• Share
  • Email
  • Embed
  • Like
  • Save
  • Private Content
2007 - 7th Annual U.S. Analyst   Airline Market Overview   Commecial Aviation
 

2007 - 7th Annual U.S. Analyst Airline Market Overview Commecial Aviation

on

  • 1,169 views

 

Statistics

Views

Total Views
1,169
Views on SlideShare
1,168
Embed Views
1

Actions

Likes
1
Downloads
46
Comments
0

1 Embed 1

http://www.slideshare.net 1

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

    2007 - 7th Annual U.S. Analyst   Airline Market Overview   Commecial Aviation 2007 - 7th Annual U.S. Analyst Airline Market Overview Commecial Aviation Presentation Transcript

    • 7th Annual U.S. Analyst and Investor Meeting April 11th, 2007 Airline Market Overview A perspective from the 30 to 120-seat segment Frederico Fleury Curado - Embraer Executive Vice-President, Airline Market
    • Contents Air Transport Industry Review 50-seat Regional Jet Market E-Jets: The 70 to 120-seat Market Evolution Embraer Market Forecast
    • Passenger traffic back and growing Strong passenger demand RPK Average Annual Growth Rates 5.0 3.5% 6.2% -0.4% 11.4% 5.8% 4.5 4.0 3.5 Total RPK (Billion) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006F 2007F 2008F Source: ICAO - Contracting States - Scheduled Airlines
    • LCC’s still in demand’s driver seat 2Q 2000 LCC’s US Domestic Network 2Q 2006 LCC’s Market Share (Domestic RPM) 2000 19% 2006 34% 2010F 39% • LCCs with increased market share and pricing power. • Network Carriers focused more on international markets and using Regional partners to improve domestic network efficiency. Source: BACK and Embraer
    • Strong effort to reduce costs Operating Costs excluding fuel decreased 14 17 % 12.25 Total Cost: + 12 10.49 CASM (US¢/ASM) 10 Total Cost (excl. Fuel): -1% 8.99 8.89 8 6 4 2 0 3Q2000 3Q06 vs 3Q00 3Q2006 Fuel 1.50 (14%) +124% 3.36 (27%) Other 5.42 (52%) +10% 5.99 (49%) Labor 3.57 (34%) -19% 2.90 (24%) Source: ATA (Airline Cost Index)
    • Fuel Price Lack of spare oil production capacity remains high price trend Jet Fuel Price by Region Jet Fuel Price Forecast (EIA) 2.25 2.25 New York 2.00 Rotterdam 2.00 Jet Fuel Price (US$ per Gallon) 1.99 1.94 Singapore 1.93 Jet Fuel (US$ per Gallon) 1.75 China 1.75 1.67 1.64 1.50 1.50 1.25 1.25 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.75 0.50 0.50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 For coming years oil barrel is expected to stay at US$52-62 level and jet fuel at US$1.64-1.94/gallon. Source: EIA - Energy Industry Administration (Feb/07)
    • Revenue environment is improving World nominal yields improved in the last 5 years 9.25 Nominal 9.00 Real (Y2001; adj. for US inflation) 8.75 World Yield (US Cents) 8.50 8.25 8.00 7.75 7.50 7.25 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F 2008F Nominal yields: 10% increase in the last five years Real yields: 3% lower than 2001 values Source: ICAO (Contracting States – Passenger, Scheduled Airlines), Global Insight and Embraer
    • Profitability ahead Positive results projected for 2007 North America -10 -6.7 -3.7 0.2 Europe 1.1 1.6 1.8 1.5 World -5.6 -3.2 -0.5 2.5 2004 2005 2006F 2007F Middle East 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 2004 2005 2006F 2007F 2004 2005 2006F 2007F Asia Pacific 2004 2005 2006F 2007F Latin America 3.4 2.1 1.7 1.2 Africa 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 2004 2005 2006F 2007F 2004 2005 2006F 2007F 2004 2005 2006F 2007F Values in US$ Billion Source: IATA Economics Dec/06 (ICAO 2004-2005 and IATA Forecast 2006-2007) US net losses includes $6.1bn restructuring costs in 2006
    • Air transport industry major drivers Increased Competition Weak Revenue Environment Need for differentiation in services Improved productivity and efficiency New Passenger Profile Liberalization Different Set of Values Opportunities for new entrants (pricing, comfort, more direct flights) Air Transport Industry Old & Inefficient Aircraft Emissions Regulations Pressure on Fuel & Maintenance Costs May anticipate A/C Replacement Demand/Capacity Match Better match to avoid empty seats
    • A quick look at the W/W fleet profile Scheduled Airlines, All Pax Configuration and Active in Service 18,204 aircraft Age (years) > 30 4,000 26-30 3,500 3395 3306 21-25 Number of Aircraft (Units) 3,000 16-20 2,500 11-15 2027 6-10 2,000 1741 0-5 1548 1,500 1378 1067 968 862 973 1,000 414 525 500 0 TP < 30 TP 30-60 TP 61-90 Jet 30-60 Jet 61-90 Jet 91-120 Jet 121-145 Jet 146-175 Jet 176-210 Jet 211-300 Jet 301-400 Jet >400 Source: BACK (Dec/06)
    • ERJ 145 Family
    • ERJ 145 Family 37 Seats 44 Seats 50 Seats 50 Seats (2,000 nm range)
    • ERJ 145 Family Orderbook Firm Firm Options Deliveries Backlog Orders ERJ 135 108 1 108 - ERJ 140 74 - 74 - ERJ 145 732 132 679 53 Total 914 133 861 53 (as of December 31st, 2006)
    • RJ´s importance to US hub-and-spoke system Hub system extremely dependent of RJs % of RJ50 passengers through Connections 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% R H IAD W D L A N G A W P L C PIT E L M T PH EW IA AT OR ST LG CL CL DE DC MS SL CV DF DT ME RJ50: 3 connecting passengers for each local passenger Source: Back (T100 and OD1A, RJ50: ERJ Family, CRJ-100/200 and 328Jet)
    • 50-seat Regional Jet Operation - 2006 Single provider routes can benefit from higher yields USA Europe Total RJ: 2,856 Routes Total RJ: 1,386 Routes RJ as a Single Service Provider: RJ as a Single Service Provider: 1,114 Routes 436 Routes (39% of total RJ routes) (31% of total RJ routes) Source: Back (Jan/07: ERJ135/140/145, CRJ100/200/440, 328Jet ; more than one flight per week)
    • Fleet Age Profile (30-60 seats) 2,018 Jets (average age: 7 years) 1,400 Number Average Region of % Age 1,200 Aircraft (years) USA & Canada 1,421 70% 4 1,000 Number of Aircraft Latin America 13 1% 3 800 Europe 297 15% 6 Russia & CIS 187 9% 31 600 Africa & Middle East 15 1% 12 400 Asia Pacific 21 1% 5 China 64 3% 4 200 World 2,018 7 0 0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 >35 Age (Years) Source: Back (Oct/06)
    • RJ 50 Market Opportunities - China Most of the routes have low demand density and low frequencies. 500 383 markets 152 (20%) 68 (9%) 400 51% of total markets Daily Passenger Traffic have less than 300 one daily frequency and less than 135 200 pax/day 100 Number of domestic markets: 755 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 Daily Frequency Source: China Airline Traffic Statistics 2005 (Markets with at least one weekly frequency)
    • China - an unbalanced jet fleet 30-120 seat jets represent only 12% of China jet fleet (30-210 seats), while it is 43% in US and 35% in Europe 4,829 aircraft 826 2,612 100% 80% % of Jet Fleet (J30-210) 58% Seat Segment 65% 60% J121-210 89% J61-120 40% 15% J30-60 24% 20% 43% 35% 28% 4% 8% 12% 11% 0% USA China Europe Source: BACK FleetPC (Jun/06 ; active in service ; scheduled airlines)
    • China - ERJ 145 and 328Jet Routes 29 328Jet 6 ERJ145 Backlog: 50 ERJ145 4 ERJ145 Backlog: 6 ERJ145 5 ERJ145 328Jet Source: CAAC (2005), Embraer
    • RJ 50 Market Opportunities - Russia/CIS Old fleet replacement need: 521 aircraft Improved fuel consumption Lower Operating Costs Increased Productivity 200 Number of Aircraft 150 50 seats 30 seats Avg. Age Avg. Age 76 seats 35 years 32 years Avg. Age 100 29 years 186 189 An-24 Yak-40 146 50 Tu-134 0 Turboprop Jet 30-60 Jet 61-90 Source: BACK (Oct/06)
    • RJ 50s Future Market • Market entered a mature phase in the US and Europe • RJ50s will remain the backbone of US hub feeding system • New market opportunities (long and thin) in the US and EU • Potential in China, Russia and other markets • Secondary market developing
    • E-Jets Helping airlines to improve efficiency
    • E-Jets Family EMBRAER 170/175 EMBRAER 170 • 70 to 80 seats • 2,000 nm Range • Certification: February 2004 EMBRAER 175 • 78 to 88 seats • 1,900 nm Range • Certification: December 2004 EMBRAER 190/195 EMBRAER 190 • 98 to 114 seats • 2,300 nm Range • Certification: August 2005 EMBRAER 195 • 108 to 122 seats • 2,100 nm Range • Certification: June 2006
    • The E-Jets Family - Main Applications Natural evolution for existing 50-seat markets Right-sizing of low load-factor narrow-body flights Capacity, range & seamless service Enhancing services by increasing frequencies New market opportunities – low risk development Medium density and long/thin markets Replacement of old & inefficient jets
    • Market Opportunities – Right-sizing US Domestic (100-160 seat Jet - 12 months ending Sep/2006) r 600,000 c to 100% d Fa r oa ate te r .L e ea try Avg 7 6-s 00 -s Indus 480,000 1 80% Average Load Factor Annual Flights 360,000 60% 240,000 40% 120,000 20% 0 0% 0 0 0 0 50 60 70 80 90 2 <5 10 11 >1 Pax per Departure • 851 thousand flights (40% of total) carried less than 100 passengers onboard Source: BACK
    • Air Canada Strategic Review Presentation (September 27, 2004) Y COP
    • Air Canada - Changing the Game Presentation (Dec/2006) Y COP
    • Delta Flight Plan Presentation (Mar/2007) Y COP
    • US Scope Clauses - Jun/2000 Labor Seats 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Contract Amendable Year 30 units Not Allowed Unlimited 45-55 seats (Grandfathered rights 36 Avro RJ85 up to 69 seats) 2003 Unlimited Not Allowed 2003 Unlimited Up to 67 units Not Allowed 2002 Unlimited Up to 75 units Not Allowed 2000 Not Allowed Up to 65 units 2000 (Grandfathered rights 18 AirWis BAe 146) Up to 35 units 50 seats and 35 units 69 seats Not Allowed 2003
    • US Scope Clauses - Jun/2006 Labor Seats 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Contract Amendable Year Unlimited Up to 90 units Not Allowed 2012 Unlimited Not Allowed 2009 “Unlimited” (Up to 110% AA Up to 50 units Not Allowed 2008 narrow body) Up to 200 units Unlimited (30 units 71-76 seats + 3 units for each Not Allowed 2010 mainline aircraft increase) “Unlimited” up to 70 seats Not Allowed 2010 Up to 93 units Unlimited up to 78 seats (86 seats) Not Allowed 2010
    • Market Opportunities - Replacement World Fleet Age Profile (61-120 seats): 2,454 jets with 15 years average age 800 Avg. 30% of 61-120 fleet Region # Acft. 700 Age (735 acft) with more USA, Canada & 600 846 10 Caribbean Number of Aircraft than 20 years 500 Latin America 285 23 400 Europe 617 11 Russia & CIS 231 23 300 Africa 148 22 200 Middle East 48 16 100 Asia Pacific 241 19 China 38 8 0 0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 >35 World 2,454 15 Age (Years) Source: BACK (Oct/06)
    • Maximizing the Revenue in the Profit Equation Revenue strengths of smaller airplanes Revenues Yields / Fares better market share More flights . . . with business passengers market stimulation More direct better fares and yields flights New markets better yields / more revenue Capacity better yields Management
    • E-Jets Joint Certification means Flexibility • Same Type Design for ANAC, FAA and EASA FAA EASA ANAC FAA EASA EMBRAER 170 February 2004 February 2004 EMBRAER 175 December 2004 August 2006 January 2005 EMBRAER 190 August 2005 September, 2005 June 2006 EMBRAER 195 June 2006 2nd Quarter 2007 July 2006 • Market swap flexibility • Increased residual value
    • E-Jets Commonality Training 70% of the potential Spare Parts 30% of the potential benefits benefits same cockpit, common systems and fly- E170 by-wire technology mean maximum training commonality within the family 100% EMBRA E175 170 175 190 195 ER 170 ------- A/A/A A/A/A A/A/A 86% 175 A/A/A ------- A/A/A A/A/A E190 190 A/A/A A/A/A ------- A/A/A 100% 195 A/A/A A/A/A A/A/A ------- E195 Training Qualification Differences : According to FAA AC 120- 53, grades Based on the aircraft RSPL (Recommended Spare Parts List) range from A (best) to E (worst) in 3 categories: Training Differences, Check Note: Airframe and Ground Servicing Equipment only (Engines are not included). Differences and Recurrent Training • E-Jets have the maximum training commonality (A/A/A) • E-Jets offer an outstanding parts commonality (86% to 100%)
    • The Comfort Factor E-Jets: Narrowbody airplane comfort in convenient sizes CRJ700/900 EMBRAER 170/190 A318/320 17.3” 18.25” 18.0” 16” 19.75” 19” E170/190 advantages: 0.95” (2.4cm) wider seats Widest seats 0.25” (0.6 cm) wider seats 3.75” (9.5cm) wider aisle (+23%) Widest aisles 0.75” (1.9 cm) wider aisle 16% more volume per seat No middle seats Equal volume per seat “Passengers love this aircraft for its spacious interior design and in particular the absence of a middle seat” Bryan Bedford, CEO Republic Airways (Jul/06) “The comfort of the E175 aircraft is important to our customers and the economics of the aircraft make good business sense.” Scott Kirby, US Airways EVP Sales and Marketing (Jul/06)
    • The Trip Cost Factor E-Jets: Lower trip costs than comparable airplanes 8000 7563 - 20% - 32% 7000 6310 6058 6000 US Domestic 5368 5135 Network Airline - US$ per Trip 5000 800 sm trip 4000 3000 Airplane Variable plus Ownership 2000 Costs per Trip 1000 0 E170 E175 E190 E195 A319 / B737-700 2-class seating: 70 78 94 104 124 Costs exclude: revenue related costs and system (overhead) costs Costs include: variable: fuel, crew, maintenance, landing fees, handling fees ; ownership: lease cost, hull insurance, spares inventory costs
    • Air Canada - Changing the Game Presentation (Dec/2006) Y COP
    • E-Jets Family Orderbook Firm Firm Options Deliveries Orders Backlog EMBRAER 170 157 133 128 29 EMBRAER 175 99 136 25 74 EMBRAER 190 317 248 53 264 EMBRAER 195 46 51 3 43 Total 619 568 209 410 (as of December 31st, 2006)
    • E-Jets Customer Base Evolution Customers 1 2 3 4 9 13 18 33 700 619 600 Accumulated Firm Orders 500 440 400 343 300 245 200 110 112 118 100 60 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Deliveries Source: Embraer
    • E-Jets Worldwide Distribution Customers Asia Pacific / Firm Orders China 14% Middle East / 13% 24% Africa 5% 21% Europe 60% 16% 17% 24% 6% Latin America North America • growing and diversified customer-base across five continents • increased presence in emerging markets with established carriers
    • E-Jets Family - Efficiency to all Business Models Regional Network Low Cost Charter Source: Embraer (Jan/07 ; Sirte Oil and GECAS not presented)
    • E-Jets Deployment - USA and Canada Dec/06 Deliveries Backlog 15 E175 27 E190 18 E190 23 E190 78 E190 36 E175 2 E190 55 E190 16 E170 4 E170 * Natural Growth Right-sizing New Routes 28 E170 40% 42% 18% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 28 E170 30 E175 % of Routes (4Q06) E-Jets 134 226 Source: BACK (4Q06), Embraer * to be operated in Mar/07
    • Number of Flights 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 0 10,000 12,000 <1 10 00 Source: BACK (4Q06) 1- 2 20 00 1- 3 30 00 1- 4 40 00 1- 5 50 00 1- 6 60 00 1- 7 70 00 1- 8 80 00 1- 90 900 1- 10 100 01 0 - 11 110 01 0 - Distance (nm) 12 120 01 0 - 13 130 01 0 - 14 140 01 0 - 15 150 E-Jets 01 0 - 16 160 E-Jets Operational Profile - USA and Canada 01 0 - 17 170 01 0 -1 80 0 548 nm 474 nm 549 nm 440 nm 663 nm 669 nm Average Stage Length (4Q06)
    • E-Jets Deployment - USA and Canada Efficiency and flexibility for long and short haul markets Airline Longest Route Shortest Route Montreal-Calgary Ottawa-Toronto 1,866 sm - 4:18 (2 Daily) 225 sm - 1:00 (2 Daily) Dallas-New York Atlanta-Charlotte 1,377 sm - 3:46 (1 Daily) 227 sm - 1:14 (1 Daily) Austin-New York Boston-New York 1,515 sm - 3:30 (1 Daily) 187 sm - 1:16 (7 Daily) Denver-Toronto Washington-Norfork 1,310 sm - 3:16 (1 Daily) 175 sm - 1:00 (2 Daily) Houston-Philadelphia KeyWest-Ft.Lauderdale 1,323 sm - 3:06 (1 Daily) 145 sm - 0:49 (1 Daily) Source: BACK (4Q06)
    • E175/190 at Air Canada LaGuardia – Montreal Chicago – Toronto 2005 2007 2005 2007 Seats* 870 508 480 485 6:00 E175 A319 E175 8:00 A319 A319 E175 E175 10:00 A319 E175 A319 12:00 CRJ E175 14:00 A319 E175 E175 16:00 A319 A319 E175 18:00 A319 E175 20:00 A319 E190 A319 22:00 E-Jets Right-sizing at Air Canada: • 76% of total E175/190 routes • 5 routes complementing A319 and 7 routes complementing A320 • 11 routes replacing A319 and 2 routes replacing A320 Source: BACK (4Q06) *4th Wednesday of January
    • E170 at US Airways Philadelphia – Charleston Washington – Portland ME 2005 2007 2005 2007 Seats* 100 190 150 260 6:00 8:00 CRJ E170 CRJ 10:00 E170 12:00 CRJ 14:00 CRJ CRJ E170 16:00 18:00 ERJ 20:00 E170 CRJ E170 22:00 E-Jets Natural Growth at US Airways: • 56% of E170 routes • 17 routes complementing CRJ-100/200 and 4 routes complementing ERJ 145 • 5 routes replacing CRJ-100/200 and 1 route replacing ERJ 145 Source: BACK (4Q06) *4th Wednesday of January
    • E-Jets Deployment - Europe Dec/06 Deliveries Backlog 6 E170 2 E170 10 E170 9 E190 1 E190 2 E195 12 E195 10 E170 6 E175 1 E190 5 E190 15 E170 Natural Growth Right-sizing New Routes 15 E195 41% 53% 3% E-Jets 38 56 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% % of Routes (4Q06) Source: BACK (4Q06), Embraer
    • E170/190 at Finnair Helsinki – Copenhagen Hamburg – Helsinki 2005 2007 2005 2007 Seats* 528 559 252 228 6:00 8:00 A319 A319 10:00 A319 E190 E170 A319 12:00 14:00 A319 E170 E170 16:00 18:00 A319 A321 A319 E170 20:00 E170 22:00 E-Jets Right-sizing at Finnair: • 74% of total E-Jets routes • 44 routes complementing A319/320s • 8 routes replacing A319/320s and 6 routes replacing MD-80s Source: BACK (4Q06) *4th Wednesday of January
    • E-Jets Deployment - Middle East & Africa Dec/06 Deliveries Backlog 14 E170 1 E170 1 E195 6 E195 6 E170 3 E170 2 E170 E-Jets 15 18 Natural Growth Right-sizing New Routes 5% 86% 9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% % of Routes (Jan/07) Source: BACK (Jan/07), Embraer
    • E-Jets Deployment - Asia Pacific & China Dec/06 Deliveries Backlog 50 E190 3 E170 11 E190 3 E190 5 E195 2 E170 3 E175 1 E170 1 E170 E-Jets 5 74 Source: BACK (1Q07), Embraer
    • E-Jets Deployment - Latin America Dec/06 Deliveries Backlog 1 E190 4 E190 1 E175 1 E190 6 E190 9 E190 2 E170 2 E170 1 E190 E-Jets 13 14 Source: Embraer
    • E-Jets Family - EIS Statistics E170/175 E190/195 Operators 13 Operators 10 Aircraft in Service 156 Aircraft in Service 67 Flight Hours 582,594 Flight Hours 94,725 Flight Cycles 403,422 Flight Cycles 58,740 Fleet Leaders Fleet Leaders Flight Ho urs (Republic S/N 16) 7,624 Flight Ho urs (JetB lue S/N 8) 3,072 Flight Cycles (Republic S/N 13) 5,243 Flight Cycles (JetB lue S/N 8) 2,164 E170/190 Family Operators* 21 Aircraft in Service 223 Flight Hours 677,319 Flight Cycles 462,162 Source: Airlines (as of Mar 26th, 2007) (*) Air Canada operates E175 and E190 and Tame operates E170 and E190
    • E170/190 at Virgin Blue 6 Embraer 170 14 Embraer 190 “People refer to it as a regional jet, but it is not a regional jet, it is the first airliner that has bridged that gap between NBs and RJs ... It’s a wonderful aeroplane for being able to pick up some markets we fly today that we’re not doing particularly well on.” “It has the mission capabilities to be able to fly the length and breadth of our country, it has the capabilities to fly into the Pacific to where we fly today with our 737s. But we’re able to do it at a lower trip cost.” Brett Godfrey, Virgin Blue CEO Australian Aviation, Jan/Feb 2007
    • E190 at Hainan 50 ERJ 145 plus 50 EMBRAER 190 order “The acquisition of ERJ-145s and EMBRAER 190s represents an important validation of our strategy of providing more flexible flights to match the rapidly increasing demand of the domestic market in China” Chen Feng – Chairman Hainan Airlines ATI News Aug/06
    • E190 at Flybaboo Embraer 190: 5 firm + 5 options “Comfort is one of our constant concerns and I’m truly convinced that, with the EMBRAER 190, we will be offering the highest quality of comfort and service to our clients.” “We selected the E190 for its comfort and its performance. It has four-hour flight endurance, enabling it to reach destinations with a range of more than 3,000 km, along with capability to take-off and land at small airports.” Julian Cook, Flybaboo Founder and Managing Director Source: ATI News, Embraer, Feb 2007
    • 2007-2026 Embraer Market Outlook 4th. Edition A LONG-TERM VIEW OF THE 30 TO 120-SEAT COMMERCIAL JET MARKET
    • Projected Traffic and Economic Growth Growth by Region (2007-2026) USA, Canada & Caribbean RPK Latin America GDP Europe CIS Africa Middle East Asia Pacific China World 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% Average Annual Growth (%) Projected world GDP growth around 3% in the next twenty years will sustain nearly 5% annual increase in air transport demand. Source: Global Insight and Embraer (Oct/06)
    • Regional Trends Europe Russia & CIS • Recovering Economy and Yield • Environment rules may impact air Environment transport growth • Tax Barriers to Western Aircraft • Increased Competition (LCC Expansion) USA, Canada & Caribbean • High Speed Train Competition • Ageing Fleet • Right-Sizing and Direct Replacement • Airline Consolidation Opportunities • Increased Competition (LCC Expansion) • Scope Clause Relaxation • Right-Sizing Opportunities China Middle East • New Policies for Regional Aviation • Increased Competition (Start-ups) • Regional Network Under Development • Pilot Shortage • Slow Liberalization Trend • Concentration on Large Aircraft • High Comfort Standards • Right-sizing opportunities • Travel Demand Growing Above World Level Latin America • Increased Competition (LCC Expansion) • Ageing Fleet Asia Pacific • Right-Sizing and Direct Replacement • Trends Towards Liberalization Africa Opportunities • Increased Competition (Start-ups) • Trend Towards Liberalization • Government Owned Flag Carriers • Concentration on Large Aircraft • Ageing Fleets (Used Aircraft) • Infrastructure Constraints to • Very Fragmented Market growth • Liberalization on some countries / • Pilot Shortage regions
    • Embraer Market Forecast (2007-2026) Worldwide Jet Deliveries Segment 2007 - 2016 2017 - 2026 2007 - 2026 30 - 60 300 1,100 1,400 61 - 90 1,100 1,500 2,600 91 - 120 1,650 1,850 3,500 30 - 120 3,050 4,450 7,500
    • Embraer Market Forecast (2007-2026) Projected Deliveries (30-120 seats): 7,500 Jets Russia & CIS USA, Canada 505 & Caribbean Europe 7% 3,850 1,290 51% 17% China Middle 630 East 9% Africa 230 Latin 130 3% America 2% Asia 480 Pacific 6% 385 5%
    • Thank you 78 airlines. 45 countries. 1 manufacturer. EMBRAER