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SEMICON Singapore 2010 - Market Brief

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An overview and outlook of the global semiconductor equipment and materials market. Also, includes a summary of the fab activities. …

An overview and outlook of the global semiconductor equipment and materials market. Also, includes a summary of the fab activities.

This was presented at SEMICON Singapore in June 2010 by Dan Tracy of SEMI U.S..

Additional Resources:
http://www.semi.org/fabs
http://www.semi.org/marketinfo

Published in: Technology

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  • 1. Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Outlook SEMICON Singapore 2010 Dan Tracy SEMI Industry Research & Statistics Group May 19, 2010 1
  • 2. Outline Update on current market and forecast for, Industry Trends Semiconductor Equipment Semiconductor Materials Summary 2
  • 3. 3 NT$ Millions - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Jan-03 Mar-03 May-03 Source: Company reports Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 (ASE, SPIL, TSMC, and UMC) Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Combined Monthly Revenues- 3 Mo. Avg. Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 1Q 2010 Outsource Manufacturers Monthly Sales - Flat vs. 4Q 2009 - 102% above 1Q 2009
  • 4. 2010 Semiconductor and IC Revenue Forecasts 31.0% Future Horizons 30.6% iSuppli 27.2% Henderson Ventures 27.0% IC Insights 24.0% Semico Research 23.0% Databeans 21.9% VLSI Research 19.9% Gartner 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Source: SEMI 4
  • 5. Front End Fabs Spending Spending in Front End Facilities US$ Billion (Construction + Equipping) Growth % 50 100% 88% Taiwan 45 77% 80% 40 SE Asia 64% 60% 35 S. Korea 40% 30 Japan 25 22% 20% 17% 10% Europe & 20 2% Mideast 0% -5% -6% China 15 -22% -20% 10 Americas -33% -42% -40% 5 -46% Growth 0 -60% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, February 2010 5
  • 6. Semiconductor Equipment 6
  • 7. 7 US$ Billions $0.0 $1.0 $2.0 $3.0 $4.0 $5.0 $6.0 Jan-97 Apr-97 Jul-97 Oct-97 Source: SEMI/SEAJ May 2010 Jan-98 Apr-98 Jul-98 Oct-98 Jan-99 Apr-99 Jul-99 Oct-99 Jan-00 Apr-00 Jul-00 Oct-00 Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Billings Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Bookings Assembly) Equipment Trends Semiconductor Equipment Apr-05 (based on 3-month averages) Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Worldwide Bookings and Billings for Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Worldwide Semiconductor (Fab, Test & Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10
  • 8. Equipment Forecast By Market Region N. America Japan Taiwan Europe S.Korea China Southeast Asia $45 $42.84 US$ Billions $40 $35 $30 $29.52 $28.10 $25 $20 $15.92 $15 $10 $5 $0 2007 (A) 2008 (A) 2009 (A) 2010 (F) Southeast Asia 3.05 2.61 1.44 2.60 China 2.99 1.89 0.94 1.90 S.Korea 7.35 4.89 2.60 4.70 Europe 2.94 2.45 0.97 2.40 Taiwan 10.65 5.01 4.35 7.90 Japan 9.31 7.04 2.23 3.90 N. America 6.55 5.63 3.39 4.70 -Totals may not add due to rounding - Includes fab, test, assembly, & other equipment Source: SEMI 8
  • 9. Equipment Forecast by Segment Wafer Process Assembly & Pack. Test Other $45 $42.84 $40 $35 $29.52 $28.10 US$ Billions $30 $25 $20 $15.92 $15 $10 $5 $0 2007 (A) 2008 (A) 2009 (A) 2010 (F) Other 2.92 2.00 1.11 1.90 Test 5.05 3.45 1.55 2.50 Assembly & Pack. 2.84 2.04 1.41 2.30 Wafer Process 31.95 22.03 11.84 21.40 -Totals may not add due to rounding Source: SEMI 9
  • 10. Equipment Spending Trends Bar Charts Line Chart 25% 24% $300 $267.0 $255.6 20% 20% 20% $247.7 $248.6 $250 20% $227.5 17% 17%17% $204.4 17%$213.0 17% 16% $226.3 16% $200 US$ Billions 15% 15% 14% 14% 13% 13% $149.4 13%$166.6 $137.2 $139.0 12% $150 11% $102.0 $144.4 $140.7 10% $125.6 $60.0 $77.0 $132.0 7% $100 $55.0 5% $50 0% $0 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 F 10 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Equipment Spending % of Semiconductor Revenue Semiconductor Revenue ($B) WSTS Source: SEMI and SIA, SEMI Forecast Estimate 10
  • 11. Semiconductor Materials 11
  • 12. Leadframes- Unit shipments have recovered Global Leadframe Shipments 20,000 18,000 16,000 Millions of Units 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 06 07 08 09 10 6 7 8 9 6 7 8 9 6 7 8 9 l-0 l-0 l-0 l-0 r- 0 r- 0 r- 0 r- 0 -0 -0 -0 -0 n- n- n- n- n- ct ct ct ct Ju Ju Ju Ju Ap Ap Ap Ap Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja O O O O IC Discrete Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription 12
  • 13. Worldwide Wafer Fab Materials Forecast Actual Actual Forecast US$ Millions 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1 Silicon Wafers 12,830 11,924 7,125 8,782 9,745 Photomasks2 2,975 2,948 2,732 2,926 2,994 Photoresists 1,144 1,116 920 1,092 1,184 3 Photoresist Ancillaries 1,219 1,225 1,075 1,279 1,389 4 Wet Chemicals 904 923 905 941 983 Gases 3,229 3,100 2,465 2,929 3,177 4 Sputter Targets 480 508 356 391 438 5 CMP Slurry & Pads 1,024 1,007 916 1,105 1,241 6 Other/New Materials 1,271 1,439 1,359 1,575 1,757 Total $25,076 $24,191 $17,854 $21,020 $22,908 % Growth -3.5% -22.1% 17.7% 9.0% Totals may not add due to rounding Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription February 2010 13
  • 14. Wafer Fab Materials Forecast Notes 1. Silicon wafers include merchant sales value only; includes SOI wafers; no reclaim wafers 2. Includes captive market 3. Includes resist removal chemicals, developers, anti-reflective coatings, contrast enhancers, edge bead removers, adhesion promoters, etc. 4. Source is Techcet Group LLC, includes precious metals 5. Estimates for IC applications only 6. Includes low k dielectrics, copper plating solutions, dielectric precursors, organometallic precursors, etc. 7. All forecasts in current dollars 8. Source for all data is SEMI, unless otherwise indicated Source: SEMI February 2010 14
  • 15. Worldwide Semiconductor Packaging Materials Forecasts Actual Forecast US$ Millions 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Leadframes $3,289 $3,013 $2,635 $2,942 $2,997 Organic Substrates1 6,656 7,586 6,967 7,674 8,255 Ceramic Packages 1,574 1,501 1,290 1,388 1,429 Encapsulation Resins 1,624 1,475 1,284 1,464 1,559 3 Bonding Wire 3,592 3,968 3,838 4,359 4,446 4 Die Attach Materials 612 588 582 650 682 Others5 242 193 179 207 233 $17,589 $18,324 $16,775 $18,684 $19,601 Total 4.2% -8.5% 11.4% 4.9% % Growth Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription February 2010 15
  • 16. Semiconductor Packaging Materials Forecast Notes 1. Source is TechSearch International. Includes PBGA, PPGA, LGA, and CSP laminate substrates and flex BGA and CSP substrates 2. Assume gold value of $660/trz for 2007, $872/trz for 2008, $920 for 2009-2011 forecast period 3. Includes die attach film (tape) materials 4. Other includes solder balls and wafer level package dielectrics 5. Source for all data is SEMI, unless otherwise indicated 6. All forecasts in current dollars Source: SEMI February 2010 16
  • 17. Global Silicon Wafer Diameter Trends 5,000 300 mm 4,500 Millions of Square Inches 4,000 200 mm 3,500 3,000 150 mm 2,500 100 mm 2,000 125 mm 75 mm 1,500 1,000 500 0 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F Includes polished and epi wafers. Excludes reclaim, non polished, and SOI. 17 Source: Rose Associates 1978 to 1995; SEMI SMG 1995 to 2009; SEMI
  • 18. Gold Bonding Wire- Clear Transition to Smaller Diameter % Share of Gold Wire Market by Diameter 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E >30 micron 25-30 micron <25 micron Source: SEMI and Techsearch International, Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook 18
  • 19. Wire Survey- Current Status To what degree is your company currently using copper wire? 30 25 Fabless Number of Companies IDM 20 13 5 15 10 14 14 5 0 Not using Some products Majority of products 19
  • 20. Wire Survey- Potential use over the next three years Plans for Copper over the Next Three Years 35 Fabless 30 IDM 9 Number of Companies 25 20 15 24 10 5 4 5 3 0 1 Are not considering Are considering for some new Are considering for the majority products of new products 20
  • 21. Wire Survey- Issues and Concerns Remain Main Issues/Concerns that would Prevent the Use of Copper Wire 30 Fabless 25 IDM 11 # of Responses 20 8 15 9 5 10 15 1 12 5 4 9 9 7 3 2 0 Process In-Service Incremental Unproven Customer Other None Yield Reliability Process Historical Specification Costs Performance 21
  • 22. Global Bonding Wire Market Global Bonding Wire Markets 2007 Actual 2008 Actual 2009 Estimate Bonding Wire Revenues Millions Revenues Millions Revenues Millions Market $M of Meters $M of $M of Meters Meters Gold Wire 3,552 15,287 3,921 14,422 3,779 13,680 Aluminum Wire 32.0 980 29.5 898 26.0 800 Copper Wire 8.0 272 17.4 476 33.2 885 Total Bonding $3,592.0 16,539 $3,967.9 15,796 $3,838.2 15,365 Wire Market Source: SEMI and TechSearch International, Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook 22
  • 23. Materials Forecast By Segment Fab Packaging $50 $42.67 $42.47 $42.51 $39.70 $40 $37.25 $34.63 US$ Billions $30.94 $28.81 $30 $20 $10 $0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F Packaging 11.95 12.77 15.54 17.59 18.32 16.78 18.68 19.60 Fab 16.86 18.17 21.70 25.08 24.19 17.85 21.02 22.91 Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription February 2010 23
  • 24. SEMI® Materials Forecast By Market Region N. America Japan Taiwan Europe S.Korea China Southeast Asia $50 $45 $42.67 $42.52 $42.51 $39.70 $40 $37.25 $34.63 US$ Billions $35 $30 $28.82 $30.94 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009.00 2010F 2011F Southeast Asia 4.55 5.03 6.18 6.79 6.90 5.98 6.68 7.02 China 1.28 1.64 2.38 3.31 3.57 3.26 3.82 4.20 S.Korea 3.10 3.78 4.88 6.10 5.90 4.69 5.36 5.71 Europe 2.80 2.88 3.39 3.68 3.32 2.52 2.89 3.09 Taiwan 4.85 5.31 6.74 8.34 7.87 6.77 7.91 8.50 Japan 7.61 7.58 8.57 9.19 9.96 7.63 8.63 9.24 N. America 4.63 4.72 5.11 5.25 4.99 3.79 4.42 4.75 Totals may not add due to rounding. 24 Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription February 2010
  • 25. Summary • Fab Trends – Total fab investments could grow by over 80% in 2010 – -4% decline in installed capacity in 2009, and forecasting 6% or more capacity growth in 2010. • Semiconductor Equipment Market – -46% decline in 2009 – Spending could increase 80% or more in 2010 • Semiconductor Materials Market – 18% decline in 2009 – 2010 outlook to be in line with overall semiconductor market growth 25