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I am a legend
Celine & Elie Bursztein
https://www.elie.net/hs
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Digital Collectible Card Game
Released by Bliz...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Sometimes too interesting leads to
un-intended...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Game complexity generates exploitable biases
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Outline
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Outline
1. Finding undervalued cards
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Outline
1. Finding undervalued cards
2. Predic...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Outline
1. Finding undervalued cards
2. Predic...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Outline
1. Finding undervalued cards
2. Predic...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
You hero
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
You hero
Opponent
hero
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Hero health
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Deck
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
hand
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
hand
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
mana pool
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Weapon
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Minions
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
video of a turn
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
video of a turn
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Mana
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Mana
Attack
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Mana
Attack Health
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Card special abilities is what makes the game
...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Card special abilities is what makes the game
...
Finding undervalued cards
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Model assumptions
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
1. Mana cost is proportional to card power
Mod...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
1. Mana cost is proportional to card power
2. ...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
1. Mana cost is proportional to card power
2. ...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
1. Mana cost is proportional to card power
2. ...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
1. Mana cost is proportional to card power
2. ...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
= +mana attack +health intrinsic value
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
= +mana attack +health intrinsic value
4 4a + ...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
6 = 6a + 7h + i
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
6 = 6a + 7h + i
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
6 = 6a + 7h + i 4 = 4a + 5h + i
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
6 = 6a + 7h + i 4 = 4a + 5h + i
/6
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
6 = 6a + 7h + i
1 = 1a + 1.16h + i
4 = 4a + 5h...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
6 = 6a + 7h + i
1 = 1a + 1.16h + i
4 = 4a + 5h...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
6 = 6a + 7h + i
1 = 1a + 1.16h + i
4 = 4a + 5h...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
4 = 6d
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
4 = 6d 1 mana = 1.5 dmg
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
4 = 6d 1 mana = 1.5 dmg
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
4 = 6d
10 = 10d
1 mana = 1.5 dmg
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
4 = 6d
10 = 10d 1 mana = 1 dmg
1 mana = 1.5 dmg
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
4 = 6d
10 = 10d 1 mana = 1 dmg
Pre nerf (8 man...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
4 = 6d
10 = 10d 1 mana = 1 dmg
8 = 10d
Pre ner...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
4 = 6d
10 = 10d 1 mana = 1 dmg
8 = 10d 1 mana ...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
10 damages 4 damages
imply
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
15 damages 6 damages
10 damages 4 damages
impl...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Hunting for under-valued cards
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
How to find undervalued cards?
Model cards
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
How to find undervalued cards?
Model cards
Reve...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
How to find undervalued cards?
Model cards
Comp...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
How to find undervalued cards?
Model cards
Comp...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Simple 5 cards example
Use simpler coefficients...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Charge
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Charge Divine shield
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
4 = 4a + 3h + c + i
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
4 = 4a + 3h + c + i
6 = 5a + 2h + c + i
6 = 4a...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Reversing attribute cost
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Reversing attribute cost
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Reversing attribute cost
mana Atk Health Charg...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Reversing attribute cost
mana Atk Health Charg...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Reversing attribute cost
mana Atk Health Charg...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Reversing attribute cost
mana Atk Health Charg...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Reversing attribute cost
mana Atk Health Charg...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Reversing attribute cost
mana Atk Health Charg...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Reversing attribute cost
mana Atk Health Charg...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Reversing attribute cost
mana Atk Health Charg...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Reversing attribute cost
mana Atk Health Charg...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Finding card real price using reversed coeffici...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Finding card real price using reversed coeffici...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Finding card real price using reversed coeffici...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Finding card real price using reversed coeffici...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Finding card real price using reversed coeffici...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Finding card real price using reversed coeffici...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Finding card real price using reversed coeffici...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Redit story
Thanks you
for the feedback!
https...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Modeling dependance
between characteristics
Th...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Charge = Atk * charge coeff
Windfury = Atk * w...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Charge = Atk * charge coeff
Windfury = Atk * w...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
oi
Et voila!
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Reversed budget coefficients
Effect cost per po...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Reversed budget coefficients
Effect cost per po...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Reversed budget coefficients
Effect cost per po...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Reversed budget coefficients
Effect cost per po...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Costestimatedbythealgorithm(inmana)
0
1
2
3
4
...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Costestimatedbythealgorithm(inmana)
0
1
2
3
4
...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Costestimatedbythealgorithm(inmana)
0
1
2
3
4
...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Model found a couple of clearly undervalued ca...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Most under-valued cards (~130 cards)
Full data...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Taking it to the next level
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
• 100 000 games from May to June
• Thanks to …...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Pricing cards with unique effects
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Cards in
hand
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Health Real Value
1 1.3
2 1.9
3 2.5
4 3
5 3.6
...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
1.3
1.9
2.5
3.0
3.6
4.2
4.7
5.3
5.9
Overpriced...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Twilight drake price is fair
1.3
1.9
2.5
3.0
3...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Cards
played
this turn
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Edwin size Real value
2/2 1.09
4/4 3.04
6/6 4....
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
1.1
3.0
Over-priced
Fair
Undervalued
5.0
6.9
8...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
1.1
3.0
Over-priced
Fair
Undervalued
5.0
6.9
8...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
VanCleef is undervalued, a fair price is proba...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Num
Minions
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Num
Minions
Damage Value
4 6.5
8 13.9
12 21.3
...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Num
Minions
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Num
Minions
Normal damage coeff
Damage Real Va...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Flamestrike price is fair
Don’t split board da...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Predicting cards
Predicting opponent deck
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs


Celine
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs


Celine
Our tool :)
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
My deck with
card tracking
Game metrics
Oppone...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Game metrics
Me
Opponent
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
My deck
T = Total
P = Played
D = Dead
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
My opponent
T = Total
P = Played
D = Dead
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Predictions
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Game data from
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Sniff packets
Game data from
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Sniff packets
OCRGame data from
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Sniff packets
OCR
Debug log
Game data from
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Sniff packets
OCR
Debug log
Game data from
Rea...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Demo video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--b...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Demo video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--b...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Turn by Turn History
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Available on Github
LightWind/hearthstone-dash...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Naxx new cards made the meta to unstable to be...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Anatomy of our prediction system
Model card af...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Anatomy of our prediction system
Model card af...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Anatomy of our prediction system
Model card af...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Anatomy of our prediction system
Model card af...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Modeling cards affinities
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Cards bigrams
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Cards bigrams
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Cards bigrams
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Cards un-ordered bigrams
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Evaluate cards affinities
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Played
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Played
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Played Bi-grams
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Played
500
Bi-grams
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Played
500
350
Bi-grams
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Played
500
400
350
Bi-grams
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Played
400
500
400
350
Bi-grams
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Played
400
500
400
350
Bi-grams Ranked Predict...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Played
400
500
400
350
Bi-grams
750
Ranked Pre...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Played
400
500
400
350
Bi-grams
500
750
Ranked...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Played
400
500
400
350
Bi-grams
500
750
400
Ra...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Training: 45000 replays
Testing : 5000 replays...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Suspense is killing me
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
97% success rate for best prediction by turn 3
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Best prediction
Average
10th prediction
Probab...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Best prediction
Average
10th prediction
Probab...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Predicting game outcome
How to optimize deck f...
Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
Thank you!
https://www.elie.net/hs & @elie/@ce...
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I am a legend: Hacking Hearthstone with machine learning - Defcon 22 talk slides

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Slides from our talk at Defcon 22 about Blizzard new game Hearthstone. For more information: http://www.elie.net/hs

Talk Abstract
---------------

Want to become a legend at Hearthstone -- Blizzard's new blockbuster collecting card game -- or simply learn how to play better? Then pull up a chair by the hearth and join us for a talk about Hearthstone mechanics and how to improve your chance of winning using machine learning and data mining. This talk is packed with examples that show how to use the tools that we are releasing at Defcon.

First, we will show you how to uncover the most undervalued cards by building a pricing model reflecting the cards' abilities. Next we will explain how decks can be optimized by tweaking their mana curve to maximize mana efficiency. Finally, we will cover how to predict with relatively good accuracy what opponents are likely to play turn-by-turn by data-mining game replays and building a predictive model that uses that information.

Even if you've never heard of Hearthstone before (shame on you!), you should still come to to the talk. That's because it's fun and the techniques discussed can help you improve your performance on other collectible cards games including Magic.

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Transcript of "I am a legend: Hacking Hearthstone with machine learning - Defcon 22 talk slides"

  1. 1. I am a legend Celine & Elie Bursztein https://www.elie.net/hs
  2. 2. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Digital Collectible Card Game Released by Blizzard in 2014 Based of World of Warcraft universe
  3. 3. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Sometimes too interesting leads to un-intended consequences Painting by http://www.jason-w.com/blog/the-fall-of-lordaeron
  4. 4. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Game complexity generates exploitable biases
  5. 5. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Outline
  6. 6. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Outline 1. Finding undervalued cards
  7. 7. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Outline 1. Finding undervalued cards 2. Predicting opponent deck
  8. 8. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Outline 1. Finding undervalued cards 2. Predicting opponent deck 3. Predicting the game outcome
  9. 9. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Outline 1. Finding undervalued cards 2. Predicting opponent deck 3. Predicting the game outcome 4. Incoming alien invasion (or not)
  10. 10. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
  11. 11. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs You hero
  12. 12. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs You hero Opponent hero
  13. 13. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Hero health
  14. 14. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Deck
  15. 15. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs hand
  16. 16. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs hand
  17. 17. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs mana pool
  18. 18. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Weapon
  19. 19. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Minions
  20. 20. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs video of a turn
  21. 21. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs video of a turn
  22. 22. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
  23. 23. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
  24. 24. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Mana
  25. 25. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Mana Attack
  26. 26. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Mana Attack Health
  27. 27. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Card special abilities is what makes the game complex and interesting
  28. 28. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Card special abilities is what makes the game complex and interesting
  29. 29. Finding undervalued cards
  30. 30. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Model assumptions
  31. 31. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 1. Mana cost is proportional to card power Model assumptions
  32. 32. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 1. Mana cost is proportional to card power 2. The power of cards roughly increase linearly Model assumptions
  33. 33. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 1. Mana cost is proportional to card power 2. The power of cards roughly increase linearly 3. Card effects have constant price Model assumptions
  34. 34. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 1. Mana cost is proportional to card power 2. The power of cards roughly increase linearly 3. Card effects have constant price 4. A card have an intrinsic value Model assumptions
  35. 35. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 1. Mana cost is proportional to card power 2. The power of cards roughly increase linearly 3. Card effects have constant price 4. A card have an intrinsic value 5. The value of the card is the sum of its attribute Model assumptions
  36. 36. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs = +mana attack +health intrinsic value
  37. 37. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs = +mana attack +health intrinsic value 4 4a + i= + 5h
  38. 38. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
  39. 39. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 6 = 6a + 7h + i
  40. 40. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 6 = 6a + 7h + i
  41. 41. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 6 = 6a + 7h + i 4 = 4a + 5h + i
  42. 42. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 6 = 6a + 7h + i 4 = 4a + 5h + i /6
  43. 43. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 6 = 6a + 7h + i 1 = 1a + 1.16h + i 4 = 4a + 5h + i /6
  44. 44. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 6 = 6a + 7h + i 1 = 1a + 1.16h + i 4 = 4a + 5h + i /6 /4
  45. 45. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 6 = 6a + 7h + i 1 = 1a + 1.16h + i 4 = 4a + 5h + i 1 = 1a + 1.25h + i /6 /4
  46. 46. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
  47. 47. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 4 = 6d
  48. 48. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 4 = 6d 1 mana = 1.5 dmg
  49. 49. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 4 = 6d 1 mana = 1.5 dmg
  50. 50. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 4 = 6d 10 = 10d 1 mana = 1.5 dmg
  51. 51. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 4 = 6d 10 = 10d 1 mana = 1 dmg 1 mana = 1.5 dmg
  52. 52. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 4 = 6d 10 = 10d 1 mana = 1 dmg Pre nerf (8 mana) 1 mana = 1.5 dmg
  53. 53. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 4 = 6d 10 = 10d 1 mana = 1 dmg 8 = 10d Pre nerf (8 mana) 1 mana = 1.5 dmg
  54. 54. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 4 = 6d 10 = 10d 1 mana = 1 dmg 8 = 10d 1 mana = 1.25 dmg Pre nerf (8 mana) 1 mana = 1.5 dmg
  55. 55. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
  56. 56. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 10 damages 4 damages imply
  57. 57. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 15 damages 6 damages 10 damages 4 damages imply imply
  58. 58. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Hunting for under-valued cards
  59. 59. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs How to find undervalued cards? Model cards
  60. 60. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs How to find undervalued cards? Model cards Reverse coefficients
  61. 61. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs How to find undervalued cards? Model cards Compute cards real value Reverse coefficients
  62. 62. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs How to find undervalued cards? Model cards Compute cards real value Reverse coefficients Profit :)
  63. 63. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Simple 5 cards example Use simpler coefficients Approach illustrated
  64. 64. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Charge
  65. 65. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Charge Divine shield
  66. 66. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
  67. 67. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 4 = 4a + 3h + c + i
  68. 68. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 4 = 4a + 3h + c + i 6 = 5a + 2h + c + i 6 = 4a + 2h + c + d + i 3 = 3a + 1h + d + i 1 = 1a + 1h + d + i
  69. 69. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversing attribute cost
  70. 70. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversing attribute cost
  71. 71. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversing attribute cost mana Atk Health Charge Divine Intrinsic
  72. 72. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversing attribute cost mana Atk Health Charge Divine Intrinsic 4 4 3 1 0 1
  73. 73. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversing attribute cost mana Atk Health Charge Divine Intrinsic 4 4 3 1 0 1 6 5 2 1 0 1
  74. 74. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversing attribute cost mana Atk Health Charge Divine Intrinsic 4 4 3 1 0 1 6 5 2 1 0 1 6 4 2 1 1 1
  75. 75. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversing attribute cost mana Atk Health Charge Divine Intrinsic 4 4 3 1 0 1 6 5 2 1 0 1 6 4 2 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 1 1
  76. 76. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversing attribute cost mana Atk Health Charge Divine Intrinsic 4 4 3 1 0 1 6 5 2 1 0 1 6 4 2 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1
  77. 77. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversing attribute cost mana Atk Health Charge Divine Intrinsic 4 4 3 1 0 1 6 5 2 1 0 1 6 4 2 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 Least square
  78. 78. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversing attribute cost mana Atk Health Charge Divine Intrinsic 4 4 3 1 0 1 6 5 2 1 0 1 6 4 2 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 Atk Health Charge Divine Intrinsic = = = = = 1 -1 2 1 1 Least square
  79. 79. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversing attribute cost mana Atk Health Charge Divine Intrinsic 4 4 3 1 0 1 6 5 2 1 0 1 6 4 2 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 Atk Health Charge Divine Intrinsic = = = = = 1 -1 2 1 1 Warning these example attribute costs are bogus as we didn’t use enough cards Least square
  80. 80. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Finding card real price using reversed coefficients Atk = 1 Health = -1Charge = 2 Divine = 1 Intrinsic = 1Coeffs:
  81. 81. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Finding card real price using reversed coefficients 4a + 2h + c + d + i Atk = 1 Health = -1Charge = 2 Divine = 1 Intrinsic = 1Coeffs:
  82. 82. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Finding card real price using reversed coefficients 4a + 2h + c + d + i 4*1 + 2*-1 + 2 + 1 + 1 = 6 Atk = 1 Health = -1Charge = 2 Divine = 1 Intrinsic = 1Coeffs:
  83. 83. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Finding card real price using reversed coefficients 4a + 2h + c + d + i 4*1 + 2*-1 + 2 + 1 + 1 = 6 Atk = 1 Health = -1Charge = 2 Divine = 1 Intrinsic = 1Coeffs:
  84. 84. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Finding card real price using reversed coefficients 4a + 2h + c + d + i 4*1 + 2*-1 + 2 + 1 + 1 = 6 1a + 1h + d + i Atk = 1 Health = -1Charge = 2 Divine = 1 Intrinsic = 1Coeffs:
  85. 85. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Finding card real price using reversed coefficients 4a + 2h + c + d + i 4*1 + 2*-1 + 2 + 1 + 1 = 6 1a + 1h + d + i 1*1 + 1*-1 + 1 + 1 = 2 Atk = 1 Health = -1Charge = 2 Divine = 1 Intrinsic = 1Coeffs:
  86. 86. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Finding card real price using reversed coefficients 4a + 2h + c + d + i 4*1 + 2*-1 + 2 + 1 + 1 = 6 1a + 1h + d + i 1*1 + 1*-1 + 1 + 1 = 2 Atk = 1 Health = -1Charge = 2 Divine = 1 Intrinsic = 1Coeffs: Under-valued card!
  87. 87. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Redit story Thanks you for the feedback! https://www.elie.net/hs
  88. 88. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Modeling dependance between characteristics Thanks to Niels for the idea
  89. 89. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Charge = Atk * charge coeff Windfury = Atk * windfury coeff Divine = ? (health related?) ! Modeling dependance between characteristics Thanks to Niels for the idea
  90. 90. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Charge = Atk * charge coeff Windfury = Atk * windfury coeff Divine = ? (health related?) ! Modeling dependance between characteristics Thanks to Niels for the idea Model also use a card budget: 2*mana + 1
  91. 91. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs oi Et voila!
  92. 92. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversed budget coefficients Effect cost per point Destroy minion 10.63 Board damage 3.69 Draw card 3.68 Divine Shield 2.74 Freeze 2.04 Silence 1.66 Damage 1.64 Durability 1.22 Stealth 1.21 Attack 1.14 Taunt 1.02 WindFury 0.96 SpellPower 0.93 Health 0.81 Battlecry heal 0.69 Battlecry self hero heal 0.68 Charge 0.65 Intrinsic value 0.32
  93. 93. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversed budget coefficients Effect cost per point Destroy minion 10.63 Board damage 3.69 Draw card 3.68 Divine Shield 2.74 Freeze 2.04 Silence 1.66 Damage 1.64 Durability 1.22 Stealth 1.21 Attack 1.14 Taunt 1.02 WindFury 0.96 SpellPower 0.93 Health 0.81 Battlecry heal 0.69 Battlecry self hero heal 0.68 Charge 0.65 Intrinsic value 0.32 2 coeff point ~ 1 mana point
  94. 94. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversed budget coefficients Effect cost per point Destroy minion 10.63 Board damage 3.69 Draw card 3.68 Divine Shield 2.74 Freeze 2.04 Silence 1.66 Damage 1.64 Durability 1.22 Stealth 1.21 Attack 1.14 Taunt 1.02 WindFury 0.96 SpellPower 0.93 Health 0.81 Battlecry heal 0.69 Battlecry self hero heal 0.68 Charge 0.65 Intrinsic value 0.32 Effect Cost per point Opponent draw card -3.97 Discard cards -2.67 Overload -1.68 Self hero damage -0.54 2 coeff point ~ 1 mana point
  95. 95. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Reversed budget coefficients Effect cost per point Destroy minion 10.63 Board damage 3.69 Draw card 3.68 Divine Shield 2.74 Freeze 2.04 Silence 1.66 Damage 1.64 Durability 1.22 Stealth 1.21 Attack 1.14 Taunt 1.02 WindFury 0.96 SpellPower 0.93 Health 0.81 Battlecry heal 0.69 Battlecry self hero heal 0.68 Charge 0.65 Intrinsic value 0.32 Effect Cost per point Opponent draw card -3.97 Discard cards -2.67 Overload -1.68 Self hero damage -0.54 2 coeff point ~ 1 mana point
  96. 96. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Costestimatedbythealgorithm(inmana) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Cost assigned by Blizzard (in mana) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
  97. 97. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Costestimatedbythealgorithm(inmana) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Cost assigned by Blizzard (in mana) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 undervalued cards
  98. 98. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Costestimatedbythealgorithm(inmana) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Cost assigned by Blizzard (in mana) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 undervalued cards overpriced cards
  99. 99. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Model found a couple of clearly undervalued cards :) Costestimatedbythealgorithm(inmana) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Cost assigned by Blizzard (in mana) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 undervalued cards overpriced cards
  100. 100. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Most under-valued cards (~130 cards) Full data https://www.elie.net/tools/hearthstone/cards_value
  101. 101. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Taking it to the next level
  102. 102. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs • 100 000 games from May to June • Thanks to … for it :) • Need a longer term solution Game replays
  103. 103. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Pricing cards with unique effects
  104. 104. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
  105. 105. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
  106. 106. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Cards in hand
  107. 107. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Health Real Value 1 1.3 2 1.9 3 2.5 4 3 5 3.6 6 4.1 7 4.7 8 5.3 9 5.9 Cards in hand
  108. 108. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.6 4.2 4.7 5.3 5.9 Overpriced Fair Undervalued NumofTwilightDrakesmade 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Drake Health 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Average real value 3.7
  109. 109. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Twilight drake price is fair 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.6 4.2 4.7 5.3 5.9 Overpriced Fair Undervalued NumofTwilightDrakesmade 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Drake Health 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Average real value 3.7
  110. 110. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
  111. 111. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
  112. 112. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Cards played this turn
  113. 113. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Edwin size Real value 2/2 1.09 4/4 3.04 6/6 4.98 8/8 6.92 10/10 8.87 12/12 10.51 14/14 12.75 16/16 14.70 18/18 16.64 20/20 18.58 22/22 20.53 Cards played this turn
  114. 114. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 1.1 3.0 Over-priced Fair Undervalued 5.0 6.9 8.9 10.8 12.8 14.7 16.6 18.6 20.5 22.5 24.4 26.4 NumofVanCleefmade 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 VanCleef size (atk/hp) 2/2 4/4 6/6 8/8 10/10 12/12 14/14 16/16 18/18 20/20 22/22 24/24 26/26 28/28
  115. 115. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 1.1 3.0 Over-priced Fair Undervalued 5.0 6.9 8.9 10.8 12.8 14.7 16.6 18.6 20.5 22.5 24.4 26.4 NumofVanCleefmade 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 VanCleef size (atk/hp) 2/2 4/4 6/6 8/8 10/10 12/12 14/14 16/16 18/18 20/20 22/22 24/24 26/26 28/28 Average real value 8.1
  116. 116. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs VanCleef is undervalued, a fair price is probably between 5 and 7 mana 1.1 3.0 Over-priced Fair Undervalued 5.0 6.9 8.9 10.8 12.8 14.7 16.6 18.6 20.5 22.5 24.4 26.4 NumofVanCleefmade 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 VanCleef size (atk/hp) 2/2 4/4 6/6 8/8 10/10 12/12 14/14 16/16 18/18 20/20 22/22 24/24 26/26 28/28 Average real value 8.1
  117. 117. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
  118. 118. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs
  119. 119. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Num Minions
  120. 120. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Num Minions Damage Value 4 6.5 8 13.9 12 21.3 16 28.6 20 36.0 24 43.4 28 50.7 Board damage coeff
  121. 121. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Num Minions
  122. 122. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Num Minions Normal damage coeff Damage Real Value 4 2.43835 8 5.71835 12 8.99835 16 12.27835 20 15.55835 24 18.83835 28 22.11835
  123. 123. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Flamestrike price is fair Don’t split board damage and single damage coeff 2.4 5.7 9.0 12.3 15.6 18.8 22.1 Over-priced Undervalued NumofFlamestikecasted 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Potential damage 4 8 12 16 20 24 28
  124. 124. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Predicting cards Predicting opponent deck
  125. 125. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 
 Celine
  126. 126. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 
 Celine Our tool :)
  127. 127. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs My deck with card tracking Game metrics Opponent cards played so far Opponent next cards prediction Real time dashboard
  128. 128. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Game metrics Me Opponent
  129. 129. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs My deck T = Total P = Played D = Dead
  130. 130. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs My opponent T = Total P = Played D = Dead
  131. 131. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Predictions
  132. 132. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Game data from
  133. 133. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Sniff packets Game data from
  134. 134. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Sniff packets OCRGame data from
  135. 135. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Sniff packets OCR Debug log Game data from
  136. 136. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Sniff packets OCR Debug log Game data from Real logs from Blizzard like in WoW ?
  137. 137. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Demo video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--byrlBQLCY
  138. 138. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Demo video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--byrlBQLCY
  139. 139. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Turn by Turn History
  140. 140. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Available on Github LightWind/hearthstone-dashboard
  141. 141. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Naxx new cards made the meta to unstable to be predicted accurately for now
  142. 142. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Anatomy of our prediction system Model card affinities
  143. 143. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Anatomy of our prediction system Model card affinities Evaluate affinities
  144. 144. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Anatomy of our prediction system Model card affinities Learn from replays Evaluate affinities
  145. 145. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Anatomy of our prediction system Model card affinities Learn from replays Evaluate affinities Profit :)
  146. 146. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Modeling cards affinities
  147. 147. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Cards bigrams
  148. 148. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Cards bigrams
  149. 149. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Cards bigrams
  150. 150. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Cards un-ordered bigrams
  151. 151. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Evaluate cards affinities
  152. 152. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Played
  153. 153. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Played
  154. 154. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Played Bi-grams
  155. 155. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Played 500 Bi-grams
  156. 156. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Played 500 350 Bi-grams
  157. 157. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Played 500 400 350 Bi-grams
  158. 158. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Played 400 500 400 350 Bi-grams
  159. 159. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Played 400 500 400 350 Bi-grams Ranked Predictions
  160. 160. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Played 400 500 400 350 Bi-grams 750 Ranked Predictions
  161. 161. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Played 400 500 400 350 Bi-grams 500 750 Ranked Predictions
  162. 162. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Played 400 500 400 350 Bi-grams 500 750 400 Ranked Predictions
  163. 163. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Training: 45000 replays Testing : 5000 replays 1 model per class Training and evaluation
  164. 164. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Suspense is killing me
  165. 165. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs 97% success rate for best prediction by turn 3
  166. 166. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Best prediction Average 10th prediction Probabilitypredictionswillbeplayed 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Turn 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
  167. 167. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Best prediction Average 10th prediction Probabilitypredictionswillbeplayed 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Turn 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
  168. 168. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Predicting game outcome How to optimize deck for mana-throughput Hero powers comparison Comparing decks typesWhat’s next?
  169. 169. Celine & Elie Bursztein I am a legend - Defcon 2014 https://www.elie.net/hs Thank you! https://www.elie.net/hs & @elie/@cealtea on Twitter http://swiatgry.pl/tapety/pc/5488,hearthstone_heroes_of_warcraft
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