How to get a good deal in Copenhagen – You are needed!! Th!nk2: Climate Change Bella Center Sept 21st 2009 Mads Flarup Christensen Executive Director Greenpeace Nordic

Today… (T minus 76 days) What a good Copenhagen agreement looks like? What a likely agreement looks like! What is Greenpeace doing to get a good agreement What could you do

What a good Copenhagen agreement looks like?

What a likely agreement looks like!

What is Greenpeace doing to get a good agreement

What could you do

Key Greenpeace demands for a “fair, ambitious and binding” Copenhagen agreement Industrialized countries: Mitigation, 40% reduction by 2020 Finance, commit 110 billion euro/year by 2020 Developing countries: Mitigation, 15-30% below BaU by 2020 Forests, (stop deforestation by 2020) The deal in general: Legally binding & no loopholes Global peak in emissions by 2015, close to 0 in 2050

Industrialized countries:

Mitigation, 40% reduction by 2020

Finance, commit 110 billion euro/year by 2020

Developing countries:

Mitigation, 15-30% below BaU by 2020

Forests, (stop deforestation by 2020)

The deal in general:

Legally binding & no loopholes

Global peak in emissions by 2015, close to 0 in 2050

Are we asking a lot? Even if the politicians agree to our demands, we will still see large effects of climate change, and we still risk catastrophic impacts. Tipping points may occur before 2⁰C warming The IPCC recommendations (developed: 25-40% + developing:15-30%) only gives us 50% chance of staying below 2⁰C

Even if the politicians agree to our demands, we will still see large effects of climate change, and we still risk catastrophic impacts.

Tipping points may occur before 2⁰C warming

The IPCC recommendations (developed: 25-40% + developing:15-30%) only gives us 50% chance of staying below 2⁰C

What’s up; the next weeks: - UN/Ban Ki Moons Climate meeting followed by G20 meeting Expected announcements: Denmark – Heads of state to Copenhagen now Small Island states (AOSIS) – 1.5 ⁰C to stay alive China: Announcing domestic reduction target: Perhaps 20%? US: ….welllll Just happened: Brown to Copenhagen Japan boost commitments from 8% to 25%

- UN/Ban Ki Moons Climate meeting followed by G20 meeting

Expected announcements:

Denmark – Heads of state to Copenhagen now

Small Island states (AOSIS) – 1.5 ⁰C to stay alive

China: Announcing domestic reduction target: Perhaps 20%?

US: ….welllll

Just happened:

Brown to Copenhagen

Japan boost commitments from 8% to 25%

Likely outcome: Scenarios for COP 15 Breakthrough – fair, ambitious and binding – NOT LIKELY Foundation – good mechanisms, potential for high ambitions later on. COULD HAPPEN Greenwash - bad deal made to look good in the media, MOST LIKELY Collapse - no deal - COULD HAPPEN

Breakthrough – fair, ambitious and binding – NOT LIKELY

Foundation – good mechanisms, potential for high ambitions later on. COULD HAPPEN

Greenwash - bad deal made to look good in the media, MOST LIKELY

Collapse - no deal - COULD HAPPEN

What is Greenpeace doing about it… - SHOWING THE IMPACTS

What is Greenpeace doing about it… - SHOWING THE IMPACTS

What is Greenpeace doing about it… - MOBILIZING PEOPLE

What is Greenpeace doing about it… - FIGHTING THE BAD SOLUTIONS (Greenpeace Classic)

What is Greenpeace doing about it… - PROMOTING THE RIGHT SOLUTIONS

What is Greenpeace doing about it… - ON THE GROUND IN COPENHAGEN 60+ delegation to the COP, lobbying, commenting Hundreds of activists and volunteers in Copenhagen, demonstrating, direct communications, and photo ops. Demonstration, dec 12th

60+ delegation to the COP, lobbying, commenting

Hundreds of activists and volunteers in Copenhagen, demonstrating, direct communications, and photo ops.

Demonstration, dec 12th

What could you do about it… SHOUT: ”Heads of states to Copenhagen” Focus on what people can do to make politicians do the right thingy: Help mobilise! Tell the impact stories Disclouse a greenwash outcome

SHOUT: ”Heads of states to Copenhagen”

Focus on what people can do to make politicians do the right thingy: Help mobilise!

Tell the impact stories

Disclouse a greenwash outcome

Thank you! Mads Flarup Christensen [email_address] +45 28109022

Mads Flarup Christensen

[email_address]

+45 28109022