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Agile effort estimation

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Agile effort estimation presentation done at the Israeli "R&D management forum"

Agile effort estimation presentation done at the Israeli "R&D management forum"

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  • hi there, there is a mobile application for effort estimation and basic time planing, have alook at http://effort-estimation-mobile.gatory.com
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Transcript

  • 1.  
  • 2. Effort estimation in agile projects Elad Sofer - Agile coach & Scrum master. Infrastructure scrum master – Nokia Siemens networks blog - http://eladsof.blogli.co.il LinkedIn - http://www.linkedin.com/in/eladsofer
  • 3. How to estimate this task ?
  • 4. What makes estimation agile ?
    • Effort estimation Is not considered as a phase in the project
    • Changes are expected, embrace change.
    • Estimations are easily correctable.
    • Estimate by feature not by activity
    • Estimate by a multi-disciplinary team.
    • And…
  • 5. “ It’s better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.” [John Maynard Keynes [
  • 6. Persistence of time
  • 7. How long will it take to…
    • Read the bible
    • Drive to Paris ?
    • Solve a math equation ?
    • Add support for LDAP ?
  • 8. 34.4
  • 9. Estimate tasks in relative size
    • We are not good in measuring absolute values.
    • We are good in comparing things.
    • We have the basic math skills (or a calculator).
    • High accuracy has a high toll.
    • Estimates become commitments
    • Time is not persistent.
  • 10. Story points
    • Name is derived from user stories.
    • They reflect the “bigness” of a user story.
      • How hard it is ?
      • How risky it is ?
      • How much of it there is ?
    • Relative values matters.
    • Unitless.
    • Point values “include uncertainty”.
    • Easy and quick
      • A little effort helps a lot
      • A lot of effort helps a little more
  • 11. Estimation techniques
    • Expert opinion
    • Analogy
    • Educated guess
    • Disaggregating
    • Planning poker
  • 12. Planning poker
    • Each person gets a deck of cards.
    • The item to be estimated is read to all.
    • Attendants ask clarifications for the item.
    • Each person selects a card and puts it on the table facing down.
    • When everyone is done, cards are exposed.
    • If the estimations do not match a short discussion is done. -> Goto 4.
    • Handle next item.
  • 13. Why planning poker works ?
    • Those who do the work estimate it.
    • Emphasizes relative estimation
    • Estimates are within one order of magnitude.
    • Reduces anchoring - Everyone's opinion is heard.
  • 14. Specification length
    • One page spec
    • Group A
    • 7 Pages spec
    • Group B
    173 hours 117 hours
  • 15. Irrelevant information
    • Group A
    • added irrelevant details:
      • End user desktop apps
      • Usernames & passwords
      • Etc.
    • Group B
    39 hours 20 hours
  • 16. Extra requirements
    • Requirements 1-4
    • Group A
    • Requirements 1-5
    • Group B
    4 hours 4 hours
    • Requirements 1-5 but told to estimate 1-4 only
    • Group C
    8 hours
  • 17. Given anchor
    • Group A
    • Customer thinks 500
      • customer has no technical knowledge
      • Don’t let the customer influence you
    • Group B
    555 hours 456 hours
    • Same as B customer thinks 50
    • Group C
    99 hours
  • 18. Why planning poker works ?
    • Those who do the work estimate it.
    • Emphasizes relative estimation
    • Estimates are within one order of magnitude.
    • Reduces anchoring - Everyone's opinion is heard.
    • Modeled for open discussion – forces thinking.
    • It’s quick & fun !
  • 19. How to calculate time ? S V T
  • 20. Velocity
    • How many points can the team complete in one iteration.
    • Easy to measure.
    • Fixes estimation errors.
    • Easily reflects the project status.
    • Primary parameter in planning.
  • 21. Burn down charts
    • Increase visibility
    • Easy to understand.
    • Updated automatically & immediately.
    • Usually used on release & sprint level.
  • 22. So what will it be ? vs + +