SEMICON Korea 2010 - Market Brief
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SEMICON Korea 2010 - Market Brief

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An overview and outlook of the global semiconductor equipment and materials market. Also, includes a summary of the fab activities. ...

An overview and outlook of the global semiconductor equipment and materials market. Also, includes a summary of the fab activities.

This was presented at SEMICON Korea in Feb 2010 by Dan Tracy of SEMI U.S..

Additional Resources:
http://www.semi.org/fabs
http://www.semi.org/marketinfo

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SEMICON Korea 2010 - Market Brief SEMICON Korea 2010 - Market Brief Presentation Transcript

  • Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Outlook SEMICON KOREA 2010 Dan Tracy SEMI Industry Research & Statistics Group February 3, 2010 1
  • Outline Update on current market and forecast for, Industry Trends Semiconductor Equipment Semiconductor Materials Summary 2
  • 3 Source: Company reports NT$ Millions - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Jan-03 Mar-03 May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Monthly Sales Trends- Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 Outsourcing manufacturers May-07 Jul-07 (ASE, SPIL, TSMC, and UMC) Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Combined Monthly Revenues- 3 Mo. Avg. Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 View slide
  • 2010 Semiconductor Revenue Forecasts 22.4% Future Horizons (Dec 09) 22.0% Semico Research (Jan 10) 15.0% IC Insights (Jan 10) 14.0% VLSI Research (Dec 09) 13.0% Gartner (Nov 09) 12.2% WSTS (Jun 09) 10.4% Henderson Ventures (Jan 10) 10.2% SIA (Nov 09) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Source: SEMI 4 View slide
  • Front End Fabs Spending Spending in Front End Facilities US$ Billion (Construction + Equipping) Growth % 50 100% Taiwan 45 77% 80% 40 SE Asia 64% 66% 60% 35 S. Korea 40% 30 Japan 25 22% 20% 17% 10% Europe & 20 2% Mideast 0% -5% -6% China 15 -22% -20% 10 Americas -34% -42% -40% 5 Growth -49% 0 -60% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: SEMI World Fab Database (Nov. 2009) 5
  • Installed Capacity and Fabs closures Installed capacity vs. facilities closed 0.25 0 % change installed capacity 0.2 Number Facilities closed -10 0.15 -20 0.1 -30 0.05 -40 0 -50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -0.05 -60 -0.1 -70 Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, Nov. 2009 6
  • Installed Capacity by Region Worldwide Installed Capacity over Time In Millions in 200mm Equivalents Change in % 18 25.0% Taiwan 16 20.1% 20.0% 14 17.5% SE Asia 15.0% 12 13.6% 13.6% 14.1% S. Korea 13.2% 12.2% 10 9.7% 10.0% 8.9% Japan 7.0% 6.4% 8 6.0%6.0% 3.8% 4.4% 5.0% Europe & Mideast 6 0.0% China 4 -4.0% Americas -5.0% 2 Change 0 -10.0% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: SEMI World Fab Database, Nov 2009 7
  • Semiconductor Equipment 8
  • SEMI North America Book-to-Bill Ratio North American Headquartered Manufacturers Global Capital Equipment Book-to-Bill (based on three month averages) $1,200 $1,000 Bookings Billings US$ Millions $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 (f) Dec-09 (p) 1.15 Book-to-Bill Ratio 1.05 0.95 0.85 0.75 0.65 0.55 0.45 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 (f) Dec-09 (p) Source: SEMI December 2009 9
  • 10 US$ Billions $0.0 $1.0 $2.0 $3.0 $4.0 $5.0 $6.0 Jan-97 Apr-97 Jul-97 Oct-97 Jan-98 Apr-98 Source: SEMI/SEAJ December 2009 Jul-98 Oct-98 Jan-99 Apr-99 Jul-99 Oct-99 Jan-00 Apr-00 Jul-00 Oct-00 Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Billings Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Bookings Oct-04 Assembly) Equipment Trends Semiconductor Equipment Jan-05 (based on 3-month averages) Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Worldwide Bookings and Billings for Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Worldwide Semiconductor (Fab, Test & Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09
  • SEMI® 2009 Year-End Equipment Forecast By Market Region N. America Japan Taiwan Europe S.Korea China ROW $35 $31.22 $29.52 US$ Billions $30 $24.49 $25 $20 $16.03 $15 $10 $5 $0 2008 (A) 2009 (F) 2010 (F) 2011F ROW 2.61 1.40 2.31 2.96 China 1.89 1.05 1.87 2.56 S.Korea 4.89 2.95 4.47 5.90 Europe 2.45 1.01 1.87 2.15 Taiwan 5.01 4.04 5.92 7.76 Japan 7.04 2.25 3.64 4.50 N. America 5.63 3.33 4.41 5.39 Totals may not add due to rounding Source: SEMI 2009 Year-end Semiconductor Forecast, December 2009 11
  • SEMI® 2009 Year-End Equipment Forecast By Segment Wafer Process Assembly & Pack. Test Other $35 $31.22 $29.52 $30 $24.49 $25 US$ Billions $20 $16.03 $15 $10 $5 $0 2008 (A) 2009 (F) 2010 (F) 2011 (F) Other 2.00 1.14 1.63 2.02 Test 3.45 1.57 2.54 3.27 Assembly & Pack. 2.04 1.36 1.95 2.38 Wafer Process 22.03 11.95 18.37 23.55 Totals may not add due to rounding Source: SEMI 2009 Year-end Semiconductor Forecast, December 2009 12
  • Equipment Spending Trends Bar Charts Line Chart 30% $350 25% 24% $300 $247.7 $242.1 $262.3 20% 20% 20% $250 $255.6 20% US$ Billions $227.5 17% 17%17% 17%$213.0 17% $248.6 $219.6 16% 16% $200 15% 15% $149.4 14% 14% 13% 13% $137.2 $204.4 13%$166.6 12% 12% $150 $139.0 140.7 $ 10% $102.0 10% $144.4 $60.0 $77.0 $125.6 7% $132.0 $100 $55.0 5% $50 0% $0 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 20 8 20 F 20 F F 0 09 10 11 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Equipment Spending % of Semiconductor Revenue Semiconductor Revenue ($B) WSTS Source: SEMI and SIA November 2009 13
  • Semiconductor Materials 14
  • Leadframes- Shipments return to year ago levels Global Leadframe Shipments 18,000 16,000 14,000 Millions of Units 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Mar-06 May-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 May-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 May-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 May-09 Sep-09 IC Discrete Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription 15
  • Worldwide Wafer Fab Materials Forecast Actual Actual Forecast US$ Millions 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1 Silicon Wafers 12,830 11,924 7,229 9,010 10,052 Photomasks2 2,975 2,900 2,491 2,590 2,846 Photoresists 1,144 1,116 926 1,091 1,198 Photoresist Ancillaries3 1,219 1,225 1,144 1,350 1,483 4 Wet Chemicals 904 923 905 941 983 Gases 3,229 3,100 2,515 2,965 3,257 4 Sputter Targets 480 508 356 391 438 5 CMP Slurry & Pads 1,024 1,007 897 1,092 1,218 6 Other/New Materials 1,271 1,439 1,359 1,575 1,757 Total $25,076 $24,143 $17,822 $21,005 $23,232 % Growth -3.7% -26.2% 17.9% 10.6% Totals may not add due to rounding Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription November 2009 16
  • Wafer Fab Materials Forecast Notes 1. Silicon wafers include merchant sales value only; includes SOI wafers; no reclaim wafers 2. Includes captive market 3. Includes resist removal chemicals, developers, anti-reflective coatings, contrast enhancers, edge bead removers, adhesion promoters, etc. 4. Source is Techcet Group LLC, includes precious metals 5. Estimates for IC applications only 6. Includes low k dielectrics, copper plating solutions, dielectric precursors, organometallic precursors, etc. 7. All forecasts in current dollars 8. Source for all data is SEMI, unless otherwise indicated Source: SEMI November 2009 17
  • Worldwide Semiconductor Packaging Materials Forecasts Actual Forecast US$ Millions 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Leadframes $3,289 $3,013 $2,586 $2,908 $2,976 Organic Substrates1 6,656 7,586 6,967 7,674 8,255 Ceramic Packages 1,574 1,501 1,290 1,388 1,429 Encapsulation Resins 1,624 1,475 1,284 1,464 1,559 2 Bonding Wire 3,592 3,968 3,838 4,359 4,446 3 Die Attach Materials 612 588 582 650 682 Others4 242 193 179 207 233 $17,589 $18,324 $16,726 $18,650 $19,580 Total 4.2% -8.7% 11.5% 5.0% % Growth Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription November 2009 18
  • Semiconductor Packaging Materials Forecast Notes 1. Source is TechSearch International. Includes PBGA, PPGA, LGA, and CSP laminate substrates and flex BGA and CSP substrates 2. Assume gold value of $660/trz for 2007, $872/trz for 2008, $920 for 2009-2011 forecast period 3. Includes die attach film (tape) materials 4. Other includes solder balls and wafer level package dielectrics 5. Source for all data is SEMI, unless otherwise indicated 6. All forecasts in current dollars Source: SEMI November 2009 19
  • Global Silicon Wafer Outlook by Diameter 5,000 300 mm 4,500 Millions of Square Inches 4,000 200 mm 3,500 3,000 150 mm 100 mm 2,500 2,000 125 mm 75 mm 1,500 1,000 500 0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1995 1997 2000 2002 1987 1989 1991 1993 1996 1998 1999 2001 2008 1986 2007 2009F 2011F 1978 1980 1982 2003 2005 2010F 1979 1981 1983 1984 1985 2004 2006 Includes polished and epi wafers. Excludes reclaim, non polished, and SOI. 20 Source: Rose Associates 1978 to 1995; SEMI SMG 1995 to 2008; SEMI
  • Gold Bonding Wire- Clear Transition to Smaller Diameter % Share of Gold Wire Market by Diameter 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E >30 micron 25-30 micron <25 micron Source: SEMI and Techsearch International, Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook 21
  • Packaging Materials Outlook Segment 2008 2009 2010 2011 Organic Substrates 7,574 6,573 7,055 7,479 (K square meters) Leadframes 331 300 343 365 (billions of units) Bonding Wire 15.8 15.4 18.0 20.3 (billions of meters) Mold Compound 158.0 137.4 160.7 171.3 (millions of kg) Source: SEMI and Techsearch International, Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook 22
  • Materials Forecast By Segment Fab Packaging $50 $42.67 $42.47 $42.81 $39.66 $40 $34.55 US$ Billions $30 $20 $10 $0 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F Packaging 17.59 18.32 16.73 18.65 19.58 Fab 25.08 24.14 17.82 21.01 23.23 Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription November 2009 23
  • SEMI® 2009 Materials Forecast By Market Region N. America Japan Taiwan Europe S.Korea China Southeast Asia $50 $45 $42.67 $42.47 $42.81 $40 $39.65 US$ Billions $35 $34.55 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F Southeast Asia 6.79 6.90 5.99 6.74 7.12 China 3.31 3.57 3.26 3.80 4.16 S.Korea 6.10 5.90 4.71 5.44 5.92 Europe 3.68 3.29 2.47 2.86 3.08 Taiwan 8.34 7.90 6.76 7.85 8.55 Japan 9.19 9.98 7.67 8.69 9.34 N. America 5.25 4.93 3.68 4.27 4.63 Totals may not add due to rounding. 24 Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription November 2009
  • Summary • Fab Trends – Fab construction spending at lowest level in 15 years – Total fab spending to increase over 60% in 2010 – -4% decline in installed capacity in 2009, and forecasting 4% to 5% capacity increase in 2010. • Semiconductor Equipment Market – At the beginning of 2009, bookings fell to levels last reported in the early 1990s. – -46% decline in 2009 – +53% growth in 2010 and +28% growth in 2011 • Semiconductor Materials Market – 2009 forecasted to decline -19% – 2010 outlook to be inline with overall semiconductor market growth 25