Agile estimation and planning Elad Sofer  - Agile coach. blog -  http:// blog.thescrumster.com   LinkedIn -  http://www.li...
 
Reduce risk Reduce uncertainty  Better decision making Establishing trust  campaigns (marketing)
How to estimate this task ?
Persistence of time
How long will it take to… <ul><li>Read the bible </li></ul><ul><li>Drive to Paris ? </li></ul><ul><li>Solve a math equatio...
34.4
Estimate tasks in relative size  <ul><li>We are not good in measuring absolute values. </li></ul><ul><li>We are good in co...
Story points <ul><li>Name is derived from user stories. </li></ul><ul><li>They reflect the “bigness” of a user story. </li...
Estimation techniques <ul><li>Expert opinion </li></ul><ul><li>Analogy </li></ul><ul><li>Educated guess </li></ul><ul><li>...
Planning poker <ul><li>Each person gets a deck of cards. </li></ul><ul><li>The item to be estimated is read to all. </li><...
Why planning poker works ? <ul><li>Those who do the work estimate it. </li></ul><ul><li>Emphasizes relative estimation </l...
Specification length <ul><li>One page spec </li></ul><ul><li>Group A </li></ul><ul><li>7 Pages spec </li></ul><ul><li>Grou...
Irrelevant information <ul><li>Group A </li></ul><ul><li>added irrelevant details: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>End user desktop ...
Extra requirements <ul><li>Requirements 1-4 </li></ul><ul><li>Group A </li></ul><ul><li>Requirements 1-5 </li></ul><ul><li...
Given anchor <ul><li>Group A </li></ul><ul><li>Customer thinks 500  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>customer has no technical knowle...
Why planning poker works ? <ul><li>Those who do the work estimate it. </li></ul><ul><li>Emphasizes relative estimation </l...
 
Much Work Remains to be Done before we can announce Our Total Failure to Make any progress
Why traditional planning fails <ul><li>Plan is not adaptive. </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on activities – Not on features </li>...
What makes planning agile ? <ul><li>Planning Is not considered as a phase in the project </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on busine...
“ It’s better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.” [John Maynard Keynes [
Continuous planning Daily Iteration Release Product Portfolio Strategy
First, We need a backlog As a user I want to perform stock operations. As a manager I want a report of customer with overd...
Add value 30 As a user I want to perform stock operations. 80 As a manager I want a report of customer with overdraft.  60...
Estimate & asses risk HIGH BIG 30 As a user I want to perform stock operations. Low 13 80 As a manager I want a report of ...
Prioritization guidelines
Now it is prioritized – We are ready Low 8 100 As a user I want to see my balance Low 5 10 As a user I want to log in secu...
Sprinting… <ul><li>Before the sprint: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The team committed to the following: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><u...
Tracking progress (day 1) To Do In work Done
Tracking progress (day 3) To Do In work Done
Tracking progress (day 6) To Do In work Done
Tracking progress (End) To Do In work Done
When the Sprint has finished: <ul><li>We now know the  current  velocity. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Only DONE items count. </l...
Velocity <ul><li>How many points can the team(s) complete in one iteration. </li></ul><ul><li>Easy to measure. </li></ul><...
How to calculate time ? D V T
Burn down charts <ul><li>Increase visibility </li></ul><ul><li>Easy to understand. </li></ul><ul><li>Updated automatically...
So what will it be ? vs + +
 
For more information: <ul><li>Read this book  </li></ul>And visit my blog
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Agile estimation and planning

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Presentation given at XMPie about the topic. Done as a part of the ILTechTalks initiative.

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Agile estimation and planning

  1. 1. Agile estimation and planning Elad Sofer - Agile coach. blog - http:// blog.thescrumster.com LinkedIn - http://www.linkedin.com/in/eladsofer
  2. 3. Reduce risk Reduce uncertainty Better decision making Establishing trust campaigns (marketing)
  3. 4. How to estimate this task ?
  4. 5. Persistence of time
  5. 6. How long will it take to… <ul><li>Read the bible </li></ul><ul><li>Drive to Paris ? </li></ul><ul><li>Solve a math equation ? </li></ul><ul><li>Add support for LDAP ? </li></ul>
  6. 7. 34.4
  7. 8. Estimate tasks in relative size <ul><li>We are not good in measuring absolute values. </li></ul><ul><li>We are good in comparing things. </li></ul><ul><li>We have the basic math skills (or a calculator). </li></ul><ul><li>High accuracy has a high toll. </li></ul><ul><li>Estimates become commitments </li></ul><ul><li>Time is not persistent. </li></ul>
  8. 9. Story points <ul><li>Name is derived from user stories. </li></ul><ul><li>They reflect the “bigness” of a user story. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How hard it is ? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How risky it is ? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How much of it there is ? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Relative values matters. </li></ul><ul><li>Unitless. </li></ul><ul><li>Point values “include uncertainty”. </li></ul><ul><li>Easy and quick </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A little effort helps a lot </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A lot of effort helps a little more </li></ul></ul>
  9. 10. Estimation techniques <ul><li>Expert opinion </li></ul><ul><li>Analogy </li></ul><ul><li>Educated guess </li></ul><ul><li>Disaggregating </li></ul><ul><li>Planning poker </li></ul>
  10. 11. Planning poker <ul><li>Each person gets a deck of cards. </li></ul><ul><li>The item to be estimated is read to all. </li></ul><ul><li>Attendants ask clarifications for the item. </li></ul><ul><li>Each person selects a card and puts it on the table facing down. </li></ul><ul><li>When everyone is done, cards are exposed. </li></ul><ul><li>If the estimations do not match a short discussion is done. -> Goto 4. </li></ul><ul><li>Handle next item. </li></ul>
  11. 12. Why planning poker works ? <ul><li>Those who do the work estimate it. </li></ul><ul><li>Emphasizes relative estimation </li></ul><ul><li>Estimates are within one order of magnitude. </li></ul><ul><li>Reduces anchoring - Everyone's opinion is heard. </li></ul>
  12. 13. Specification length <ul><li>One page spec </li></ul><ul><li>Group A </li></ul><ul><li>7 Pages spec </li></ul><ul><li>Group B </li></ul>173 hours 117 hours
  13. 14. Irrelevant information <ul><li>Group A </li></ul><ul><li>added irrelevant details: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>End user desktop apps </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Usernames & passwords </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Group B </li></ul>39 hours 20 hours
  14. 15. Extra requirements <ul><li>Requirements 1-4 </li></ul><ul><li>Group A </li></ul><ul><li>Requirements 1-5 </li></ul><ul><li>Group B </li></ul>4 hours 4 hours <ul><li>Requirements 1-5 but told to estimate 1-4 only </li></ul><ul><li>Group C </li></ul>8 hours
  15. 16. Given anchor <ul><li>Group A </li></ul><ul><li>Customer thinks 500 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>customer has no technical knowledge </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Don’t let the customer influence you </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Group B </li></ul>555 hours 456 hours <ul><li>Same as B customer thinks 50 </li></ul><ul><li>Group C </li></ul>99 hours
  16. 17. Why planning poker works ? <ul><li>Those who do the work estimate it. </li></ul><ul><li>Emphasizes relative estimation </li></ul><ul><li>Estimates are within one order of magnitude. </li></ul><ul><li>Reduces anchoring - Everyone's opinion is heard. </li></ul><ul><li>Modeled for open discussion – forces thinking. </li></ul><ul><li>It’s quick & fun ! </li></ul>
  17. 19. Much Work Remains to be Done before we can announce Our Total Failure to Make any progress
  18. 20. Why traditional planning fails <ul><li>Plan is not adaptive. </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on activities – Not on features </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Never finish early. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lateness is passed down. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dependencies. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Plan is not priority driven. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Higher risk. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lower ROI. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Belief that customers will not change </li></ul><ul><li>Estimates become commitments. </li></ul>
  19. 21. What makes planning agile ? <ul><li>Planning Is not considered as a phase in the project </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on business priorities </li></ul><ul><li>Deliver something each iteration. </li></ul><ul><li>Changes are expected, embrace change. </li></ul><ul><li>Plans are easily correctable. </li></ul><ul><li>Plan by feature not by activity. </li></ul><ul><li>Clear definition of progress </li></ul><ul><ul><li>50% = 50% of features complete. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>And… </li></ul>
  20. 22. “ It’s better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.” [John Maynard Keynes [
  21. 23. Continuous planning Daily Iteration Release Product Portfolio Strategy
  22. 24. First, We need a backlog As a user I want to perform stock operations. As a manager I want a report of customer with overdraft. As a manager I want balance report As a user I want to see last transactions. As a user I want to see my balance As a user I want to log in securely. … Risk Estimate Value Story
  23. 25. Add value 30 As a user I want to perform stock operations. 80 As a manager I want a report of customer with overdraft. 60 As a manager I want balance report 70 As a user I want to see last transactions. 100 As a user I want to see my balance 10 As a user I want to log in securely. … Risk Estimate Value Story
  24. 26. Estimate & asses risk HIGH BIG 30 As a user I want to perform stock operations. Low 13 80 As a manager I want a report of customer with overdraft. Medium BIG 60 As a manager I want balance report Medium 20 70 As a user I want to see last transactions. Low 8 100 As a user I want to see my balance Low 5 10 As a user I want to log in securely. … Risk Estimate Value Story
  25. 27. Prioritization guidelines
  26. 28. Now it is prioritized – We are ready Low 8 100 As a user I want to see my balance Low 5 10 As a user I want to log in securely. Medium BIG 60 As a manager I want balance report Low 13 80 As a manager I want a report of customer with overdraft. HIGH BIG 30 As a user I want to perform stock operations. Medium 20 70 As a user I want to see last transactions. … Risk Estimate Value Story
  27. 29. Sprinting… <ul><li>Before the sprint: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The team committed to the following: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>As a user I want to see my balance </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>As a user I want to see last transactions. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Creates the sprint backlog: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>They break it down into tasks. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>They estimate the time for each task. </li></ul></ul></ul>
  28. 30. Tracking progress (day 1) To Do In work Done
  29. 31. Tracking progress (day 3) To Do In work Done
  30. 32. Tracking progress (day 6) To Do In work Done
  31. 33. Tracking progress (End) To Do In work Done
  32. 34. When the Sprint has finished: <ul><li>We now know the current velocity. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Only DONE items count. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>We can now start and “realistically” estimate the expected progress. </li></ul>
  33. 35. Velocity <ul><li>How many points can the team(s) complete in one iteration. </li></ul><ul><li>Easy to measure. </li></ul><ul><li>Fixes estimation errors. </li></ul><ul><li>Easily reflects the project status. </li></ul><ul><li>Primary parameter in planning. </li></ul>
  34. 36. How to calculate time ? D V T
  35. 37. Burn down charts <ul><li>Increase visibility </li></ul><ul><li>Easy to understand. </li></ul><ul><li>Updated automatically & immediately. </li></ul><ul><li>Usually used on release & sprint level. </li></ul>
  36. 38. So what will it be ? vs + +
  37. 40. For more information: <ul><li>Read this book  </li></ul>And visit my blog
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