WINNING THE FUTURE: Understanding global trends in business and community development

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    WINNING THE FUTURE: Understanding global trends in business and community development - Presentation Transcript

    1. WINNING THE FUTURE: Understanding global trends in business and community development Hi, I’m your host, Eric - let’s make some money and WIN
    2. Why we’re here The old system of economic development is broken That’s OK, it wasn’t working for NY State anyway The next system will be local, connected, and smart Let’s figure out how to WIN
    3. What we will talk about Methodology Strategic trends: Bubble versus real stuff The next economic development What this means - and what to do
    4. HOW TO WIN! NEW YORK STATE EDITION
    5. HOW TO WIN! NEW YORK STATE EDITION Create genetically-modified race of carnivorous squirrels; release on Wall Street
    6. HOW TO WIN! NEW YORK STATE EDITION Create genetically-modified race of carnivorous squirrels; release on Wall Street Invade Canada; take their trees and oil
    7. HOW TO WIN! NEW YORK STATE EDITION Create genetically-modified race of carnivorous squirrels; release on Wall Street Invade Canada; take their trees and oil Stop using U.S. dollar; create maple syrup- backed currency with Vermont. Secede.
    8. APPLYING THE FUTURE TO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Assets Activities Development Managerial Strategic (Strengths) (Businesses) (Projects) trends trends Today 2009 - 2014 2014 2029
    9. The Future Intelligence Method 5 – 15 years 1 – 5 yrs. Today Major demographic Competitive shifts product Stock launches performance Technology revolutions Industry Sales data dynamics Political movements Regulatory Personnel response retention Infrastructure Consumer investment/ preferences collapse
    10. What to do with future intelligence 5 – 15 years 1 – 5 yrs. Today Hire new people Plan for loss of talented Aging populations workforce? Global climate Upcoming restrictive change Launch new environmental business Disruptive legislation? technologies Emergence of “world- Globalization class” Asian industries? Form partnership
    11. APPLYING THE FUTURE TO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Is the future trying to tell us something? Managerial Strategic trends trends Today 2009 - 2014 2014 2029
    12. NONE OF THIS MATTERS WITHOUT A GOAL What is winning to YOU?
    13. EXECUTIVES: There is only one fundamental question today: Is this incremental or is this transformative adjustment... change?
    14. THE CHANGE IS TRANSFORMATIVE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT WILL NEVER BE THE SAME (IT MAY ACTUALLY BE BETTER)
    15. What’s a bubble and what’s a strategic trend THE BUBBLE: THE REAL TRENDS: Education Water shortage Infotech Housing increases in power Retail Talent crisis Credit Aging
    16. THE BUBBLE Education Housing Retail Credit
    17. Why we’re taking a trip to the YEAR 1998 Derived from debt alone FLAT from here on
    18. MASSIVELY EXTENDED CREDIT. Just in the United States. Housing, leveraged business deals, Iraq spending, credit cards, student loans Great depression, New Deal
    19. Debt vs. GDP
    20. The housing sector will collapse, or inflation will rise to meet it
    21. U.S. retail glut likely to collapse 30 22.5 20.2 15 7.5 3.3 2.5 2.3 1.1 0 U.S. Sweden U.K. France Italy Source: Square footage retail per person Shopping Centers Today
    22. Commercial real estate to collapse (actually, just its value) Funny growth, given our GDP remaing flat, wages staying flat, moving manufacturing base to Asia
    23. Education prices, fueled by debt, will drop or lose enrollment
    24. THE REAL TRENDS Water shortage Infotech increases in power Talent crisis Aging
    25. Aging populations
    26. Healthcare budgets will explode: U.S. expenditures from $2 trillion to $4 trillion That stings a little... Well, I’m sucking $400,000 out of your blood.
    27. Talent crunch - YES, STILL
    28. Cities to create even more GDP; Rural areas left behind Cities will have 52% of the population, 90% of the GDP by 2015
    29. Immigration of billions of young people
    30. Infotech: More powerful, radically cheaper (still!)
    31. Energy still scarce, even with recession Over capacity = Barely over capacity: stable speculation, price fluctuation
    32. Energy still scarce, even with recession
    33. Water scarce around the world Andalucia Ogalalla Near East: Acquifer Jordan, Syria, Israel – drinking from the same aquifer! China - $11 billion in lost manufacturing due to polluted water! Egypt Mexico city Subsaharan Africa N.S.W. Australia
    34. THE ERA OF GROWTH AT ALL COSTS IS OVER
    35. THE FUTURE IS LOCAL
    36. THE FUTURE IS FIXING WHAT WE HAVE
    37. THE FUTURE IS FIXING WHAT WE HAVE
    38. THE FUTURE IS FIXING WHAT WE HAVE Bilbao, Spain Cattaragus Creek (former hellhole) restored waterway
    39. THE FUTURE IS ENTREPRENEURIAL Keeps young minds, values older workers Exploits knowledge economy Prefers smart, small over big
    40. Managerial Trends Strategic Strengths Businesses Projects 2014 trends 2029 ??? Hyper-Inflation Aging History Chemicals International finance bankrupt Knowledge economy Proximity to industry Tourism Raw materials Federal debt price fluctuation ??? Immigration Collapse of national Manufacturing retailers Talent crunch ??? End of suburbanization Climate change Agriculture ??? Drop in asset Infotech more values powerful, Finance available, cheap Boomers retire ??? Healthcare destroyed Research or close Telework Biotech More home businesses Today 2009 - 2014 2014 2029
    41. Let’s stay in touch and really discuss this • Forum: competitivefutures.ning.com Thanks for • Twitter: @ericgarland coming! • Blog: www.competitivefutures.com/ blog • Phone: 202.508.1496 • In person: 1317 F St. NW, Washington DC, about a block from the guys giving away nine trillion dollars

    + Eric GarlandEric Garland, 6 months ago

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