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SEMICON Japan 2009 - Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Outlook
 

SEMICON Japan 2009 - Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Outlook

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An overview and forecast of the global semiconductor equipment and materials market. Also, includes a summary of the semiconductor packaging materials market. ...

An overview and forecast of the global semiconductor equipment and materials market. Also, includes a summary of the semiconductor packaging materials market.

This was presented at SEMICON Japan by Dan Tracy of SEMI Taiwan.

Additional Resources:
http://www.semi.org/fabs
http://www.semi.org/marketinfo

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    SEMICON Japan 2009 - Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Outlook SEMICON Japan 2009 - Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Outlook Presentation Transcript

    • Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Outlook Dan Tracy SEMI Industry Research & Statistics Group December 2, 2009 1 SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 2009
    • Outline Update on current market and forecast for, Semiconductor Equipment Semiconductor Materials Summary 2 SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 2009
    • 3 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 250 Jan-98 May-98 Sep-98 Jan-99 May-99 Sep-99 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Source: SEMI Silicon Manufacturers Group November 2009 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 (Three-month moving average) Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Silicon Area Shipment Index Worldwide Wafer Area Shipment Index Sep-06 SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 2009 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09
    • Semiconductor Equipment 4 SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 2009
    • Semiconductor Equipment Spending by Region Rest of Europe, Rest of Europe, World, 9% 8% World, 8% 7% China, 6% Japan, China, 6% Japan, 16% Taiwan, 24% 17% Taiwan, 23% North Korea, North America, 17% America, Korea, 25% 19% 15% 2008 Market Billings = $29.5B 2009 Year-to-date through September Market Billings = $10.2B Source: SEMI/SEAJ October 2009 5 SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 2009
    • SEMI North America Book-to-Bill Ratio North American Headquartered Manufacturers Global Capital Equipment Book-to-Bill (based on three month averages) $1,200 $1,000 US$ Millions $800 $600 $400 Bookings Billings $200 $0 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 (f) Oct-09 (p) 1.15 Book-to-Bill Ratio 1.05 0.95 0.85 0.75 0.65 0.55 0.45 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 (f) Oct-09 (p) Source: SEMI November 2009 6 SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 2009
    • SEAJ Japan Book-to-Bill Ratio Japanese Headquartered Manufacturers Global Capital Equipment Book-to-Bill (based on three month averages) $1,000 $800 US$ Millions $600 $400 $200 Bookings Billings $0 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 1.40 Book-to-Bill Ratio 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Source: SEAJ October 2009 7 SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 2009
    • 8 US$ Billions $0.0 $1.0 $2.0 $3.0 $4.0 $5.0 $6.0 Jan-97 Apr-97 Jul-97 Oct-97 Jan-98 Source: SEMI/SEAJ October 2009 Apr-98 Jul-98 Oct-98 Jan-99 Apr-99 Jul-99 Oct-99 Jan-00 Apr-00 Jul-00 Oct-00 Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Billings Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Bookings Assembly) Equipment Trends Semiconductor Equipment Jan-05 (based on 3-month averages) Apr-05 Jul-05 Worldwide Bookings and Billings for Oct-05 Jan-06 SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 2009 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Worldwide Semiconductor (Fab, Test & Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09
    • Orders- First year-over-year improvement since 1Q 2007 Equipment Order Trends 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% % Change 20% 0% 1Q 2007 2Q 2007 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 4Q 2008 1Q 2009 2Q 2009 3Q 2009 -20% -40% -60% -80% -100% Quarter-over-Quarter Year-over-Year Source: SEMI/SEAJ 9 SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 2009
    • SEMI® 2009 Year-End Equipment Forecast By Market Region N. America Japan Taiwan Europe S.Korea China ROW $35 $31.22 $29.52 US$ Billions $30 $24.49 $25 $20 $16.03 $15 $10 $5 $0 2008 (A) 2009 (F) 2010 (F) 2011F ROW 2.61 1.40 2.31 2.96 China 1.89 1.05 1.87 2.56 S.Korea 4.89 2.95 4.47 5.90 Europe 2.45 1.01 1.87 2.15 Taiwan 5.01 4.04 5.92 7.76 Japan 7.04 2.25 3.64 4.50 N. America 5.63 3.33 4.41 5.39 Totals may not add due to rounding Source: SEMI Mid-Year 2009 Semiconductor Consensus Forecast, December 2009 10 SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 2009
    • SEMI® 2009 Year-End Equipment Forecast By Segment Wafer Process Assembly & Pack. Test Other $35 $31.22 $29.52 $30 $24.49 $25 US$ Billions $20 $16.03 $15 $10 $5 $0 2008 (A) 2009 (F) 2010 (F) 2011 (F) Other 2.00 1.14 1.63 2.02 Test 3.45 1.57 2.54 3.27 Assembly & Pack. 2.04 1.36 1.95 2.38 Wafer Process 22.03 11.95 18.37 23.55 Totals may not add due to rounding Source: SEMI Mid-Year 2009 Semiconductor Consensus Forecast, December 2009 11 SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 2009
    • Equipment Spending Trends Bar Charts Line Chart 30% $350 25% 24% $300 $247.7 $242.1 $262.3 20% 20% 20% $250 $255.6 20% US$ Billions $227.5 17% 17%17% 17%$213.0 17% $248.6 $219.6 16% 16% $200 15% 15% $149.4 14% 14% 13% 13% $137.2 $204.4 13%$166.6 12% 12% $150 $139.0 140.7 $ 10% $102.0 10% $144.4 $60.0 $77.0 $125.6 7% $132.0 $100 $55.0 5% $50 0% $0 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 20 8 20 F 20 F F 0 09 10 11 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Equipment Spending % of Semiconductor Revenue Semiconductor Revenue ($B) WSTS Source: SEMI and SIA November 2009 12 SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 2009
    • Semiconductor Materials 13 SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 2009
    • Photoresist Market Trends $225 Global Revenues $US Millions $200 $175 $150 $125 $100 $75 $50 $25 $0 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 Advanced Positive Negative Source: SEMI CGMG November 2009 14 SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 2009
    • Anti-Reflective Coatings Markets Other Asia America Global Anti-Reflective Coatings Market 12% 16% $130 117 116 $120 Revenues $US Millions $110 104 100 Europe $100 95 8% 89 $90 Korea $80 22% $70 61 $60 $50 $40 $30 Japan $20 21% $10 $0 Taiwan 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 21% Source: SEMI CGMG November 2009 *Total may differ slightly due to rounding 2009 Market (year to date) = $256M 15 SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 2009
    • Leadframes- Shipments return to year ago levels Global Leadframe Shipments 18,000 16,000 14,000 Millions of Units 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Mar-06 May-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 May-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 May-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 May-09 Sep-09 IC Discrete Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription 16 SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 2009
    • Gold Bonding Wire- Clear Transition to Smaller Diameter % Share of Gold Wire Market by Diameter 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E >30 micron 25-30 micron <25 micron Source: SEMI and Techsearch International, Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook 17 SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 2009
    • Packaging Materials Outlook Segment 2008 2009 2010 2011 Organic Substrates 7,574 6,573 7,055 7,479 (K square meters) Leadframes 331 300 343 365 (billions of units) Bonding Wire 15.8 15.4 18.0 20.3 (billions of meters) Mold Compound 158.0 137.4 160.7 171.3 (millions of kg) Source: SEMI and Techsearch International, Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook 18 SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 2009
    • China Semiconductor Packaging Market Trends in China: Packaging houses - More than 15 companies are capable of substrate-based packaging technology - Seven bumping fabs with wafer size arranged from 125mm to 300mm - TSV for CIS is under mass production Packaging Materials - China is estimated to represent about 14% of the market in 2009 - Substrate drives the growth of packaging material market in the next several years - China headquartered packaging material suppliers have made progress in leadframe, bonding wire, mold compound, and solder ball area Source: SEMI China Semiconductor Packaging Market Overview 19 SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 2009
    • SEMI® 2009 Materials Forecast By Market Region N. America Japan Taiwan Europe S.Korea China Southeast Asia $50 $45 $42.47 $42.91 $39.69 $40 $34.50 US$ Billions $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F Southeast Asia 6.90 5.97 7.09 7.57 China 3.57 3.26 3.75 4.10 S.Korea 5.90 4.68 5.14 5.58 Europe 3.29 2.47 2.86 3.08 Taiwan 7.90 6.76 7.85 8.55 Japan 9.98 7.67 8.72 9.40 N. America 4.93 3.68 4.27 4.63 Totals may not add due to rounding. 20 Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription Novmeber 2009 SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 2009
    • Materials Forecast By Segment Fab Packaging $50 $42.47 $42.91 $39.69 $40 $34.50 US$ Billions $30 $20 $10 $0 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F Packaging 18.32 16.73 18.65 19.58 Fab 24.14 17.77 21.04 23.33 Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription November 2009 21 SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 2009
    • Summary • Unit shipment trends – Bottomed in January/February – Strong rebound into the third quarter • Semiconductor Equipment Market – At the beginning of 2009, bookings fell to levels last reported in the early 1990s. – Bookings are improving from this bottom – Market forecast • a -46% decline in 2009 • +53% growth in 2010 and +28% growth in 2011 • Semiconductor Materials Market – 2009 forecasted to decline -19% – 2010 outlook to be inline with overall semiconductor market growth 22 SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 2009