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Strategic Materials Conference 2010
Strategic Materials Conference 2010
Strategic Materials Conference 2010
Strategic Materials Conference 2010
Strategic Materials Conference 2010
Strategic Materials Conference 2010
Strategic Materials Conference 2010
Strategic Materials Conference 2010
Strategic Materials Conference 2010
Strategic Materials Conference 2010
Strategic Materials Conference 2010
Strategic Materials Conference 2010
Strategic Materials Conference 2010
Strategic Materials Conference 2010
Strategic Materials Conference 2010
Strategic Materials Conference 2010
Strategic Materials Conference 2010
Strategic Materials Conference 2010
Strategic Materials Conference 2010
Strategic Materials Conference 2010
Strategic Materials Conference 2010
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Strategic Materials Conference 2010

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An overview and outlook of the global semiconductor materials market which includes wafer fab and semiconductor packaging materials. …

An overview and outlook of the global semiconductor materials market which includes wafer fab and semiconductor packaging materials.

This was presented by Dan Tracy (SEMI) at the Strategic Materials Conference in Half Moon Bay, CA

Additional Resources:
http://www.semi.org/fabs
http://www.semi.org/marketinfo

Published in: Technology, Business
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  • 1. Semiconductor Materials Outlook Strategic Materials Conference Dan Tracy SEMI Industry Research & Statistics Group January 14, 2010 1
  • 2. Outline Update on current market and forecast for, Fab Materials Packaging Materials Summary 2
  • 3. Fab Materials 3
  • 4. 4 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 250 Jan-98 May-98 Sep-98 Jan-99 May-99 Sep-99 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Source: SEMI Silicon Manufacturers Group December 2009 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 (Three-month moving average) Jan-06 May-06 Silicon Area Shipment Index Worldwide Wafer Area Shipment Index Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09
  • 5. Photoresist Market Quarterly Sales Global Semiconductor Photoresist Sales $225 $200 $175 $US Millions $150 $125 $100 $75 $50 $25 $0 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 Advanced Positive Negative Source: SEMI CGMG November 2009 5
  • 6. Ancillary Chemicals Market (includes developers, removal chemicals, anti-reflective coatings, and other) Total Ancillary Chemicals Southeast Global Anti-Reflective Coatings Market Asia 8% America China 18% $130 117 5% $120 116 $110 104 100 $100 95 89 Korea $US Millions $90 $80 16% Europe $70 61 9% $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Taiwan 17% Japan 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 27% Source: SEMI CGMG November 2009 *Total may differ slightly due to rounding 2009F = $1,144M 6
  • 7. Worldwide Wafer Fab Materials Forecast Actual Actual Forecast US$ Millions 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1 Silicon Wafers 12,830 11,924 7,229 9,010 10,052 Photomasks2 2,975 2,900 2,491 2,590 2,846 Photoresists 1,144 1,116 926 1,091 1,198 Photoresist Ancillaries3 1,219 1,225 1,144 1,350 1,483 4 Wet Chemicals 904 923 905 941 983 Gases 3,229 3,100 2,515 2,965 3,257 4 Sputter Targets 480 508 356 391 438 5 CMP Slurry & Pads 1,024 1,007 897 1,092 1,218 6 Other/New Materials 1,271 1,439 1,359 1,575 1,757 Total $25,076 $24,143 $17,822 $21,005 $23,232 % Growth -3.7% -26.2% 17.9% 10.6% Totals may not add due to rounding Source: SEMI January 2010 7
  • 8. Wafer Fab Materials Forecast Notes 1. Silicon wafers include merchant sales value only; includes SOI wafers; no reclaim wafers 2. Includes captive market 3. Includes resist removal chemicals, developers, anti-reflective coatings, contrast enhancers, edge bead removers, adhesion promoters, etc. 4. Source is Techcet Group LLC, includes precious metals 5. Estimates for IC applications only 6. Includes low k dielectrics, copper plating solutions, dielectric precursors, organometallic precursors, etc. 7. All forecasts in current dollars 8. Source for all data is SEMI, unless otherwise indicated Source: SEMI January 2010 8
  • 9. Global Silicon Wafer Outlook by Diameter 5,000 300 mm 4,500 Millions of Square Inches 4,000 200 mm 3,500 3,000 150 mm 100 mm 2,500 2,000 125 mm 75 mm 1,500 1,000 500 0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1995 1997 2000 2002 1987 1989 1991 1993 1996 1998 1999 2001 2008 1986 2007 2009F 2011F 1978 1980 1982 2003 2005 2010F 1979 1981 1983 1984 1985 2004 2006 Includes polished and epi wafers. Excludes reclaim, non polished, and SOI. 9 Source: Rose Associates 1978 to 1995; SEMI SMG 1995 to 2008; SEMI Forecast
  • 10. Regional Fab Materials Markets 2009F 2010F % Region Southeast $B $B Change Asia China 8% 5% Europe China 0.84 0.96 14% 11% Taiwan 16% Europe 1.93 2.27 18% Japan 4.97 5.85 18% Korea 2.77 3.27 18% Japan North 27% North America 3.20 3.76 18% America 17% Taiwan 2.78 3.34 20% Korea 16% Southeast Asia 1.34 1.56 16% 2009 = $17.8 Billion Total Regions 17.83 21.01 18% Source: SEMI January 2010 Totals may not add due to rounding 10
  • 11. Packaging Materials 11
  • 12. Leadframes- Shipments return to year ago levels Global Leadframe Shipments 18,000 16,000 14,000 Millions of Units 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Mar-06 May-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 May-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 May-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 May-09 Sep-09 IC Discrete Source: SEMI December 2009 12
  • 13. Gold Bonding Wire: Transition to Smaller Diameters % Share of Gold Wire Market by Diameter 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E >30 micron 25-30 micron <25 micron Source: SEMI and TechSearch International, Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook 13
  • 14. Worldwide Semiconductor Packaging Materials Forecasts Actual Forecast US$ Millions 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Leadframes $3,289 $3,013 $2,586 $2,908 $2,976 Organic Substrates1 6,656 7,586 6,967 7,674 8,255 Ceramic Packages 1,574 1,501 1,290 1,388 1,429 Encapsulation Resins 1,624 1,475 1,284 1,464 1,559 3 Bonding Wire 3,592 3,968 3,838 4,359 4,446 4 Die Attach Materials 612 588 582 650 682 Others5 242 193 179 207 233 $17,589 $18,324 $16,726 $18,650 $19,580 Total 4.2% -8.7% 11.5% 5.0% % Growth Source: SEMI November 2009 14
  • 15. Semiconductor Packaging Materials Forecast Notes 1. Source is TechSearch International. Includes PBGA, PPGA, LGA, and CSP laminate substrates and flex BGA and CSP substrates 2. Assume gold value of $660/trz for 2007, $872/trz for 2008, $920 for 2009-2011 forecast period 3. Includes die attach film (tape) materials 4. Other includes solder balls and wafer level package dielectrics 5. Source for all data is SEMI, unless otherwise indicated 6. All forecasts in current dollars Source: SEMI November 2009 15
  • 16. Packaging Materials Unit Outlook Segment 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F Organic Substrates 7,574 6,573 7,055 7,479 (K square meters) Leadframes 331 300 343 365 (billions of units) Bonding Wire 15.8 15.4 18.0 20.3 (billions of meters) Mold Compound 158.0 137.4 160.7 171.3 (millions of kg) Source: SEMI and TechSearch International, Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook 16
  • 17. Regional Semiconductor Packaging Materials Markets 2009F 2010F % Region China $B $B Change Southeast 14% Asia China 2.42 2.84 17% Europe 28% 3% Europe 0.55 0.59 7% Japan Japan 2.71 2.84 5% 16% Korea 1.95 2.17 11% Americas 0.48 0.52 8% Korea Taiwan 12% Taiwan 3.97 4.51 14% 24% Americas 3% Southeast Asia 4.65 5.18 11% Total Regions 16.73 18.65 11% 2009 = $16.7 Billion Totals may not add due to rounding Source: SEMI November 2009 17
  • 18. China Semiconductor Packaging Market Trends in China: Packaging houses - More than 15 companies are capable of substrate-based packaging technology - Seven bumping fabs with wafer size arranged from 125mm to 300mm - TSV for CIS is under mass production Packaging Materials - China is estimated to represent about 15% of the packaging materials market in 2010 - Substrate drives the growth of packaging material market in the next several years - China headquartered packaging material suppliers have made progress in developing and manufacturing leadframes, bonding wires, mold compounds, solder balls, and plating chemicals Source: SEMI China Semiconductor Packaging Market Overview (new report to be issued) 18
  • 19. Summary 19
  • 20. SEMI® 2009 Materials Forecast By Market Region N. America Japan Taiwan Europe S.Korea China Southeast Asia $50 $45 $42.67 $42.47 $42.81 $40 $39.65 $34.55 US$ Billions $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F Southeast Asia 6.79 6.90 5.99 6.74 7.12 China 3.31 3.57 3.26 3.80 4.16 S.Korea 6.10 5.90 4.71 5.44 5.92 Europe 3.68 3.29 2.47 2.86 3.08 Taiwan 8.34 7.90 6.76 7.85 8.55 Japan 9.19 9.98 7.67 8.69 9.34 N. America 5.25 4.93 3.68 4.27 4.63 Totals may not add due to rounding. 20 Source: SEMI January 2010
  • 21. Summary • Semiconductor Materials Market – 2009 forecasted to decline -19% overall • -26% decline in Fab Material spending • -9% decline in Packaging Material spending – 2010 outlook to be inline with overall semiconductor market growth • +18% increase in Fab Material spending • +11% increase in Packaging Material spending 21

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