I am a legend: Hacking Hearthstone with machine learning - Defcon 22 talk slides
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I am a legend: Hacking Hearthstone with machine learning - Defcon 22 talk slides

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Slides from our talk at Defcon 22 about Blizzard new game Hearthstone. For more information: http://www.elie.net/hs ...

Slides from our talk at Defcon 22 about Blizzard new game Hearthstone. For more information: http://www.elie.net/hs

Talk Abstract
---------------

Want to become a legend at Hearthstone -- Blizzard's new blockbuster collecting card game -- or simply learn how to play better? Then pull up a chair by the hearth and join us for a talk about Hearthstone mechanics and how to improve your chance of winning using machine learning and data mining. This talk is packed with examples that show how to use the tools that we are releasing at Defcon.

First, we will show you how to uncover the most undervalued cards by building a pricing model reflecting the cards' abilities. Next we will explain how decks can be optimized by tweaking their mana curve to maximize mana efficiency. Finally, we will cover how to predict with relatively good accuracy what opponents are likely to play turn-by-turn by data-mining game replays and building a predictive model that uses that information.

Even if you've never heard of Hearthstone before (shame on you!), you should still come to to the talk. That's because it's fun and the techniques discussed can help you improve your performance on other collectible cards games including Magic.

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I am a legend: Hacking Hearthstone with machine learning - Defcon 22 talk slides Presentation Transcript

  • 1. I am a legend Celine & Elie Bursztein https://www.elie.net/hs
  • 2. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Digital Collectible Card Game Released by Blizzard in 2014 Based of World of Warcraft universe
  • 3. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Sometimes too interesting leads to un-intended consequences Painting by http://www.jason-w.com/blog/the-fall-of-lordaeron
  • 4. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Game complexity generates exploitable biases
  • 5. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Outline
  • 6. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Outline 1. Finding undervalued cards
  • 7. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Outline 1. Finding undervalued cards 2. Predicting opponent deck
  • 8. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Outline 1. Finding undervalued cards 2. Predicting opponent deck 3. Predicting the game outcome
  • 9. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Outline 1. Finding undervalued cards 2. Predicting opponent deck 3. Predicting the game outcome 4. Incoming alien invasion (or not)
  • 10. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
  • 11. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs You hero
  • 12. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs You hero Opponent hero
  • 13. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Hero health
  • 14. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Deck
  • 15. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs hand
  • 16. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs hand
  • 17. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs mana pool
  • 18. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Weapon
  • 19. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Minions
  • 20. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs video of a turn
  • 21. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs video of a turn
  • 22. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
  • 23. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
  • 24. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Mana
  • 25. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Mana Attack
  • 26. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Mana Attack Health
  • 27. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Card special abilities is what makes the game complex and interesting
  • 28. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Card special abilities is what makes the game complex and interesting
  • 29. Finding undervalued cards
  • 30. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Model assumptions
  • 31. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 1. Mana cost is proportional to card power Model assumptions
  • 32. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 1. Mana cost is proportional to card power 2. The power of cards roughly increase linearly Model assumptions
  • 33. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 1. Mana cost is proportional to card power 2. The power of cards roughly increase linearly 3. Card effects have constant price Model assumptions
  • 34. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 1. Mana cost is proportional to card power 2. The power of cards roughly increase linearly 3. Card effects have constant price 4. A card have an intrinsic value Model assumptions
  • 35. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 1. Mana cost is proportional to card power 2. The power of cards roughly increase linearly 3. Card effects have constant price 4. A card have an intrinsic value 5. The value of the card is the sum of its attribute Model assumptions
  • 36. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs = +mana attack +health intrinsic value
  • 37. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs = +mana attack +health intrinsic value 4 4a + i= + 5h
  • 38. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
  • 39. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 6 = 6a + 7h + i
  • 40. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 6 = 6a + 7h + i
  • 41. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 6 = 6a + 7h + i 4 = 4a + 5h + i
  • 42. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 6 = 6a + 7h + i 4 = 4a + 5h + i /6
  • 43. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 6 = 6a + 7h + i 1 = 1a + 1.16h + i 4 = 4a + 5h + i /6
  • 44. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 6 = 6a + 7h + i 1 = 1a + 1.16h + i 4 = 4a + 5h + i /6 /4
  • 45. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 6 = 6a + 7h + i 1 = 1a + 1.16h + i 4 = 4a + 5h + i 1 = 1a + 1.25h + i /6 /4
  • 46. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
  • 47. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 4 = 6d
  • 48. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 4 = 6d 1 mana = 1.5 dmg
  • 49. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 4 = 6d 1 mana = 1.5 dmg
  • 50. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 4 = 6d 10 = 10d 1 mana = 1.5 dmg
  • 51. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 4 = 6d 10 = 10d 1 mana = 1 dmg 1 mana = 1.5 dmg
  • 52. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 4 = 6d 10 = 10d 1 mana = 1 dmg Pre nerf (8 mana) 1 mana = 1.5 dmg
  • 53. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 4 = 6d 10 = 10d 1 mana = 1 dmg 8 = 10d Pre nerf (8 mana) 1 mana = 1.5 dmg
  • 54. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 4 = 6d 10 = 10d 1 mana = 1 dmg 8 = 10d 1 mana = 1.25 dmg Pre nerf (8 mana) 1 mana = 1.5 dmg
  • 55. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
  • 56. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 10 damages 4 damages imply
  • 57. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 15 damages 6 damages 10 damages 4 damages imply imply
  • 58. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Hunting for under-valued cards
  • 59. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs How to find undervalued cards? Model cards
  • 60. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs How to find undervalued cards? Model cards Reverse coefficients
  • 61. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs How to find undervalued cards? Model cards Compute cards real value Reverse coefficients
  • 62. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs How to find undervalued cards? Model cards Compute cards real value Reverse coefficients Profit :)
  • 63. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Simple 5 cards example Use simpler coefficients Approach illustrated
  • 64. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Charge
  • 65. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Charge Divine shield
  • 66. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
  • 67. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 4 = 4a + 3h + c + i
  • 68. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 4 = 4a + 3h + c + i 6 = 5a + 2h + c + i 6 = 4a + 2h + c + d + i 3 = 3a + 1h + d + i 1 = 1a + 1h + d + i
  • 69. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversing attribute cost
  • 70. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversing attribute cost
  • 71. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversing attribute cost mana Atk Health Charge Divine Intrinsic
  • 72. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversing attribute cost mana Atk Health Charge Divine Intrinsic 4 4 3 1 0 1
  • 73. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversing attribute cost mana Atk Health Charge Divine Intrinsic 4 4 3 1 0 1 6 5 2 1 0 1
  • 74. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversing attribute cost mana Atk Health Charge Divine Intrinsic 4 4 3 1 0 1 6 5 2 1 0 1 6 4 2 1 1 1
  • 75. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversing attribute cost mana Atk Health Charge Divine Intrinsic 4 4 3 1 0 1 6 5 2 1 0 1 6 4 2 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 1 1
  • 76. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversing attribute cost mana Atk Health Charge Divine Intrinsic 4 4 3 1 0 1 6 5 2 1 0 1 6 4 2 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1
  • 77. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversing attribute cost mana Atk Health Charge Divine Intrinsic 4 4 3 1 0 1 6 5 2 1 0 1 6 4 2 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 Least square
  • 78. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversing attribute cost mana Atk Health Charge Divine Intrinsic 4 4 3 1 0 1 6 5 2 1 0 1 6 4 2 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 Atk Health Charge Divine Intrinsic = = = = = 1 -1 2 1 1 Least square
  • 79. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversing attribute cost mana Atk Health Charge Divine Intrinsic 4 4 3 1 0 1 6 5 2 1 0 1 6 4 2 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 Atk Health Charge Divine Intrinsic = = = = = 1 -1 2 1 1 Warning these example attribute costs are bogus as we didn’t use enough cards Least square
  • 80. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Finding card real price using reversed coefficients Atk = 1 Health = -1Charge = 2 Divine = 1 Intrinsic = 1Coeffs:
  • 81. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Finding card real price using reversed coefficients 4a + 2h + c + d + i Atk = 1 Health = -1Charge = 2 Divine = 1 Intrinsic = 1Coeffs:
  • 82. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Finding card real price using reversed coefficients 4a + 2h + c + d + i 4*1 + 2*-1 + 2 + 1 + 1 = 6 Atk = 1 Health = -1Charge = 2 Divine = 1 Intrinsic = 1Coeffs:
  • 83. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Finding card real price using reversed coefficients 4a + 2h + c + d + i 4*1 + 2*-1 + 2 + 1 + 1 = 6 Atk = 1 Health = -1Charge = 2 Divine = 1 Intrinsic = 1Coeffs:
  • 84. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Finding card real price using reversed coefficients 4a + 2h + c + d + i 4*1 + 2*-1 + 2 + 1 + 1 = 6 1a + 1h + d + i Atk = 1 Health = -1Charge = 2 Divine = 1 Intrinsic = 1Coeffs:
  • 85. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Finding card real price using reversed coefficients 4a + 2h + c + d + i 4*1 + 2*-1 + 2 + 1 + 1 = 6 1a + 1h + d + i 1*1 + 1*-1 + 1 + 1 = 2 Atk = 1 Health = -1Charge = 2 Divine = 1 Intrinsic = 1Coeffs:
  • 86. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Finding card real price using reversed coefficients 4a + 2h + c + d + i 4*1 + 2*-1 + 2 + 1 + 1 = 6 1a + 1h + d + i 1*1 + 1*-1 + 1 + 1 = 2 Atk = 1 Health = -1Charge = 2 Divine = 1 Intrinsic = 1Coeffs: Under-valued card!
  • 87. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Redit story Thanks you for the feedback! https://www.elie.net/hs
  • 88. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Modeling dependance between characteristics Thanks to Niels for the idea
  • 89. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Charge = Atk * charge coeff Windfury = Atk * windfury coeff Divine = ? (health related?) ! Modeling dependance between characteristics Thanks to Niels for the idea
  • 90. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Charge = Atk * charge coeff Windfury = Atk * windfury coeff Divine = ? (health related?) ! Modeling dependance between characteristics Thanks to Niels for the idea Model also use a card budget: 2*mana + 1
  • 91. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs oi Et voila!
  • 92. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversed budget coefficients Effect cost per point Destroy minion 10.63 Board damage 3.69 Draw card 3.68 Divine Shield 2.74 Freeze 2.04 Silence 1.66 Damage 1.64 Durability 1.22 Stealth 1.21 Attack 1.14 Taunt 1.02 WindFury 0.96 SpellPower 0.93 Health 0.81 Battlecry heal 0.69 Battlecry self hero heal 0.68 Charge 0.65 Intrinsic value 0.32
  • 93. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversed budget coefficients Effect cost per point Destroy minion 10.63 Board damage 3.69 Draw card 3.68 Divine Shield 2.74 Freeze 2.04 Silence 1.66 Damage 1.64 Durability 1.22 Stealth 1.21 Attack 1.14 Taunt 1.02 WindFury 0.96 SpellPower 0.93 Health 0.81 Battlecry heal 0.69 Battlecry self hero heal 0.68 Charge 0.65 Intrinsic value 0.32 2 coeff point ~ 1 mana point
  • 94. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversed budget coefficients Effect cost per point Destroy minion 10.63 Board damage 3.69 Draw card 3.68 Divine Shield 2.74 Freeze 2.04 Silence 1.66 Damage 1.64 Durability 1.22 Stealth 1.21 Attack 1.14 Taunt 1.02 WindFury 0.96 SpellPower 0.93 Health 0.81 Battlecry heal 0.69 Battlecry self hero heal 0.68 Charge 0.65 Intrinsic value 0.32 Effect Cost per point Opponent draw card -3.97 Discard cards -2.67 Overload -1.68 Self hero damage -0.54 2 coeff point ~ 1 mana point
  • 95. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversed budget coefficients Effect cost per point Destroy minion 10.63 Board damage 3.69 Draw card 3.68 Divine Shield 2.74 Freeze 2.04 Silence 1.66 Damage 1.64 Durability 1.22 Stealth 1.21 Attack 1.14 Taunt 1.02 WindFury 0.96 SpellPower 0.93 Health 0.81 Battlecry heal 0.69 Battlecry self hero heal 0.68 Charge 0.65 Intrinsic value 0.32 Effect Cost per point Opponent draw card -3.97 Discard cards -2.67 Overload -1.68 Self hero damage -0.54 2 coeff point ~ 1 mana point
  • 96. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Costestimatedbythealgorithm(inmana) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Cost assigned by Blizzard (in mana) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
  • 97. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Costestimatedbythealgorithm(inmana) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Cost assigned by Blizzard (in mana) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 undervalued cards
  • 98. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Costestimatedbythealgorithm(inmana) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Cost assigned by Blizzard (in mana) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 undervalued cards overpriced cards
  • 99. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Model found a couple of clearly undervalued cards :) Costestimatedbythealgorithm(inmana) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Cost assigned by Blizzard (in mana) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 undervalued cards overpriced cards
  • 100. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Most under-valued cards (~130 cards) Full data https://www.elie.net/tools/hearthstone/cards_value
  • 101. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Taking it to the next level
  • 102. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs • 100 000 games from May to June • Thanks to … for it :) • Need a longer term solution Game replays
  • 103. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Pricing cards with unique effects
  • 104. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
  • 105. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
  • 106. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Cards in hand
  • 107. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Health Real Value 1 1.3 2 1.9 3 2.5 4 3 5 3.6 6 4.1 7 4.7 8 5.3 9 5.9 Cards in hand
  • 108. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.6 4.2 4.7 5.3 5.9 Overpriced Fair Undervalued NumofTwilightDrakesmade 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Drake Health 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Average real value 3.7
  • 109. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Twilight drake price is fair 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.6 4.2 4.7 5.3 5.9 Overpriced Fair Undervalued NumofTwilightDrakesmade 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Drake Health 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Average real value 3.7
  • 110. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
  • 111. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
  • 112. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Cards played this turn
  • 113. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Edwin size Real value 2/2 1.09 4/4 3.04 6/6 4.98 8/8 6.92 10/10 8.87 12/12 10.51 14/14 12.75 16/16 14.70 18/18 16.64 20/20 18.58 22/22 20.53 Cards played this turn
  • 114. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 1.1 3.0 Over-priced Fair Undervalued 5.0 6.9 8.9 10.8 12.8 14.7 16.6 18.6 20.5 22.5 24.4 26.4 NumofVanCleefmade 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 VanCleef size (atk/hp) 2/2 4/4 6/6 8/8 10/10 12/12 14/14 16/16 18/18 20/20 22/22 24/24 26/26 28/28
  • 115. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 1.1 3.0 Over-priced Fair Undervalued 5.0 6.9 8.9 10.8 12.8 14.7 16.6 18.6 20.5 22.5 24.4 26.4 NumofVanCleefmade 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 VanCleef size (atk/hp) 2/2 4/4 6/6 8/8 10/10 12/12 14/14 16/16 18/18 20/20 22/22 24/24 26/26 28/28 Average real value 8.1
  • 116. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs VanCleef is undervalued, a fair price is probably between 5 and 7 mana 1.1 3.0 Over-priced Fair Undervalued 5.0 6.9 8.9 10.8 12.8 14.7 16.6 18.6 20.5 22.5 24.4 26.4 NumofVanCleefmade 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 VanCleef size (atk/hp) 2/2 4/4 6/6 8/8 10/10 12/12 14/14 16/16 18/18 20/20 22/22 24/24 26/26 28/28 Average real value 8.1
  • 117. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
  • 118. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
  • 119. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Num Minions
  • 120. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Num Minions Damage Value 4 6.5 8 13.9 12 21.3 16 28.6 20 36.0 24 43.4 28 50.7 Board damage coeff
  • 121. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Num Minions
  • 122. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Num Minions Normal damage coeff Damage Real Value 4 2.43835 8 5.71835 12 8.99835 16 12.27835 20 15.55835 24 18.83835 28 22.11835
  • 123. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Flamestrike price is fair Don’t split board damage and single damage coeff 2.4 5.7 9.0 12.3 15.6 18.8 22.1 Over-priced Undervalued NumofFlamestikecasted 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Potential damage 4 8 12 16 20 24 28
  • 124. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Predicting cards Predicting opponent deck
  • 125. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 
 Celine
  • 126. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 
 Celine Our tool :)
  • 127. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs My deck with card tracking Game metrics Opponent cards played so far Opponent next cards prediction Real time dashboard
  • 128. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Game metrics Me Opponent
  • 129. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs My deck T = Total P = Played D = Dead
  • 130. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs My opponent T = Total P = Played D = Dead
  • 131. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Predictions
  • 132. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Game data from
  • 133. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Sniff packets Game data from
  • 134. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Sniff packets OCRGame data from
  • 135. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Sniff packets OCR Debug log Game data from
  • 136. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Sniff packets OCR Debug log Game data from Real logs from Blizzard like in WoW ?
  • 137. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Demo video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--byrlBQLCY
  • 138. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Demo video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--byrlBQLCY
  • 139. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Turn by Turn History
  • 140. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Available on Github LightWind/hearthstone-dashboard
  • 141. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Naxx new cards made the meta to unstable to be predicted accurately for now
  • 142. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Anatomy of our prediction system Model card affinities
  • 143. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Anatomy of our prediction system Model card affinities Evaluate affinities
  • 144. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Anatomy of our prediction system Model card affinities Learn from replays Evaluate affinities
  • 145. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Anatomy of our prediction system Model card affinities Learn from replays Evaluate affinities Profit :)
  • 146. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Modeling cards affinities
  • 147. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Cards bigrams
  • 148. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Cards bigrams
  • 149. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Cards bigrams
  • 150. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Cards un-ordered bigrams
  • 151. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Evaluate cards affinities
  • 152. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Played
  • 153. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Played
  • 154. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Played Bi-grams
  • 155. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Played 500 Bi-grams
  • 156. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Played 500 350 Bi-grams
  • 157. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Played 500 400 350 Bi-grams
  • 158. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Played 400 500 400 350 Bi-grams
  • 159. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Played 400 500 400 350 Bi-grams Ranked Predictions
  • 160. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Played 400 500 400 350 Bi-grams 750 Ranked Predictions
  • 161. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Played 400 500 400 350 Bi-grams 500 750 Ranked Predictions
  • 162. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Played 400 500 400 350 Bi-grams 500 750 400 Ranked Predictions
  • 163. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Training: 45000 replays Testing : 5000 replays 1 model per class Training and evaluation
  • 164. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Suspense is killing me
  • 165. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 97% success rate for best prediction by turn 3
  • 166. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Best prediction Average 10th prediction Probabilitypredictionswillbeplayed 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Turn 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
  • 167. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Best prediction Average 10th prediction Probabilitypredictionswillbeplayed 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Turn 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
  • 168. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Predicting game outcome How to optimize deck for mana-throughput Hero powers comparison Comparing decks typesWhat’s next?
  • 169. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Thank you! https://www.elie.net/hs & @elie/@cealtea on Twitter http://swiatgry.pl/tapety/pc/5488,hearthstone_heroes_of_warcraft