Cn 1 th14_wb2_indicators_karavitis

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Cn 1 th14_wb2_indicators_karavitis

  1. 1. DefinitionDefinition ofof land desertificationland desertification risk by using simple indicatorsrisk by using simple indicators Christos Karavitis Costas Kosmas Orestis Kairis Vassileia Fassouli Mina Karamesouti Kate Kounalaki Agricultural University of Athens
  2. 2. 55thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 201055thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010 ContributorsContributors 1.Celeste de Oliveira Alves Coelho, João Soares, Sandra Valente: University of Aveiro, Portugal. 2.Dino Torri, Fabrizio Ungaro, Francesca Santaloia, Maurizio Polemio, Piernicola Lollino: Research Institute for Hydrogeological Protection – CNR, Italy. 3.Faruk Ocakoglu, Candan Gokceoglu, Harun Sonmez, Levent Tezcan, Halil Gungor, Sanem Ac.kalin: Eskisehir Osmangazi University-EOU, Turkey. 4.Abdellah Laouina, Miloud Chaker: University of Mohamed V, Chair UNESCO-GN, Morocco. 5.Mohamed Ouessar, Houcine Khatteli, Mongi Sghaier, Houcine Taamallah, Azaiez Ouled Belgacem: Institut des Regions Arides-IRA, Tunisia. 6.Li Rui, Yang Qinke, Jiao Juying, Wang Fei, Wen Zhonging, Jiao Feng: Institute of Soil and Water Conservation-ISWC, China. 7.Ioannis Diamantis, Fotios Pliakas, Apostolos Ziogas: Democritus University of Thrace-DUTH, Greece. 8.Albert Sole Benet, Francisco Domingo, Ana Rey, Emiliano Pegoraro, Jesus Fernandez: Estacion Experimental de Zonas Aridas, EEZACSIC, Spain.
  3. 3. 55thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 201055thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010 9. Antonio Ferreira, Pedro Morais, Marta Lopes: Escola Superior Agraria de Gois-ESAC, Portugal 10. Raban Chanda, Michael B.K. Darkoh, Lapo Magole, Julius R. Atlhopheng, Jeremy Perkins, Kutlwano Mulale, Reuben Sebego: University of Botswana-UB, Botswana. 11. Anatoly M. Zeiliguer, Marya L. Sizemskaya, Nikolay B. Khitrov, Vladimir A. Romanenkov, Olga S. Ermolaeva: Moscow State University of Environmental Engineering-MSUEE, Russia. 12. Carlos Ovalle, Alejandro del Pozo, Erick Zagal, Cladio Perez, Juan A. Barrera, Jorge Riquelme, Fernando Fernandez: Instituto de Investigaciones Agropecuarias-INIA, Chile. 13. Jorge Mendes Brito, Nora Helena Ramos Silva, Paulo Jorge Alfama: National Institut for Agriculture Research and Development-INIDA, Cape Verde. 14. Christian Prat, Maria Alcalá, Lenin Medina, Adriana Ramos, José Juan Ramos, Manuel Mendoza, Daniel Gonzalez: Institut de Recherche pour le Développement-IRD, Mexico. Contributors (continued)Contributors (continued)
  4. 4. 55thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 201055thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010 Methodology usedMethodology used 17 study sites were selected located in: 1. Rendina Basin Basilicata - Italy • Nestos Basin Maggana - Greece • Crete - Greece • Mação - Portugal • Gois - Portugal • Guadalentin Basin Murcia - Spain • Konya Karapinar plain - Turkey • Eskisehir Plain - Turkey • Novij Saratov - Russia • Djanybek - Russia • Zeuss Koutine - Tunisia • Boteti Area - Botswana • Santiago Island - Cape Verde • Mamora Sehoul - Morocco • Loess Plateau - China • Secano Interior - Chile • Cointzio catchment - Mexico.
  5. 5. 55thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 201055thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010 MethodologyMethodology usedused The following processes or causes were identified as affecting land desertification in the study sites: Soil erosion Soil salinization Water stress Overgrazing Forest fires
  6. 6. 55thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 201055thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010 Methodology usedMethodology used A list of 72 candidate indicators has been identified using the following sources: United Nations Committees for Combating Desertification (UNCCD) – National Action Plans European Environmental Agency (EEA) - DPSIR (Driving forces, Pressure, State, Impact, Responses indicators) MEDALUS projects - Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use MEDRAP – Mediterranean Desertification Regional Action Plan DESERTLINKS – DIS4ME Local stakeholders
  7. 7. 55thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 201055thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010 Each indicator has been described using existing classes based on existing classification systems and research results. Weighing indices have been assigned in each class. Methodology usedMethodology used CLIMATE <12 12-15 15-18 18-21 >21Annual air Temperature (o C) 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0 <280 280-650 650 -1000 >1000Annual rainfall (mm) 4 2 1.5 1.0 <50 50-75 75-100 100-125 125-150 >150BG aridity index 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 <500 500-800 800-1200 1200-1500 >1500Annual pot. evapotranspiration (mm) 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0 <0.19 0.20-0.39 0.40-0.59 0.60-0.79 0.80-0.99 1.00-1.19 >1.20Rain seasonality 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 <60 60 -90 91-120 121-160 >160Rain erosivity (mm/h) 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0 WATER <400 400-800 800-1500 >1500Water quality ( μS) 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.0 Adequate Moderate Low NoneWater quantity 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.0
  8. 8. 55thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 201055thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010 Questionnaires have been prepared including all the indicators corresponding to the identified processes or causes. A manual for describing indicators has been prepared for conducting field survey and collecting data. A harmonized data basis has been developed including information from 1641 field sites. Methodology used Field site
  9. 9. 55thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 201055thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010 Methodology usedMethodology used A forward stepwise multiple regression analysis was applied for each process or cause with dependent variable the desertification risk and independent variables all the indicators assigned for each process using the following linear model:   Υ = β0 + β1Χ1 + β2Χ2 + …………. + βκΧκ. Where: Y is the dependent variable of desertification risk, β0 is the Υ intercept β1, β2, etc. are slopes of the regression plane, X1, X2, etc. are the independent variables of indicators used.
  10. 10. 55thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 201055thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010 Type of environmentally sensitive area Degree of soil erosion Desertification risk Assigned weighing indices Critical Very severe, severe Very high 5 Moderate, slight High 4 no erosion moderate 3 Fragile Very severe High 4 Severe, moderate Moderate 3 Slight, no erosion Low 2 Potential Very severe, severe Moderate 3 Moderate, Low 2 Slight, no erosion No risk 1 Non-threatened Very severe, severe, moderate Low 2 Slight, no erosion No risk 1 Methodology usedMethodology used Definition of desertification risk for the degradation processes: (a) water erosion, (b) tillage erosion, (c) forest fires, (d) overgrazing
  11. 11. 55thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 201055thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010 Distribution of data collected for the various processes and causes with the corresponding land uses, and distribution in the study sites Degradation process Land use Study sites Field sites Number of indicators used Soil erosion Agriculture 9 477 49 Pasture 8 244 49 Forests 6 85 49 Soil salinization Agriculture, natural vegetation 5 258 27 Water stress Agriculture, natural vegetation 5 258 50 Overgrazing Natural vegetation, agriculture 6 265 44 Forest fires Natural vegetation 4 85 29 Methodology used
  12. 12. 55thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 201055thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010 Results obtainedResults obtained Assessing desertification risk due to water erosion in cropland Analyzed candidate indicators: 49 Important indicators: 17
  13. 13. 55thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 201055thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010 Results obtainedResults obtained Assessing desertification risk due to water erosion in pastures Analyzed candidate indicators: 49 Important indicators: 15
  14. 14. 55thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 201055thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010 Assessing desertification risk due to water erosion in forests Analyzed candidate indicators: 49 Important indicators: 10 Results obtainedResults obtained
  15. 15. 55thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 201055thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010 Assessing desertification risk due to tillage erosion Analyzed candidate indicators: 17 Important indicators: 10 Results obtainedResults obtained
  16. 16. 55thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 201055thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010 Assessing desertification risk due to soil salinization Analyzed candidate indicators: 27 Important indicators: 9 Results obtainedResults obtained
  17. 17. 55thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 201055thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010 Assessing desertification risk due to water stress Analyzed candidate indicators: 50 Important indicators: 12 Results obtainedResults obtained
  18. 18. 55thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 201055thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010 Assessing desertification risk due to overgrazing Analyzed candidate indicators: 44 Important indicators: 12 Results obtainedResults obtained
  19. 19. 55thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 201055thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010 Assessing desertification risk due to forest fires Analyzed candidate indicators: 29 Important indicators: 8 Results obtainedResults obtained
  20. 20. 55thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 201055thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010
  21. 21. 55thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 201055thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010 Input data for selected landInput data for selected land degradation processdegradation process
  22. 22. 55thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 201055thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010 Output data for selected landOutput data for selected land degradation processdegradation process
  23. 23. 55thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 201055thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010 Main ConclusionsMain Conclusions The analysis of the data has shown that a short list of indicators ranging from 8 to 17 may be used to assess land desertification risk. The comparative analysis has shown that indicators may be used world wide for assessing desertification risk. The derived methodology may be used to assess the efficiency and efficacy of different land management practices and degradation monitoring techniques for combating desertification at farm level and given the pertinent information at even regional level. The derived system of indicators may enable land users to test different scenarios for ecosystem vulnerability in order to assess critical stress factors and their impacts on desertification.
  24. 24. 55thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 201055thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010
  25. 25. 55thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 201055thth Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010Plenary Meeting, Xi’an, China, 11-18 Oct 2010 THANK YOU!THANK YOU!

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