How to Spot and Cope with Emerging Transitions in Complex Systems for Organizational Stability

How to Spot and Cope with
Emerging Transitions in
Complex Systems for
Organizational Stability

A Complimentary Webinar from Aurora WDC
12:00 Noon Eastern /// Wednesday 20 March 2013

~ featuring ~

Eric Garland Dr. Craig Fleisher

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Eric Garland works with leaders about how to
manage big changes to the global economy. He
also plays bass.

Connect with Eric via:
Twitter: @ericgarland
Web: http://www.ericgarland.co
Web: http://www.transitionistas.com
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/
EricGarlandFuture
Eric Garland Email: Eric@Ericgarland.co
Author, analyst, curmudgeon

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AGENDA

n Defining “The Transition” and why it is
changing intelligence so radically

n Suggested tools for advanced organizational
understanding

n Q&A

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MANAGING THE POST-GROWTH ERA
n One of the biggest problems in our managerial
environment is a secular end to the growth of
consumption in our economies

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MANAGING THE POST-GROWTH ERA

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Intelligence: Then and now

n We understand the narrative, we misunderstand the
details
 Narrative: Economic growth, globalization
 Details (unknown): Individual competitors

n We understand (some) details, we misunderstand the
narrative
 Details: competitor behavior that looks similar
 Narrative: ??? Post-growth? Knowledge economy?
Singularity? Yard sales? What?

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INTELLECTUAL ENVIRONMENT

n The shock from this economic change has a significant
intellectual impact – a Crisis of Authority
 To whom should we listen, and why?
 Who can predict accurately – and should we
base major decisions on their speculation?
n Old problem: paucity of information
n New problem: paucity of analysis

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AUTHORITIES AT WORK

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AUTHORITARIAN INTELLIGENCE

n The age of authoritarian intelligence was predicated on STABILITY
Assumed non-stop growth (except for business cycle
recessions)
Assumed “best practices” that could be applied across
industries and companies of all types

n Last Gen intelligence was based on institutional authority
One intelligence source with “executive buy-in”
Reporting structure made to look like media authorities

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LAST GEN INTELLIGENCE FAILS

n They say “nobody could see it coming” because of
failure of structure, not of analysis in general

n Last Gen analysis fails at several levels
Models are built around 1980s competition and 1990s
risk (“competitors” and “disruption”)
Reporting structures have insufficient authority to drive
decision making through “brute force”
Bureacracies designed to insulate people from failure,
not sensitize them to failure

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NEXT GENERATION ANALYSIS

n The next generation of intelligence must drive
companies to manage the emergence of opportunities
and threats in a complex, dynamic system

n Next Gen Analysis will require
Post-authoritarian view
Peer to peer structure
One-size-fits-one
Iterative metrics – constant analysis of “is this
driving value?”
Accountability, not blame

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BROAD THINKING STILL RULES

n Threats and opportunities continue to come from disruptions not
typically included in Porterian competitive models

n GOOD OL’ STEEP:
Social: changing consumer values, generational differences
Technological: product substitutions (This is still Porter!)
Economics: Wealth inequality, wage suppression, systemic
breakdown (Europe, Japan, U.S.)
Ecological: unpredictable climate scenarios (New York underwater,
etc.)
Politics: Unrest (Arab Spring), policy shifts (Estonia, Haiti),
geopolitical tension (Iran, Pakistan, Central Asia)

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FORGET AUTHORITY, CHERISH THE ANALYST

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TRACK DISRUPTIONS BEYOND THE “NEWS CYCLE”

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DEBATES TRUMP REPORTS

WRONG WRONG,
BUT MIGHT GET LESS WRONG
OVER TIME

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VALUE DRIVEN INTELLIGENCE STRUCTURE

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CEO CIO

CEO

Design

INTEL Consultants

When you need to add value
All the time to a speciﬁc project

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How to Spot and Cope with Emerging Transitions in Complex Systems for Organizational Stability

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