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SEMICON Taiwan 2009 - Semiconductor Equipment/Materials/Fab Outlook

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    SEMICON Taiwan 2009 - Semiconductor Equipment/Materials/Fab Outlook - Presentation Transcript

    1. Market Briefing Semiconductor Market Outlook Wednesday, September 30, 2009 08:30 - 12:10 Conference Room 2, TWTC
    2. SEMI Equipment and Materials Market Outlook Clark Tseng Sr. Manager Industry Research & Statistics SEMICON Taiwan 2009 Market Briefing Sept 30, 2009
    3. Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Outlook Clark Tseng Senior Research Manager, SEMI • Clark is a senior research manager at SEMI, a global industry association serving the manufacturing supply chains for semiconductor industry. His major responsibility is to track and evaluate front-end fab investment in Asia Pacific region. His research also spans over flat panel display and PV industries. His expertise includes in-depth analysis of the industry dynamics, as well as the fundamentals of market forecasting, competitive analysis, and strategic planning.- • Prior to SEMI, Clark worked for Qimonda as the manager at Strategy and Business Development division, where he managed market & competitive intelligence function in Asia/Pacific. In this role, he tracked market supply/demand, pricing, competitors’ capacity planning, technology roadmap, and product portfolios. • Clark Tseng received a bachelor business administration and a bachelor of arts in international relations from National Chengchi University in Taiwan.
    4. SEMI: The Global Association SEMI delivers access to: • Information San Jose San Jose Brussels Brussels • Global Markets • People—from governments to customers Austin Washington DC Austin Washington DC SEMI products and services include: • Expositions: SEMICON®, PV, FPD, etc. Moscow Moscow • International Standards Seoul Tokyo Seoul Tokyo • Public policy/EHS Beijing Beijing Shanghai Hsinchu Shanghai Hsinchu • Technical & Business Conferences Hsinchu Hsinchu • Industry Research & Statistics Singapore Singapore • Website: www.semi.org
    5. About SEMI • Global industry association • Over 2000 members • Established in 1970 to serve the semiconductor supply chain • Today serves members in the following industry’s – Semiconductor – Flat Panel Display – Photovoltaic/Tech-Energy Industry Strategy Symposium—ISS – Nanotechnology – MEMS Book-to-Bill
    6. About SEMI Industry Research & Statistics The SEMI Industry Research and Statistics group provides market data and market research reports covering semiconductor capital equipment, photovoltaic equipment, semiconductor materials, packaging materials, and semiconductor fabs. For our major reports, we collect actual data from suppliers around the world following strict professional standards of confidentiality. Our reports provide trends, forecast, and outlook to help the industry make important investment, strategic, and business planning decisions. For additional information regarding our products and our data collection program, please visit us at www.semi.org/marketinfo or contact us at mktstats@semi.org.
    7. Market Research Reports Semiconductor Semiconductor Semiconductor Semiconductor Equipment Materials Fabs Packaging • Equipment Market • Material Market Data • World Fab Forecast • Global Data Subscription Subscription Semiconductor (EMDS) (MMDS) • FabFutures Packaging Materials Outlook (Oct ’09) • China Domestic Fab • Photomask Report* • World Fab Watch Equipment Suppliers • 300 mm Report • Silicon Reclaim • China Equipment Wafer Report* Subsystems, Components, and Parts Vendors Overview • Historical SEMI Book- to-Bill Report Notes: * These reports are included FREE with the purchase of the MMDS report, but also available as separate reports.
    8. Market Research Reports (con’t) Photovoltaic Enabling Products MEMS/MST • Photovoltaic • Solar Cell Capacity, • Mass Flow • Global MEMS Equipment Market Shipment, and Company Controller Markets and Subscription Coming Soon Profile Database and Opportunity*** Report New *** • LED • Chemicals & Manufacturing Materials for • PV Supply Chain Health Technologies *** Photovoltaic Cells ReportNew *** and Modules New *** • Sapphire Market *** • PV Fab Database*** • Photovoltaic Technologies, Equipment, Applications, and Markets (PV TEAM) *** *** Third-party reports Visit www.semi.org/store
    9. Custom Semiconductor Fab Reports Custom reports generated • Fab Transitional Report (fabs to be sold, sold, for sale, may-be-closed, etc) • Historical Fab Report – # of fabs operational/year (1988-2008) – Total spending on fabs per year (1988-2008) – wafer capacity by geometry (1994 – 2008) • Historical Fab Report – Fab Construction spending (1996 – 2007) – Fab Equipping spending (1996 – 2007) • Regional Fab Capacity Report (2000 - 2008)
    10. Topics of Discussion for Today  Overall Semiconductor Industry Outlook  Semiconductor Fab Spending Outlook  Semiconductor Equipment Outlook  Semiconductor Materials Outlook  Summary
    11. Overall Semiconductor Industry Outlook
    12. Semiconductor Cycles $300 100% Global Semiconductor Revenue US $B 256 248 249 Annual Growth % (line graph) $250 228 75% 204 213 222 208 $200 196 50% 166 (bar graph) 144 137 150 141 139 $150 132 126 25% 102 $100 77 0% 55 60 45 49 51 $50 33 -25% $0 -50% 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 F 2010 F 2011 F Semiconductor Revenue Annual Growth Source: SIA/WSTS historical year end reports, SIA June 2009 Forecast
    13. 2009 Semiconductor Revenue Forecasts -23.0% iSuppli (Jul 09) -21.6% WSTS (Jun 09) -21.3% SIA (Jun 09) -17.0% Gartner (Aug 09) -16.0% IC Insights (Jan 09) -15.6% Henderson Ventures (Sep 09) -14.0% Future Horizons (Aug 09) -13.8% Semico Research (May 09) -12.7% VLSI Research (Jun 09) -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% Source: SEMI
    14. 2010 Semiconductor Revenue Forecasts 6.5% SIA (Jun 09) 7.3% WSTS (Jun 09) Henderson Ventures 9.6% (Sep 09) 10.6% Gartner (Jun 09) 13.1% iSuppli (Jul 09) 15.1% VLSI Research (Jun 09) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Source: SEMI
    15. Capital Equipment Cycles $60 115% Global Capital Equipment Revenue US $B 90% Annual Growth % (line graph) $50 48 43 40 65% $40 37 33 (bar graph) 30 40% $30 26 28 28 24 25 22 22 21 15% 20 $20 15 14 -10% 10 $10 8 9 9 9 8 5 -35% $0 -60% 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 F 2009 F 2010 F Capital Equipment Revenue Annual Growth Source: SEMI and SEMI/SEAJ year end historical reports, SEMI Year-End 2008 Forecast
    16. Semiconductor Materials Cycles 60 100% 55 Global Materials Revenue US $B 50 75% Annual Growth % (line graph) 45 43 43 41 40 37 37 50% (bar graph) 35 31 29 30 28 25% 23 24 25 21 22 20 19 20 21 20 15 0% 15 13 9 9 9 10 10 7 8 -25% 5 0 -50% 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009 F 2010 F Materials Revenue Annual Growth Source: Rose Associates historical reports 1987 through 1999, SEMI 1999 through 2010, August 2009
    17. 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 250 Jan-98 May-98 Sep-98 Jan-99 May-99 Sep-99 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Source: SEMI Silicon Manufacturers Group September 2009 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 (Three-month moving average) Sep-05 Silicon Area Shipment Index Jan-06 May-06 Worldwide Wafer Area Shipment Index Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09
    18. Outsource Manufacturers- Monthly Sales Trends through August Combined Monthly Revenues- 3 Mo. Avg. (ASE, SPIL, TSMC, and UMC) 60,000 50,000 40,000 NT$ Millions August 2009 sales 30,000  Six months of consecutive increases 20,000  4.6% below Aug 2008 10,000 - Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 May-03 May-04 May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 Jan-03 Mar-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 Jul-09 Source: Company monthly reports
    19. Semiconductor Fab Capacity & Spending Outlook
    20. Fab Construction- Investments at minimal levels Quarterly Construction Spending by Region in US$ Million $1,800 Taiwan $1,600 SE Asia $1,400 $1,200 Ko rea $1,000 Japan $800 $600 Euro pe & Mideast $400 China $200 Americas $- 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast
    21. Equipment Spending – 70% below 1Q 2008 Quarterly Equipment Spending by Region in US$ Million $10,000 Taiwan $9,000 $8,000 SE Asia $7,000 Korea $6,000 $5,000 Japan $4,000 Europe & $3,000 Mideast $2,000 China $1,000 Americas $- 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast
    22. Total Fab Spending- Increasing off of the 2Q 2009 low Total Spending on Fabs (includes construction, facilities, and equipping) $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 Taiwan US$ Millions SE Asia $6,000 Korea Japan $4,000 Europe & Mideast China $2,000 Americas $- 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast
    23. Installed Capacity by Product Type Installed Capacity by Product Type (in 200mm Equivalents) Millions per Month 18 MEMS/Other 16 MPU 14 12 Memory 10 Logic 8 Foundry 6 Discrete 4 Analog 2 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast (August 2009) Since 1998, Memory share of fab capacity has grown to ~36% from 15%. Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast
    24. Semiconductor Equipment Market Outlook
    25. SEMI North America Book-to-Bill Ratio North American Headquartered Manufacturers Global Capital Equipment Book-to-Bill (based on three month averages) $1,200 $1,000 US$ Millions $800 $600 $400 Bookings Billings $200 $0 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 (f) Aug-09 (p) 1.10 1.00 Book-to-Bill Ratio 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 (f) Aug-09 (p) Source: SEMI September 2009
    26. US$ Billions $0.0 $1.0 $2.0 $3.0 $4.0 $5.0 $6.0 Jan-97 Apr-97 Jul-97 Oct-97 Jan-98 Apr-98 Jul-98 Oct-98 Jan-99 Source: SEMI/SEAJ September 2009 Apr-99 Jul-99 Oct-99 Jan-00 Apr-00 Jul-00 Oct-00 Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Billings Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Bookings Jul-04 Assembly) Equipment Trends Oct-04 Semiconductor Equipment Jan-05 (based on 3-month averages) Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Worldwide Bookings and Billings for Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Worldwide Semiconductor (Fab, Test & Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09
    27. SEMI® 2009 Mid-Year Equipment Consensus Forecast By Segment Wafer Process Assembly & Pack. Test Other $50 $42.77 $40 US$ Billions $29.52 $30 $20.74 $20 $14.14 $10 $0 2007 (A) 2008 (A) 2009 (F) 2010 (F) Other 2.92 2.00 0.99 1.43 Test 5.05 3.45 1.78 2.54 Assembly & Pack. 2.84 2.04 0.96 1.34 Wafer Process 31.95 22.03 10.42 15.43 Totals may not add due to rounding Source: SEMI Mid-Year 2009 Semiconductor Consensus Forecast, July 2009
    28. SEMI® 2009 Mid-Year Equipment Consensus Forecast By Market Region N. America Japan Taiwan Europe S.Korea China ROW $50 $42.77 US$ Billions $40 $29.52 $30 $20.74 $20 $14.14 $10 $0 2007 (A) 2008 (A) 2009 (F) 2010 (F) ROW 3.05 2.61 1.19 1.61 China 2.99 1.89 0.78 1.59 S.Korea 7.35 4.89 1.88 3.59 Europe 2.94 2.45 1.40 1.77 Taiwan 10.65 5.01 2.37 3.56 Japan 9.31 7.04 2.96 4.32 N. America 6.55 5.63 3.56 4.30 Totals may not add due to rounding Source: SEMI Mid-Year 2009 Semiconductor Consensus Forecast, July 2009
    29. Equipment Spending Trends Bar Charts Line Chart 30% $350 25% 24% $300 $247.7 20% 20% 20% $255.6 $250 20% $227.5 $195.6 $208.3 17% 17%17% 17%$213.0 17% $248.6 US$ Billions 16% 16% $200 15% 15% $149.4 14% 14% 13% 13% $137.2 $204.4 13%$166.6 12% $150 $139.0140.7 $ 10% $102.0 10% $144.4 $60.0 $77.0 $125.6 7% $100 $132.0 $55.0 5% $50 0% $0 F F 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Equipment Spending % of Semiconductor Revenue Semiconductor Revenue ($B) WSTS Source: SEMI and SIA July 2009
    30. Semiconductor Equipment Sales Total Semiconductor Equipment Spending $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 US$ Millions $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Americas-EU-Japan Other Asia-Pacific Source: SEMI/SEAJ Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Statistics
    31. Semiconductor Materials Market Outlook
    32. Global Silicon Wafer Diameter Trends 5,000 4,500 300 mm Millions of Square Inches 4,000 200 mm 3,500 3,000 100 mm 150 mm 2,500 2,000 125 mm 75 mm 1,500 1,000 500 0 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Includes polished and epi wafers. Excludes reclaim, non polished, and SOI. Source: Rose Associates 1978 to 1995; SEMI SMG 1995 to 2006; SEMI SMG
    33. Quarterly Silicon Trends- Strong 2Q Recovery across all Regions Polished and Epi Silicon Area Shipments 1,200 Millions of Square Inches 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Americas Europe Japan Asia Pacific 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 4Q 2008 1Q 2009 2Q 2009 Source: SEMI SMG July 2009
    34. Global Silicon Shipments (from the wafer suppliers to the fabs) Worldwide Silicon Wafer Shipments 10,000 9,000 8,000 Millions of Square Inches 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Americas-EU-Japan Other Asia-Pacific Source: SEMI Silicon Manufacturers Group
    35. Regional Fab Materials Markets 2008 2009F % Region Southeast $B $B Change China Asia 5% Europe China 1.17 0.99 -15% 7% 11% Taiwan Europe 2.63 2.27 -14% 15% Japan 6.91 5.90 -15% Korea 3.63 3.14 -13% North Japan America 29% North America 4.36 3.71 -15% 18% Taiwan 3.73 3.14 -16% Korea 15% Southeast Asia 1.65 1.37 -17% 2008 = $24.1 Billion Total Regions 24.08 20.52 -15% Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription August 2009 Totals may not add due to rounding
    36. Regional Semiconductor Packaging Materials Markets 2008 2009F % Region China $B $B Change Southeast 12% Europe China 2.32 2.26 -3% Asia 4% 30% Europe 0.69 0.63 -9% Japan Japan 3.30 2.80 -15% 18% Korea 2.15 1.88 -13% Americas 0.59 0.52 -12% Korea Taiwan 11% Taiwan 4.00 3.66 -9% 22% Americas 3% Southeast Asia 5.48 4.78 -13% Total Regions 18.53 16.53 -11% 2008 = $18.5 Billion Totals may not add due to rounding Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription August 2009
    37. Materials Market Forecast By Segment Fab Packaging $50 $42.65 $42.70 2009 Down $40 $37.25 -15% to -20%? US$ Billions $30.94 $28.81 $30 $20 $10 $0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 F Packaging 11.95 12.77 15.54 17.45 18.58 16.00 Fab 16.86 18.17 21.70 25.20 24.12 20.00 Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: SEMI February 2009
    38. Total Regional Materials Markets 2008 2009F % Southeast Region China $B $B Change Asia 8% 17% China 3.43 3.00 -13% Europe 8% Europe 3.32 2.84 -14% Japan 10.28 8.68 -16% Taiwan 18% Japan Korea 5.73 4.92 -14% 24% Americas 4.96 4.15 -16% Taiwan 7.72 6.48 -16% Americas Korea 12% Southeast Asia 7.22 6.07 -16% 13% Total Regions 42.66 36.14 -15% 2008=$42.7 B Totals may not add due to rounding Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription May 2009
    39. Summary
    40. Summary • Industry Trends – Unit shipments bottomed in January/February with a strong rebound into the third quarter – Investments on fabs are increasing on a quarterly basis – Overall outlook is for growth in semiconductor sales to continue into 2010 • Semiconductor Equipment Market – Earlier this year, bookings fell to levels last reported in the early 1990s. – Bookings have been slowly improving from this bottom – Market forecast • a -50% or so decline in 2009 • +40% to +50% spending growth in 2010 • Semiconductor Materials Market – 2009 forecasted to decline -15% to -20% – 2010 outlook to be inline with overall semiconductor market growth
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