4G readiness index, fitce workshop 2010

FITCE 2010 4G readiness index 2008 Elias Aravantinos and M. Hosein Fallah, PhD Howe School of Technology Management Stevens Institute of Technology The Forum for European ICT Professionals (Fitce), July 2010, Chania, Crete

Agenda  Introduction  4G description  Current trends and issues  Motivation and model  4G-readiness  Model description  Results and validation  Conclusions and future work 7/12/2010 EA & MHF 2

Introduction  About this study, and ExelixisNet  Aims to create a general technology management model assessing new technology path among different markets  Focuses on explaining 4G readiness, using 3.5G as a starting point  ExelixisNet was founded in NY, in 2007  Telecom and new media consulting agency 7/12/2010 EA & MHF 3

4G definition  There is no formal definition for 4G. It is a term used to describe the next step in wireless communications.  The defined objectives for 4G include:  Fully integrated IP solution  “Anytime, Anywhere”  Seamless connectivity- wireless and wireline  Global access and interconnection  interoperability  Data rates of at least 100Mbps  Spectrally efficient system 7/12/2010 EA & MHF 4

4G evolution 7/12/2010 EA & MHF 5

Investors and vendors  4G Key Players  2011 will be the year when LTE goes live Verizon in the United States and DoCoMo in Japan will begin wide-scale roll-outs by the end of 2010  T-Mobile and AT&T drive 4G via HSPA+ path  TeliaSonera has nationwide 4G licenses in Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark. During 2010, the 4G network roll out continues in Sweden's 25 largest cities and vacation areas and Norway's four largest cities.  800 MHz band, Vodafone Germany has indicated it will launch LTE services targeted at rural areas within the next 12 months.  Net4Mobility in Sweden will use Huawei’s LTE base stations  Spring 2010, Australia turns up 4G with Huawei 7/12/2010 EA & MHF 6

4G Base Station Teliasonera 4G LTE: » Huawei and Nokia-Siemens » Ericsson: Norway and Sweden 7/12/2010 EA & MHF 7

Example of investment vs. speed GERMAN MARKET  Vodafone paid €1.42 billion for a total of 12 spectrum blocks,  Telefonica O2 paid €1.38 billion for 11 blocks,  Deutsche Telekom spent €1.3 billion for 10 blocks  E-Plus paid €283.6 million for 8 blocks. Speeds: 5 Mbps in rural locations, and up to 70 Mbps in cities 7/12/2010 EA & MHF 8

Current Issues and research questions  Issues:  Several forecasts for the evolution of the 4G on a different time window  The 3G in most cases has not paid off  WiMAX versus LTE debate seems to calm off  Different strategies and investments  Hard to evaluate 4G markets yet, slow unfold  Research Questions:  Which countries are closer to 4G adoption?  Since the markets are still shaping up, how can we forecast market potentials from the operators perspective?  The 4G adoption is an outcome of disruptive innovations rather than a natural path of technology evolution 7/12/2010 EA & MHF 9

Approach to achieve 4G readiness  Motivation/Ability Framework:  Seeing What's Next: Using the Theories of Innovation to Predict Industry Change Clayton M. Christensen, Scott D. Anthony, Erik A. Roth HBS Press 2004  E-readiness:  What is the stage of readiness globally  “E-readiness rankings of 2008”, “The Economist Intelligence Unit 2008” report  Network readiness  NRI report of 2008, World Economic Forum 7/12/2010 EA & MHF 10

Motivation/Ability Framework High Looking for a Target The Hotbed Accessing resources Teeming for innovation Motivation (spectrum) or reaching potential consumers The Dilemma Looking for the Money No readily available Firms struggle to find ways to avenues to create profitable monetize an opportunity Low businesses Low High Ability Motivation: the 4G including the digital convergence is the pot of gold and the new opportunity waiting for the winners, the first movers Ability: obtain the resources needed to develop 4G and craft them into business models for new products and services 7/12/2010 EA & MHF 11

Motivation/Ability Framework ( cont.)  Important non-market factors for 4G based on the framework:  Industry standards  Cultural norms  State of technological development  Government regulation  Country’s intellectual property infrastructure 7/12/2010 EA & MHF 12

E-readiness  E-readiness is a measure of the quality of a country’s information and communications technology (ICT) infrastructure and the ability of its consumers, businesses and governments to use ICT to their benefit.  The measure of a country’s ability to leverage digital channels for communication, commerce and government in order to further economic and social development  Similar definition about the Network Readiness Index 7/12/2010 EA & MHF 13

Advancing the E-readiness into 4G study  Taking as input countries with the most efficient digital users, assuming these countries are highly innovative  Examining E-readiness criteria from a mobile wireless perspective  Assume the 4G evolution as a digital subcategory developing similar categories and criteria  Apply the model to the mobile wireless and forecast the evolution based on the present  Strategic results from different countries  Include the non-market factors 7/12/2010 EA & MHF 14

Our study  “4G-Readiness” is a phrase we have coined as analogous to e- readiness  We will focus on highly ranked countries  The “state of play” of a country’s mobile wireless status and the ability of its consumers, businesses and governments to use in the future the mobile wireless to their benefit 7/12/2010 EA & MHF 15

Weighting categories Category Connectivity Business Social and Legal Consumer Governmen Weight and environm cultural environment and t policy and technology ent environme business vision infrastructur nt trend e Criteria 1. mobile Overall Level of spectrum laws 1. 1. Telecom phone political education efficiency, Consumer investing penetration environme and literacy; Subscribers spending on per GDP 2. current nt; level of served per communicat industry macroeco Internet MHz of ions 2. Total ICT standards nomic literacy; Spectrum services; national environme degree of 2. spending nt; market entrepreneur availability rate opportunit ship; of mobile ies; policy technical wireless toward skills of services for private workforce; citizens and enterprise; degree of businesses foreign innovation. investmen t policy; foreign trade and exchange regimes; tax regime; financing; the labour market. Percentage 20% 20% 15% 10% 20% 15% 7/12/2010 EA & MHF 16

Strategic countries for 4G adoption  Select the top 20 from the e-readiness list based on the highest ranking score The list of the 20 countries consist of: USA, Hong Kong, Sweden, Australia, Denmark, Netherlands, UK, Germany, Japan, Switzerland, Austria, Finland, South Korea, New Zealand, Bermuda, Taiwan, Belgium, Canada, Norway, Singapore  China will be added due to the China Mobile 4G activity  Other strategic countries: India, Russia, Brazil due to the facts:  Almost represent half of the world’s population  Showing record in wireless adoption the last few years 7/12/2010 EA & MHF 17

4G readiness for 20 countries 7/12/2010 EA & MHF 18

Input – Output / Results for 2008 Network readiness E-readiness Greece #64 Greece #28 Spain #32 Italy #24, Spain #25 Italy #33 7/12/2010 EA & MHF 19

Expected results  Countries with higher mobile wireless penetration level to score higher than the e-readiness table The question is are there anomalies? Needs to be substantiated by further study!  Countries that have more 4G operators and trials to be placed higher in the list  The higher the country in the list the more investments and trials should attract in the future and closer to 4G adoption  We will use the current ranking, then suggest how the ranking changes over time and what question we can help answer 7/12/2010 EA & MHF 20

Conclusions  This paper defines the 4G criteria and 4G Technology Evolution based on current state of knowledge.  Our continued research and the expected results will shed light into the current operators strategies and market structuring at a national level  Will reveal the weak countries that might be strong in the digital part but weak in the mobile wireless area and the reasons  Identify strong countries that will shape the 4G markets faster and accumulate more capital investments  LTE capable handsets and chipsets  4G Study sampling regions 7/12/2010 EA & MHF 21

Thank You – Questions? Elias Aravantinos ICT Consultant, ExelixisNet www.exelixisnet.com earavantinos@exelixisnet.com Twitter: eliasara, exelixisnet 7/12/2010 EA & MHF 22

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4G readiness index, fitce workshop 2010

by Elias Aravantinos on Jul 12, 2010

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4G readiness index, fitce workshop 2010 — Presentation Transcript