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Unwto 2011 - Tourism toward 2030

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  • 1. UNWTOGeneralAssembly19th SessionGyeongjuRepublic of Korea10 October 2011
  • 2. Tourism 2020 Vision vs. actual trend World International tourist arrivals 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 Tourism 2020 Vision forecast million 800 Actual 1995-2010* 600 940 mn 881 mn 400 528 mn 200 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
  • 3. Tourism Towards 2030• A broad research project in continuation of UNWTO’s work in the area of long-term forecasting initiated in the 1990s.• Objectives: – Assist UNWTO Members in formulating policies and long-term strategic plans – Provide a global reference on tourism future development – Reinforce UNWTO’s role in agenda setting for tourism-related subjects – Constitute a reference for UNWTO strategic documents, programme of work and activities• Central in the study are the projections for international tourism flows in the two decades 2010-2030 – Data series on international tourist arrivals as reported by destination countries are used as the key indicator, taking into account subregion of destination, region of origin, mode of transport and purpose of visit for the period 1980-2010 – The quantitative forecast is based on a causal econometric model with international tourist arrivals as the dependent variable and as independent variables growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a proxy for traveller affluence and business travel potential, and also cost of transport
  • 4. Growth in international tourism will continue, but at a more moderate pace International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, % change over previous year 12 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -6 1980/79 1985/84 1990/89 1995/94 2000/99 2005/04 2010/09 2015/14 2020/19 2025/24 2030/29 source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
  • 5. International tourist arrivals to increase by 43 million a year on averageInternational tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, absolute change over previous year, million 80 70 58 60 56 49 45 45 39 40 33 30 28 27 26 25 22 21 20 22 20 20 20 15 16 13 10 8 4 0 0 0 -2 -1 -11 -20 -35 -40 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
  • 6. International tourist arrivals to reach 1.8 billion by 2030International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, million 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,000 750 500 250 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
  • 7. Emerging economy destinations to surpass advanced destinations in 2015Inbound tourism, advanced and emerging economies International Tourist Arrivals, million 1,250 1,000 emerging economies 750 advanced economies 500 250 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
  • 8. Asia and the Pacific will gain most of the new arrivalsInbound tourism by region of destination International Tourist Arrivals, million 800 Europe 700 600 Asia and the Pacific 500 400 300 Americas 200 Middle East 100 Africa 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030source: World T ourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
  • 9. Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East and Africa to increase their shares 1980 Middle East AmericasAfrica 3% 23% 3% Asia and the Pacific 2010 8% Americas 16% Asia and the Pacific Middle East 22% 6% Europe 2030 63% Africa Americas Asia and the Pacific 5% 14% 30% Middle East 8% Europe 51% Africa 7% Europe 41%
  • 10. North-East Asia will be the most visited subregion in 2030
  • 11. Europe continues to lead in international arrivals received per 100 of population
  • 12. No major change in share by purpose of visit International tourism by purpose of visit International Tourist Arrivals, million 1,000 900 Leisure, recreation and holidays 800 700 600 500 VFR, health, religion, other 400 300 200 Business and professional 100 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
  • 13. Air transport will continue to increase market share, but at a slower paceInternational tourism by means of transport International Tourist Arrivals, million 1,000 by air 750 over surface 500 250 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
  • 14. Travel between regions continues to grow slightly faster than within the same regionInternational tourism by region of destination and origin International Tourist Arrivals, share, % 100 90 80 70 within same region 60 50 40 between regions 30 20 10 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
  • 15. Asia and the Pacific will also be the outbound region that grows mostOutbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals generated, million900 1980 1995 2010 2030 832800700600 541 509500400 308300 265 204200 160 169 110 90 88 81100 71 30 25 37 6 12 6 10 0 Africa Americas Asia and the Pacific Europe Middle East
  • 16. Outbound tourism participation is highest in Europe and still low in Asia and the PacificOutbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals generated per 100 population 100 1980 1995 2010 2030 89 90 80 70 60 57 50 40 36 30 24 25 22 21 20 17 17 14 14 12 12 9 10 6 6 5 6 6 1 2 3 3 1 0 World Africa Americas Asia and the Europe Middle East Pacificsource: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
  • 17. What if assumptions change?Tourism Towards 2030: global projection and sensitivity analysis International Tourist Arrivals, million 2,000 1,750 Actual data 1980-2010 Transport costs continue to fall (scenario 3) 1,500 Central projection Faster rising cost of transport (scenario 2) 1,250 A slower-than-expected economic recovery and future growth (Scenario 1) 1,000 750 500 250 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
  • 18. One-Page Tourism Towards 2030• Global growth in international tourist arrivals to continue, but at a more moderate pace, from 4.2% per year (1980–2020) to 3.3% (2010–2030), as a result of four factors: – The base volumes are higher, so smaller increases still add substantial numbers – Lower GDP growth, as economies mature – A lower elasticity of travel to GDP – A shift from falling transport costs to increasing ones• Tourism Towards 2030 shows that there is still a substantial potential for further expansion in coming decades. Established as well as new destinations can benefit from this trend and opportunity, provided they do shape the adequate conditions and policies with regard to business environment, infrastructure, facilitation, marketing and human resources.• Along with opportunities, challenges also arise in maximising social and economic benefits and minimising negative impacts• Long-term tourism growth pattern: more moderate, sustainable and inclusive
  • 19. Tourism towards Thank you very much2030 / for your attention!Global Overview World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) www.unwto.org