WINNING THE FUTURE:
Understanding global trends in
business and community development
Hi, I’m your host,
Eric - let’s make some
money and WIN

Why we’re here
The old system of economic development is broken
That’s OK, it wasn’t working for NY State anyway
The next system will be local, connected, and smart
Let’s figure out how to WIN

What we will talk about
Methodology
Strategic trends:
Bubble versus real stuff
The next economic development
What this means - and what to do

HOW TO WIN! NEW YORK STATE EDITION

HOW TO WIN! NEW YORK STATE EDITION
Create genetically-modified race of
carnivorous squirrels; release on Wall Street

HOW TO WIN! NEW YORK STATE EDITION
Create genetically-modified race of
carnivorous squirrels; release on Wall Street
Invade Canada; take their trees and oil

HOW TO WIN! NEW YORK STATE EDITION
Create genetically-modified race of
carnivorous squirrels; release on Wall Street
Invade Canada; take their trees and oil
Stop using U.S. dollar; create maple syrup-
backed currency with Vermont. Secede.

APPLYING THE FUTURE TO
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Assets Activities Development Managerial Strategic
(Strengths) (Businesses) (Projects) trends trends
Today 2009 - 2014 2014 2029

The Future Intelligence Method
5 – 15 years
1 – 5 yrs.
Today
Major
demographic
Competitive shifts
product
Stock
launches
performance
Technology
revolutions
Industry
Sales data dynamics
Political
movements
Regulatory
Personnel response
retention Infrastructure
Consumer investment/
preferences collapse

What to do with future intelligence
5 – 15 years
1 – 5 yrs.
Today
Hire new people
Plan for loss of talented Aging populations
workforce?
Global climate
Upcoming restrictive change
Launch new environmental
business Disruptive
legislation? technologies
Emergence of “world- Globalization
class” Asian industries?
Form partnership

APPLYING THE FUTURE TO ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
Is the future trying to
tell us something? Managerial Strategic
trends trends
Today 2009 - 2014 2014 2029

NONE OF THIS MATTERS WITHOUT A GOAL
What is winning to YOU?

EXECUTIVES:
There is only one fundamental question today:
Is this incremental or is this transformative
adjustment... change?

THE CHANGE IS
TRANSFORMATIVE
ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT WILL
NEVER BE THE SAME
(IT MAY ACTUALLY
BE BETTER)

What’s a bubble and what’s a strategic trend
THE BUBBLE: THE REAL TRENDS:
Education Water
shortage Infotech
Housing increases in
power
Retail Talent crisis
Credit
Aging

THE BUBBLE
Education
Housing
Retail Credit

Why we’re taking a trip to the YEAR 1998
Derived from
debt alone
FLAT from
here on

MASSIVELY EXTENDED CREDIT.
Just in the United States.
Housing, leveraged
business deals, Iraq
spending, credit
cards, student loans
Great depression,
New Deal

Debt vs. GDP

The housing sector will collapse,
or inflation will rise to meet it

U.S. retail glut likely to collapse
30
22.5
20.2
15
7.5
3.3
2.5 2.3
1.1
0
U.S. Sweden U.K. France Italy
Source:
Square footage retail per person Shopping Centers Today

Commercial real estate to collapse
(actually, just its value)
Funny growth, given our GDP remaing
flat, wages staying flat, moving
manufacturing base to Asia

Education prices, fueled by debt,
will drop or lose enrollment

THE REAL TRENDS
Water shortage Infotech increases in power
Talent crisis
Aging

Aging populations

Healthcare budgets will explode:
U.S. expenditures from $2 trillion to $4 trillion
That stings a
little...
Well, I’m
sucking
$400,000
out of your
blood.

Talent crunch - YES, STILL

Cities to create even more GDP;
Rural areas left behind
Cities will have 52% of the population,
90% of the GDP by 2015

Immigration of billions of young people

Infotech: More powerful, radically cheaper (still!)

Energy still scarce, even with recession
Over capacity = Barely over capacity:
stable speculation, price fluctuation

Energy still scarce, even with recession

Water scarce around the world
Andalucia
Ogalalla Near East:
Acquifer Jordan, Syria,
Israel – drinking
from the same
aquifer!
China - $11
billion in lost
manufacturing
due to
polluted water!
Egypt
Mexico city
Subsaharan
Africa
N.S.W.
Australia

THE ERA OF GROWTH AT ALL COSTS IS OVER

THE FUTURE IS LOCAL

THE FUTURE IS FIXING WHAT WE HAVE

THE FUTURE IS FIXING WHAT WE HAVE

THE FUTURE IS FIXING WHAT WE HAVE
Bilbao, Spain Cattaragus Creek
(former hellhole) restored waterway

THE FUTURE IS ENTREPRENEURIAL
Keeps young minds, values
older workers
Exploits knowledge economy
Prefers smart, small over big

Managerial Trends Strategic
Strengths Businesses Projects
2014 trends 2029
??? Hyper-Inflation
Aging
History Chemicals
International
finance bankrupt Knowledge economy
Proximity to
industry Tourism Raw materials Federal debt
price fluctuation
??? Immigration
Collapse of national
Manufacturing retailers
Talent crunch
??? End of
suburbanization Climate change
Agriculture
??? Drop in asset Infotech more
values powerful,
Finance available, cheap
Boomers retire
???
Healthcare destroyed
Research or close
Telework
Biotech More home
businesses
Today 2009 - 2014 2014 2029

Let’s stay in touch and really discuss this
• Forum: competitivefutures.ning.com
Thanks for • Twitter: @ericgarland
coming!
• Blog: www.competitivefutures.com/
blog
• Phone: 202.508.1496
• In person: 1317 F St. NW, Washington
DC, about a block from the guys giving
away nine trillion dollars