THE FUTURE OF NATURAL
RESOURCE SCARCITY

THIS MONTH’S ISSUE
Why We chose…
RESOURCE SCARCITY
Here at Competitive Futures, we like to think about real
disruptions to industry, not just whether the next iPhone will
make waffles.
Since ecological sustainability is such a hot topic these days, we
wanted to know if there is any validity to the assertion that
global industry is “raping the planet of its resources.” In the
Future Intelligence Method, we take nothing for granted until we
check the trends, and so our questions for this STEEP Report
were:
•Which resources are we depleting?
•What do we have in reliable quantity for the next 25 – 100
years?
•When might we run out?
•What does it mean for business?
For the purposes of this report, we are not interested in pollution
and global warming – those are equally valid issues, but the
question at hand is purely about which resources maybe
become scarce in the mid- to long-term future.

OIL AND WATER.
The only resources we are likely to lack in the next fifty years are the two substances for which there is little
substitute – petroleum and water. Your business will change as we seek substitutes for oil, and attempt to
conserve water.
Industry is not going to end due to a lack of natural resources anytime in the foreseeable future. The global warming
trends are disturbing, pollution is still ugly (smell the air in Beijing!) but most industrial resources will be around long
after you’ve retired.
Only two resources are at risk, and for different reasons – oil and water. There is plenty of oil in the earth’s crust to
supply the world for decades – the problem is in skyrocketing global demand causing shortages that could make prices
fluctuate wildly.
Water is far more disturbing an issue – it’s actually running out around the world. The world needs to work together
to plan to conserve this vital resource, especially as Asian economies develop and the climate appears to fluctuate.
Ask yourself if your business could be at risk from these shortages (and don’t forget about pollution.)

The Trends

Major resources, 2007 – 2027: the one page update.