2008 and IATA 2009-11) Net Profit/Loss (US$ billion) Region 2009E 2010F 2011F Africa - 0.1 0.1 0.0 Asia Pacific - 2.7 5.2 3.0 Europe - 4.3 - 1.3 0.0 Latin America 0.5 1.0 0.6 Middle East - 0.6 0.4 0.3 North America - 2.7 3.5 1.4 World - 9.9 8.9 5.3-18 -15 -12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010F 2011F NetProfit/Loss(US$Billion) -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 NetMargin(%) Net Profit Net Loss Net Margin Airline Financial Results - WorldAirline Financial Results - World
  6. 6. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010F 2012F 2014F 2016F 2018F 2020F 2022F 2024F 2026F 2028F WorldRealGDP&RPK(Index1978=100) RPK ICAO Forecast Jun/10 GDP GulfWar Slowdown&Sep11th. IraqWar&SARS FinancialCrisis Source: ICAO (1978-2009) and The Economist Demand recovery better than expected Despite crisis, air transport demand will increase in the mid-long term OilCrisis 5.5 % C AG R 2010-2029 4.5% CAGR 2010-2029 RPK Avg. Annual Growth 1978-2009: 5.0% 1998-2009: 5.1% Air Transport Demand vs. EconomyAir Transport Demand vs. Economy
  7. 7. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent Air Transport Industry Review - SummaryAir Transport Industry Review - Summary Recovery of market demand – better than expected Weak revenue environment, but with signs of improvement Continuous efficiency improvement and cost reductions Limited aircraft financing resources More consolidations & mergers and fewer start-ups Long term growth in air transport demand despite crisis
  8. 8. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent The 50-Seater Market ERJ145 – the backbone of the hub-and-spoke system The 50-Seater Market ERJ145 – the backbone of the hub-and-spoke system
  9. 9. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent ERJ 145 Family Order BookERJ 145 Family Order Book Firm orders Deliveries Firm Backlog ERJ 135 108 108 0 ERJ 140 74 74 0 ERJ 145 708 704 4 Total 890 886 4 as of Sep 30th, 2010 (*) Includes only commercial segment
  10. 10. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent Dec 1998Dec 1998 Dec 1999Dec 1999 Aug 2000Aug 2000 Mar 2001Mar 2001 Sep 2001Sep 2001 May 2003May 2003 Dec 1996Dec 1996 First DeliveryFirst Delivery May 2002May 2002 Feb 2005Feb 2005May 2004May 2004 1,000+ ERJ 145 Platforms Delivered1,000+ ERJ 145 Platforms Delivered Sep 2007Sep 2007
  11. 11. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent Pre-Owned ERJ TransactionsPre-Owned ERJ Transactions Nearly 170 pre-owned ERJ transactions since 2000 61 ERJ transfers in the 2008-09 period BMI – United Kingdom FinnComm - Finland Satena - Colombia Athens Airways - Greece Trans States - USA Dniproavia - Ukraine City Airline - Sweden Republic - USA Passaredo - Brazil Aeromexico Connect - Mexico Diexim Expresso - Angola SEAA - Angola
  12. 12. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent RJ50 Market TrendsRJ50 Market Trends RJ50 feeder is fundamental to support US hub and spoke system US Regionals trend towards higher capacity aircraft (75 seater) due to Scope Clause relaxation Secondary markets will keep expanding with pre-owned RJ50s moving to CIS, Mexico, Africa and South America
  13. 13. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent E-Jets helping airlines to be more efficient
  14. 14. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent E-Jets Family Order BookE-Jets Family Order Book Firm Orders Deliveries Firm Backlog EMBRAER 170 191 180 11 EMBRAER 175 173 130 43 EMBRAER 190 457 301 156 EMBRAER 195 95 60 35 Total 916 671 245 as of Sep 30th, 2010
  15. 15. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent 12% 23% 33% 18% 14% 13% 8% 23% 15% 41% Asia Pacific / China Middle East / Africa Europe/CIS Latin America North America E-Jets Worldwide DistributionE-Jets Worldwide Distribution Customers Firm Orders Diversified customer-base across five continents Increased presence in emerging markets with established carriers Source: Embraer (Sep/10)
  16. 16. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent E-Jets Deliveries: approaching 700 unitsE-Jets Deliveries: approaching 700 units jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 100th Oct 2005 1st Mar 2004 200th Dec 2006 300th Oct 2007 20052004 20072006 2008 400th May 2008 500th Dec 2008 2009 2010 600th Sep 2009 Sep/2009 700 671
  17. 17. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent E-Jets: same efficiency different business modelsE-Jets: same efficiency different business models Network Low CostRegional Source: Embraer (Jun/10 - Sirte Oil, GECAS, Jetscape and M1 Travel not presented)
  18. 18. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent Leasing companies supporting E-JetsLeasing companies supporting E-Jets Leasing and financial companies commitment in the E-Jet program 1 3 4 9 13 17 19 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 AAM Gbmh Aircraft Asset Management MARUTA INDUSTRIES
  19. 19. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent E-Jets Family CommonalityE-Jets Family Commonality Airlines are exploring the E-Jets family concept. High commonality in systems, parts and crew qualification.
  20. 20. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent E-Jets Main Applications “by design”E-Jets Main Applications “by design” Natural evolution for existingNatural evolution for existing 5050--seat marketsseat markets RightRight--sizing of low loadsizing of low load--factorfactor narrownarrow--body flightsbody flights New market opportunities throughNew market opportunities through lower risk and flexibilitylower risk and flexibility Replacement of old andReplacement of old and inefficient jetsinefficient jets
  21. 21. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent 14% 57% North America 20%50% 6% 40% Europe/CIS 31% 49% Latin America 29% 60% Africa/Middle East 53% 9% China 38% 47% Asia Pacific 14% 8% 57% North America 6% 25% 40% Europe/CIS 29% 60% 6% Africa/Middle East 38% 47% 6% Asia Pacific 20% 9%50% 14% 8% 21% 57% North America 6% 25% 29% 40% Europe/CIS 31% 20% 49% Latin America 29% 60% 6% 5% Africa/Middle East 53% 9% 38% China 38% 47% 6% 10% Asia Pacific 20% 9% 21%50% 57% North America 40% Europe/CIS 49% Latin America 60% Africa/Middle East 9% China 47% Asia Pacific 50% Source: OAG (1Q10) World E-Jets Actual DeploymentE-Jets Actual Deployment Right-sizing New Markets Replacement of old Jets Natural Growth
  22. 22. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent E-Jets Helping to Increase EfficiencyE-Jets Helping to Increase Efficiency
  23. 23. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent “Going to Embraer 190's, shorter stage length, fewer seats per flight, outperformance in RASM, (…) and driving more revenue.” E190 - Right-sizing at US AirwaysE190 - Right-sizing at US Airways 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 Dec/09 Frequency 16 Seats 2,096 A319 A319 A319 A319 A319 A319 A319 A319 A319 A319 A319 A319 A319 A319 A319 A319 Scott Kirby US Airways President Jan/10 E190 E190 E190 E190 E190 E190 E190 E190 E190 E190 E190 E190 E190 E190 E190 E190 Frequency 16 Seats 1,568 Source: OAGback (3rd Wed of Dec/09 and Jan/10) A319 E190 Load Factor: 41.7% New York LaGuardia (LGA) – Boston Logan (BOS)
  24. 24. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent E-Jets: Complementing NarrowbodiesE-Jets: Complementing Narrowbodies Source: OAG (2009) SEATS 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 Cairo – Sharm el Sheik B735 B735 B735 B735 1160 Aug/07 A321 A321 978 Aug/09 A321 A321 E170 E170 A321 A321 E170 E170 E170 E170 E170 New York – Chicago 2,040 Apr/09 1,920 Apr/10 A319 B757 A320 B757 B757 A319 A319 A319 B737-3 A319 A320 B737-3 A320 A319 A319 A319 A319 E170 A319 A319 E170 A320 E170 A320 A319 A320 A319 E170 A320 A319 A319 A319 Madrid – Paris (ORY) B738 B738 744 606 Dec/08 Dec/09 E195 B738 B738B738 B738 E195 494 342 Sep/08 Sep/09 A320 E190 E190 A321 A320 San Salvador - Guatemala A320
  25. 25. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent E-Jets Right-sizing narrowbody servicesE-Jets Right-sizing narrowbody services
  26. 26. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent E-Jets Helping Enlarging NetworksE-Jets Helping Enlarging Networks
  27. 27. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent E190E190E190 E190 100150+Seats B737-700A320 A320 A320 Middle EastEuropeAsia PacificNorth America E-Jets Helping Explore New MarketsE-Jets Helping Explore New Markets Low Cost Carriers with Two Fleet Types
  28. 28. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent E-Jets Helping Reduce Costs and Fuel BurnE-Jets Helping Reduce Costs and Fuel Burn
  29. 29. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent Source: www.eforefficiency.com Note: European economic conditions, fuel at 0.50 EUR/liter E-Jets: Direct Replacement BenefitsE-Jets: Direct Replacement Benefits Fuel Burn
  30. 30. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent E170/E190 - Air France / KLME170/E190 - Air France / KLM “The E-Jets continue to receive great acceptance from our customers for their large and comfortable cabin, and we gain great efficiency by operating both the EMBRAER 190 and the EMBRAER 170.” Jean-Yves Grosse, Régional/Air France President and CEO “KLM Cityhopper is impressed with the excellent performance of EMBRAER 190 from an operational-technical and customer perspective.” Boet Kreiken, Managing Director of KLM Cityhopper Source: OAG, 2010 10 E170 + 27 E190
  31. 31. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent E190/E195 - LufthansaE190/E195 - Lufthansa “… Lufthansa will continue its strive to further upgrade its fleet to offer its customers an unrivalled premium product on its regional network, with exceptional levels of comfort.” Nico Buchholz, Lufthansa Senior Vice President, Corporate Fleet Source: OAG, 2010 11 E190 + 19 E195
  32. 32. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent E170/E190 - British AirwaysE170/E190 - British Airways Peter Simpson Managing Director of BA Cityflyer "Passenger feedback on the new fleet has been fantastic, with the two-by-two seating configuration and the additional space a particular hit over the RJs they have replaced,"(ATI, July 15th 2010) 6 E170 + 5 E190
  33. 33. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent E-Jets Sales at Farnborough 2010E-Jets Sales at Farnborough 2010 LOI for up to 20LOI for up to 20 EJetsEJets LOI for 24 E190LOI for 24 E190 2 E190 converted2 E190 converted optionsoptions 5 E195 converted5 E195 converted optionsoptions Order for 35 E175Order for 35 E175 Order can increaseOrder can increase up to 140 Jetsup to 140 Jets
  34. 34. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent E175 – FlybeE175 – Flybe Jim French Chairman and CEO of Flybe as of Jun/10 “The EMBRAER 175 will give us significant added capacity and is particularly suited to the sector lengths prevalent in Europe that we are most interested in exploiting. In short, it perfectly fits Flybe’s business model.” (Flybe Jul/2010) FIS Backlog Options E195 14 E175 35 65
  35. 35. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent E190 - Air LeaseE190 - Air Lease Oct/2010: EMBRAER AND AIR LEASE SIGN FINAL AGREEMENT FOR UP TO 20 E-JETS (15 orders + 5 options) “… the unique design of the E-190 allows us to offer Air Lease customers a mainline product but at regional jet operating economics,”. “Since the initial announcement made at the Farnborough Air Show, we have received significant interest from customers from all parts of the world and we look forward to providing an aircraft that meets their needs.” John L. Plueger, President and COO of Air Lease Corp (Oct/2010)
  36. 36. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent E190 - Republic (Frontier)E190 - Republic (Frontier) Agreement for more 24 EMBRAER 190s “This new agreement confirms our commitment to the E-Jet family. We chose them again because passenger comfort, mission performance, especially in hot and high markets like Denver (DEN), and compelling economics are hallmarks of the E-Jets product line.” (July/2010) Bryan Bedford CEO of Republic Airways E190 Routemap 2010Source: OAG 15 E190 already operating under Frontier colors
  37. 37. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent Orders announced in Farnborough Air ShowOrders announced in Farnborough Air Show 0 50 100 150 200 E-Jets ATR 72 Q400 CRJ CSeries MRJ Total Orders* for aircraft up to 120 seats 191 64 0 07 0 *Includes Firm Orders, Options , Purchase Rights and LOIs
  38. 38. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent Market Share - World (Jets 61-120 seats)Market Share - World (Jets 61-120 seats) Considering accumulated Net Orders up to Jun/10. Embraer: 170/175/190/195 Sukhoi: Superjet 100 Bombardier: CRJ700/900/1000; CS100 Comac: ARJ-21 Airbus: A318 Antonov: An-148/158 Boeing: B737-600 Mitsubishi: MRJ90
  39. 39. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent Market Outlook 2010-2029MarketMarket Outlook 2010Outlook 2010--20292029
  40. 40. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent Each region has a different pattern Asia Pacific and China will represent 36% of RPK in 2029 RPK (Billion) 2009 Traffic Added Traffic 2010-29 2010-2029 Annual Growth Rate [%] RPK GDP 3.2% 2.6% 4.2% 2.0% 5.7% 3.2% 7.3% 6.7% 6.5% 4.0% 6.0% 4.0% 6.0% 3.3% 5.1% 4.4% 4.9% 3.1%World
  41. 41. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent 29,135 new aircraft will be required29,135 new aircraft will be required About US$3 tri in terms of aircraft deliveries opportunities worldwide 2,2602,260 475475 2,5152,515 3,8853,885 14,43514,435 5,5655,565 6,875 aircraft (24%) 6,875 aircraft (24%)
  42. 42. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent 6,875 jet deliveries (30-120 seats) North America 2,400 35% Europe 1,510 22% Russia CIS 405 6% Latin America 575 8% Africa 220 3% Middle East 240 4% China 950 14% Asia Pacific 575 8% North America + Europe will represent 57% of new world deliveries
  43. 43. 680 E-Jets 56 Airlines from 39 Countries

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