THINK FAST!
Using CI for business development
in a time of transformative change
Eric Garland

FORESIGHT 101
STRUCTURAL + ACTOR + WILDCARD EVENTS
FACTORS DECISIONS

The big question:
Is this business-as-usual?

...or is
something
entirely
new
happening?

Competitive intelligence career hint:
Nobody wants more bad news Go jump in a
lake.
Tell me how to fix
this mess or get out
of my office.
Hey, by the way, 30
of the 50 states
declared bankruptcy
today!

Considerably
more popular:
Intelligence
Look, when our
professionals who competitors went bankrupt,
look for new 200 of their best engineers
went looking for new work -
opportunities along an opportunity for HR?
with competitive
threats

Our challenge!
Use the methodology of competitive intelligence to seek
out profitable new business in a rapidly changing world

ON THE CUSP OF MAJOR,
ONCE IN A LIFETIME
CHANGE

TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE:
Horrific national retail sprawl to finally collapse

TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE:
Population of senior citizens to double

TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE:
Replacing a workforce of 70 million with one of 30 million

TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE
Two billion more people in economically
under-developed countries

TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE:
Water will become more important than oil
Andalucia
Ogalalla Near East:
Acquifer Jordan, Syria,
Israel –
drinking from
the same
aquifer!
China - $11
billion in lost
manufacturing
due to
polluted water!
Egypt
Mexico city
Subsaharan
Africa
N.S.W.
Australia

TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE:
Shift from the country to the
city almost complete:
52% of the population
90% of the GDP

TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE:
U.S. healthcare expenditure from $2 trillion -> $4 trillion
That stings a
little...
Well, I’m
sucking
$400,000 out
of your blood.

EXERCISES!
1. Pick your favorite transformative trend
2. Talk about all the people who will be affected, for
good, bad or indifferent
3. Think about what they will need, want, dislike, etc.
4. Imagine a business that could be formed around this
5. Extra points: Say which companies are best poised
to create those businesses - or if they need to be
start-ups

THANK YOU!
Eric Garland
Competitive Futures, Inc.
1317 F St. NW Wash, DC 20004
www.competitivefutures.com
(202) 508-1496