Eric Garland:  Future Intelligence What Every Executive Should Know About Future Trends –  And How to Profit from Them
“ The closer you are to a  position of responsibility,  the further away the future can seem”  -Erik Peterson Center for S...
Today’s Agenda Discover strategic forecasting and how it can  help you as an executive Learn to turn disparate trends into...
Future Intelligence 101- What every executive should know about how to manage future trends – and profit <ul><li>What is  ...
The Future Intelligence Cycle 5 – 20 year view World of trends, forces and possibilities Problems perceived, decisions mad...
I know I need to study the future to make  good strategy… … but it’s got to be  actionable. What Does  Future Intelligence...
The Tragic Case of the  Record Industry Reckless teens, dangerous new technologies,  and helpless record executives
Meet Brianna LaHara   Honor student Music lover New Yorker
Meet Brianna LaHara   Honor student Music lover Sued Sept. 3, 2003 by the Record Industry Association of America for aroun...
Sales plummeting Terrible PR New business models Could we have anticipated this? The State of the Music Industry  in 2003
For a different perspective,  let’s go back to 1991 Warsaw Pact ends   Gulf War I   Apartheid ends   Magic Johnson HIV+   ...
Also happening in 1991: Tim Berners-Lee outlines vision for the “World Wide Web,” based on an idea he came up with at CERN...
There are a number of ways this digital thing could turn out. Not all good. What could you have told management in 1991? S...
Steps to adding the future to  strategic planning <ul><li>Systems thinking </li></ul><ul><li>Trend analysis </li></ul><ul>...
You never make strategic plans alone. The future is an interconnected system of trends.
Systemic view of the music industry Artist development Consumer tastes Distribution Markets & Channels Competing Forms of ...
TREND ANALYSIS: Some key trends in 1991 <ul><li>Computers becoming consumer driven, more interconnected </li></ul><ul><li>...
Strategic implications: (Or, asking “So what?”) <ul><li>Within the next 5 -15 years, music will become a digital good  </l...
<ul><li>Strategic implications:   </li></ul><ul><li>Rapid drop in sales </li></ul><ul><li>Artists angry over our inability...
Scenario #2: “Digi-tunes” <ul><li>Strategic implications:  </li></ul><ul><li>Moving away from retail outlet of distributio...
Scenario #3: “First All Digital Band” <ul><li>Strategic implications:  </li></ul><ul><li>Our marketing methods may become ...
Scenario #4: “On defense” <ul><li>Strategic Implications:   </li></ul><ul><li>Falling sales </li></ul><ul><li>Terrible pub...
It won’t change tomorrow, but we should think about these transitions now! If they had looked ahead, maybe record companie...
A  future intelligence system 5 – 15 years <ul><li>Aging populations </li></ul><ul><li>Global climate change </li></ul><ul...
Best practices for  Future Intelligence <ul><li>Demand intelligence </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Establish a system to feed you t...
Questions!
Executive Education – Consulting – Research - Speaking Eric Garland http://www.competitivefutures.com [email_address] 1317...
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Eric Garland Future Intelligence

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Transcript of "Eric Garland Future Intelligence"

  1. 1. Eric Garland: Future Intelligence What Every Executive Should Know About Future Trends – And How to Profit from Them
  2. 2. “ The closer you are to a position of responsibility, the further away the future can seem” -Erik Peterson Center for Strategic International Studies
  3. 3. Today’s Agenda Discover strategic forecasting and how it can help you as an executive Learn to turn disparate trends into scenarios Design intelligence systems that allow for long-term and short term perspective
  4. 4. Future Intelligence 101- What every executive should know about how to manage future trends – and profit <ul><li>What is Future Intelligence ? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Scanning long-term shifts in society and technology and picking up threats and opportunities while there is still time to transform our organizations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Taking an organized rational approach to a universe of change </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Why do executives practice this? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Big, slow moving organizations NEED TIME to change </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What value does it bring? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A systems view of our industries </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Challenge to our assumptions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Early warning, innovative ideas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A sense of our role in history </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. The Future Intelligence Cycle 5 – 20 year view World of trends, forces and possibilities Problems perceived, decisions made New approaches undertaken Execution of strategy is measured 1 – 5 year plan Making the case to change today’s practices
  6. 6. I know I need to study the future to make good strategy… … but it’s got to be actionable. What Does Future Intelligence Look Like?
  7. 7. The Tragic Case of the Record Industry Reckless teens, dangerous new technologies, and helpless record executives
  8. 8. Meet Brianna LaHara Honor student Music lover New Yorker
  9. 9. Meet Brianna LaHara Honor student Music lover Sued Sept. 3, 2003 by the Record Industry Association of America for around $150,000 per illegally downloaded song New Yorker
  10. 10. Sales plummeting Terrible PR New business models Could we have anticipated this? The State of the Music Industry in 2003
  11. 11. For a different perspective, let’s go back to 1991 Warsaw Pact ends Gulf War I Apartheid ends Magic Johnson HIV+ “ Motorist” Rodney King Vermont almost secedes
  12. 12. Also happening in 1991: Tim Berners-Lee outlines vision for the “World Wide Web,” based on an idea he came up with at CERN in 1980. Sen. Al Gore (D-TN) holds hearings for the “National High-Performance Computer Technology Act,” adding $1 billion in federal support for “The Internet.” Compact discs, a digital music medium, surpass tape cassettes for the first time.
  13. 13. There are a number of ways this digital thing could turn out. Not all good. What could you have told management in 1991? Surely we haven’t got that much to worry about.
  14. 14. Steps to adding the future to strategic planning <ul><li>Systems thinking </li></ul><ul><li>Trend analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Forecast assessment </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic implications </li></ul><ul><li>Scenario generation </li></ul><ul><li>Communications </li></ul>
  15. 15. You never make strategic plans alone. The future is an interconnected system of trends.
  16. 16. Systemic view of the music industry Artist development Consumer tastes Distribution Markets & Channels Competing Forms of Entertainment
  17. 17. TREND ANALYSIS: Some key trends in 1991 <ul><li>Computers becoming consumer driven, more interconnected </li></ul><ul><li>Processing, memory and connectivity increasing every year </li></ul><ul><li>Music itself has become digital – CDs are now the biggest selling medium </li></ul>
  18. 18. Strategic implications: (Or, asking “So what?”) <ul><li>Within the next 5 -15 years, music will become a digital good </li></ul><ul><li>At the same time, digital communication between computers will go from just laboratories big companies to our homes. </li></ul><ul><li>Record companies must prepare for a digital model of music in which music transcends the physical medium and becomes a virtual, cyber-service. </li></ul>
  19. 19. <ul><li>Strategic implications: </li></ul><ul><li>Rapid drop in sales </li></ul><ul><li>Artists angry over our inability to protect their royalties </li></ul><ul><li>Radio stations shut down </li></ul>“ Hey man, I made you a ‘mix disk’ on my PC. It’s my 3000 favorite songs!” Scenario #1: “Music is free”
  20. 20. Scenario #2: “Digi-tunes” <ul><li>Strategic implications: </li></ul><ul><li>Moving away from retail outlet of distribution </li></ul><ul><li>Could be high number of digital retailers – lower barrier to entry </li></ul><ul><li>Record companies need vastly improved computer infrastructure </li></ul>“ I don’t feel like going to the mall. Let’s use the computer to have the record company just send the “tune file.”
  21. 21. Scenario #3: “First All Digital Band” <ul><li>Strategic implications: </li></ul><ul><li>Our marketing methods may become obsolete </li></ul><ul><li>Smaller record labels could compete with giants </li></ul><ul><li>Word of mouth could become more important than mass media </li></ul>“ Hey man, let’s go to the CyberBombers show! No, I don’t have a record by them. Their music is only available on the computer system.”
  22. 22. Scenario #4: “On defense” <ul><li>Strategic Implications: </li></ul><ul><li>Falling sales </li></ul><ul><li>Terrible public relations move </li></ul><ul><li>Kids look to video games for entertainment </li></ul>“ You there! Stop using those new computer technologies! We ’ re suing you for breaching intellectual property laws!!! ”
  23. 23. It won’t change tomorrow, but we should think about these transitions now! If they had looked ahead, maybe record companies wouldn’t have ended up suing their customers… Wow, you’re right - let’s embrace this change! Great strategic thinking!
  24. 24. A future intelligence system 5 – 15 years <ul><li>Aging populations </li></ul><ul><li>Global climate change </li></ul><ul><li>Disruptive technologies </li></ul><ul><li>Globalization </li></ul>1 – 5 yrs. <ul><li>Plan for loss of talented workforce? </li></ul><ul><li>Upcoming restrictive environmental legislation? </li></ul><ul><li>Emergence of “world-class” Asian industries? </li></ul>Today Hire new people Launch new business Form partnership
  25. 25. Best practices for Future Intelligence <ul><li>Demand intelligence </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Establish a system to feed you trends and what they mean </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Generate ideas </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Get your teams to create and collect ideas about threats and opportunities </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Make the case for change </li></ul><ul><ul><li>When a shift is on the horizon, communicate what, how, when and why throughout the organization </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Take a risk </li></ul><ul><ul><li>It’s showtime – invest, create, launch, merge, and do something ahead of the competition </li></ul></ul>
  26. 26. Questions!
  27. 27. Executive Education – Consulting – Research - Speaking Eric Garland http://www.competitivefutures.com [email_address] 1317 F St. NW Suite 920 Washington, DC 20004 (202) 508-1496

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