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[SEMI Theater] The U.S. PV Solar Market: Cleared for Takeoff
 

[SEMI Theater] The U.S. PV Solar Market: Cleared for Takeoff

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James Hines, Research Director, Gartner ...

James Hines, Research Director, Gartner

The PV market in the US appears to be poised for vibrant growth. But will it be able to overcome the uncertainty of future government support and a balkanized approach to energy policy? Mr. Hines draws upon the results of a recent Gartner survey to examine how enterprise and utility adoption of PV solar energy might drive growth in the US market in the coming years.

Presented at the SEMI Theater at SEMICON WEST on July 13, 2010.

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    [SEMI Theater] The U.S. PV Solar Market: Cleared for Takeoff [SEMI Theater] The U.S. PV Solar Market: Cleared for Takeoff Presentation Transcript

    • The US PV Solar Market: Cleared for Takeoff Jim Hines SEMICON/West July 13, 2010
    • Worldwide Demand for PV Modules Remains Strong Gigawatts Revenue US$ B 35 $35 $33 30 $30 $29 25 $25 $23 20 $19 $19 $20 $17 15 $14 29 $15 23 10 $10 18 13 5 10 $5 6 7 0 $0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Gartner June, 2010
    • US Will Be The Largest PV Market in 2014 PV Forecast by Region 100%  Germany will continue to 90% Other be a core PV market France Other 80% Italy  China and US will be the 70% Japan France key growth markets over China Italy 60% USA Japan the next 5 years 50% China  Government incentives 40% remain a core driver for USA the forecast period 30% Germany 20% 10% Germany 0% 2009 2014
    • There Is No United States PV Market There is the confederation of United States PV markets 3
    • US Market Foundations Recovering, But Utility Sector Remains the Swing Factor for 2010 US 2010 PV Market Demand Scenario (GW)  ITC, ARRA and 0.40 financing starting to Low High 0.35 solidify in the U.S. 0.30  U.S. PPA industry re- structured 0.25 0.20  Pipeline across sectors is ramping up 0.15  Utility projects may be 0.10 delayed into 2011 due 0.05 to permitting issues 0.00 Commercial Residential Gov / Acad / Utility Non Profit 4
    • Case Study: HP San Diego  1.2 MW PV system  PPA with SunPower – GE Finance owns system  Benefits – Saves costs – Aligns with CSR – Hedges future costs – Community relationships 5
    • Surveyed US Enterprises Showed Bias for Purchase of PV System Standard Request For Proposal (RFP) for purchasing the equipment 7% 7% 7% 9% 19% 35% 16% Standard RFP for a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) 7% 16% 16% 14% 23% 9% 14% Feed-in Tariff set by government body 19% 16% 16% 12% 19% 14% 2% 2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1. Not at all likely 2 3 4 5 6 7. Extremely likely Don't know 6
    • Multiple Influencers Can Modify or Kill a Utility Solar Project Utility Purchasing Process Framework Technology Renewable T&D Technology Planning Buyer Screen Screen Screen Screen Screen Needs Business Personal Decision Process Purchase Technical Operational Financial Renewable Traditional Champions Needed! 7
    • Multiple Influence Centers in the Utility Procurement Process for PV Solar The group that plans traditional energy generation 42% A special separate group that plans all renewable energy generation 24% An executive led ad-hoc group that is solely in charge of solar 19% photovoltaic initiatives A special separate group that plans all solar energy generation 17% The technology or research and development group 11% Another group within the organization 14% There is no specific group that plans for solar photovoltaic initiatives 10% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% n=91 Multiple responses allowed 8
    • US PV Solar Market: Ready to Take Off… If Conditions Remain Favorable  Drivers – Key federal incentives remain intact – Project finance funding is starting to flow – US enterprises still in early stages of adoption – Lower prices have made PV more attractive to utilities  Risks – Fragmented state and local policies – Economic concerns will test political support for renewable energy – Utility project permitting delays 9
    • Upcoming Gartner Solar Research  Competitive Landscape: PV Modules  Competitive Landscape: Solar PPA Providers  Hype Cycle: Solar Energy  Key Issues for Solar Energy  Toolkit: Decision Framework for Enterprise Use of On Site Solar Power  Competitive Landscape: Solar Inverters  Case Studies of PV Solar Implementations For more information: james.hines@gartner.com 10