Keith Teare (TechCrunch) «The WWW is dead. Long Live Mobile»

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Keith Teare (TechCrunch) «The WWW is dead. Long Live Mobile»

  1. 1. is deadLong livemobile1
  2. 2. MOBILE DEFINESOUR ERA2
  3. 3. The PC is dead!3
  4. 4. 4
  5. 5. web = loser | apps = winnerThe web is dead!5
  6. 6. EVOLUTIONREVOLUTIONREVOLUTION6
  7. 7. 7
  8. 8. SOFTWAREHARDWARE8
  9. 9. DYING BRANDS9
  10. 10. WINNING BRANDS10
  11. 11. 11
  12. 12. AND MORETO COME12
  13. 13. SOFTWARE13
  14. 14. 14
  15. 15. 15
  16. 16. WE ARE SOCIAL - WITHOUTSOCIAL NETWORKS16
  17. 17. 17
  18. 18. 4.2 billionTwitterMobile is social, distributed and hugefocusMOBILE MESSAGING WILL EAT “SOCIAL”ANDMEDIA SHARING18
  19. 19. WHICH SHOULD MEAN19
  20. 20. 20
  21. 21. UN-NATURALACTSADVERTISING21
  22. 22. Web Adsstill growing22
  23. 23. 23
  24. 24. 24
  25. 25. 25
  26. 26. Bad News =eCPMs 5x Lower on Mobile than Desktop$0.49$0.51$0.55$0.63$0.68$0.68$0.68$0.89$1.17$1.24$0.75$3.50$- $1 $2 $3 $4NavigationGamesReferenceMedicalEntertainmentHealth & FitnessUtilitiesLifestyleEducationWeatherMobile Internet**Desktop Internet*Effective CPM, Desktop Internet* vs. Mobile Internet**Note: * Desktop Internet is a weighted average CPM calculation based on comScore Display ad share data and Vivaki CPM by category data asof Q3:11. **Mobile Internet is a simple average eCPM calculation based on Mobclix Exchange USA data as of 3/12.Mobile eCPM by Category1926
  27. 27. 27
  28. 28. 28
  29. 29. 29
  30. 30. WHAT DOES IT MEAN?Is bad for30
  31. 31. OPPORTUNITIES31
  32. 32. 32
  33. 33. 33
  34. 34. 80,000 users in 140 countries in 21 days.34
  35. 35. 35
  36. 36. Despite Tremendous Ramp So Far,Smartphone User Adoption Has Huge Upside01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000Smartphone Mobile PhoneGlobalSubscriptions(MM)Global Smartphone vs. Mobile Phone Subscriptions, Q4:11Source: Mobile phone subscriptions per Informa (as of Q4:11), Smartphone subscriptions estimate based on Morgan Stanley Research’sestimated smartphone user as % of total mobile user at the end of 2011 (16%).Note: While there are 1B global 3G subscribers as of Q4:11, not all of them were smartphone users. One user may have multiple mobilesubscriptions, therefore actual user #s may be lower than subscriber #s.953MMSmartphoneSubscriptions6.1B Mobile PhoneSubscriptions111.1 BSmartphones willoutperform the overallmarket for mobile phones,growing at a CAGR of23% between 2011 and2017 to reach 1.7 billionunitsDec 201236
  37. 37. SO WHAT ARETHEOPPORTUNITIES• Mobile Messaging eats media sharing and social networking• Payments• Medical Sensors and Data• Cloud for Mobile• Time and Space - Mobile meetsThings• Entertainment - the end of TV; the end of games consoles• Advertising - not the web37
  38. 38. Consequences ForDevelopers• mobile is going to kill desktop and laptop basedsoftware, although it will take some time it hasalready started.• Mobile is much bigger than desktop and withlots of growth potential• Its an app world, not a web world• Front end developers need Objective C; Javaand HTML5/CSS3/Javascript.• Back end need to go beyond SQL to Hadoopand other NOSQL solutions.• Selling developer service to western companiesis not a way to get rich. Build Apps and back endsolutions (services)• Cloud is changing too. Message Bus andStorage, not apps consumed in browsers.• On mobile you are rewarded for thinkingglobal.Your home market is NOT your market.The world is.• You can get big fast• Russian developers are not at a disadvantage ifthey take account of these trends early andaggressively38
  39. 39. Consequences ForBusinesses• IT needs to embrace BYOD(Bring your own Device).• Desktop communications beginsto phase out.• Secure Apps able to accessCorporate Data are needed.• Secure Cloud Storage is needed.• De-centralized model will growas data moves to the device.• API’s remain key for B2Brelationships.• Desktop is not the key focusany more.39
  40. 40. CreditsBusiness Insider - http://www.businessinsider.com/the-future-of-mobile-deck-2012-3?op=1Kleiner Perkins & Mary Meeker - http://www.kpcb.com/insights/2012-internet-trendsFlurry - http://blog.flurry.com/Get My Slideshttp://slides.just.me40
  41. 41. http://just.me/downloadtheapp41
  42. 42. спасибоkeith@teare.comFacebook: kteareTwitter: @ktearejust.me: *kteare42

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